The Midlands - Weather Chat

[shaky]

If you take a look at the fax chart then you will know why the met have a warning out! ! There is a long occluded front north to south in central and eastern uk!! Maybe that is what the met office are on about! ! And conditions are not marginal tonight whatsoever! ! We gona have dew points of -3 and temps close to or below freezing throughout! !

[DIS1970]

Ok but the warnings out for today shouldn't include the west mids at all as there is no precipitation within 50 miles.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Ok but the warnings out for today shouldn't include the west mids at all as there is no precipitation within 50 miles.

 

they will be lifted for the W midlands, fax chart shows front over E midlands, and trough over wales 6am tomorrow, i still expect the W midlands to be snowless, then the mild air moves down from the north on 8th Feb with a whimper

[imballinger]

So what we're saying is, everything is going to miss the west midlands again?

[shaky]

Good point! ! It does look like the east mids will be affected more!! Maybe they are seeing something we are obviously not!!

[DIS1970]

they will be lifted for the W midlands, fax chart shows front over E midlands, and trough over wales 6am tomorrow, i still expect the W midlands to be snowless, then the mild air moves down from the north on 8th Feb with a whimper

I agree, but they shouldn't be issued at all, with passed experience with this type of setup even i knew this wouldn't produce much at all here, and the met office have all this technology at their disposal and still keep making basic mistakes.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Met have put warnings for the whole of the midlands what can they see, and last night was the heaviest snowfall I have seen since 2010 we have to be thank full those to the se and sw have seen nothing on the whole, and the real cold air is digging in you can see that already Mon, Tues, wed forecasts are changing all the time so I for one am loving this winter so far and we still have Feb and march to go

 

Well said Snowangel...

 

It has been a reasonably cold spell espescially since as been pointed out we have had no Arctic blast, no easterly no north easterly. I think its  been brilliant and extremely interesting.  I think I have layng snow on 8 days this month. All this without any cold air!!!

 

Wonder what thease(?) guys will say when the true cold hits us in February...          

 

MIA

[Gord]

I think it's a bit early to say that it's going to stay dry up to the 8th Feb and then the mild comes in. OK the models might be saying that but 8 days is a bit too much for them to handle detail like that.

 

However, I totally agree that tonight is a lost cause and also find the warnings a bit odd..

Edited January 31, 2015 by Gord

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I think it's a bit early to say that it's going to stay dry up to the 8th Feb and then the mild comes in. OK the models might be saying that but 8 days is a bit too much for them to handle detail like that.

 

However, I totally agree that tonight is a lost cause and also find the warnings a bit odd..

 

cannot see where the snow will come from? just perhaps a few flakes from the east 5th/6th, and that tough ask unless high moves a bit further north

[DIS1970]

Well, we rarely get snowfall from between the NNW & the NNE, so these warnings should never be issued.

[Gord]

cannot see where the snow will come from? just perhaps a few flakes from the east 5th/6th, and that tough ask unless high moves a bit further north

 

That's the point. No one can see where any snow will come from...it's too far away to guess. Last two night's events weren't known about 4-5 days ago.

 

You could well be right of course but I'm not brave enough to say there'll be no snow at all.

Edited January 31, 2015 by Gord

[Dancerwithwings]

If you take a look at the fax chart then you will know why the met have a warning out! ! There is a long occluded front north to south in central and eastern uk!! Maybe that is what the met office are on about! ! And conditions are not marginal tonight whatsoever! ! We gona have dew points of -3 and temps close to or below freezing throughout! !

The BBC have something for the West midlands around 5am Sunday and the MMN's have this, also 8:00 and 13:00

 

Edited January 31, 2015 by Dancerwithwings

[Will Padz]

Beeb going for -8c some models going for -7 to -12 here overnight this coming week....

[Midlands Ice Age]

Hi guys,

 

Don't look to the models in these kind of situations.

You are still thinking of an anticyclonic cold spell.

 

Look at the current radar.

 

Try looking west of Scotland. Many showers forming in a direct line for Cheshire.

