Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas

[Eugene]

Has anybody mentioned NAVGEM 12Z, it's the pick of tonights runs which gives us the best chance of a scandy high forming.

[Iceberg]

I know alot of peeps are complaining about the GFS, but its actually pretty similar to EC, apart from the direction of the Low over the weekend, which then creates a stuck block near us.

Lets assume the EC, Meto and GFS P are correct and the low moves South to SE and we get the high in place.

If we look at the energy coming from the East Coast US at T192, its largely created thanks to intense cold flooding down the East Coast. This is pretty well modelled by all the Majors. The extent of the Cold means a very southerly exit from US. If we look at the Jet as it crosses over, it heads straight to the med, same as the EC. With the block in place further north, the GFS ops would provide a cracking undercut to the high to keep it in place. (Check out the lack of JS at T192 near greenland, iceland etc providing a useful space for some retrogression.

 

[Man With Beard]

Latest NOAA builds positive anomaly over Scandi - now I do recall similar NOAA charts in the summer leading to easterlies when T0 arrived. However, my confidence in this anomaly chart has taken a knock this week as its monster North Atlantic anomaly was completely ditched over the space of 48 hours.

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

[Downpour]

Maybe we should bring in the Raspberries as they do for the worst films. The GFS would win that hands down!

 

Judging by the short ensembles for De Bilt theres a chasm between the GEFS and ECM ensembles, I'd be minded to dump the GFS tonight, it can go to the Raspberries with a rubbish table near the toilets!

 

The GFS looks far too quick with flattening the pattern, not long now to the GFS 18hrs run, I would be shocked if that doesn't at least start edging towards the Euros.

Ha - yes Nick. Be keen to see the 18z shortly. To be honest I have just finished for the holidays and have had one too many burgundies but will be staying up for the 18z, coming to a cinema near you soon.

[bluearmy]

ECM blue control run seems to show a snowy easterly for debilt, not heavy snow though.

Very light precip showing as the euro trough sinks away. The extended Dutch control probably showing more of wintry interest as the jet on a nw/se axis disrupts the trough across the uk and likely keeps de bilt on the cold side whilst we alternate but never probably go cold enough (just wet). strong scrussian ridge diverting the jet se and the Azores pulls back enough to allow the trough to disrupt se continually. another option I suppose which so,e of the gefs have shown.

[nick sussex]

Ha - yes Nick. Be keen to see the 18z shortly. To be honest I have just finished for the holidays and have had one too many burgundies but will be staying up for the 18z, coming to a cinema near you soon.

The burgundy might come in handy if the GFS pulls out another shocker! lol I'm quite optimistic seeing the extended ECM ensembles, theres still plenty of support to extend the cold. Much depends on whether we can get some shortwave energy splitting and heading underneath the high to support it..

[Stuie]

Looking into so much detail ,that far out will result in depression! Analyize  the overall trends of the models , its gonna turn much colder, but the finer details of precip etc wont be possible to forecast to very nearer the actual timeframe....... :smiliz23:

 

Sorry Anyweather, didn`t realise DAM equated to precipitation but thanks for saying that. Learning like the rest of us.

[Paul_1978]

Regional forecasts I find are quite poor when you then watch the following National forecast

Just a quick recommendation which hopefully the mods will allow - I set the daily BBC weather for the week (formerly Weatherview) to record on series link, on daily at approx 01.00 hours. Goes into much greater detail than the 18.30/10.35 forecasts, and goes out to 10 days too. They even add rationale and a touch of science to these forecasts which they don't do after the news ;-)

I then watch it every morning....

[Downpour]

Here she comes: GFS rolling out......

[Mark Neal.]

Just a quick recommendation which hopefully the mods will allow - I set the daily BBC weather for the week (formerly Weatherview) to record on series link, on daily at approx 01.00 hours. Goes into much greater detail than the 18.30/10.35 forecasts, and goes out to 10 days too. They even add rationale and a touch of science to these forecasts which they don't do after the news ;-)

I then watch it every morning....

The 21:55pm forecast most evenings goes out to 7-10days usually, looking at the long range..

 

Anyway moving on... GFS 18Z is rolling. Hold on tight.

[Allseasons-Si]

Here is my take on a few models that look a bit more interesting looking at the latest,for the newer folk on here i will explain(although i am still on a learning curve still),this graph has just updated showing a more of a easterly type scenario developing as you can see with the black line i have drawn

 

 

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?r=midden&type=eps_pluim

 

also looking at the berlin graph below,you can see there is a marked drop in temps

 

 

http://www.meteo24.fr/fr/home/meteo-france-et-europe/passion-meteo/ensemble-de-previsions.html?eps=london

 

great snow spike on here too

 

 

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&ecmwfpluim15

 

so when looking for an easterly this is what we should be looking at,i know it's not set in stone yes but if these trends carry on from now,things could get interesting

 

and the noaa 10 - 14 day 500 mb hight anomoly,i have ilustrated below that there maybe a battleground scenario developing by the arrows and the devided battleground line in the middle

 

 

all fun model watching at the moment :smiliz19:

 

one last note as i may not be on over the Christmas period but will try,have a merry Christmas all of you and all the best for the new year.

Edited December 23, 2014 by Allseasons-si

[Eskimo]

What's the 18z up to now? Low seems to be going straight into the UK. 

[Cloud 10]

Looks like the 18z is shifting towards the ECM and UKMO solution early in its run.

 

Best shown using a jetstream comparison between the 12z and the 18z at around 72 hrs.

 

12z..  18z..

Edited December 23, 2014 by Cloud 10

[Ali1977]

Talks of the ECM showing a near SSW event, things may get interesting in Jan.

[karlos1983]

GFS has a stubborn side apparently. I'll be dammed.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

What's the 18z up to now? Low seems to be going straight into the UK. 

 

Ay legend underneath chart, great to see GFS trending towards ECM  and UKMO

[Met4Cast]

Drama continues.

 

18z develops random shortwave across Central Southern England

 

[Mark Neal.]

GFSP. 66hrs. 

Looks like low centre just near Ireland?!

[shaky]

Unbelievable the shortwave is much further south this run and at a very early time frame!! Massive differences!!

[Matty M]

GFS smells the coffee, interesting times ahead

 

[Eskimo]

Something like 66 hours until that system hits the UK and the variations are still huge (albeit similar trend) in each model, isn't that incredible?

Edited December 23, 2014 by PerfectStorm

[Mucka]

Good evening , back from a very pleasant day out

already large "corrections" on GFS 18z.

 

 

 

Also nice to see the ridge being modelled as more stubborn today and the first hints of possible undercut as described yesterday evening.

All to play for and tomorrow mornings Euros will be more important than tonight's pub run by far as far as deciphering any trend goes.

Edited December 23, 2014 by Mucka

[snowy weather]

Drama continues.

 

18z develops random shortwave across Central Southern England

 

Weird.png

For a newbie, what does that mean?

Thanks mate

[igloo]

big changes this evening could well be a big snow event north of the border if this run is to verify that would be 2 in my location in a fortnight.still it could move even further south as we near 0z hour fingers crossed

 

 

Edited December 23, 2014 by igloo

[Mark Neal.]

GFS 90hrs -

 

GFSP 90hrs-