Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14

[Boro Snow]

These two models are the cannon fodder though Nick!

the JMA is respected by the met office so i would not call it cannon fodder

[nick sussex]

These two models are the cannon fodder though Nick!

Yes that's why they're outlier solutions but in terms of synoptics as an example especially the NAVGEM shows how the Arctic high could help.

 

The actual differences start early at T120hrs, at that point both the ECM and UKMO are past the tipping point , keep an eye out for the ECM ensembles because we can see clearly how many at T120 are likely to go down the Arctic high route.

[492]

Encouraging ECM tonight maintaining the trend (3 runs now) to an increasingly chilly easterly later in the week with low pressure maintained to the south of the UK.

[blizzard81]

Yes that's why they're outlier solutions but in terms of synoptics as an example especially the NAVGEM shows how the Arctic high could help.

 

The actual differences start early at T120hrs, at that point both the ECM and UKMO are past the tipping point , keep an eye out for the ECM ensembles because we can see clearly how many at T120 are likely to go down the Arctic high route.

Yes, looking forward to the ECM ensembles tonight.

[nick sussex]

Yes, looking forward to the ECM ensembles tonight.

This is a good link for the actual synoptics of all ECM ensembles upto T120hrs, it used to go upto T168hrs before the ECM powers that be stinged out.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa%21168%21pop%21od%21enfo%21enplot%212009112700%21%21

[IDO]

Some nice cold charts on the 12z GEFS tonight. Obviously the usual caveats apply and need to see a trend for this before we get interested but they offer real cold:

 

  

 

They all have one thing in common, at D10 they all show a HLB and are the only members that really excite in that direction. So probably background noise similar to GEM  a few runs back. It shows that if we do get that WAA then things can turn very quickly. 

 

There is another good cluster out in FI, that are not quite as cold but with some good blocking potential. So a step back in the right direction from the GEFS, but this too-ing and throwing is the current modus operandi and it may just be the models misreading the FI signal. We shall see.

[legritter]

I can only Mirror what many posters are saying ,We are in a good position and different to last year .And i would like to add that high pressure somewhere to our north [or a north in the positioning whether its N/E NORTH or N/west and low pressure somewhere to our south in my thinking, Money in the pot .but probably dozens of different Synoptic possibilitys could be the outcome .looking at tonights Data gradually sees some lowering 850 mb temp which again warms the cockles of my heart and a pressure change is always exciting ,but caution as we are all aware ,steady as she goes and lets see what tomorrow brings .Tonights late FAX charts could give us a clue ,Nice to see the Frost today ,instead of Mild Mush ,  

[Duane S.]

No surprise to see GEFS starting to bring in more and more runs that we want to see in far FI, with the mean dropping below 0 more regularly>>>

Will it be a trend or a blip???

[Barry12]

The trend of the block getting stronger in the reliable time frame has continued today, with both the ECM and UKMO having us in an Easterly airflow at just day 4!

 

 

[IDO]

Cohen winter temp anomaly (not sure if it has been posted yet):

 

 

Certainly a lot more promising temp wise for England than last year's effort!

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening all. Tonights ouput from both ecm and the gfs p shows a standoff from east and west. The gfs p shows more of an Atlantic regime at times along with some cold rpm air early  next week, the ecm is not so keen. I think the mist and foggy output from the models now. may be clearer come midweek, Of course at some point , the east and west battle will be won!

[bluearmy]

Gefs anomolys consistent end week 2 on delivering a sinking trough with high anomolys linking over the top.

it may seem unlikely but it's not just popping up out of nowhere. Ecm extended yet to show this .

[ITSY]

just seen the GEFS suite. Following from the midnight 00Z, an interesting ECMop, an interesting NAVGEM and yesterday's cold GEM, my optimistic nerves just twitched! A long way from anything resembling certainty, but signs of a possible shift - albeit one still less probable than the continuation of the status quo on the balance of cross-model, ensemble and prevailing patterns. Let's watch this space though, this is where things get interesting whatever the outcome.

