Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->

[bluearmy]

Looks like one of those weeks where the 10 day forecast ends up more accurate than the 7!

[IDO]

so the GFS goes from this yesterday:

 

 

to this today:

 

 

 

 

possibly just a blip in the overall pattern but a fairly notable oversight. In fact, the GFS is now looking a lot like the ECM from yesterday or whenever it was.

 

Then ECM has been just as inconsistent. ECM's last four runs for the same time period, all different and only one the same as the latest GFS:

 

 

 

It is a tricky period to predict as we have seen many times this year, LP and HP interacting, and ECM has found it just as hard, so maybe not a notable oversight, if so then the same applies to ECM and GEM.

 

D10 on the 12z from GFS: 

 

 T312:  D16: 

 

Still the over whelming theme even with variations within runs is HP to dominate till D13 apart from the blip next weekend. GEM is not dissimilar but with a more N/S split.

Edited February 8, 2015 by IDO

[polar vortex]

Another poor run from the gfs 12z for those of us wanting a real taste of winter. The strong ridging shown on the 

run up the western side of America into Alaska made no real impact into the Arctic and thus no real impact in our 

weather not if your looking for a more blocked and amplified pattern. 

The reason for this I believe has nothing to do with the GWO and GLAMM tendency or Enso etc but has everything 

to do with the stratosphere in not allowing heights to build into the Arctic. The 12z does suggest  a bigger forcing 

from the MJO what with the much stronger ridging and although this op run has not shown much of an interest in 

northern blocking that is not to say that this run is correct or that this will not change.

[EML Network]

Hat's off to those of you who still have the energy to look for the next spell of cold weather, I have to admit I have given up all hope. 

 

Instead I have taken to trying to find charts that look rude, so I had to post this one, overall picture hasn't really changed, high pressure rules the roost for the lower half of the UK and glancing blows from lows up north. 

 

[Frank Trough]

Then ECM has been just as inconsistent. ECM's last four runs for the same time period, all different and only one the same as the latest GFS:

 

ECM1-144 (2).gifECM1-168 (2).gif

 

ECM1-192.gifECM1-216.gif

 

It is a tricky period to predict as we have seen many times this year, LP and HP interacting, and ECM has found it just as hard, so maybe not a notable oversight, if so then the same applies to ECM and GEM.

 

D10 on the 12z from GFS: 

 

gfs-0-240 (1).png  T312: gfs-0-312 (1).png D16: gfs-0-384 (1).png

 

Still the over whelming theme even with variations within runs is HP to dominate till D13 apart from the blip next weekend. GEM is not dissimilar but with a more N/S split.

 

not really, no. The ECM may have some variation on a theme but the only ECM close to the high pressure domination GFS charts that you've posted is from 4 days ago. As it stands, the Euros are going to be much closer to surface conditions than the GFS.

 

But you are right, it will continue to be tricky to resolve the details for a few days yet.

[IDO]

not really, no. The ECM may have some variation on a theme but the only ECM close to the high pressure domination GFS charts that you've posted is from 4 days ago. As it stands, the Euros are going to be much closer to surface conditions than the GFS.

 

But you are right, it will continue to be tricky to resolve the details for a few days yet.

 

 

Yes looking at the short ensembles, the not synoptically dissimilar op and control for next weekend look to be extreme, for pressure fall, precipitation and uppers, so inconclusive:

 

 

The mean remains similar to previous runs. D10 mean: 

[mushymanrob]

Well after the latest GFS debacle my confidence in anything that model shows past 5 days has hit rock bottom.

Debacle? What do you mean? Im assuming youre referring to the trough later this week?

Doesnt that just prove that it works? By reviewing and updating data constantly? Outputs change especially five days away .

Or have i totally missed the point? Lol

[shaky]

Ecm looking even better than gfs and ukmo but pattern is very similar! ! That high from the east has gone a little stronger and slightly further west on all.the main 12z runs than the 00z runs at 144 hours! !

[Day 10]

Things are looking a bit more interesting...

 

 

[Day 10]

The uppers aren't especially cold however

 

 

[blizzard81]

The BRUTAL cold heading south in the US shown on the ECM looks absolutely epic. Would this even overshadow the cold experienced over there last winter I wonder?

[Polar Maritime]

A deeper N/W flow showing by the ECMWF for around the 16th.

