Winter 2014-15 thread

[Summer Sun]

WSI's December update covering January to March

 

WSI Europe: Colder Weather to Become More Common Northern/Western Europe as Winter Progresses

 

Colder High Pressure to Become More Dominant as Atlantic Blocking Increases

 

Andover, MA, 22 December 2014 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects widespread below-normal temperatures across Scandinavia, UK, and parts of northwestern mainland Europe for the January-March period, with above-normal temperatures common elsewhere.

According to WSI Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford: “We feel that the transition to a colder pattern as we head towards the last week of December and into early January is a ‘shot across the bow’ with regards to the pattern during the remainder of the winter. Most of our seasonal signals point to increased chances for North Atlantic blocking (negative NAO) as we head into the back half of winter, and our forecast reflects this expectation for colder risks with time. The occurrence of a sudden stratospheric warming event would increase the odds of cold even further, and we continue to monitor this possibility. We feel that the cold risks will be focused across northern and western sections of Europe during the next three months.â€

In January, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region – Colder than normal west, warmer than normal east
UK – Colder than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

In February, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region – Colder than normal
UK – Colder than normal
Northern Mainland – Colder than normal
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

In March, WSI forecasts:

 

Nordic Region – Colder than normal
UK – Colder than normal
Northern Mainland – Colder than normal
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

http://www.wsi.com/2e8cc062-b866-4cd2-8ca0-a2bc44f11ab8/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

[SE Blizzards]

A Wintry last 2 weeks of January forecast by Simon Keeling....

 

http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtvsimonnew.php?ID=1248

 

Gavin P's latest video below

 

Much Colder Second Half Of January With CFS And GFS (4/1/15)

 

Edited January 4, 2015 by SE Blizzards

[Peter H]

Yep charts at the end of the latest models are looking increasingly encouraging.

Even next week looks quite cold, but I'll not hold my breath. We've seen this kind of set up vanish before.

Edited January 4, 2015 by Peter H

[feb1991blizzard]

This is quite a stonking chart for March, only a degree above freezing in some parts!!!!

 

 

 

The Feb one is none too shabby either.

Edited January 4, 2015 by feb1991blizzard

[SE Blizzards]

This is quite a stonking chart for March, only a degree above freezing in some parts!!!!

 

 

 

The Feb one is none too shabby either.

 

Yes, unbelievable latest run of the CFS...

 

Mean temps for February/March...

 

 

 

One can dream...

[Gustywind]

I do expect to see increasing colder intervals through the rest of the winter (particularly Feb), although would still expect an above average January overall, Feb possibly below average.

This will be linked to a decline in zonal strength as the winter matures, with a gradual relaxing of the positive NAO, to more neutral values eventually.

The trick with winter forecasting seems to me to be around working out which of the very many pattern drivers is likely to dominate and override the rest. Those going for a colder winter focused on the OPI, SAI and QBO, but something else has overridden their signal to date.

This could be the solar maximum, warm ocean anomalies or MJO, or something else completely different!

In a way it's great that the weather is so hard to predict, it would be pretty boring if we knew what was going to happen when, months in advance!

The best bit of winter forecasting I've seen to date was Glacier Points 2010/11 forecast. He more or less called Dec 10 well in advance of professional bodies like the Met Office, who I recall went for a milder winter originally. He accurately called the end of the spell also as well as the milder conditions likely in Jan/Feb 11. He got the dominant drivers spot in that winter.

[Weather-history]

This is quite a stonking chart for March, only a degree above freezing in some parts!!!!

 

 

 

The Feb one is none too shabby either.

I hope this spring is a meteorological fascinating one. It's 20 years since spring 1995, one of my favourite springs as it had all variations.

As for this winter, I t's been a strange feeling winter. It doesn't feel like it has been wintry even though I have seen more frosts than last winter thus far and the field behind me was snow covered from Boxing Day night to New Year's Eve, the longest period such period since December 2010.

[Thunderbolt_]

As much as I do like to see very cold weather in winter, the last thing I want is for it to linger on well into March and April, like it did in 2013. If we have an exceptionally cold second half of January, a very cold February, and maybe a cold first week of March then I'll be very happy indeed. But please, no March/early April 2013 again.

