Winter 2014-15 thread

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Cold Spell for Northern Ireland Pom, cold snap for the South East of Engand.

 

;-)

Get ready to hide Mountain

[Polar Maritime]

Conditions looking great for the weekend in Glencoe Ski resort.

 

Edited January 16, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Dr. Astro]

Conditions looking great for the weekend in Glencoe Ski resort.

 

 

Looks real nice & deep, that will do them the world of good.

 

How's the peaks? Might pop up there this weekend with the dog.

[Thunderbolt_]

Winter can be absolutely beautiful when we get the synoptics that we have now. Snow bands, snow showers, frost, fog, sunshine, seasonable temperatures. This really beats those boring gales by a clear mile.

Edited January 18, 2015 by ScottRichards10

[daz_4]

This winter is a disaster for cold lovers so far (not so much for me but it would still be nice to get some stable cold period). December was 2.6°C above average here and January is even worse so far. It's safe to say that majority of forecasts on the forum were dead wrong.

[richardc1983]

They predicted -15c tonight across the country, were no where near that here in Leeds! Hovering at 1c on the car!

[James M]

They predicted -15c tonight across the country, were no where near that here in Leeds! Hovering at 1c on the car!

Who on earth forecast -15°c across the country? I didn't see any one. BBC forecast down to -12°c perhaps over the snowfields in the Scottish highlands but that's about it.

Having said that it does seem to be warmer than forecast so far. -4°c to -9°c was predicticted for rural spots in Northern England.

[richardc1983]

Who on earth forecast -15°c across the country? I didn't see any one. BBC forecast down to -12°c perhaps over the snowfields in the Scottish highlands but that's about it.

Having said that it does seem to be warmer than forecast so far. -4°c to -9°c was predicticted for rural spots in Northern England.

I know utter tripe, it's been above freezing the last few nights in Leeds!

[summer blizzard]

Looking at the telleconections and it looks like the PDO and QBO are more one standard deviation from average so i've taken them as a strong signal.

 

1993 - 3.2

1987 - 4.9

1986 - 3.6

1976 - 5.2

 

2007 - 5.4

2005 - 3.7

1979 - 5.7

 

You need to roll forward for February (those are Q4 years so 1993 becomes Feb 94) but 5 of the 7 analogues suggest a CET that is within 1C of average either side. A look at the map for them does show northern blocking but a threat of it being west based, the jet is obliterated into March though.

[feb1991blizzard]

There is a serious low height anomaly showing over Europe on the 6z GEFS mean.

[damianslaw]

Just passing the mid point of meteorological  winter, and so far, its been a very changeable one for all, but rather too much mild dank weather for my liking but relieved somewhat by colder polar maritime incursions during early-mid Dec, 2 days of snow cover on the 12th and 13th Dec and 2 separate surprise snowfalls here, a shortlived dry frosty period 27-30th Dec with an ice day here and a cold typical spell starting last Friday and looking to last exactly a week with some snow showers. At least it has felt more like winter on many a day unlike last year.

 

In an average year, the atlantic tends to quieten during late Jan and notably so as we move through February, increasing the chances of more blocked conditions taking hold not necessarily of the cold variety but chances of cold blocked weather occurring are much higher in February than December and January and we still have March..

[syed2878]

2-5CM of snow tonight?! it's jaffa cakesing down here with rain than snow. This winter really has taken the jaffa cakes as for those folks who forecasting cold in feb good luck to you because i can't see it happening. all these strat warming opi and October November snow cover it's all a fantasy and hope casting in my view. Though we had a small strat warming it didn't make much of a different. All these promising signals before the start of winter didn't bare fruit this time around looks like the MJO has been in the driving seet this time and manage to overrode those signals. or have i got the wrong end of the stic? As for lot of the strat forecasts again these didn't get pass the 240h mark. Credit to the metoffice  though they did say this winter wouldn't be anything to sing and dance about and they have been bang on the money.

[Summer Sun]

For next week the beeb are going for a return to what we've had most of this winter a day or two of milder, wetter & windier weather then a day or two of something a little bit colder and a little bit wintry and so on

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/30904485

[Peter H]

Still nothing to speak of with regard to snow at this end. The charts really kept us going for a few days, but the severe cold never really came off. Charts for the next two weeks look pretty dire.

A wee skiff last Thursday/Friday but that was about it, so it's looking increasingly likely as if this will be a largely snowless frost free winter yet again.

