Winter 2014-15 thread

[Gavin Hannah]

The MEtO 16-30 Dayer has now deleted the chance of much colder weather devolving later in the period. Not a good sign and they must be confident of no sustained cold spell on the horizon.

 

 

I don't think anyone can be really be that confident that far out.  It's still a case of wait and see atm with regards to post christmas and new year. Come this weekend we wil have a good idea and a probable scenario pinned down. Considering the trending pattern shift around christmas being progged, I'm surprised to hear the METO have gone the other way.

[Bristawl Si]

I don't think anyone can be really be that confident that far out.  It's still a case of wait and see atm with regards to post christmas and new year. Come this weekend we wil have a good idea and a probable scenario pinned down. Considering the trending pattern shift around christmas being progged, I'm surprised to hear the METO have gone the other way.

They've been pretty much correct so far this Winter, so why doubt them?

[Summer Sun]

Just as the met office's longer rang outlook has its wording changed the EC 32 comes on board......

 

@MattHugo81 

 

Interesting EC32 update which shows a pronounced block within the N Atlantic and up into Greenland (-NAO) for the start of 2015

 

December update of the EC Seasonal model goes with a particularly -ve NAO pattern, a big change from past months!

 

Amazing change to the EC Seasonal with such a strong +ve height anom over the pole for Jan/Feb/Mar. It's playing catchup once again.

 

The met office text forecast was updated unusually early today (between 7am and 10:00 its normally between 11am to early afternoon) will be interesting to see what tomorrow's update says

Edited December 16, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Gavin Hannah]

They've been pretty much correct so far this Winter, so why doubt them?

 

 

Because if I took the Meto at their word all the time, I wouldn't be in here...     And like SS mentioned above, will be interesting to see which way they go with their updates. Some really strong signals for blocking as we approach christmas and new year at the momemt,  but as always, it could change in a few days to mild mush again (hope not).  

[SE Blizzards]

Anyone that is interested in LR Models, (i must say i'm not) then Gavin P has just made a video about what the JMA + CFS are showing for the next 2 - 3 Months.

 

[Hocus Pocus]

I think I'll await tomorrows update before I cast any further judgement, if it's still singing from the same hymn sheet as today I'll keep the sledge under wraps for now. Hopefully with the EC update the outlook will be a little more seasonal at least.

Edited December 16, 2014 by Hocus Pocus

[SE Blizzards]

Eighteenth Christmas update

 

 

I must say, i do love it when Gavin P goes into 'ramp mode'

 

[MidnightSnow]

I've been following the model thread today and it seems things are looking very promising for cold. However, I'm trying my best not to get too excited because we're still in the unreliable timeframe.

I REALLY hope it isn't doom and gloom tomorrow, long may this cold theme continue :cold:

[Mark Neal.]

I've been following the model thread today and it seems things are looking very promising for cold. However, I'm trying my best not to get too excited because we're still in the unreliable timeframe.

I REALLY hope it isn't doom and gloom tomorrow, long may this cold theme continue :cold:

Yep a cause for optimism!!

[> mark]

Wasn't mid December touted as a point at which to see more "seasonal" conditions?

Sent on my Android tab on 18th December (which also shows 13oC @ 0708UTC)!

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Does anyone know whether the AA are privy to long term forecasts from say the Meto that the general public don't have access to?

 

The reason I ask is that I was towed back from West Yorkshire on Sunday and was chatting to the AA man and he said an off the cuff remark about when all the 'snow and cold' arrives. I thought nothing of it at the time but now with stella charts showing in the MOD thread (albeit in FI) It got me thinking. Presumably they would appreciate an early heads up as they would no doubt be inundated if we had a repeat of a 1947, 62/63, 78, 81/82 etc. 

[Summer Sun]

Quite a change from the met today......

 

UK Outlook for Tuesday 23 Dec 2014 to Thursday 1 Jan 2015:

 

Rain over central and southern parts Tuesday should move slowing southeastwards, clearing the southeast early on Christmas Eve. Colder showery conditions to the north, with snow on high ground here, following over the entire UK. The colder conditions then persist for most through Christmas Day and the following weekend with snow even to low levels at times in the north. There is a low probability of some more persistent rain crossing southern parts during the holiday weekend with a risk of snow on the leading edge. Otherwise in the following week there looks to be a gradual return to spells of wet and milder weather interspersed with colder, showery conditions. Generally windy for many throughout the period with risk of gales, these mainly in the northwest.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Edited December 18, 2014 by Summer Sun

[MidnightSnow]

Some very conflicting opinions on the latest models in the model discussion thread. Some saying upgrades, some are saying downgrades.

How are we looking at the moment?

[Barry12]

Some very conflicting opinions on the latest models in the model discussion thread. Some saying upgrades, some are saying downgrades.

How are we looking at the moment?

 

The models have definitely downgraded today, I don't think anyone will dispute that. But, Christmas day and Boxing day are still looking cold, white Christmas for a few up North I'd say.

[johnholmes]

Some very conflicting opinions on the latest models in the model discussion thread. Some saying upgrades, some are saying downgrades.

How are we looking at the moment?

 

why not have a look at the 12z yesterday and compare it to today? I can assure you that folk will put a spin on it so don't take their word on it is my advice.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Does anyone know whether the AA are privy to long term forecasts from say the Meto that the general public don't have access to?