[Frosty.]

I'm pleased to see the models showing a colder outlook at last, this is reinforced by the MO update today mentioning temperatures falling below average across the south and east which is a big step in the right direction as far as I'm concerned. Don't worry about the extended outlook because as this new signal strengthens, I'm sure it will change to something more decidedly wintry later. I tend to treat the met office longer range outlook like the models do in the T+384 plus range..it looks like the new month will bring a more seasonal flavour with increased incidence of frosts, freezing fog and wintry ppn..here's hoping guys :-)

Edited November 24, 2014 by Frosty.

[Captain Shortwave]

This is a good link for the actual synoptics of all ECM ensembles upto T120hrs, it used to go upto T168hrs before the ECM powers that be stinged out.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa%21168%21pop%21od%21enfo%21enplot%212009112700%21%21

The ECM can try again though at produce a surface chart which doesn't result in days of heavy rain for the south east. The river here has already burst its banks. 

I would personally take a surface high at the moment with the frost and fog it would bring as opposed to a chilly easterly and lots of rain.

Hopefully the ens will back a more settled scenario as opposed to the op.

A little better surface wise

Across the pole, there are weak heights which keep the Greenland and Siberian lobes separate.

Edited November 24, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Nouska]

The ECM can try again though at produce a surface chart which doesn't result in days of heavy rain for the south east. The river here has already burst its banks. 

I would personally take a surface high at the moment with the frost and fog it would bring as opposed to a chilly easterly and lots of rain.

Hopefully the ens will back a more settled scenario as opposed to the op.

 

The Reading EPSgram has finally got down to -3C on the scale and there seems to be a drying out trend as well.

 

http://i.imgur.com/QHBlnUs.gif

[phil nw.]

It seems the stalemate goes on with the block to the east still waxing and waning and the Atlantic nipping in briefly when it get's an opening.

Frustrating for cold seekers but a fascinating pattern overall with so many possible developments further on.

At least for this late Autumn we have a much weaker Atlantic jet than usual  with the flow coming against the block and splitting north and south.

It looks like we could be heading for some mid-latitude blocking at the weekend as the Atlantic trough retreats nw again with pressure building across the UK.

The Gfs ens stamps for day 6 show this is the favoured development but also shows the diversity in how much of the jet energy goes across the north

 

 

ECM mean also favours a UK high early next week

 

Nothing can be taken for granted after day 6/7 with this pattern, as it swings one way then the other, but there does seem to be a trend in the ensembles for mid-latitude blocking around Europe

No real cold yet ,more a cooling down at the surface,especially over mainland Europe as the Atlantic continues in second gear to the north west.

[knocker]

Tonight's anomalies

 

NOAA 6-10 has HP Pacific-pole Scandinavia the latter ridging SW across the UK. The Canadian trough truncated mid Atlantic with HP adjacent the eastern seaboard. THe 8-14 a similar set up but weakens the Canadian trough, intensifies the HP adjacent to the eastern seaboard and moves the UK ridge a tad east.

 

The GEFS at T240 not dissimilar but has a low Alaska and , perhaps not unimportant, a weak trough Portugal. Carrying this forward to T336 and 384 sees a weakening and realignment of the pole and Scandinavian HP. More importantly the Canadian trough weakens and morphs into a trough centred UK and Europe. This alters the surface analysis quite drastically with low pressure eastern Atlantic surrounded by HP with cooler conditions UK.

 

I'm not putting any great store on this scenario and more inclined to feel the Scandinavian HP will have more of a say.

Edited November 24, 2014 by knocker

[bluearmy]

Wrt to the day 15/16 anomoly gefs/naefs where the ne states anomoly builds across the top of the sinking Atlantic trough, the ECM 12z extended have smelled the same solution! Nothing strong in the nw quadrant through greeny as yet but at least it's now showing anomolys higher than average. I do like it when naefs and ECM are on the same broad sheet at two weeks (though evidently knocker not impressed yet!)

