Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Popular Post
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Popular Post
Posted

Awesome to think the foundations are possibly being layed for a potentially very wintry Xmas and new year with height rises to the nw incoming. In the meantime I'm happy to see the current nw / se jet alignment which is a much better angle of attack for cold and showery incursions which whets the appetite for early 2015..winter 14 / 15 should bury the nightmare of 10-12 months ago.

  • Like 21
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Banbury Experienced

Banbury

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
Posted

Yes if I stretch my imagination a suspicion on the T360 anomaly..

Your not convinced then

I don't know if any of you rate the monthly ensembles from the BCC - this caught my eye from the update today. Last trimester of December - might relate with Ian's comments.

 

md2014123nh_h5d2_2.gif

The BCC and his been a big favourite of blocking late on, highlighted very well by Gav on TWO

Link to comment
Share on other sites
knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted (edited)

Your not convinced then

The BCC and his been a big favourite of blocking late on, highlighted very well by Gav on TWO

 

No I wouldn't  say that but just looking at one chart it's the faintest suggestion. Without the hint I wouldn't have noticed it.

Edited by knocker
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
fergieweather Maestro

fergieweather

Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Popular Post
Posted

No I wouldn't  say that but just looking at one chart it's the faintest suggestion. Without the hint I wouldn't have noticed it.

The distant realm EPS clusters offer a (highly inconclusive) raft of outcomes but it's cluster 2 that offers the hint of emerging mid-Atlantic to Greenland block. Anyway... EC32 awaited with interest.

  • Like 33
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Geordiesnow Accomplished

Geordiesnow

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Posted

No I wouldn't  say that but just looking at one chart it's the faintest suggestion. Without the hint I wouldn't have noticed it.

 

Yep, I think straw clutching is coming into mind here i'm afraid, no doubt once that period comes and if nothing is on the horizon we will then hear "mid jan" could be the period and so on... 

 

Can't help but feel a little underwhelmed sadly, the models have correctly predicted the Canadian PV to weaken and it has done but there was only tiny hints the PV into Greenland would be disturbed but even so, the potential was there. However the low tha crossed Hudson proved a spoiler and the whole ridging is forecast to collapse as quickly as it formed so the North-Westerly flow just quickly topples and flattens out. Nevertheless, still some PM air but with it coming from the Atlantic and the above average SST's on western facing coasts then you suspect any lower level snowfall will be quite limited. 

 

I personally don't like the whole pattern in general, apart from the natraul cold you expect in Greenland, where is the significant cold air/PV!? The Arctic looks "warm", especially the Atlantic side of the Arctic, Scandinavia/Western Russia looks way above average and so does the states and Canada. You have to look on the Northern hemisphere chars and look towards Siberia before you see any deep cold. For this reason, we do sadly look a long way off for any significant cold under what too me is a very frustrating pattern of having the Russian high where it is,.

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted

The distant realm EPS clusters offer a (highly inconclusive) raft of outcomes but it's cluster 2 that offers the hint of emerging mid-Atlantic to Greenland block. Anyway... EC32 awaited with interest.

 

Your a star fergie. What am I saying...............................

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Yep, I think straw clutching is coming into mind here i'm afraid, no doubt once that period comes and if nothing is on the horizon we will then hear "mid jan" could be the period and so on... 

 

Can't help but feel a little underwhelmed sadly, the models have correctly predicted the Canadian PV to weaken and it has done but there was only tiny hints the PV into Greenland would be disturbed but even so, the potential was there. However the low tha crossed Hudson proved a spoiler and the whole ridging is forecast to collapse as quickly as it formed so the North-Westerly flow just quickly topples and flattens out. Nevertheless, still some PM air but with it coming from the Atlantic and the above average SST's on western facing coasts then you suspect any lower level snowfall will be quite limited. 