 

The reason I ask is that I was towed back from West Yorkshire on Sunday and was chatting to the AA man and he said an off the cuff remark about when all the 'snow and cold' arrives. I thought nothing of it at the time but now with stella charts showing in the MOD thread (albeit in FI) It got me thinking. Presumably they would appreciate an early heads up as they would no doubt be inundated if we had a repeat of a 1947, 62/63, 78, 81/82 etc.

I think they are briefed by some meteorological agency, yes. Similar thing happened to me at work prior to Jan 2013. It was about this time in December and a guy said they'd been briefed that snow was on its way in Jan. Sure enough the strat warming occurred and snow arrived. Think he gritted for the council or something.

[2810lollypop]

I think they are briefed by some meteorological agency, yes. Similar thing happened to me at work prior to Jan 2013. It was about this time in December and a guy said they'd been briefed that snow was on its way in Jan. Sure enough the strat warming occurred and snow arrived. Think he gritted for the council or something.

on the aa Facebook page it does mention cold & snowy conditions in a week or two in their post yesterday ? Time will tell & I'm sure there will be as usual more twists & turns along the way . Happy model watching & happy Friday everyone !

[MidnightSnow]

Tweet from Ian Ferguson today:

"Expected colder than average to New Year. Periods of severe weather possible"

Key word is "possible" but still encouraging to see.

[Summer Sun]

Risk of some significant snow in the north next weekend

 

UK Outlook for Wednesday 24 Dec 2014 to Friday 2 Jan 2015:

 

A band of cloud and rain is likely to be affecting many central parts of the UK at first on Christmas Eve, clearing the southeast later. Colder conditions then spreading to many areas, continuing into Christmas day, with some wintry showers across N areas. Probably becoming increasingly unsettled into the weekend, with the risk of persistent heavy rain, gales and also a risk of significant snow, this more likely across some northern parts. Conditions after Christmas likely to remain predominantly cold across the N, but with the chance of milder interludes across the far south. Otherwise the following week looks perhaps rather cold on the whole, with snow showers likely across many northern areas but milder, wetter interludes possible at times. Generally windy for many throughout.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwyht9w6#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1419120000

 

Sounds like a possible battleground snow event to me

Edited December 19, 2014 by Summer Sun

[JeffC]

Sounds like a possible battleground snow event to me

We can but hope and that the cold wins out.

 

Maybe we should get Harry Hill to introduce it...FIGHT!!!

[Don]

Risk of some significant snow in the north next weekend

 

UK Outlook for Wednesday 24 Dec 2014 to Friday 2 Jan 2015:

 

A band of cloud and rain is likely to be affecting many central parts of the UK at first on Christmas Eve, clearing the southeast later. Colder conditions then spreading to many areas, continuing into Christmas day, with some wintry showers across N areas. Probably becoming increasingly unsettled into the weekend, with the risk of persistent heavy rain, gales and also a risk of significant snow, this more likely across some northern parts. Conditions after Christmas likely to remain predominantly cold across the N, but with the chance of milder interludes across the far south. Otherwise the following week looks perhaps rather cold on the whole, with snow showers likely across many northern areas but milder, wetter interludes possible at times. Generally windy for many throughout.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwyht9w6#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1419120000

 

Sounds like a possible battleground snow event to me

 

Not a bad update for coldies from the Metoffice today.  Not brilliant for southern areas but much better than any forecast last Winter and there's still time for changes.

[SE Blizzards]

Risk of some significant snow in the north next weekend

 

UK Outlook for Wednesday 24 Dec 2014 to Friday 2 Jan 2015:

 

A band of cloud and rain is likely to be affecting many central parts of the UK at first on Christmas Eve, clearing the southeast later. Colder conditions then spreading to many areas, continuing into Christmas day, with some wintry showers across N areas. Probably becoming increasingly unsettled into the weekend, with the risk of persistent heavy rain, gales and also a risk of significant snow, this more likely across some northern parts. Conditions after Christmas likely to remain predominantly cold across the N, but with the chance of milder interludes across the far south. Otherwise the following week looks perhaps rather cold on the whole, with snow showers likely across many northern areas but milder, wetter interludes possible at times. Generally windy for many throughout.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwyht9w6#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1419120000

 

Sounds like a possible battleground snow event to me

 

There was no real wording of snow at all (especially on lower ground) in the METO longer range outlook a couple of weeks ago with regards to the same period as above. It just goes to show how things can (and often do) change. That is why i never get hung up over their longer range forecasts (week 3 to 4)! 

 

Seems to me their 2 week forecast is getting more and more wintry day by day.

Edited December 19, 2014 by SE Blizzards

[Thunderbolt_]

EYE CANDY ALERT! :w00t:

 

Edited December 19, 2014 by ScottRichards10

[richardc1983]

I think they are briefed by some meteorological agency, yes. Similar thing happened to me at work prior to Jan 2013. It was about this time in December and a guy said they'd been briefed that snow was on its way in Jan. Sure enough the strat warming occurred and snow arrived. Think he gritted for the council or something.

Pretty sure I read that Mark Vogan was involved at some point?

[Summer Sun]

I keep getting a feeling that this winter will be one where no pattern dominates for any length of time ECM is still showing this out to day 10 with a bit of everything from mild spells to average to cooler