Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->

[Eugene]

Yes lets hope so karyo, i think we have to look to get the most out of poor synoptics, i hope that low on friday digs further and further SE on each run allowing a pressure rise behind, we could see a blocking high to our east.

 

 

Thats now whats showing on GFS 18Z.

[karyo]

Thats now whats showing on GFS 18Z.

Now post something about a screaming northerly!

[Jason M]

The northern arm of the jet is too strong to allow a stable Scandi high. Interesting though, as its taken a trend from the 12z and pushed it a bit further here. I suspect it will be another false dawn, but nonetheless its nice to have some interest.

 

The 12z ensembles didn't want to know with this, so lets see if any hints in the 18z set.

[Eugene]

The northern arm of the jet is too strong to allow a stable Scandi high. Interesting though, as its taken a trend from the 12z and pushed it a bit further here. I suspect it will be another false dawn, but nonetheless its nice to have some interest.

 

The 12z ensembles didn't want to know with this, so lets see if any hints in the 18z set.

 

The northern arm of the jet is too strong to allow a stable Scandi high. Interesting though, as its taken a trend from the 12z and pushed it a bit further here. I suspect it will be another false dawn, but nonetheless its nice to have some interest.

 

The 12z ensembles didn't want to know with this, so lets see if any hints in the 18z set.

 

 

Well they were showing HP domination just yesterday so they could easily switch back with a slight variation of that theme.

[TEITS]

Despite the 18Z I see little evidence towards any notable cold spell even into F.I.

 

The only thing that will change my mind is if the next low that is W of the UK either sinks SE like the one at +120 does or this low is held further W.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.gif

[Catacol]

I just wonder what it would take for them to come out again? 

 

The calendar ticking around to 1st November should do it... This winter is dead - a shocker for the south. I felt warm in the sun today. I nearly cried.

[Winter Cold]

One little positive I can see today is that the ECM 12z and now the GFS 18z do show the UK under sub zero 850s for greater periods of time in the runs. The models the last few days didnt show much time at all like this, but it seems to be showing a bit more now.

 

Nothing major yet at all shown, but if this keeps showing more in future runs maybe the pattern can keep adjusting more to coldies favour

[Eugene]

The calendar ticking around to 1st November should do it... This winter is dead - a shocker for the south. I felt warm in the sun today. I nearly cried.

 

 

You'll feel warm even with -15C uppers then, suns strength doesn't depend on airmass.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Funny thing the weather eh. We actually have a scandi high showing at day 7 on the GFS this morning.

[knocker]

The GFS is off on an eye candy gallop this morning ending with some floss for the album. On a more serious note a wet end to the week with temps in the 6C -9C range. I'm not quite sure why this was welcomed rather than the crisp anticyclonic set up. Somewhat perverse.

Chart weatherbell

Edited February 9, 2015 by knocker

[Captain Shortwave]

The GFS Scandi high idea has no support from either the other models or its own ensemble suite so far (I looked at al 20 members).

GFS day 6

UKMO

GEM

The GEM and UKMO are quicker with diving the low south east and end up flatter later on, the GFS also has a deeper feature pushing into central Europe, hence the reduced chance of an easterly developing. Not to mention the issue that there isn't any snow producing cold in sight over Europe at the time, even though conditions would quickly turn chilly if an easterly did set up with a cold surface feed.

Lets see what the ECM can come up with.

Edit - ECM

Just the GFS op suggesting that the winds will swing easterly this morning.

Edited February 9, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Weather-history]

Are there any certainties when it comes to the weather a few days out?

A couple or so days ago, the Manchester GFS ensembles at one stage showed only one ensemble below 1000mb right at the end of the run. Now look at them, the mean pressure has been getting lower for each run on GFS for next Friday.

The mean pressure was 1025mb on Sat GFS 12z now Mon GFS 0z its 1000mb for Friday.

Edited February 9, 2015 by Weather-history

[winterof79]

The GFS Scandi high idea has no support from either the other models or its own ensemble suite so far (I looked at al 20 members).

