Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas

[Barry12]

Snow on Sunday to lower levels is possible

 

 

-7 uppers in there :smiliz19:

Edited December 23, 2014 by Barry95

[Cloud 10]

Comedy gold

 

 

 

Lets hope its not comedy  cold.  

 

[Stuie]

Comedy gold from the ECMWF,

 

If this was to come off, would make a mockery of looking at Ensemble means etc..

 

 

Seen the 850`s Matt?

 

[phil nw.]

I don't normally comment as the runs come out but again as we get to T120hrs it's the Americans v Euro models with the latter much more inclined to build the Atlantic ridge early on.

Until this is resolved then the later evolution of the 500hPa pattern can't be resolved with any confidence.

[Barry12]

Comedy gold from the ECMWF,

 

Hahahahahha...wait what am I supposed to be laughing at?

 

Backs the UKMO and looks cold :w00t:

[Met4Cast]

So.. to summarise, we're still absolutely no closer in knowing the track of this weekends low

[Downpour]

ECM goes with Exeter.

Interesting.

[SLEETY]

lol gfs in the bin

[Long haul to mild]

this evenings GFS is even quicker than the last at flattening the pattern and only one way of going and that is a azores blowtorch grim for all coldies out there

 

 

 

GFS is correct then? Can you explain why you think this is the correct outcome??  Cheers

 

Yes, I would like to know too, have seen a few posts this evening claiming the same thing. Wonder if it is just a case of people assuming the worst? GFS seems to be on its own with the flattening of the pattern so quickly, and it is well known for doing that.

[gottolovethisweather]

I don't normally comment as the runs come out but again as we get to T120hrs it's the Americans v Euro models with the latter much more inclined to build the Atlantic ridge early on.

Until this is resolved then the later evolution of the 500hPa pattern can't be resolved with any confidence.

 

Indeed Phil, hard to know what will happen in 144 hours or thereabouts but to me that won't matter to cold lovers if snow were to settle beforehand and produce a covering for some lucky folk. This prospect is one I personally would be looking forward to see developing, bringing back memories of old style WInters. A dumping of snow followed up by a stubborn HP cell which seemingly doesn't want to shift for days upon end, could this be the new elephant in the room, I wonder?

 

Too many ifs, buts and maybes right now but I sure am enjoying the ride. 

[SW Saltire]

So.. to summarise, we're still absolutely no closer in knowing the track of this weekends low

Yep, I'm a little unsure why a few people were saying 'the afternoon runs will decide this' etc. I think it will be very close to the actual event before we know if there is snow potential and (probably more likely) where the strongest winds and rain will occur.

However, I do believe it's been a pretty positive set of runs for coldies with the UKMO and ECM firmly on board with a colder spell of some description thereafter, with significant potential (there is that word again haha) for a more significant cold spell to develop in the medium/longer term

Although, the GFS can't be completely disregarded but the odds and recent trends do appear to be 'our' side

Let's hope we see a (probably only incremental knowing the GFS) change in the 18z with some kind of move to the Euros... But I won't be holding my breath

Edited December 23, 2014 by SW Saltire

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

ECM looks to be onto a full on Easterly at 120 hours out !! What a period of model watching this is turning out to be! 

[Banbury]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014122312/ECH1-168.GIF?23-0

 

Cold and frosty under the HP

[legritter]

I know its early times with tonights model runs but to me an increasing risk of high pressure hanging around after this weekends low pressure slips away ,direction still not nailed on .charts at the moment, fills me with christmas spirit [the weather variety ]I know we are aware that each day brings a different outlook but at the moment each day looks like a different book not page .well ecm out soon ,full run and i expect to see more blocking close to our shores .dont forget patience is the key ,a good nights sleep and a different day on the models ,If i dont get time to post again ,Happy christmas to all my fellow posters and partners in crime ,[[what crime i hear you say ]the crime of wishing for thick thick snow with no end in sight ,   :smiliz64:

[gottolovethisweather]

So.. to summarise, we're still absolutely no closer in knowing the track of this weekends low

 

In the coming days, I think the pros will slowly favour one that tracks SE across us or via the North Sea out into the low countries, but even then this is pure conjecture on my part. Trust me, if the current media forecasts are weighing up several options still then there is no way any of us should discount one run over another. 

 

Folk should pay attention to the latest Fax Charts if at all concerned about travelling around said timeframes or quite literally leave things to the last minute.

Edited December 23, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[bluearmy]

getting close to proper undercut territory on ecm 12z op within a reasonable timeframe.

[Stuie]

Interesting from the ECM. That Azores ridge has to compete with Scandi heights increasing, that includes southern Scandi as well. The Pacific ridge sharpens like a knife with heights increasing.. Surely that has to promote more colder air into Europe. This isn`t boring.

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Nice chart, cold and frosty at the surface with the Azores ridge being sheered away. As BA says, there is an undercut chance which could start to pull colder air in from the east.

Undercut achieved

Low single figure maxima for most and becoming bitter along the south coast.

Edited December 23, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Banbury]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014122312/ECH1-192.GIF?23-0

 

ECM still looking ok

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ECM looking more than okay, Sundays snow in the SE won't go anywhere, ice days there 29th-31st,

[Cheshire Freeze]

Could this be the most convoluted way to an Easterly ever? ECM is very good out to 192 hrs this evening and importantly has back up from the UKMO.

[Banbury]

ECM looking more than okay, Sundays snow in the SE won't go anywhere, ice days there 29th-31st,

I'm not too sure about Ice days, that's a tad optimistic, temps will struggle but not that much

[Timmytour]

The to's and fro's continue.... I imagine what we have is the kind of set up which puts the UK on a knife-edge between the very mild and the cold..... and the potential for some real cold exists further down the line, but because that potential exists, the potential for the very mild does to if things are just a couple of hundred miles adrift as they rise or fall.

It puts me a bit in mind of 1983....potential that kept flattening out until, after a very mild Jan, it finally delivered in Feb.

I certainly hope that we don't have to wait that long and endure that short a winter, but I must admit I do tend to favour GFS solutions usually so I am a little worried. A couple more similar runs from it and I'll be very worried!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Incredible omega type block over the Northern UK. Watch out for retrogression out to Greenland/Iceland if this is the outcome aswell !!

[nick sussex]

I see the GFS is still going it alone. Lets put subjectivity aside and deal with the bare facts, no other major model backs the GFS at T96hrs.

 

The ECM and UKMO together at T96hrs are extremely unlikely to be wrong, I'm finding it hard to remember the last time that happened but in terms of the GFS its the one model that will hang onto a wrong solution at that point.

 

NCEP have not used the GFS at all for their short term outlook over in the USA after today, the best it manages is being part of a compromise solution for tonight.

 

NCEP medium term prefers the slower solutions as these best fit the teleconnections.