Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share

Recommended Posts

terrier Seasoned

terrier

Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire
Posted

Looking at the gfs tonight I think our main worrys aren't snowfall. Unless you live in Scotland. But the damaging winds and heavy rainfall. Not looking Good for large swaths of the uk. Stay safe guys. Looks very much like last year for this coming week on the models.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Looking at the gfs tonight I think our main worrys aren't snowfall. Unless you live in Scotland. But the damaging winds and heavy rainfall. Not looking Good for large swaths of the uk. Stay safe guys. Looks very much like last year for this coming week on the models.

 

The biggest difference I can see is the air is much colder

 

2013

 

UW96-7.GIF?08-12UW144-7.GIF?08-12

 

2014

 

UW96-7.GIF?08-12UW144-7.GIF?08-12

 

-4 to 0 850's is a big improvement on +8s

 

:)

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites
terrier Seasoned

terrier

Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire
Posted

The biggest difference I can see is the air is much colder

 

2013

 

UW96-7.GIF?08-12UW144-7.GIF?08-12

 

2014

 

UW96-7.GIF?08-12UW144-7.GIF?08-12

 

-4 to 0 850's is a big improvement on +8s

 

:)

yes but away from the far north we are going to see a lot of rainfall and strong winds this week on the charts. And cold heavy rain certainly doesn't float my boat.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
TonyH Experienced

TonyH

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
Posted

The biggest difference I can see is the air is much colder

 

2013

 

UW96-7.GIF?08-12UW144-7.GIF?08-12

 

2014

 

UW96-7.GIF?08-12UW144-7.GIF?08-12

 

-4 to 0 850's is a big improvement on +8s

 

:)

And not the repeated deluges and storms

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
robbo88 Enthusiast

robbo88

Posted
  • Location: Hattersley, greater manchester 160m asl.
  • Location: Hattersley, greater manchester 160m asl.
  • Popular Post
Posted

Ok so this is my 2nd year reading this thread, and slowly learning.

Feeling brave enough to post a chart....

So am I right in seeing that this fax chart has an occluded front and a trough both above the 528 dam line meaning anywhere above that 528 dam line has the potential for sleet/snow?

Or am I way off the mark.

Still learning and I'm starting with met office, however I notice it doesn't show uppers.

Thanks for any replies/help.

Ian

post-21944-0-59181600-1418060139_thumb.j

  • Like 12
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Paul Maestro

Paul

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Author
Posted

Ok so this is my 2nd year reading this thread, and slowly learning.

Feeling brave enough to post a chart....

So am I right in seeing that this fax chart has an occluded front and a trough both above the 528 dam line meaning anywhere above that 528 dam line has the potential for sleet/snow?

Or am I way off the mark.

Still learning and I'm starting with met office, however I notice it doesn't show uppers.

Thanks for any replies/help.

Ian

 

That's about correct - although the 528 line is a very rough approximation of where there may be a risk of snow :)

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

Potential rob but two things don't help

1) that is a day 5 chart and unlikely to verify like that

2) coming from a direction off the Atlantic which means dp's are more likely to be an issue.

And we don't see forecast DP's from uk model

There are other factors re snowfall which can be found in the learning section

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
terrier Seasoned

terrier

Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire
Posted

And not the repeated deluges and storms

sorry but have you not seen the model runs. We have a big storm heading our way on the gfs ukmo ECM gem with damaging winds and heavy rain for much of this week not great to be honest.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

Shame the T120 850s have failed to materialise for the UKMO, would have been nice to see how cold things got. Otherwise it's still looking like a westerly dominated pattern. The GEM is again bizarre for this coming weekend with the -4C isotherm barely reaching Scotland now. 

The low the GFS shows are day 4/5 is probably the biggest interest as that could bring something wintry if it were to verify and if all the potential factors for snow are in our favour.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
PolarWarsaw Seasoned

PolarWarsaw

Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

sorry but have you not seen the model runs. We have a big storm heading our way on the gfs ukmo ECM gem with damaging winds and heavy rain for much of this week not great to be honest.

 

Sorry, but did you not look out of your window for most of the last week or so. It was mostly dry and very frosty here and infact, for a lot of the country. This year, not only hemispherically speaking, but synoptically and at the surface our weather conditions have been virtually the polar opposite (not point intended) of those last year. It's nothing like mild, it's been very frosty and it's been predominantly quiet on the weather front since the beginning of November. All in all our conditions currently, couldn't be anything like last year if they tried.

