The Midlands - Weather Chat

[Midlands Ice Age]

 

Once again it's cloudy with no sunshine here and chilli. Not the best day, would be nice to have some sunshine warming things up slightly - but the Midlands is unfortunate to be a victim of one of the areas with the most cloud in the coming days.

Very odd how localised the weather can be under these conditions.

Here the temp is increasing steadily under a most gorgeous winter morning.

Nearly total deep blue sky with just a very few milky cirrus clouds and even they are moving away south.

Temperture in the sun is about 11C. Out of it about 5C but I suspect still cold in complete shade.

Off out for a walk now.

MIA

[Summer of 95]

It's odd isn't it. Presumably the difference is due to topography? I am surrounded to some extent or another by highish hills (>300m) all around, Clee Hill, the south Shropshire hills, Welsh hills and the Malverns. I'm not especially high at 93asl. I'm about a mile outside of the village proper, and that is a frost hollow too. Anyway, whatever the reason I am very hapy about it

I'm at almost exactly the same height too. But here is higher than most of the surrounding area, with a drop down to the river about a mile to the west and down towards town to the south. I wonder if that dip in temperature after 9am was due to cold air rising out of the valleys?

[marksp]

well lovely sunny day here this morning, bright blue sky, snow still on the hills but sadly not here now.

(and I have put the snow shovel back in the shed)

[Gord]

Quite a difference in forecasted temperatures today, Met Office going for 3c, other forecasts going for 7-9c. I suppose it must be the mist and fog causing the large range as forecasters are unsure where it will sit and where it will clear? Actual temperature right now is 4c.

[Will Padz]

Thick freezing fog.... -1c snow reminants still everywhere... Iced up pavements making for fun times getting up and down hill....

[Snowyowl9]

Temps ranging from 0 to 10c

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Made 7.4c here,still some frost in the shade though.

[picog]

Temp maxed out here at 9.8C. Extraordinary considering the frosty start.

[Terminal Moraine]

So, basically you're telling me I'm exaggerating, even though I have around 20 people backing me up? It almost smacks of jealously or something.  Funny you'll accept anecdotal 'evidence' from other periods in time, but just not the 1990 blizzard which affect Nuneaton worse than any other town.  I'll again leave you the link so you can gauge how deep the snow actually was.   https://www.facebook.com/groups/NuneatonMemories/10153136316631886/?notif_t=group_comment

 

I really am getting quite annoyed that you always seem to think that I'm either exaggerating or lying.  

I'm sure that Tony is neither accusing you of exaggerating or lying C.H but he is trying to point out that there is a distinct difference between the memory of trudging through 'snow up to your goolies' and the actual mean depth of level snow in the area which can only be determined by taking a number ( sometimes a lot ) of measurements and finding the average. Memory is a very subjective thing and although you have 20 or more people 'backing you up'  unless those 20 people actually went out and took a number of measurements of the depth of lying snow at various points they will merely be agreeing that they too remember thigh deep snow in the road and will be very unlikely to remember how deep the snow was in the areas where it wasn't thigh deep.

As an example of how easy it is to over estimate the depth of lying snow without measuring I'll mention the blizzard of January 1987. At that time I'd been keeping detailed records for over 20 years and as I floundered my way the 100 yards to my instrument site through snow 'goolie deep', to use your words, I was convinced that there must have been a snowfall of at least 60cm.

When I came to measure it the snow was indeed 50-70cm deep over quite large areas but although it appeared relatively level it had actually blown from elsewhere and after taking around 30 measurements of snow in the areas it had blown from, and those it had blown to, the actual mean depth was 37cm.

W.S Pike contributed a detailed account of the snowfall of December 1990 to Journal of Meteorology ( Vol 16. no'158 ) and quotes mean measured depths of between 30 and 42cm for the areas most severely affected, measured by both Met' Office stations and amateur observers contributing to Climatological Observers Link. These measurements were also tied in with the rainfall equivalent of the melted snow which tended to fall between 34 and 46 mm, the latter from my own station where there was a mean level depth of 38cm, this measurement obtained from the average of 22 separate measurements in areas where the snow had not obviously drifted.

It's also noted in the article that several rural hilly locations estimated depths of 60cm as being representative but that these estimates were considerably higher than the measured values and that such judgements were very subjective.

A map constructed by Pike to show the area of greatest snowfall shows it stretching in a relatively narrow band from from Warwickshire, through the West Midlands into Staffordshire and Derbyshire and then into North Yorkshire and Durham. The range of measured level depths in this zone ranges from 30-45 cm. Either side of this zone was another fairly narrow area ( wider to the west ) where mean depths were mostly between 20 and 30cm.

