Winter 2014-15 thread

[Peter H]

Still plenty of time for this winter to be fondly remembered as a classic.

I doubt it. Looks as if it's turning out not that dissimilar from last winter

 

 

Some may think im mad saying this

Well, I can't speak for anyone else but I do.

but like I said a few days ago, if for example the last week of Jan turns very cold with heavy snowfalls and this continues for the first week of Feb

Not according to the charts up until the 19th January, and that's past the mid way stage of this winter. Models this morning look dreadful, after teasing us with the promise of a really cold spell at the end of next week for a few days (up until Sunday evening). Now they've just gone back to the same old. .

Neither the Met Office nor the BBC are hinting at anything remotely cold in their outlooks, and that's into February now.

The chances of this one becoming a "real classic" are remote in my opinion. Another snowless stinker I'm afraid, at least in these parts.

Edited January 6, 2015 by Peter H

[damianslaw]

Yes there is quite a bit of despondency at the moment with the way this winter has currently played out - but as you say a long while to go yet. A lot is probably due to the conditions we experienced last winter storm after storm and no cold weather to speak of whatsoever. Many cold snow lovers were probably lulled into a false sense in the autumn given the many 'positive' postings about a change to very cold conditions come the New Year - clearly this hasn't and won't happen, but it certainly doesn't mean we won't see a cold shot at some stage during the second half.

 

Up until last winter, we had a run of very good winters for cold and snow (all 5 produced at least a 10 day spell of cold snowy weather, the cold being much longer lasting winters 09/10,10/11 and 12/13 - if you count March), however, whilst the 5 before winter 08/09, i.e. going back to 03/04 were in the main zonal wet mild affairs bar 05/06 they all still managed to produce a few shortlived cold spells thanks largely to northerly airstreams in the second half even if some were in Spring such as April 08 and we saw an unusual easterly synoptical set up back end of Feb 05 into March which came out of nowhere on the back of a very lengthy mild westerly airstream.

Edited January 6, 2015 by damianslaw

[Peter H]

I do wish sites such as the weather outlook and this one would abandon the seasonal winter forecast. They've been so badly out in recent years they're next to useless.

Pure guessing and in many cases fantasy.

Here's a prediction from me. I reckon next winter will turn out the same as this winter and the last one.

I don't think that's too unlikely.

I think it's two years now since we had any appreciable snow on the ground. Even the winter of 2012/13 only really affected the hillier parts around here.

[sundog]

Here's a prediction from me. I reckon next winter will turn out the same as this winter and the last one.

 

 

 

I think next winter will not be as bad for cold and snow as this one ( so far) and last winter.  Not very scientific but take this sequence on its own -winters 85/86, 90/91, 95/96, 00/01, 05/06 10/11. All these winters would be considered decent/half decent winters overall. Some of the best cold spells we have had since the mid 80's have occurred during these winters. Feb 86,feb 91,dec 95,dec 10. Many of these winters were preceeded also by mild fairly rubbish winters-88/89,89/90, 93/94,94/95, 98/99. 99/00. 03/04. 04/05.  Could it be winter 2015/16 will continue this little sequence.  Of  course there have been other winters not in this sequence that have been decent,  09/10,08/09 and a few others but taking it on its own we have had a decent/half decent winter every fifth yr on the fifth yr if you know what i mean since the mid 80s.

 

 

 

 

[SE Blizzards]

I do wish sites such as the weather outlook and this one would abandon the seasonal winter forecast. They've been so badly out in recent years they're next to useless.

Pure guessing and in many cases fantasy.

Here's a prediction from me. I reckon next winter will turn out the same as this winter and the last one.

 

You say next Winter will turn out the same as this Winter and the last one!? Well...surely that's pure guessing and in your case fantasy 

[Peter H]

You say next Winter will turn out the same as this Winter and the last one!? Well...surely that's pure guessing and in your case fantasy 

It'll not surprise me.

We haven't had a decent snowfall since December 2010.