[Gustywind]

As much as I do like to see very cold weather in winter, the last thing I want is for it to linger on well into March and April, like it did in 2013. If we have an exceptionally cold second half of January, a very cold February, and maybe a cold first week of March then I'll be very happy indeed. But please, no March/early April 2013 again.

I don't think we will see another Mar/apr 13 again for some time, like Dec 10 it was an exceptional event. My only regret with it was the snow event of March 22-24, we got a good 15cms here but pretty much all the accumulating snow was after dark due to the time of year. I'd love to see that storm in January, who knows how much snow would've accumulated had it happened then!

[Thunderbolt_]

I don't think we will see another Mar/apr 13 again for some time, like Dec 10 it was an exceptional event. My only regret with it was the snow event of March 22-24, we got a good 15cms here but pretty much all the accumulating snow was after dark due to the time of year. I'd love to see that storm in January, who knows how much snow would've accumulated had it happened then!

 

Yes, if we'd had the March 2013 synoptics in January, then we would have had a real deep freeze. It was cold in March, but in January... well.

 

One thing I have noticed though, is we are overdue a cold February. February 2012 nearly did it, but the block shifted around mid-month and directed some very mild air towards us, and that was the story for the second half. Maybe this February will be our time. The charts certainly look interesting!

[SE Blizzards]

Latest Simon Keeling video.

 

COLD AND SNOW AFTER STORMY SPELL...

 

 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

date wrong for a kick off!

[March Blizzard]

As much as I do like to see very cold weather in winter, the last thing I want is for it to linger on well into March and April, like it did in 2013. If we have an exceptionally cold second half of January, a very cold February, and maybe a cold first week of March then I'll be very happy indeed. But please, no March/early April 2013 again.

I love late winter cold. I'd really like to see what March is truly capable of, it's a month that can produce severe cold yet really struggles to sustain it for more than a few weeks. I'm encouraged by 1947, a March with temperatures below -20C and which had a CET of -0.2C until the 15th. Also, we don't have to go far back to 2013 to see that even late March can produce ice days and subzero means. However, there always seems to be a mild week/10 days to "spoil" the fun. 1947 warmed up dramatically after mid month, 2013 had a mild first 9 days and 2006 was very cold until the last week or so.

I'd love to see a cold, start-to-finish March, a 1-10 1947 and 11-31 2013 would be my dream scenario for the month. Hopefully 2015 pulls it out the bag, but I ain't holding my breath.

[MP-R]

As much as I do like to see very cold weather in winter, the last thing I want is for it to linger on well into March and April, like it did in 2013. If we have an exceptionally cold second half of January, a very cold February, and maybe a cold first week of March then I'll be very happy indeed. But please, no March/early April 2013 again.

 

Gotta agree with you there Scott! Cold becomes a hindrance by the second half of March. Ideally I would like a cold first third, stormy middle third, then a springlike final third, much like 2004 or even 2005 which just had two halves. Snow rarely lasts here into March anyway.

 

In the meantime, I just want this Atlantic weather to sod off. Normally it's done and dusted by January with the dregs left behind but the vortex seems to be constantly strengthening after each weakening. Fingers crossed for a wintry second half to the month. A lengthy bitterly cold anticyclone butted by a heavy snow event at each end would be lovely.

[damianslaw]

Gotta agree with you there Scott! Cold becomes a hindrance by the second half of March. Ideally I would like a cold first third, stormy middle third, then a springlike final third, much like 2004 or even 2005 which just had two halves. Snow rarely lasts here into March anyway.

 

In the meantime, I just want this Atlantic weather to sod off. Normally it's done and dusted by January with the dregs left behind but the vortex seems to be constantly strengthening after each weakening. Fingers crossed for a wintry second half to the month. A lengthy bitterly cold anticyclone butted by a heavy snow event at each end would be lovely.

 

 

In an average year, first half of Jan typically is very atlantic dominated and stormy, with weakening taking place through the second half. Few Januaries in the last 30 years have produced a sustained cold atlantic blocked first half to Jan, 1985, 1987, 1997 and 2010 only real examples. Second half of winter is far more likely to produce a sustained cold spell than first half, much like summer, second half July and August far more likely to produce heatwave conditions than June and first half of July.

