Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->

[polar vortex]

Good to see the 06z gfs run really amplifing the pattern admittedly in the far far reaches of FI but 

certainly in keeping with my thoughts for the last week of the month. 

The forcing from the MJO slowly taking effect on the northern hemispheric tropospheric pattern 

although a forcing of the magnitude seen on the 06z would reach well into the strat I would of 

thought. 

Hoping to see this becoming a regular theme over the coming model runs and ens.

[Polar Maritime]

Way out in the run, But certainly an interesting chart and a time-scale to keep an eye on for possible Northerly incursions.

 

[Nouska]

The three steps that we don't see on the regular ECM output; 150, 156 and162 shown in comparison to the GFS. Differences couldn't be more stark. Who will be nearer the mark or will it be a halfway house?

 

     

[igloo]

well big differences today between the euro models and the GFS at only day 5 personaly i would like the GFS to be corect but unless its recent upgrade has performed some sort of miracle (some hope)it looks like it will be back to zonal again by next friday

[Cloud 10]

This afternoon's UKMO at 144 hrs climbs aboard the weekend trough bandwagon.

 

[chris55]

Certainly a fascinating period of model watching at the moment, you get the feeling that something could well develop out of the situation, with the uncertainty regarding the weekend Low and high pressure milling about, some undercutting tendencies (GFS) and generally a blocked type pattern it wouldnt take much to bring in a very nice second half of Feb.

 

UKMO has the weekend Low, almost close to a "diver" low, wouldn't surprise me, if it develops, if it was further west and south. In turn allowing ridging ahead then of course the train of Lows following would all track to the south ;O

 

 

 

Although GFS is quite different the undercut/southerly track is a theme

 

 

Some luck and more runs needed but potential there!

[Summer Sun]

Still big differences at t144 this afternoon with GFS and GEM maintaining the settled theme whilst UKMO goes for an unsettled end to the working week

 

[karyo]

This afternoon's UKMO at 144 hrs climbs aboard the weekend trough bandwagon.

 

UW144-21.gif

It feels like the UKMO has copied yesterday's ECM chart!

[Daniel*]

GFS 12z is thoroughly high pressure dominated at times easing later on Azores high pokes in , transient southeasterly the trouble is there's no cold at all top tap into!! I hope ECM/UKMO are correct its certainly not eye candy but a return to something more freeflowing would be welcome, something has to snap...

Western Europe experiencing another poor winter. Moscow has not had a single day below -20C!

Edited February 7, 2015 by Daniel*

[blizzard81]

It feels like the UKMO has copied yesterday's ECM chart!

Going on past experience, the ECM, now backed by UKMO, will be king here. Watch the GFS slowly climb on board over the next few days. No idea whether this will lead to a cold outcome though!

[Gael_Force]

Good grief! The GFS, in low-res has been through the text book of weather types and is giving us examples of them all - in rapid succession. Good job the Met Office don't refer as the DECIDER system would blow up!

[Cloud 10]

It feels like the UKMO has copied yesterday's ECM chart!

 

Quite a spread amongst the GEFS members at 144 hrs.

 

 

 

Lets see what the ECM churns out.

[Summer Sun]

So after ECM's update its now UKMO which looks the most unsettled at t144, ECM maintains the settled theme away from the far north

 

 

Think it will take another few days or so to resolve this but my guess is the south will remain settled with some frost and fog overnight whilst the far north will be slightly wetter and windier at times

Edited February 7, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Polar Maritime]

Better ridging into Greenland.

Edited February 7, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[TEITS]

The problem with the models at the moment begins at +96!.

 

It's the low SW of Greenland at +96 as the models diverge with regards to the track of this. The ECM, UKMO, GFS all differ.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015020712/ECM1-96.GIF?07-0

 

 

From a N hemisphere perspective this is a great pattern for the NE of the USA.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015020712/ECH1-168.GIF?07-0

 

Incredible cold surges from the Arctic. Crap for us though!

Edited February 7, 2015 by TEITS

[Polar Maritime]

The problem with the models at the moment begins at +96!.

 

It's the low W of Greenland at +96 as the models diverge with regards to the track of this. The ECM, UKMO, GFS all differ.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015020712/ECM1-96.GIF?07-0

 

Yes the models have't a clue reg the Low/s and track of them from S/Greenland. Much uncertainty, But many variations which is good news.

[TEITS]

Yes the models have't a clue reg the Low/s and track of them from S/Greenland. Much uncertainty, But many variations which is good news.

Certainly alot of disagreement within the short term. However looking at the overall pattern across the N Hemisphere and its dreadful for us coldies.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015020712/ECH1-192.GIF?07-0

 

If members tip their laptops to the side they will see even better what a fantastic pattern for the NE USA with an incredible cross polar flow.

