Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14

[heath]

There seems to be reasonable agreement on one chunk of PV heading from Canada to northern Scandinavia (ECM and both GFS) but the eastern movement of the Iberian low on the GFS suites allows the second chunk to head east and then descend on the UK as the Russian high fights back. The ECM 00z at t240 could lead to a very different outcome, to my inexperienced eye, with a further trough possibly developing towards Iberia. Is there actually a mild solution for week 2 December out there at this stage?

[gottolovethisweather]

Not sure on the METOs take on the lastest set of models, but I think the same will apply as has done of late.  

 

Yes Ali, agreed and my take on it is a positive one. In that they suggest beyond D15 (ever so deep FI   , given that this Saturday is where current FI rightfully begins) things may get less cold by then.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcph3vm8s#?tab=fiveDay

 

 

This indicates to me that beyond the milder spell this weekend, D6 right through to D14, as shown by UK Outlook for Sunday 30 Nov 2014 to Tuesday 9 Dec 2014 in the link above and by selecting the UK 6-30 days option, current indications are for a colder more settled picture with most probably a continental flow for most of England during much of this period.

 

This is very encouraging news for coldies and looks like becoming the new forecast trend. My confidence in this is slowly increasing as each set of runs unfolds, but I would still like to get past the middle of this week before jumping wholeheartedly on board with this cold outlook. 

Edited November 25, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[carinthian]

Just had our latest up -date ( Central European forecast ) Info for central Europe to turn colder on Tues/ Wed next week. A trough development from Denmark to Switzerland with some snowfall, mostly light accumulations, possible to lower levels.

The UK is on the outer perimeters of our updates, but some lower temperatures seem likely. Possible development later next week for some more prolonged precipitation in the SE. The behaviour of the upper trough into SW Europe is causing a lot of uncertainty as the block still holds firm to the east, but the case for more widespread colder conditions seem to be firming up more generally from the start of next week.

 C

[gottolovethisweather]

Again deep FI I know, but I for one wouldn't mind seeing this European Temperature Profile in 10 to 12 days time.

 

 

Precisely what we need to see if we are to witness a colder than average December, if November doesn't fall below the CET mean, it will leave August as the only month below average.

 

As other posters have confirmed, some colder uppers are at least attempting to infiltrate much of central Europe and hopefully in time will spread further South and Westwards too. Kind of like I suggested a couple of days ago.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81842-model-output-discussion-1200-hrs-151114/?p=3074560

 

 

Here's hoping the NH Jet and WAA up into the North Pole continues to be shown in forthcoming outputs and we might just strike it lucky. A long way to go yet but December is a nearing and it should start off on a cold if dry note for most of us. 

Edited November 25, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[bobbydog]

Unfortunately it seems that the gfs 6z run has no support from it's esembles. Still it's looking better that last winter.

Luckily it has support from the 00z run...

[knocker]

as usual the Met Office are covering every possibility.  Mild, cold, wind, rain and snow.  How can they possibly lose?

 

You must keep on mind they haven't the benefit of the expertise of the mod thread. You need cut them some slack.

Edited November 25, 2014 by knocker

[Hocus Pocus]

You must keep on mind they haven't the expertise of the mod thread. You need cut them some slack.

They certainly haven't when it comes to LRF, as the last few years have shown.  Other than that yes they are untouchable when it comes to the short to medium term.

[Nick L]

Model discussion please, there are relevant threads for the Met Office LRFs.

[Methuselah]

They certainly haven't when it comes to LRF, as the last few years have shown.  Other than that yes they are untouchable when it comes to the short to medium term.

That could well be down to the simple fact that no-one stands out on LRFs? But, this thread is for model talk. And, as far as I can tell, all is still up in the air?

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014112512/gfsnh-0-66.png?12

 

GFS out to 66 - hanging back a long way to the west. looks good for later amplification.

[shaky]

Very interesting! ! Everything further west on the gfs at 102 hours!! Better heights going north east!! Plenty of waa aswell!!

[SMU]

So just to confirm.....

 

The NAVGEM 1 1/2  days ago 00z ( at 132 )

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/archives/2014112400/navgemnh-0-132.png?24-05 perfect vertical chart

 

same GFS chart

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2014112400-0-138.png?0

 

Now 12z today.....

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014112512/gfsnh-0-96.png?12

 

total back down from the GFS ( & referring to last nights post ) - the GFS around 18 hours late to the party....

[shaky]

Gfs parallel follows the operational run!! Everything further west!! Am starting to get really excited now but i know it could be too good to be true!!

[Barry12]

Not a bad 120 hour chart at all, heights further north and a chilly Easterly flow

 

[Rocheydub]

Generally speaking though, it ends up pretty similar, with the push against the block continuing. I'm looking at the GFS and not the P...

[Barry12]

Generally speaking though, it ends up pretty similar, with the push against the block continuing. I'm looking at the GFS and not the P...

 

The block is stronger on the 12z compared to the 6z though, it's trending the right way.

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

All we need is for some kind of trigger to open the gates to that super cold pool over Siberia. GFS parallel did it in superb style last night! I hope to see similar runs cropping up soon showing the same sort of thing too.

Really enjoying this interesting model watching at the moment! The hunt for cold continues...

[karlos1983]

westward march from the 06z to the 12z on the 850's GFS(P)

06z 12z

Edited November 25, 2014 by karlos1983

[Barry12]

Great 144 hours chart from the GFS P, even better than the GFs!

 

Edited November 25, 2014 by Barry95

[Mucka]

Steve outlines the GFS struggles but I think all the models are playing catch up a bit here. The UKMO isn't the best of the output out to 120h (GFSp is looking good) but it still has a much stronger Arctic ridge forming than yesterdays run.

 

UKMO 30 Nov today/yesterday

 

 

So it may be we will still see further positive developments tomorrow. At least a pattern change does look certain now as we get rid of the Atlantic trough (hopefully)

My hope is that any Acrtic high that forms can force low pressure into Scandi eventually as we finally get PV shifting East from Greenland but that is quite long term. Hard to see a decent Easterly with the jet over the top but if things keep improving re strength of the Arctic ridge that could definitely change as we could start to see more trough disruption through Scandi around day 7/8 then it would be game on.

Edited November 25, 2014 by Mucka

[snowy weather]

Gfs parallel follows the operational run!! Everything further west!! Am starting to get really excited now but i know it could be too good to be true!!

for a newbie, why are you getting excited?

why is everything going west good?

[gottolovethisweather]

BATTLEGROUND UK.

 

 

Heights to the West of me, heights to the East of me, stuck in the middle with you.

 

Pretty sure if this verified as shown, the start of December would only trend colder as time went on. 

 

When a few more inter and intra-runs look like these, I'll start to believe it but the believing period is getting closer. Even by Friday, the flow is off the continent, ok initially warmish uppers and then some as we head deeper into FI. 

Edited November 25, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[easton888]

west is where we are

[snowy weather]

west is where we are

in my head I got confused between east and west hahah ( it has been a very long day at university )

[gottolovethisweather]

for a newbie, why are you getting excited?

why is everything going west good?

 

Retrogression hints at a East to West reverse zonal flow, which thereby encourages colder air to infiltrate our little island from the cold continent.

 

Baby steps at first though, so time will tell.

Edited November 25, 2014 by gottolovethisweather