Some years ago I interviewed a number of residents in the area where I Iive about the winter of 1947 and the amount of snow there was around here. I asked people how much snow there was on the level, where it hadn't drifted and the figures quoted varied between 4 feet and 10 feet; memory tends to err towards the more extreme. I've studied a lot of photographs of the snow in this area from 1947 and it's  possible there may have been around 4 feet of undrifted snow but certainly not 6, 8 or 10. Most of the open areas were scoured of snow to a few inches whilst any obstructions were buried in huge drifts. Determining the mean depth of snow in blizzard situations is no easy matter but it needs to borne in mind that if there's two feet of snow in one place there might be another close by where there's only a few inches and both need to be considered.  Lots of measuring is the only answer. 

Edited February 8, 2015 by Terminal Moraine

[Midlands Ice Age]

 

Temps ranging from 0 to 10c

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Made 7.4c here,still some frost in the shade though.

Just got back in from my walk.

Superb out there. Not sure of my max temp, but it is still showing as 7.4C at 15:55.

Frost and ice still in the shade in the countryside, so it shows the effect of the extra heat being given us by the sun.

Looking at your table above, it shows how cold central Ireland and north west England have been today,with thick persistent freezing fog. Somw places at the top of our region seem to have stayed around freezing or only just above.

Quite incredible as you say.

It is going to be interesting to see what happens to the temperatures tonight.

MIA

[Summer of 95]

I'm sure that Tony is neither accusing you of exaggerating or lying C.H but he is trying to point out that there is a distinct difference between the memory of trudging through 'snow up to your goolies' and the actual mean depth of level snow in the area which can only be determined by taking a number ( sometimes a lot ) of measurements and finding the average. Memory is a very subjective thing and although you have 20 or more people 'backing you up'  unless those 20 people actually went out and took a number of measurements of the depth of lying snow at various points they will merely be agreeing that they too remember thigh deep snow in the road and will be very unlikely to remember how deep the snow was in the areas where it wasn't thigh deep.

As an example of how easy it is to over estimate the depth of lying snow without measuring I'll mention the blizzard of January 1987. At that time I'd been keeping detailed records for over 20 years and as I floundered my way the 100 yards to my instrument site through snow 'goolie deep', to use your words, I was convinced that there must have been a snowfall of at least 60cm.

When I came to measure it the snow was indeed 50-70cm deep over quite large areas but although it appeared relatively level it had actually blown from elsewhere and after taking around 30 measurements of snow in the areas it had blown from, and those it had blown to, the actual mean depth was 37cm.

W.S Pike contributed a detailed account of the snowfall of December 1990 to Journal of Meteorology ( Vol 16. no'158 ) and quotes mean measured depths of between 30 and 42cm for the areas most severely affected, measured by both Met' Office stations and amateur observers contributing to Climatological Observers Link. These measurements were also tied in with the rainfall equivalent of the melted snow which tended to fall between 34 and 46 mm, the latter from my own station where there was a mean level depth of 38cm, this measurement obtained from the average of 22 separate measurements in areas where the snow had not obviously drifted.

It's also noted in the article that several rural hilly locations estimated depths of 60cm as being representative but that these estimates were considerably higher than the measured values and that such judgements were very subjective.

A map constructed by Pike to show the area of greatest snowfall shows it stretching in a relatively narrow band from from Warwickshire, through the West Midlands into Staffordshire and Derbyshire and then into North Yorkshire and Durham. The range of measured level depths in this zone ranges from 30-45 cm. Either side of this zone was another fairly narrow area ( wider to the west ) where mean depths were mostly between 20 and 30cm.

Some years ago I interviewed a number of residents in the area where I Iive about the winter of 1947 and the amount of snow there was around here. I asked people how much snow there was on the level, where it hadn't drifted and the figures quoted varied between 4 feet and 10 feet; memory tends to err towards the more extreme. I've studied a lot of photographs of the snow in this area from 1947 and it's  possible there may have been around 4 feet of undrifted snow but certainly not 6, 8 or 10. Most of the open areas were scoured of snow to a few inches whilst any obstructions were buried in huge drifts. Determining the mean depth of snow in blizzard situations is no easy matter but it needs to borne in mind that if there's two feet of snow in one place there might be another close by where there's only a few inches and both need to be considered.  Lots of measuring is the only answer.

I'm sure there are exaggerations in many cases, but the distance between recording stations does mean local heavier falls might not be noticed in the official records. I've downloaded a lot of Metoffice Snow Surveys from the 80s and early 90s and the West Midlands is not well covered. There is Shawbury and Hednesford (the latter over 200m) but nothing in between. Nothing south from here until Longtown west of Hereford and Martley in the Malverns, nothing north until Northwich. Derbyshire on the other hand has loads of stations.