Exactly the same as yesterday!!!!

 

As can be seen as soon as they reach land they turn to sleet and snow, and with lower humidity and temperatures moving down with them, they will more readily stay as snow.. 

 

The MO have not got it very good so far I agree , because they are relying too much on their models.

It looks as if some people (MO) are learning and modifying their positions (otherwise why put a warning out?), others still seem to be thinking 1990's style that the models MUST be correct.

 

Yep ILTS  you are a shining example. This brand new GFS can do no wrong!!!.

 

Reminds one of Ian Brown of a few years back I think.

 

This is the Midlands weather thread not the Model Output it may or may not happen thread...

 

MIA.

 

Edit - Thanks DWW re above  . That is a clasic example of the 'NOWFORECASTING' situation I believe we are in.

Edited January 31, 2015 by Midlands Ice Age

[Dancerwithwings]

Totally agree MIA.... T24 to T48 on the Midlands thread.. Will it snow Tomorrow not next Thursday.

[nobble]

Winds picked up last hour

A lot colder feeling

( I've had to shut the window

Gone gloomy too

I can smell the snow showers in the distance , be nice to watch some in daylight for a change

[picog]

Pity a few of those showers currently in Wales wouldn't hop across into England and give us a bit of snow in the west.

[Will Padz]

Ill take it!

[cyclonic happiness]

I wish we could actually get a snowfall that sticks without melting for a whole 24 hours, it really is a rubbish cold spell in that respect. That I've seen falling and briefly lying snow does not excuse this cool spell.

 

According to the met office, we should see between 5-7 days on average of lying snow in this part of the Midlands, per year.

 

Would be nice to be average, n'est pas?

[Gord]

Something that makes me feel a bit better.

 

Been looking at the weather in Columbus, Ohio (I lived there for 2 years). On the US weather forums the folks around the Great Lakes and the lower Midwest have been looking at a potential snow event tomorrow.

 

It was looking good for 4-6 inches in Columbus. However, the track of the low has been progged to move slightly and they're going to get warm sectored on Sunday bringing predicted amounts down to 1-3 inches. Now I know we would love 1-3 inches of snow but having lived there I know how annoying it is for them as they should be capable of getting far more out of these types of systems. Columbus gets in the way of warm sectors a lot while Cleveland get all snow...with lake effect snow in Cleveland to boot. So reading the forum there today all sounds very familiar!

 

So the point is is that it's not just us. Columbus obviously does a lot better than us but the mild sectors that can pass through can be really strong. Once when I was there we had 6 inches on the ground one lunch time with predictions for it to be far more by the end of the day...but the warm sector went far further north than planned and I'm not kidding...it was 12C by 9pm that night and chucking it down with rain! By next morning we were back below freezing but with everything completely green.

 

So when we get mild sectored here...I always remind myself of that!

Edited January 31, 2015 by Gord

[Mair Snaw]

Clouded over here..... Snowy looking sky, temp 2c dew -1c..... Might have some big icicles later....

Chinese five spiced chicken quarters (french trimmed) with stirfried veg n plum sauce for dinner.... Before footy kicks off at 530!

Sky Blue?? or Royal Blue??

[snowangel32]

they will be lifted for the W midlands, fax chart shows front over E midlands, and trough over wales 6am tomorrow, i still expect the W midlands to be snowless, then the mild air moves down from the north on 8th Feb with a whimper

No chance

[Will Padz]

Sky Blue?? or Royal Blue??

Sky blue! Chicken is smelling fivespicetastic! Shame its got another hour and a bit to cook!

Edited January 31, 2015 by Will Padz

[snowangel32]

No chance

We dont need the met or beep with got you lol theres no way to predict 8 days away even tonight is uncertain

[Mair Snaw]

Sky blue! Chicken is smelling fivespicetastic! Shame its got another hour and a bit to cook!

Glad you said that... as a West Ham fan if you had said royal blue I may have to had put you on my ignore list lol.... I hope you give that Chelski lot a good thrashing today...