 

Edited February 8, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[karyo]

Yes,the 12z ECM can prove to be quite chilly on the surface up to 172 hours and then it has some brief cold uppers from the west.

It ends horribly mild but the charts at the 200 hour plus range don't often materialise.

[igloo]

that strikes me the most on the ECM is how mild it is in scandinavia eastern europe and well in to russia this is starting to become the norm over the past few years blocking from the east or north was always rare for us but was common in eastern europe signs of the times i suppose and a part of history

Edited February 8, 2015 by igloo

[chris55]

Debacle? What do you mean? Im assuming youre referring to the trough later this week?

Doesnt that just prove that it works? By reviewing and updating data constantly? Outputs change especially five days away .

Or have i totally missed the point? Lol

 

 

No that is the point, more often than not.

 

Unless we are in a locked in pattern of south westerlies or a dominant zonal pattern, charts past day 4/5/6 are always open to changes, however some people treat a more blocked pattern as they would a zonal pattern and sometimes can put to much faith in the mid term charts.

 

When the pattern is not a straightforward prevailing type then more scepticism needs to me placed in the mid term. The Low at the end of the week is a good example, and alas those winter is over posts are premature. 

[Eugene]

Yes,the 12z ECM can prove to be quite chilly on the surface up to 172 hours and then it has some brief cold uppers from the west.

It ends horribly mild but the charts at the 200 hour plus range don't often materialise.

 

Yes lets hope so karyo, i think we have to look to get the most out of poor synoptics, i hope that low on friday digs further and further SE on each run allowing a pressure rise behind, we could see a blocking high to our east.

[Eugene]

No that is the point, more often than not.

 

Unless we are in a locked in pattern of south westerlies or a dominant zonal pattern, charts past day 4/5/6 are always open to changes, however some people treat a more blocked pattern as they would a zonal pattern and sometimes can put to much faith in the mid term charts.

 

When the pattern is not a straightforward prevailing type then more scepticism needs to me placed in the mid term. The Low at the end of the week is a good example, and alas those winter is over posts are premature. 

 

 

Yeah thanks, you summed it up perfectly.

[summer blizzard]

Gosh, Euro really turns the hairdryer on with a nice Fohn effect there..

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Well there is no point crying over spilt milk! A lot of coldies have gone and buried there head in the sand, I just wonder what it would take for them to come out again?      Anyway, ecm has led the lead with unsettled conditions later this week for the whole of the Uk and gfs following. Just don't right off winter at the moment....A lot going on.....

[polar vortex]

ECM 12z t240 is a horrid chart for coldies but I am more interested in the greater amplitude shown over Alaska 

and north west Canada, again a signal of a stronger MJO wave. Should this continue to increase then we will 

hopefully see a more amplified pattern take hold over the Arctic (-AO).

The models are showing no real signs of this at the moment though it has to be said.

[bluearmy]

first signs on the extended ecm ens (at two weeks) of the euro high anomoly pulling back west  to allow a nw/se jet as we saw a couple weeks back. 

 

seeing as we now have the troughs headed west to east managing to drop themselves into what looked like an impenetrable block, i wonder if this will now gather momentum and be brought forward ?

[Frosty.]

LOL what happened to the high..not that I'm complaining since viewing charts showing a big fat high drifting around the UK for a few weeks would be very boring. Nice to see the more unsettled charts on tonight's Ecm.

[Ali1977]

Is this at an attempt to form a Scandy high...Light,and not very cold Easterly at day 7/8

[knocker]

first signs on the extended ecm ens (at two weeks) of the euro high anomoly pulling back west  to allow a nw/se jet as we saw a couple weeks back. 

 

seeing as we now have the troughs headed west to east managing to drop themselves into what looked like an impenetrable block, i wonder if this will now gather momentum and be brought forward ?

it's not a million miles away from the last EC32 update for the same time except it has the trough at the Pole orientated south north of the UK thus pushing the HP WSW.

Edited February 8, 2015 by knocker

[Daniel*]

^^ Transient slack E'ly before it diminishes as block edges eastwards, one thing I've noticed is that the models tend to underdo the sturdiness of these blocking features, it is something to ponder on. UK is stuck in no man's land distinctly average but some fine tuning here and there regarding HP placement and it could exert an increasing influence. I see there to be a window of potential albeit short lived.

Edited February 8, 2015 by Daniel*