[Peter H]

Up until last winter, we had a run of very good winters

Not really in these parts.

2008/09 wasn't bad, and 2009/10 reminded me of the 60's again.

But 2010/11 ended abruptly on Boxing day, and 2011/12 was truly awful. 2012/13 was a strange one since there was horrendous amounts of snow on the hills, and not at very high altitudes. The March blizzard of 2013 was quite unheard of, but it only affected high ground. Areas at sea level were largely snow free.

So apart from 2008/09, 2009/10 and late November/December 2010 we really haven't had anything to shout about. Four years without a decent snowfall really is quite a long time, even for here.

Edited January 6, 2015 by Peter H

[sundog]

It'll not surprise me.

We haven't had a decent snowfall since December 2010.

 All the more reason why not next yr? The longer one goes without seeing much snow surely the snow drought has to end at some point. For the record i havent had much snow either since Dec 2010.

 

Your post above this one is pretty much how its been at my location regards snow here aswell  for the last few yrs, pretty dire it must be said.

Edited January 6, 2015 by sundog

[weather_it_will]

Still plenty of time for this winter to be fondly remembered as a classic.....................So in other words plenty of time left yet!

You will still be saying this in April. 

[Richard2901]

Not really in these parts.

2008/09 wasn't bad, and 2009/10 reminded me of the 60's again.

But 2010/11 ended abruptly on Boxing day, and 2011/12 was truly awful. 2012/13 was a strange one since there was horrendous amounts of snow on the hills, and not at very high altitudes. The March blizzard of 2013 was quite unheard of, but it only affected high ground. Areas at sea level were largely snow free.

So apart from 2008/09, 2009/10 and late November/December 2010 we really haven't had anything to shout about. Four years without a decent snowfall really is quite a long time, even for here.

 

More or less the same here. Nothing decent since 2010. 2009 and 2010 stick out like a sore thumb in an absolutely shocking run of snowless winters abysmal even by the standard of the 1990s  

[Peter H]

2009/10 would have been an average winter in the 1960's. Snowless rubbish like this year and last would have been the exception rather than the rule.

Maybe there is some truth in global warming after all

[Peter H]

In the 1970's 1974/75 sticks out as a really bad one. Also 1979/80. 1970/71 wasn't great either. Likewise 1973/74.

All the rest were reasonable, culminating in the so called "winter of discontent" 1978/1979. Apart from 1981/82, probably the best winter in the last 40 years.

Had 2010 continued into January/February it would have been record breaker.

I'm glad I'm old enough to remember 1962/63

Edited January 6, 2015 by Peter H

[Peter H]

All the more reason why not next yr?

Because we say this every year and it never happens.

As predictable as James Madden's big freezes.

Edited January 6, 2015 by Peter H

[chionomaniac]

I do wish sites such as the weather outlook and this one would abandon the seasonal winter forecast. They've been so badly out in recent years they're next to useless.

Pure guessing and in many cases fantasy.

Here's a prediction from me. I reckon next winter will turn out the same as this winter and the last one.

I don't think that's too unlikely.

I think it's two years now since we had any appreciable snow on the ground. Even the winter of 2012/13 only really affected the hillier parts around here.

Just because a winter forecast doesn't come off doesn't mean that there is no merit in constructing it and that any the basis and reasoning for it is pure fantasy. It is only by stretching our own forecasting boundaries and capabilities that, over time, we will be able to forecast out to timeframes that were previously thought impossible. Without trialling ideas and theories then science and evolution would have stood still and you would still be hunting and gathering your food rather than repeating your views over the internet ad nauseam.

 

So to every person that ridicules long range forecasting I ask the same question - at what timeframe do you think that we should limit our forecasts to? You must obviously have some timeframe in mind in what it is not worth trying to forecast to - so what is it Peter? 

[Peter H]

The models are teasing us again this evening.

[Peter H]

Without trialling ideas and theories then science and evolution would have stood still

Indeed, but forecasting for any more than a week or so ahead really is something of a guessing game. Even meteorologists admit that.