Edited January 4, 2015 by damianslaw

[Hotspur62]

As much as I do like to see very cold weather in winter, the last thing I want is for it to linger on well into March and April, like it did in 2013. If we have an exceptionally cold second half of January, a very cold February, and maybe a cold first week of March then I'll be very happy indeed. But please, no March/early April 2013 again.

Totally agree with this ,especially as I work outside for a living and March 2013 was not much fun,even down here in the Se which wasn't as badly affected as most of the country.I was very hopeful that a pattern change would have been underway by now but that has all gone up in smoke and it looks like the earliest we may see a change to colder weather will be from 17th at the earliest.However, we have still had 6 frosts this winter so far which is double that of the whole of winter put together so at least that is an improvement. The latest CFS runs for Feb and March are just a coldies dream but probably have about 1% chance of verifying. I would be happy with a severe 1 week cold period at end of Jan/eary Feb which would give us all our snow and make vast majority very happy on this forum .Fingers Crossed LOL!! 

[Bristawl Si]

As much as I do like to see very cold weather in winter, the last thing I want is for it to linger on well into March and April, like it did in 2013. If we have an exceptionally cold second half of January, a very cold February, and maybe a cold first week of March then I'll be very happy indeed. But please, no March/early April 2013 again.

Totally agree Scott.

March 13 was cold down here but predominately dry. Same with most of April that year.

The only thing it did was to blow my energy bills sky high for those 2 months.

I'm all for a decent cold and snowy February or late January for that matter, but give me an early warm Spring starting by end of Feb/early March every year.

So far, this Winter has been truly awful down here, not a flake of snow. Long way to go i know - a week like 1st week of Feb 09 will suffice now, for me.

Hats off to the Meto re their contingency forecast issued in November (i think).

[I remember Atlantic 252]

In an average year, first half of Jan typically is very atlantic dominated and stormy, with weakening taking place through the second half. Few Januaries in the last 30 years have produced a sustained cold atlantic blocked first half to Jan, 1985, 1987, 1997 and 2010 only real examples. Second half of winter is far more likely to produce a sustained cold spell than first half, much like summer, second half July and August far more likely to produce heatwave conditions than June and first half of July.

 

I do agree with this, you say it every year, but keep posting it, damn correct to me

[MP-R]

In an average year, first half of Jan typically is very atlantic dominated and stormy, with weakening taking place through the second half. Few Januaries in the last 30 years have produced a sustained cold atlantic blocked first half to Jan, 1985, 1987, 1997 and 2010 only real examples. Second half of winter is far more likely to produce a sustained cold spell than first half, much like summer, second half July and August far more likely to produce heatwave conditions than June and first half of July.

 

Interesting you say that as it's very much hit and miss with Atlantic weather here in January. 2001, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2009, 2010 and to a certain degree 2011 were all devoid of Atlantic onslaughts in the supposed Atlantic first half. Compare that to December which tends to be a much more Atlantic-dominated month, as is November.

 

Regarding the second part of your reply, I'd say it's been the reverse in recent years. The weather has very much gone off by August with the highest temperatures reserved for June and July.

Edited January 4, 2015 by MP-R

[sundog]

In an average year, first half of Jan typically is very atlantic dominated and stormy, with weakening taking place through the second half. Few Januaries in the last 30 years have produced a sustained cold atlantic blocked first half to Jan, 1985, 1987, 1997 and 2010 only real examples. Second half of winter is far more likely to produce a sustained cold spell than first half, much like summer, second half July and August far more likely to produce heatwave conditions than June and first half of July.

Most of any cold or snow in jan that i have had during the last 20-30 yrs has happened during the first half of the month. Second half of jan here has seen very little in the way of snow or proper cold. I honestly cant remember the last time i saw a decent snowfall in the second half of jan or even a small snowcover. I missed out on 2013 as the cold air over the uk europe never made it far enough westwards.

To sum up the last 20-30 second half of jans here regards cold and snow one word sums it up. Disaster!!!