 

I personally don't like the whole pattern in general, apart from the natraul cold you expect in Greenland, where is the significant cold air/PV!? The Arctic looks "warm", especially the Atlantic side of the Arctic, Scandinavia/Western Russia looks way above average and so does the states and Canada. You have to look on the Northern hemisphere chars and look towards Siberia before you see any deep cold. For this reason, we do sadly look a long way off for any significant cold under what too me is a very frustrating pattern of having the Russian high where it is,.

Yep, I think straw clutching is coming into mind here i'm afraid

 

GS

 

it's dec 8th,i would clutch the straws when the winter is nearly over :) ,as much as i have been on this thread over the years,i have seen winter signoptics far worse than this believe me,that BIG word again is PATIENCE.

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

You're saying what you see knocker. None of us would have noticed from the mean and anomolys. Need the clusters. Naefs is more than a hint but without ECM anomolys pointing that way, no one would be too convinced.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted

Come on chaps, Back to Model Discussion and respect others views please.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Nouska Accomplished

Nouska

Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
Posted

In addition to the BCC model posted earlier, the CFS also sniffing (or is it whiffing :unsure2: ) a height rise to our NW to see out the month.

 

wk3.wk4_20141207.z500.gif

 

Whatever tranpires in actuality, at this moment in time, there is the signal for a colder end to the month

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted

Come on chaps, Back to Model Discussion and respect others views please.

Yes... the next run on the GFS will be showing Christmas Day....That's my model input :pardon:

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

EC32 retains marked low anomalies to N right through run. So no significant change in emphasis worth detailing, nor is any expected for a while.

Good evening... Serious question.. I am not sure I understand why there are hints on ECM postage stamps of a possible shift in pattern but the latest EC32 is suggesting no change.. Why might that be?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

Good evening... Serious question.. I am not sure I understand why there are hints on ECM postage stamps of a possible shift in pattern but the latest EC32 is suggesting no change.. Why might that be?

I suspect it's a but soon for the clusters to be analysed on the 32 and in any case, it's early days. There are clearly reasons why Ian states that things may take a while to begin to show through (if they indeed do).

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
Posted

What can be seen right to the end of 12z gefs is the vortex under further pressure from wave breaking.

All sorts of profiles bring modelled near Christmas with some fragmentation.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=384

 

No clear signal for any solid Arctic blocking as yet but later naefs also showing a return of weak +ve ht anomalies over the pole.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefsnh-0-0-384.png?12

 

no real change to our west/north westerly setup looks likely in the next 2 weeks but beyond that maybe early signs of the retraction or maybe cutting off of the Greenland trough and the Atlantic jet weakening. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Fozfoster Seasoned

Fozfoster

Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
Posted (edited)

EC32 retains marked low anomalies to N right through run. So no significant change in emphasis worth detailing, nor is any expected for a while.

thanks for your input Ian. So my take on that is no pattern change for rest of 2014 !! Edited by Fozfoster
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Popular Post
Posted

Despite a request from Polar Maritime, I've just had to edit/delete a couple of posts within minutes of his request.........This flagrant disrespect shown to the forum hosts and indeed other members/contributors of this thread really has to stop, and stop now.....debate & discuss by all means, but please cut out the barbed & sarcastic comments and acts of 'one upmanship'.............thanks 

  • Like 24
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
  • Popular Post
Posted

Well I think I will make this my final post in this thread. I'll bow out with the observation that this fella is quite a bomb, with hurricane force winds, and it wouldn't have been a good time to be on Ocean Station Alpha. I'm going for a saunter..........................I may be some time. (to paraphrase)

 

post-12275-0-30519100-1418080128_thumb.p

  • Like 16
Link to comment
Share on other sites
blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted

I suspect it's a but soon for the clusters to be analysed on the 32 and in any case, it's early days. There are clearly reasons why Ian states that things may take a while to begin to show through (if they indeed do).

Yes, I assume the EC32 will have been initialised prior to the 12z suites??

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted (edited)

thanks for your input Ian. So that I take it is no pattern change for rest of 2014 !!

Being forecast so far

Edited by SN0WM4N
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...