Edited November 24, 2014 by bluearmy

[knocker]

To be honest, as always of course, I hadn't at the time of writing looked at the ECM extended anomaly and as you say it has arrived at the same solution. So suitable impressed, for the time being naturally.

[essexweather]

Very happy with the output across the models tonight. As mentioned last week with the MOGREPS update, significant drops in 850 temps showing around 3rd December. While we are not talking about any snow for the majority, we are taking about below average temperatures. As per Met Office update this morning :-)

 

Last week both Ian F and the Met Office laughed off my analysis with what the models where hinting, but I look at the larger picture (synoptically) and not Daily-Express style freezes

 

Think we can all enter December with the a better prospect than this stage last year

[SMU]

Evening All-

 

Its been a decent steady day looking at the models making small pidgeon steps forward in the hunt for cold.

 

Theres something that I meant to add into my posts of late, & that is there is ALWAYS 1 trend of the day, If you take the UKMO, GFS, GFS (p),ECM, GEM & the NAVGEM JMA all the runs of the day you get around 18 runs.

 

The trends noticed in the last 2 days including today.

 

Saturday 22 Nov. - Low digs further south-
What I saw Saturday, mainly in the Euros & JMA was the propensity to angle the atlantic low further & further south throughout the day, so what first looked like an overrunning pattern from the GFS with little in the way of disruption started to display more & more of those displaced charactoristics--

 

For example-

Heres tonights ECM 96 Mean, neg tilted low centred west of Portugal-

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014112412/EDH1-96.GIF?24-0

 

On Saturday 00z would have been the 156 chart - for todays 12z 96 Mean above.

ECM

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2014112200/ECH1-144.GIF?00

Not enough energy moving SE & not enough depth to the low over Iberia - ECM trying to lift it out quickly.

UKMO

Coming into range at 144 on the 00z was the most southerly & acute solution.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/archives/2014112200/UN144-21.GIF?22-00

GFS

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2014112200-0-144.png?0

was poor, with little extension of the jet, Also when Myself & a few others say the GFS cannot separate energy we see here the GFS just trying to move east rather than allowing energy North & south.

 

By 12z

ECM

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2014112212/ECH1-144.GIF?12

Excellent Close low over Iberia, & a fair neg tilt over the UK

 

UKMO-

The best !  CLOSED LOW OVER IBERIA..

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/archives/2014112212/UN144-21.GIF?22-12

 

GFS

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2014112212-0-144.png?12

Very poor again, no closed low, minimal energy sent North as a split flow - everything moving EAST.

 

JMA-

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/archives/2014112212/JN144-21.GIF?24-12

Pretty good, southerly extension of energy good,, however no closed low....

 

Then 18z GFS

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2014112218-0-138.png?18

More energy south but the balance was still very orientated towards the North... not a 50/50 split.

 

So Saturday summary was whilst everyone 'thought' that things looked bleak, the UKMO / ECM blend was fast arriving on the correct solution, since then even more energy has move south & recurved back North up which props up the block & strengthens the easterly flow-

 

For reference this is where the final solution roughly sits

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014112412/gemnh-5-120.png?12

& the GFS 12z from Sat-

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2014112212-5-168.png?12  POOR- wheres the split of the amplified Northern Arm-

 

 

Sunday 23rd November Trend.... The Arctic high & sliding low.

The first model to pick this up was the GEM here

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/archives/2014112212/gemnh-0-168.png?12 - look over Svalbard see the low spinning East & sending the cold SOUTH on its Northern & western flank & the arctic high 1045 MB....