Remember the Met Office's prediction of a "barbecue summer" a few years back which turned out nothing of the sort ?

Most of the winter forecasts I've seen over the last few years have been dead wrong.

[chionomaniac]

Indeed, but forecasting for any more than a week or so ahead really is something of a guessing game. Even meteorologists admit that.

Remember the Met Office's prediction of a "barbecue summer" a few years back which turned out nothing of the sort ?

Most of the winter forecasts I've seen over the last few years have been dead wrong.

Anything a week ahead would have been in the far reaches of FI 50 years ago when reliability over 3 days was a struggle - the ensembles give good guidance of the long wave pattern from week 1 to week 2, so I disagree. If we followed your reasoning we would be stuck in the dark ages.

[TEITS]

I agree with CH.

 

My own thoughts with regards to LRF is at the moment far too many variables which are not fully understood make long range forecasting very challenging, in addition you then have the problem of figuring out how they interact with each other. So what is the option do you give up or carry on? Well you won't find the solution by simply giving up which is why LRF must carry on.

 

I will add even if the Net Weather & Steve M forecast are completely wrong I am still very grateful to the effort they put in and will look forward to next winters LRF. At least we do not have to pay for these forecasts unlike some who predict 1963 winters every year and have the cheek to charge for them!!

[Hocus Pocus]

I think LRF is a thankless tasks with so many variables we barely understand, yet to call it a waste of time is an injustice to the hard work and dedication that goes into a lot of them. Like CH said we'll still be stuck in the Dark Ages if we adopted Peter's attitude and even though many may end up wrong if we don't trial ideas then how are we going to move forward and learn from our mistakes.

[johnholmes]

Indeed, but forecasting for any more than a week or so ahead really is something of a guessing game. Even meteorologists admit that.

Remember the Met Office's prediction of a "barbecue summer" a few years back which turned out nothing of the sort ?

Most of the winter forecasts I've seen over the last few years have been dead wrong.

 

If everyone adopted that Peter science would never move forward. The B-B-Q thing was not the correct headline either, the senior man who dreamt up that idea keeps well away now. The overall prediction was not that far from what occurred, just a silly attention grabbing and back firing headline.

I agree with the comments of chio, forecasting has moved forward in 50 years, largely due to computing power increasing but also to meteorologists/climatologists continuing to try to move forward, and that applies to professional and to amateur ones alike. Science is all about exploring and trying to push forward our understanding. The trouble is some folk expect it to suddenly be possible to accurately predict more than 3 days ahead. It will take decades to get forecasts at 10-15 days as accurate as they are now at 3-5 days, probably longer to get the overall weather patterns correct at 1-3 months. Stop expecting wine from water and just enjoy the improvements, slow as they are.

Edited January 7, 2015 by johnholmes

[Danielvn]

If everyone adopted that Peter science would never move forward. The B-B-Q thing was not the correct headline either, the senior man who dreamt up that idea keeps well away now. The overall prediction was not that far from what occurred, just a silly attention grabbing and back firing headline.

I agree with the comments of chio, forecasting has moved forward in 50 years, largely due to computing power increasing but also to meteorologists/climatologists continuing to try to move forward, and that applies to professional and to amateur ones alike. Science is all about exploring and trying to push forward our understanding. The trouble is some folk expect it to suddenly be possible to accurately predict more than 3 days ahead. It will take decades to get forecasts at 10-15 days as accurate as they are now at 3-5 days, probably longer to get the overall weather patterns correct at 1-3 months. Stop expecting wine from water and just enjoy the improvements, slow as they are.

 

Of course science should move forward, but there really should be an acknowledgement that currently we genuinely don't understand how the weather on this planet works beyond a couple of weeks with any sort of reliability and that this is even more of an issue in places like the UK where the weather is inherently unstable and subject to change.

