Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14

[blizzard81]

im bemused.... ok i didnt view the later runs yesterday, but this morning there appears to be some broad consensus between the gfs and ecm. and they both appear to signal the demise of the current eastern block as the azores high becomes displaced and ridges over the uk.

 

Recm1202.gif Recm1922.gif Recm2402.gif

 

and the gfs

 

Rtavn1442.gif Rtavn1802.gifRtavn2162.gif Rtavn3242.gif

that to me looks like it would produce fairly normal average weather for this time of the year. some milder days, some chillier, rather quiet and often gloomy with some fog and frost.

 

but with the predicted demise of the eastern block IF these charts varify, then theres nothing especially cold* on the cards in the forseeable future.

thankfully though, and something that will probably get agreement on from all quarters, its looking mainly dry.

 

* by that i mean particually cold below the normal for the time of year.

This is what I was trying to get across earlier this morning - The first cross model agreement for a very long time but not a good one from a coldies point of view. And before anyone says I haven't stated my reasonings, see my earlier post.

[bluearmy]

Point taken BA but just my assessment on the overnighters. However, like you say, I shouldn't base the whole winter on one set of runs. What's your views on the updated 00z ECM ensembles ?

They aren't headed in a definitive cold direction for the uk. the only things that seem evident are the losing of the w Europe high upper anomolys and the mean trough getting further into the uk than it has managed thus far. The fi linking of weakfish heights through greeny are not apparent this morning on either naefs or ECM. No anomoly which implies lowish heights in the area remaining the favourite. Vortex to remain split. Upper Arctic high the other side of the pole, slowly losing intensity with time but as a mean of 51 runs, I'd expect it to still be there. The northern arm of the jet stronger for longer on the 00z suite than yesterday's 12z

steady as she goes.

[terrier]

Well we seem to be finally getting some cross model agreement from the gfs and ECM this morning of the block to the east finally breaking down. Which In turn we start to see the Azores high move into play. Which would see settled weather and cold frosty days come into play. Certainly a big improvement on last years horror runs.

[mushymanrob]

Well we seem to be finally getting some cross model agreement from the gfs and ECM this morning of the block to the east finally breaking down. Which In turn we start to see the Azores high move into play. Which would see settled weather and cold frosty days come into play. Certainly a big improvement on last years horror runs.

 

yes there would be some cold frosty days initially with the displaced azores ridge, but eventually milder, moister atlantic air would get drawn around its northern flank delivering some benign overcast rather gloomy days.

[Hocus Pocus]

yes there would be some cold frosty days initially with the displaced azores ridge, but eventually milder, moister atlantic air would get drawn around its northern flank delivering some benign overcast rather gloomy days.

Yes but that's out in FI mushy the same FI you've condemned on the moaning thread.  Your right of course though but there is a chance of this block linking up with the SCEURO high or migrating towards Greenland over time.

[Barry12]

The Block has been forecast to break down for the last month in the unreliable timeframe. Yet here we are, with the block still in place.

[weirpig]

Quite good consistancy on the gfs compared to this morning runs  certainly a more seasonal start to winter this year.

[bobbydog]

the GFS is at least being consistent with the 00z run, with the 06z showing the large chunk of PV over greenland shifting over towards europe

 

 

Edited November 25, 2014 by bobbydog

[Ali1977]

FI on the GFS has massive potential if it were to happen, big Greeny high and about to reload another Northerly.  Dec, although not assured is definately starting to look seasonable if not heading cold. 

Add GFS P to that, also with a similar FI. 

Edited November 25, 2014 by Ali1977

[Nouska]

Yes, this is what I was looking at last night. A strong signal for the vortex segment to bleed off of NE Canada around the 6th.

How this is resolved will be interesting - will it be straight across, above us, then drop south or dive SE as the runs of yesterday showed. The heights to the south are lowering in the ensembles and an Arctic dipole anomaly to the north are both good signals to have if you're looking for cold in the UK

[bobbydog]

GFS(P) ends virtually the same as the Op. the block outflanks the PV, which then crashes through into europe ending on a nice snowy northerly!

 

GFS Op-

 

 

GFS (P)-

 

[karlos1983]

GFS(P) ends virtually the same as the Op. the block outflanks the PV, which then crashes through into europe ending on a nice snowy northerly!

 

GFS Op-

 

 

GFS (P)-

 

 

I'll take the Op please over the GFS(P), which leaves a PV lobe over Greenland and that low over Newfoundland (I think), surely destined for our shores. FI I know. 

[Summer Sun]

December looks like starting very seasonal with temperatures for many stuck in the mid single figures If fog does form over night next week it could linger all day for some areas with temperatures really struggling

 

 

 

So again its looking like a seasonal start to December which is a far cry from what we endured 12 months ago

 

 

 

 

[492]

It does now look like a guaranteed rather than phantom easterly for the south of the UK later in the week with Met O Fax charts heading towards this evolution. It looks like the source of the air set to reach the UK over the next few days is from N Africa and may be relatively mild at first.The low to the south looks like hanging around for a while helping to prop up the ridge and eventually allowing colder drier air to head towards the UK from further east. Models have repeatedly attempted to break down the anomalous ridge to the east over recent days and have repeatedly failed however the condition responsible for the ridge are likely to be changing due to seasonal changes and the ridge may well take up a different position as we head into winter. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4.gif

[summer blizzard]

Glorious. Chilly and perhaps sunny.