The depths from Shawbury don't match my memories. It says 2cm on 20 Nov 1988 and there was definitely more than that in Bayston Hill (just south of Shrewsbury). I remember sledging that day and it was proper sledging snow, the type that leaves white paths down the hill. And it came well over my toes. 2cm isn't enough for either. Also Feb 1991 says 7cm, I have a picture from then and it was similar to Dec 2010 (15cm). In the 1989-90 report it even mentions a fall of 5cm in Shrewsbury in December yet the tables show nothing at Shawbury. Hednesford often shows big depths, but it's much higher than Stafford or Birmingham so is not accurate for those places either.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

friday 13th washout, can't make it up really, all days either side of it dry

[Dancerwithwings]

Hi all, nice day to day in all, blue skies and a high of 9.2c felt very pleasant 

Although Feb still reminds us that we are in winter as temps are falling quickly now.. Currently at 2.4c

Edited February 8, 2015 by Dancerwithwings

[Snowyowl9]

 

Just got back in from my walk.

Superb out there. Not sure of my max temp, but it is still showing as 7.4C at 15:55.

Frost and ice still in the shade in the countryside, so it shows the effect of the extra heat being given us by the sun.

Looking at your table above, it shows how cold central Ireland and north west England have been today,with thick persistent freezing fog. Somw places at the top of our region seem to have stayed around freezing or only just above.

Quite incredible as you say.

It is going to be interesting to see what happens to the temperatures tonight.

MIA

Thick fog to the south of here but clear on the severn valley,the fog did just made it here at a thin level.

But I`m surprised at how quick temps have dropped its now -0.3c it feels much less cold the higher you go.

Mist has gone.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Hi all, nice day to day in all, blue skies and a high of 9.2c felt very pleasant 

Although Feb still reminds us that we are in winter as temps are falling quickly now.. Currently at 2.4c

 

blue skies gosh! full grey Stafford, 3.3C max

[Dancerwithwings]

blue skies gosh! full grey Stafford, 3.3C max

Courtesy of.... http://www.monkspathweather.org.uk/skyscape-cam/time-lapse/hourly-time-lapse.html ......Just Down the road.....Boot-i-full

[Gord]

Surprised there's been no weather warnings for fog this weekend. We've had a lot of warnings that have not been needed over the past 2 weeks but this dense fog really would justify one. Last night was really dense and looks like going the same way tonight.

[Summer of 95]

Fog descended at 4pm here, now about 150m visibility. But temperature is still stuck at 2C and seems reluctant to fall, it only reached 4C in the sunshine.

[picog]

Fog descended at 4pm here, now about 150m visibility. But temperature is still stuck at 2C and seems reluctant to fall, it only reached 4C in the sunshine.

Still clear skies here and temp dropped back to -2.4C. Temp dropped almost 7C between 5pm and 6pm. We eventually maxed out at a rather staggering 10.2C after a spring-like day with blue skies and very light winds.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Still clear skies here and temp dropped back to -2.4C. Temp dropped almost 7C between 5pm and 6pm. We eventually maxed out at a rather staggering 10.2C after a spring-like day with blue skies and very light winds.

 

weird that, mine's rising 3.7C now highest of day

[Gord]

Still clear skies here and temp dropped back to -2.4C. Temp dropped almost 7C between 5pm and 6pm. We eventually maxed out at a rather staggering 10.2C after a spring-like day with blue skies and very light winds.

 

That is quite staggering! Can believe it though! Funny that the Met Office had us down for a high of 3C today when I looked at the app this morning. Far too low a prediction. The fog must have cleared quicker than they thought. This is the problem with computer generated forecasts though. I do question having computer generated forecasts as the general public ones. A lot of people I know use that app (and the online forecast) and because it's the Met Office, they put a certain amount of trust into it. I suppose it's just too much money to have actual professionals updating the app. Shame really as the MO clearly have some exceptional meteorologists working for them as proven by their forecasts and discussion on other parts of their website and through other media outlets.

 

(I'm working on the assumption that the online and app forecasts are all computer generated as a poster on here once informed me. Please say if I have got that wrong. Have a lot of time for the Met Office and woldn't like to be speaking untruths about them!)

Edited February 8, 2015 by Gord

[picog]

friday 13th washout, can't make it up really, all days either side of it dry

Where did you get that from? Although it may be a bit damp on Friday, I haven't seen anything suggestive of a washout.

[Eugene]

Still clear skies here and temp dropped back to -2.4C. Temp dropped almost 7C between 5pm and 6pm. We eventually maxed out at a rather staggering 10.2C after a spring-like day with blue skies and very light winds.

 

 

Sorry when almost 20.0C has been reached in mid Feb, 10C isn't staggering at all, also non standardised temp recordings are higher than official recordings esp once the day's lengthen.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Where did you get that from? Although it may be a bit damp on Friday, I haven't seen anything suggestive of a washout.

 

models trended wet now, GFS was wrong before in the low just glancing us to our north

[Gord]

Sorry when almost 20.0C has been reached in mid Feb, 10C isn't staggering at all, also non standardised temp recordings are higher than official recordings esp once the day's lengthen.

 

I think she means when compared to forecasted highs and recent conditions.

Edited February 8, 2015 by Gord

[picog]

I think she means when compared to forecasted highs and recent conditions.

That's right. I know 10C isn't anything special for Feb, but it's in the context of current weather conditions and frecasts.