Parts of the west of NI did have quite a few bad snowy days last week, but it never managed it down here.

[Peter H]

Who on earth forecast -15°c across the country?

Probably James Madden

[SE Blizzards]

Anyone who wants to see what a REAL UK freeze looks like then i suggest taking a look at the latest CFS run.

 

A deep UK freeze starting Mid february, and apart from 4 or 5 days in the 3rd week or March, the freeze continues until Early April.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=540&code=0&carte=0&mode=0&run=4

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=540&code=0&carte=0&mode=2&run=4

 

Edited January 21, 2015 by SE Blizzards

[MP-R]

Mid-Feb to early March - great, anything after that is a bit late unfortunately. 

[snowblues]

Them CFS runs look stunning,them sort of charts keep me going on the hunt for cold/snow.Well the first part is right for the medium term in the latest model out puts with a high in the Atlantic.Just needs a push into Greenland.Not to much to ask.

[hillbilly]

Mid-Feb to early March - great, anything after that is a bit late unfortunately. 

Was not march/april 2013 no good?,april 1986,april 1981 or march 1947?

[Bristawl Si]

Was not march/april 2013 no good?,april 1986,april 1981 or march 1947?

March/April 2013 was cold and dry here in the SW.

All it succeeded in delivering was unusually high energy bills for those two months.

March has delivered snow events to the SW, in my lifetime, on a handful of occasions, and certainly in Bristol i cannot remember one March snow event that lasted more than half a day.

Once 20 days of February have passed that's generally our chance of a decent snowy spell gone, until the following Winter (imby).

[MP-R]

Was not march/april 2013 no good?,april 1986,april 1981 or march 1947?

 

Was living in Spain at the time. Wasn't born in 1986 haha. Cold Marches are so few and far between I just don't get excited by them. Roughly 21st December - 21st February is the window I prefer wintry spells in, after that you can keep them (lengthy ones anyway). 2013 was just cold and dry according to my records with only a dusting if that of snow on the 11th and March 2006 was just cold and grey after the snowfall of the 12th.

[damianslaw]

First half of March has in many a year been as cold or colder than an average December, and in the north can be brutal still with plenty of cold weather. In an average year the atlantic traditionally goes on its annual slumber around middle of February and comes out of it in June just in time for summer. March is more likely to deliver blocked northerly and easterly set ups than early-mid winter. Northerlies as well often surface and can pack a very wintry punch.

[MP-R]

First half of March has in many a year been as cold or colder than an average December, and in the north can be brutal still with plenty of cold weather. In an average year the atlantic traditionally goes on its annual slumber around middle of February and comes out of it in June just in time for summer. March is more likely to deliver blocked northerly and easterly set ups than early-mid winter. Northerlies as well often surface and can pack a very wintry punch.

 

I've always been wary of this 'slumber'. If that were the case there would be no March gales and April showers. May is also one of my wetter months of the year on average because of tendency towards the Atlantic. I'm not denying blocked weather in March, it just rarely seems to be of a cold variety. Down here, March's equalling of early December tends to come from night time minima rather than maxima. Nights are colder but daytime maxima are mostly higher than early December, unless of course we get a March cold spell or December mild spell.

 

As for April, I think the last time I actually saw noteworthy snow in April was way back on 14th April 1999 - also the latest date in spring to see a covering of snow in my lifetime.

[Peter H]

Anyone who wants to see what a REAL UK freeze looks like then i suggest taking a look at the latest CFS run.

 

A deep UK freeze starting Mid february, and apart from 4 or 5 days in the 3rd week or March, the freeze continues until Early April.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=540&code=0&carte=0&mode=0&run=4

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=540&code=0&carte=0&mode=2&run=4

 

Are you attempting to out do James Madden by any chance

Edited January 21, 2015 by Peter H

[SE Blizzards]

Are you attempting to out do James Madden by any chance

 

Ha.

 

I'm not, but the CFS clearly is.

 

Maybe that's the model James uses for his forecasts? Lol.

Although having said that, the CFS has been continuously throwing out mild muck the last few weeks, so i doubt he's been using that. He's most probably got his very own super cold computer model that none of us get to see to base all his Winter forecasts on.

 

It was just a pleasant surprise when i viewed the CFS earlier so that's why i posted it's latest run.

Purely just for fun of course 

Edited January 22, 2015 by SE Blizzards