GFS day 6

UKMO

GEM

The GEM and UKMO are quicker with diving the low south east and end up flatter later on, the GFS also has a deeper feature pushing into central Europe, hence the reduced chance of an easterly developing. Not to mention the issue that there isn't any snow producing cold in sight over Europe at the time, even though conditions would quickly turn chilly if an easterly did set up with a cold surface feed.

Lets see what the ECM can come up with.

Edit - ECM

Just the GFS op suggesting that the winds will swing easterly this morning.

 A long shot but the evolution is obviously possible.

 

 

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Cap't, Not much support for the slack Easterly.. It would be a pretty gloomy one to say the least!

 

[knocker]

What's fueling all the storms - insanely warm oceans.

 

[West is Best]

Plenty still to play for:

 

 

Wide scatter with some colder members. Fortunately the high looks like it is going to be shunted east during midweek. More mobility opens up more potential.

[Jason M]

Well they were showing HP domination just yesterday so they could easily switch back with a slight variation of that theme.

Yes, true. Very unlikely though IMHO.

I wouldn't be surprised if GFS is correct here with the Scandi high idea despite having no support from elsewhere. It's the third run on the roll that it's done this. It's unlikely to matter though in the long run as with the jet barrelling over the top there's only one way it's going to end.

As the high sinks it just pulls up even warmer air into NW Europe. Getting the easterly is the easy bit, having it coincide with cold enough uppers is a different matter entirely and that is the story of this winter. I'd imagine that in parts of mainland Europe this winter is going to be a record breaker.

Just look at this chart

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=300&mode=1

Long way out but i wouldn't want to be visiting the ice hotel :-)

[IDO]

There was always two choices for the upcoming couple of weeks, settled possibly mild HP dominated or the high sinking to allow more zonal. Bearing in mind last years horrible zonal winter I was quite pleased with the prospect of the former and it is rather funny that excitement has been raised as the Atlantic is showing more encroachment! For instance we had 9c yesterday in my locale and today 14c is predicted for the NE regions under this apparent cold high.

 

Both ECM and GEM showing this with a N/S split though with passing PM and TM flows from later this week to D10:

 

 

 

The GFS op has little support but I expect outliers like this as since it's upgrade it has shown a propensity when it has spotted a change to over egg the new pattern. So best to ignore that, although a relatively settled FI so not a bad run.

 

The GEFS FI has changed a bit after D10 with now a N/S split and the D16 mean represents that period:

 

 D16 NH Mean: 

 

So still looking hopeful for my area (south) to be more settled than further north. Looking at the GEFS at D16 from the NH and there is absolutely no sign of heights building to the north, a continued strong theme, and that is why I am hoping for HP rather than the Atlantic during this holding pattern.

 

 

 

 

[Troubleatmill]

What's fueling all the storms - insanely warm oceans.

 

 

that's a hell of a contrast about 1000 miles off coast of quebec!

[chris55]

GFS Scandinavia high is note able this morning. Little support but until the low at the end of the week is modelled correctly then I wouldn't discount it. A bit murky and not very cold on the 00z but if it hung around it would cool with the colder air wrapping round from the North East side

[Argyle1980]

I feel the low on Friday is being modelled further west as each day does by, could be due to the Scandi hight muscling its way into position. One to watch and maybe more of a negative tilt to the low to take it more s/e across Europe?

[John Badrick]

The GFS is off on an eye candy gallop this morning ending with some floss for the album. On a more serious note a wet end to the week with temps in the 6C -9C range. I'm not quite sure why this was welcomed rather than the crisp anticyclonic set up. Somewhat perverse.

Chart weatherbell

I know, I thought we are all enjoying the cold, crisp mornings with pleasant sunny days, I certainly am

[Jason H]

Except its dank misty and overcast in London. Please remember the weather is not the same in other parts of the country as it is on yours :-)

[nick sussex]

Quite a backtrack from the models considering what they projected a few days back however this would have been more interesting if there was any cold air to the east to tap into.

 

Personally I would have preferred their original solutions of high pressure in charge, even with the GFS low pressure develops in the western Med so the flow into mainland Europe is from the se.

[johnholmes]

The anomaly charts are inconcistent with each other and themselves in some cases so no guidance from there