Look at the same timeframe that day for GFS 12z & ECM 12z

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2014112212/ECH1-168.GIF?12 ECM yes-

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2014112212-0-168.png?12 GFS fail.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/archives/2014112212/JN168-21.GIF?24-12 JMA yes

 

Now move onto Sunday 144 12z for the same area over Svalbard

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2014112312/ECH1-144.GIF?12 ECM yes

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2014112312-0-144.png?12 GFS yes halfhearted

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/archives/2014112312/JN144-21.GIF?24-12 JMA yes- looks good

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/archives/2014112312/UN144-21.GIF?23-12 UKMO Yes

 

what changed Sunday was the modelling of the slider low & its orientation towards the SW, this is also effected by any forcing exerted on it, the GFS keeps piling lows into it so it slides the cold away SE, where as SOME runs steer it south & SW

( notably the GEM & NAVGEM)

 

So across Sunday, whilst the GFS firmed up on the negative tilted low but still tried to push east overall, so the other models were probably 24 hours ahead of it with the closed low over Iberia nailed & were moving on towards the interaction between this slider low/ arctic high feature & what the amplification of the scandi high looked like.

With 2 trains of thought still unresolved-

 

the TOTAL vertical advection was 1

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/archives/2014112400/navgemnh-0-168.png?24-06

Or the partial push through over the North of Scandi was the other

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2014112312/ECH1-168.GIF?12

 

The summary of yesterday was though more & more heights ahead of the low over scandi & an increasingly negative tilt - with still unresolved areas of advection towards the pole. Finally on the 18z the GFS started to catch on.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2014112318-0-114.png?18

 

 

Monday 24th Nov trend-

More energy as a SPLIT flow as opposed a sinuous flow due to even better resolution of the forcing over Scandi-

This afternoon has seen ALL models align into a recurvature of the jet NE over spain ( which is symmetrical to the bend SE over Scandi) - this forcing increases the easterlies over the central continent.

 

seen below

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/archives/2014112400/gemnh-5-156.png?00 GEM see Spain- correct but perhaps not amplified enough

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/archives/2014112412/JN156-102.GIF?24-12 JMA yes- lots of energy pushing back up NE

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/archives/2014112412/navgemnh-5-144.png?24-17 NAVGEM yes-

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2014112412-5-156.png?12 GFS well, to far east aimed at Italy.

 

Todays clear trend with the recurvature NE of the jet supports lower heights extending Eastwards through Southern Europe,

with the JMA finding a good even balance of energy

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014112412/JN144-102.GIF?24-12

 

It would seem the southern side is fairly well resolved now, however there will be residual energy in the Northern arm - the JMA finds the PERECT split

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014112412/JN144-21.GIF?24-12

this is supported by the NAVGEM

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/archives/2014112412/navgemnh-0-162.png?24-17

 

ECM & UKMO just slide through.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/archives/2014112412/UN144-21.GIF?24-12

 

So for today strong trending towards the recurvature of the southern arm that supports the easterly over Europe, whats the trending for Tuesday, can we get better amplification at 144 like the JMA - that has the biggest shot of deep cold coming through Europe or will we see consolidation of the slide through which still supports the easterl over Europe but cuts off the cold feed from the PV lobe over Western Russia.

 

either way its clear that the GFS has taken to the 18z to reach the correction point that the main models had at either 18z the night before or at the very least on the 00z.

expect the 18z GFS to fall into line with all the other models, or at least move to the rest of the model suite with a sharp correction to a more amplified flow of the jet exiting NE through Spain...

 

regards

Steve

 

[fergieweather]

the JMA is respected by the met office so i would not call it cannon fodder

JMA-GSM respected worldwide, as is the host operational centre.

Anyway, for sake of where it currently sits and to offer a more considered debate on comparative merits - http://www.wis-jma.go.jp/ddb/modelverif/newDATA

[DAVID SNOW]

JMA-GSM respected worldwide, as is the host operational centre.

Anyway, for sake of where it currently sits and to offer a more considered debate on comparative merits - http://www.wis-jma.go.jp/ddb/modelverif/newDATA

 

Any chance we could see the MOGREPS  verification stats  

[winterof79]

CFS  looking cool along with a satisfactory Northern Hemispheric Profile

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014112406/run1m/cfsnh-0-354.png?06

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=354&mode=0&carte=1&run=10

Edited November 24, 2014 by winterof79