 

[SMU]

Afternoon all

Xmas shopping in bluewater so a brief post-

The early trend today has been an increase in atlantic energy & thats manifested in most of the models as eastward propergation, however as we have seen over the last 4 weeks that hasnt always been the outcome & as we get to T120 that energy has been dispersed north / south due to the scandi high -

It wouldnt surprise me if the models are drawn more ampified on the 12s

If someone wants to punt up the NAVGEM 144 NH this is what the pattern would look like should this happen

s

[stratty]

Afternoon all

Xmas shopping in bluewater so a brief post-

The early trend today has been an increase in atlantic energy & thats manifested in most of the models as eastward propergation, however as we have seen over the last 4 weeks that hasnt always been the outcome & as we get to T120 that energy has been dispersed north / south due to the scandi high -

It wouldnt surprise me if the models are drawn more ampified on the 12s

If someone wants to punt up the NAVGEM 144 NH this is what the pattern would look like should this happen

s

[stratty]

 

 

 

.....and at 'only' 264hrs ................some    

Edited November 25, 2014 by stratty

[terrier]

Unfortunately it seems that the gfs 6z run has no support from it's esembles. Still it's looking better that last winter.

[mushymanrob]

Yes but that's out in FI mushy the same FI you've condemned on the moaning thread.  Your right of course though but there is a chance of this block linking up with the SCEURO high or migrating towards Greenland over time.

 

well not quite. theres reasonable agreement this morning that the azores high will ridge northeastwards and the eastern block will degrade and join the displaced azores ridge. the main models show this as does the ec/gfs anomaly charts id suggest its within a semi reliable timeframe and isnt an odd cherry picked chart or a fantasy evolution.

 

The Block has been forecast to break down for the last month in the unreliable timeframe. Yet here we are, with the block still in place.

 

the difference though is that this time theres far more agreement.

 

but tbh whilst the current block is expected to diminish, there could well be a case that this displaced azores ridge could replace it, eventually, the gfs in fi suggests this and it is a plausible evolution.

[GrangemouthBairn]

So far this morning, the medium term output looks mainly dry with temperatures which look about average although underneath that high pressure with light winds and long nights, I think temperatures would probably be below average. Longer term, a little bit of potential of colder weather on the GFS 6z FI considering both the op and parallel look almost the same except a deeper low to the southwest of Greenland on the parallel although still unlikely to be correct at that range.

 

Even longer term, and the winter as a whole, this isn't great with the Met Office thinking that a milder and wetter winter is more likely than a colder and drier winter. But if you read it all, they do make clear that this doesn't discount a cold winter. Just a bit disappointing that they see it this way. http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/11/25/untangling-the-global-drivers-of-uk-winter-weather/

[SE Blizzards]

Even longer term, and the winter as a whole, this isn't great with the Met Office thinking that a milder and wetter winter is more likely than a colder and drier winter. But if you read it all, they do make clear that this doesn't discount a cold winter. Just a bit disappointing that they see it this way. http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/11/25/untangling-the-global-drivers-of-uk-winter-weather/

 

Is that the same Met Office that were going for a drier than average Winter this time last year, with HP being the dominant force?

I really wouldn't take much notice of LR seasonal forecasts.

 

Today's updated AO forecast see's a lot of scatter, but with a couple of members going as low as -4.

 

Edited November 25, 2014 by SE Blizzards

[Polar Maritime]

I have removed a few off topic posts, Please continue with Model Discussion only.

Thanks, PM.

[snow freak]

So far this morning, the medium term output looks mainly dry with temperatures which look about average although underneath that high pressure with light winds and long nights, I think temperatures would probably be below average. Longer term, a little bit of potential of colder weather on the GFS 6z FI considering both the op and parallel look almost the same except a deeper low to the southwest of Greenland on the parallel although still unlikely to be correct at that range.

 

Even longer term, and the winter as a whole, this isn't great with the Met Office thinking that a milder and wetter winter is more likely than a colder and drier winter. But if you read it all, they do make clear that this doesn't discount a cold winter. Just a bit disappointing that they see it this way. http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/11/25/untangling-the-global-drivers-of-uk-winter-weather/

as usual the Met Office are covering every possibility.  Mild, cold, wind, rain and snow.  How can they possibly lose?

[Ali1977]

Not sure on the METOs take on the lastest set of models, but I think the same will apply as has done of late.  Anything beyond 144 is still hard to resolve, and many different possibilities and outcomes open for grabs. I think the majority are pointing to a slight pressure rise from the South in the medium term, the location of that high pressure may be the hardest thing to work out. A few hundred miles dfference in a high over the UK can make a big difference to the weather on the ground. I would love some cold weather with snow, however second best is a nice crisp high pressure over the UK.  The next few days are going to make intesting viewing.