 

On to the models themselves and todays 12z runs so far this evening. Things look once again in the balance, something for everyone would probably sum things up best. If it's a good winter storm your after, then it looks like you may get your wish this week. Some gales, snowy conditions in the north, probably reports of some good squall lines running through and a traditional sense to the weather. It does look like milder conditions aren't too far away as the week comes to an end, but luckily there will be NO washout anywhere in the south this week - certainly not the kind where it literally doesn't stop from dusk until dawn anyway - and infact, tommorrow looks decent if your wrap up south of Northern England.

 

All in all, a welcome and exciting week with snow, wind, rain and sun in the forecast. 

 

Superb...Brrr!!  :cold:

Edited by PolarWarsaw
  • Like 27
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cloud 10 Veteran

Cloud 10

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
Posted

The GEM does seem to have issues with its 850 hpa temperature predictions as shown below with its chart from 5 days ago and the actual for today.

 

predicted..  actual..

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Nick L Maestro

Nick L

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Posted

The GEM does seem to have issues with its 850 hpa temperature predictions as shown below with its chart from 5 days ago and the actual for today.

 

predicted..attachicon.gifgem-1-120.png  actual..attachicon.gifgem-1-6.png

 

Doesn't seem too bad to me? It's not going to be spot on 5 days ahead. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cloud 10 Veteran

Cloud 10

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
Posted

Doesn't seem too bad to me? It's not going to be spot on 5 days ahead. 

 

It should be getting the hang of it 3 days ahead,or even 2!

 

3 day..  2 day!

 

actual..

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

ECM again has probably the most underwhelming charts for next weekend (if we ignore the dodgy GEM 850s)

ECM1-120.GIF?08-0

ECM1-144.GIF?08-0

The pattern flattens even quicker than the GFS, let alone the GEM and UKMO. At least Scotland might still have a chance of wintry showers on Saturday. Another deep depression looks like going close to the north of Scotland by Sunday.

Edited by Captain shortwave
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
  • Popular Post
Posted

I pointed this out earlier today. you cant trust the GEM uppers modelling. i have found them to be too high off an onshore flow and too low off a continental. seemingly the upgrade hasnt addressed this. anyway, just an anecdotal flick through the GEFS members end week 2 and i get a feeling that heights in general this side of the NH are rising. clearly that cant happen everywhere but something afoot as we approach xmas.

  • Like 10
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

I think Friday could bring snow to hills even across the south as cold air flooding south clashes with the milder rainy area of low pressure, back edge wet snow for some and generally the latest MO update continues with the rather wintry theme of Atlantic lows swinging southeastwards across the UK with frequent cold and showery spells in their wake with hail, sleet and snow and thunder..pretty good I think. :-)

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Barry12 Seasoned

Barry12

Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
Posted

Some good warming showing on Christmas eve...

 

post-17488-0-08893600-1418064409_thumb.p

 

Interesting Christmas period for model watching perhaps...

 

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

AND THE SCANDI HEIGHTS PUSHING IN WITH THE LOBE OF VORTEX OVER GREENLAND LOOKING PRETTY LONELY.ECH1-240.GIF?08-0

Have you been drinking EM :) that chart looks poor to and very flat

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MR EXTREMES Experienced

MR EXTREMES

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
Posted (edited)

For what EM ? you've lost me

ridge trying to move out of the eastern seaboard towards the west south west side of greenland, on our side we got a euro scandi ridge pushing nw into the arctic circle.

or am i wrong?

just an amature.....ECH1-240.GIF?08-0 

Edited by emotional rollercoaster
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

AND THE SCANDI HEIGHTS PUSHING IN WITH THE LOBE OF VORTEX OVER GREENLAND LOOKING PRETTY LONELY.ECH1-240.GIF?08-0

Just to correct you, there are neither Greenland or Scandi heights on the day 9/10 charts. Just a typical westerly Atlantic pattern with its mix of milder and chillier interludes. There are some weak polar heights but hardly substantial.

Edited by Captain shortwave
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MR EXTREMES Experienced

MR EXTREMES

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
Posted

Just to correct you, there are neither Greenland or Scandi heights on the day 9/10 charts. Just a typical westerly Atlantic pattern with its mix of milder and chillier interludes. There are some weak polar heights but hardly substantial.

indeed no greenland heights but looking futher on if we could then theres possibility of heights building in from the west sw of greenland.

 

as for scandi heights more like russian heights agreed moving to the arctic circle almost there possibly better longer term beyond christmas.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...