[karyo]

Certainly alot of disagreement within the short term. However looking at the overall pattern across the N Hemisphere and its dreadful for us coldies.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015020712/ECH1-192.GIF?07-0

 

If members tip their laptops to the side they will see even better what a fantastic pattern for the NE USA with an incredible cross polar flow.

Agreed! They did great in January and we managed to scrape the barrel with some marginal snow events so maybe something can develop for us this time also.

[sunnijim]

Agreed! They did great in January and we managed to scrape the barrel with some marginal snow events so maybe something can develop for us this time also.

Another marginal NW flow? Forgive me but i would rather an early spring and save a few quid on gas!

I'm sure those from Northern England and Scotland may disagree with that but winter here has been the equivalant of Morrisons value bangers for dinner every night,whilst watching steak served over the pond!

[IDO]

No real change in the models with HP in charge out till around D12 and that has been the modus operandi from the beginning of this week. Very consistent from the GFS, but the usual from the ECM, the odd outlier run muddying what looks like a straight forward upcoming period. At least it is back on track again tonight with HP in charge till D10:

The UKMO is another model that continues to struggle with the phasing from D5. It has done this many times this winter and had to back track. I will stay with the consistent GFS and ignore the inconsistent ECM and UKMO. Going with the GEFS mean after D10 and we still see HP in charge at D12 & D14:

A stalemate as the PV remains doggedly to the North and the Azores continues to send wedges of higher height towards the UK. Maybe a slight sinking of the heights. One thing is for sure there is little sign of heights rising to the north (NE or NW) at the moment. To the contrary, any signal is for the heights to fall. After D14 the GEFS get a bit more scatter but the mean is still supportive of a benign pattern over the UK.

The next two weeks looks to average out the 850s and depending on cloud cover temps could be warmer than average though with the risk of frosts. Nothing cold on the London ens:

If the pattern is going to flip for a last shot of cold it will be in the last week of Feb into March IMO. To my untrained eye when the US gets extreme cold it is rare indeed for the UK to follow. We sometimes get the scraps but rarely the real deal. Again as last year it is the conus that has had repeated spells of major cold/wintriness and I do not see why this will change for the few weeks we have left?

Edited February 7, 2015 by IDO

[karyo]

Another marginal NW flow? Forgive me but i would rather an early spring and save a few quid on gas!

I'm sure those from Northern England and Scotland may disagree with that but winter here has been the equivalant of Morrisons value bangers for dinner every night,whilst watching steak served over the pond!

I'll happily take it!

[nick sussex]

I think the lack of posts today sum up the outputs with a lack of interest and perhaps model fatigue.

 

Not much change this evening with high pressure in charge barring the earlier model disagreements even if the low does head into the UK, its just a brief affair.

 

As a desperate attempt to find some semblance of interest the ECM T240hrs would have a bit more potential if the upstream pattern could just add a little more amplification, this would help nudge the high further ne.

 

The GEFS does still hold some more interesting members within T240hrs, the problem of course is that theres not a great deal of time to play with in terms of winter, I wouldn't say we're quite at the last chance saloon as with the right synoptics the end of February can often deliver decent cold and snow but I think we'd need to see next weeks outputs deliver more interest.

[Eugene]

Quite happy with the charts, i see ECM has moved towards an anticyclonic outlook like GFS, not sure why the gloom really, an anticyclonic pattern is long overdue and is much better than mild SW'lys, it will be quite cold under stagnant conditions, it's only February not late March.

[legritter]

well certainly high pressure wants to be hugging our shores for quite a while looking at todays models charts .very frustrating to see big fat high just sticking its nose in ,wouldn,t be so bad if it was sat proud to our north or n/west n/east ,some signs of a possible change with some charts showing a trough dropping south eventually but more runs needed for sure .By no means the end of the road with the rest of february and March left to deliver hopefully a proper cold blast with low 850mb  temperatures and some meaningfull areas of low pressure ,My straw at the moment [high pressure to our west and s/west must be feeling rather quilty and would love a good old kick up the ba..  .... and wake up over Lapland , lets hope we see a good week of interesting output 

[damianslaw]

Its one of those times when we see a static picture for the foreseeable, not often associated with our normally changeable pattern, but also not too unusual..

 

Its in these set ups when a pattern change does occur, if is often very abrupt and quite rapid.. but always a headache predicting confidently when. In the meantime those wanting to latch onto such change with confidence best refrain from model watching for a good 5 days I think..

 

Oh for such a set up in the height of summer!