 

This unwillingness by some is to acknowledge that we don't know what's going on 110% is why I'm not 100% sold on climate change being caused by CO2. If you make a prediction and it's wrong, you can't simply fudge your data to fit or say "oops we forgot about a factor, but we know about it now and have changed our models", proper science is based on making predictions, seeing what happens, if it doesn't happen you say you're wrong, make more predictions based on revised theories till you come to a point where your predictions closely match what actually happens. The other problem with predictions is that you can be right for the wrong reasons. Even Madden gets things right sometimes......

 

I'm waffling, but I think it's for these reasons that the Met Office was absolutely right to stop doing LRF's for the public.

[Peter H]

Even Madden gets things right sometimes......

So do astrologers

Edited January 7, 2015 by Peter H

[hillbilly]

Just because a winter forecast doesn't come off doesn't mean that there is no merit in constructing it and that any the basis and reasoning for it is pure fantasy. It is only by stretching our own forecasting boundaries and capabilities that, over time, we will be able to forecast out to timeframes that were previously thought impossible. Without trialling ideas and theories then science and evolution would have stood still and you would still be hunting and gathering your food rather than repeating your views over the internet ad nauseam.

 

So to every person that ridicules long range forecasting I ask the same question - at what timeframe do you think that we should limit our forecasts to? You must obviously have some timeframe in mind in what it is not worth trying to forecast to - so what is it Peter? 

I have said before with much criticism that lrforcasts are a bit pointless.The met office don't do too bad over a 2 week period but to forcast 3 months ahead is nothing more than guesswork.By all means I have no problem in someone giving a 4 week forcast that is something reasonable to aim at but anything longer is pointless!!

[Dartmoor2014]

Still plenty of time for this winter to be fondly remembered as a classic. Some may think im mad saying this but like I said a few days ago, if for example the last week of Jan turns very cold with heavy snowfalls and this continues for the first week of Feb then we should really be satisfied with this. When I think back to cold spells in my childhood the winters did not consist of constant blizzards. I think we need to accept the climate we live in. I also think the other reason for such recent negative posts is a combination of last winter and our current one.

 

I remember the harsh cold spell of 1981 which was far colder, more snowfall than Dec 2010 in Peterborough, the blizzards of 78/79, the biting E,lys of the late 80s and the Feb 91 E,ly. Yet none of these cold spells were as memorable as Jan 1987 and yet this winter was largely mild except the freak 7 day E,ly.. I still remember to this day the dreadful experience of walking to school in a blinding blizzard when max temps were -7C and this wasn't taking the wind chill into account. I also vivdly remember how heavy and constant the snow was.

 

So in other words plenty of time left yet!

 

 

Yes I remember those days to, 1979 here was classic with 20 foot drifts and -13c at night. 1978 Feb snow was deep and I remember helicopters dropping food for animals, but it all melted so quickly. 1986 -1987 were very cold here, we had a month of snow 10 feet deep and the 10 inches of snow all blew into drifts. The best snow for sheer beauty was 2010 when we had 9" which remained un thawed for 10 days and a very white christmas with some night lows of - 16c I must admit I miss the blizzards, ahh those days when my 3 brothers would grab our torches and walk around the fields measuring how deep the snow was drifting! oh well may be this winter will give us the blizzard of awesome depths.

[Dorsetbred]

Interesting presentation from Met re Glosea5 their Winter forecasts which they say are now skilful and have been achieved....their emphasis on the NAO in UK Winters their ensemble skill predictions for the NAO and the point that skilfull prediction of the NAO gives skill in Europe.

Hmmmmm....they seem to like the work skilfulI counted it 10 times in the presentation. Seems to be from 2013.

Didn't think they publicly gave their skilful Winter forecast out anymore...if Glosea5 is that good they should start re releasing a Winter/seasonal forecast me thinks.http://www.rmets.org/sites/rmets.org/files/abstracts/Mar/16032013-scaife.pdf

Quite "skillfully" presented.

Given this presentation I see little concern to think that the use of Glosea5 has nailed the predictions we see in the model & strat threads well & truly!