[damianslaw]

Most of any cold or snow in jan that i have had during the last 20-30 yrs has happened during the first half of the month. Second half of jan here has seen very little in the way of snow or proper cold. I honestly cant remember the last time i saw a decent snowfall in the second half of jan or even a small snowcover. I missed out on 2013 as the cold air over the uk europe never made it far enough westwards.

To sum up the last 20-30 second half of jans here regards cold and snow one word sums it up. Disaster!!!

 

 

I don't have the statistics but I believe the coldest part of the year on average is the period roughly 20 Jan through to mid February, not necessarily the snowiest but chances of snowfall occurring are at their greatest during the period in question. I'm surprised you have seen little in the way of cold weather in second half of Jan in last 20-30 years, 1991, 1992, 1996, 2001,  2010, 2013 all produced relatively cold conditions (not always snowy mind). I guess you were not best placed to see the snowy northerlies of late Jan 03 and 04 as well. You are right in saying the degree of cold seen in Jan has been greater in the first half compared to the second in the last 20-30 years thanks to events of early-mid Jan 1987, 1997 and 2010 - but equally we have seen some exceptionally very mild first halves to January as well, good recent examples being 2005, 2007, 2008, 2012 and 2014.

[sundog]

I don't have the statistics but I believe the coldest part of the year on average is the period roughly 20 Jan through to mid February, not necessarily the snowiest but chances of snowfall occurring are at their greatest during the period in question. I'm surprised you have seen little in the way of cold weather in second half of Jan in last 20-30 years, 1991, 1992, 1996, 2001,  2010, 2013 all produced relatively cold conditions (not always snowy mind). I guess you were not best placed to see the snowy northerlies of late Jan 03 and 04 as well. You are right in saying the degree of cold seen in Jan has been greater in the first half compared to the second in the last 20-30 years thanks to events of early-mid Jan 1987, 1997 and 2010 - but equally we have seen some exceptionally very mild first halves to January as well, good recent examples being 2005, 2007, 2008, 2012 and 2014.

I think it was a case of ireland (or at least my location in ireland) being less affected by the cold weather in the second half of the jans in the years you mention compared with britan. Jan 2013 was a good example with the cold air not really making it over the irish sea.

[Peter H]

Well, they sure kept us all going with that one for a few days.

 

Latest charts for the end of next week gone pear shaped now. Any hopes of a prolonged cold spell now faded, as usual.

 

I think that happened a lot last winter as well :(

 

[damianslaw]

Well, they sure kept us all going with that one for a few days.

 

Latest charts for the end of next week gone pear shaped now. Any hopes of a prolonged cold spell now faded, as usual.

 

I think that happened a lot last winter as well :(

 

 

 

A recent example of a pattern change that occurred on the back of a very lengthy zonal mild set up was late January 2012, yes not a particularly epic cold spell, but decent all the same lasting up to 2 weeks with mean temps not too far from 0 degrees, it came thanks to build of heights from the SW (azores) ridging over the country and into Scandi joining developing heights to our east.

 

Last year was quite exceptional with the relentless onslaught of stormy weather. Many winters have delivered a reprieve from the atlantic during the second half even if it was a shortlived northerly episode - certainly no reason to call off hopes of any cold weather this side of March, 'prolonged' the odds of anything prolonged are always stacked against mind in the UK and are therefore always a bonus.

[TEITS]

Still plenty of time for this winter to be fondly remembered as a classic. Some may think im mad saying this but like I said a few days ago, if for example the last week of Jan turns very cold with heavy snowfalls and this continues for the first week of Feb then we should really be satisfied with this. When I think back to cold spells in my childhood the winters did not consist of constant blizzards. I think we need to accept the climate we live in. I also think the other reason for such recent negative posts is a combination of last winter and our current one.

 

I remember the harsh cold spell of 1981 which was far colder, more snowfall than Dec 2010 in Peterborough, the blizzards of 78/79, the biting E,lys of the late 80s and the Feb 91 E,ly. Yet none of these cold spells were as memorable as Jan 1987 and yet this winter was largely mild except the freak 7 day E,ly.. I still remember to this day the dreadful experience of walking to school in a blinding blizzard when max temps were -7C and this wasn't taking the wind chill into account. I also vivdly remember how heavy and constant the snow was.

 

So in other words plenty of time left yet!