Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->

[shaky]

Ukmo very similar to gfs just with low slightly further north and an ever growing cold pool across east anglia and the netherlands! ! Hmm could be the start of something interesting hopefully! !

[bluearmy]

where has our boring block gone? I did wonder if, in a season that has been so mobile, we would really see such a feature take residence for any sustained period.

Now to work out where this is all leading to?

[shaky]

where has our boring block gone? I did wonder if, in a season that has been so mobile, we would really see such a feature take residence for any sustained period.

Now to work out where this is all leading to?

was gona say the same thing!! This has come out of nowhere and over the last 48 hours has been a growing trend! ! Have a feeling that growing area of cold 850's on the ukmo 120 hours chart will be very important if anyone wants snow cos their is no cold air anywhere else near the continent! !

[Cheshire Freeze]

where has our boring block gone? I did wonder if, in a season that has been so mobile, we would really see such a feature take residence for any sustained period.

Now to work out where this is all leading to?

Yep, I think a few of us could see from the outset that HP wasn't just going to plonk itself over us for 2 weeks as most of the modelling suggested. How often do we see a UK high out to t200+ just seemingly erode in the modelling as we pull closer?? Very often is the answer!

[Bristawl Si]

 

was gona say the same thing!! This has come out of nowhere and over the last 48 hours has been a growing trend! ! Have a feeling that growing area of cold 850's on the ukmo 120 hours chart will be very important if anyone wants snow cos their is no cold air anywhere else near the continent! !

Seems to have been a feature of a lot of the winter - No real cold weather in places like Germany, Czech Rep, etc. Berlin yesterday was 5c. So any feed from the East/SE, off the continent, will not be particularly cold.

V unusual indeed for early-mid February.

Edited February 10, 2015 by Bristle boy

[nick sussex]

The models are all over the place for the weekend, the GFS 12hrs has now switched to show this mornings UKMO 00hrs output, and the UKMO has done the reverse!

 

Still too much energy running over the top of the Scandi high, can the models get that further north?

 

By T120hrs the UKMO has 850's around -5 for the se, marginal but there could be something wintry out of that. And at T144hrs 850's around -7 moving into the nw with that PM flow.

Edited February 10, 2015 by nick sussex

[shaky]

The models are all over the place for the weekend, the GFS 12hrs has now switched to show this mornings UKMO 00hrs output, and the UKMO has done the reverse!

 

Still too much energy running over the top of the Scandi high, can the models get that further north?

 

By T120hrs the UKMO has 850's around -5 for the se, marginal but there could be something wintry out of that. And at T144hrs 850's around -7 moving into the nw with that PM flow.

way more interesting than what was shown 48 hours ago!!! Steve murr might be right about a rain to snow event across midlands and east anglia! ! He mentioned it yesterday! ! Today has been really cold here surprisingly! ! Temp has gotten above 3 or 4 degrees!!

[nick sussex]

way more interesting than what was shown 48 hours ago!!! Steve murr might be right about a rain to snow event across midlands and east anglia! ! He mentioned it yesterday! ! Today has been really cold here surprisingly! ! Temp has gotten above 3 or 4 degrees!!

Yes almost out of nowhere but given the models can't agree at only T96hrs then I'd be wary of anything shown so far. The UKMO solution is better for the UK although the UKMO is riskier in terms of evolution. But its output has a better chance of bringing something wintry.

 

It's still marginal but given what was on show a few days ago at least it gives us something to talk about! lol

[IDO]

Yep, I think a few of us could see from the outset that HP wasn't just going to plonk itself over us for 2 weeks as most of the modelling suggested. How often do we see a UK high out to t200+ just seemingly erode in the modelling as we pull closer?? Very often is the answer!

 

I don't believe GFS has ever charted that. The temporary breakdown at the end of the week was always modelled by the GFS from over a week ago. Obviously details have changed re how much energy from the PV sinks between the phasing of the exiting and arriving highs and of course the lower heights have extended for a bit longer, two days to four currently. At no time has the GEFS wavered as to the next HP moving in from the SW and even the inconsistent GEM has been showing this, as per the 12z:

 

GFS at D10:  GEM at D10:

 

I would be hopeful if there had been some divergence from that theme but it is constant for days. Of course it could be wrong but I suspect it is just the upcoming trough that has been the difficulty for the models. Anyway D14 and the GFS still has the same theme for our locale:

 

 

With regard to the D6 UKMO chart, we have seen this winter how the UKMO struggles to cope with this type of setup, so I would expect that to change again on the next run.

 

The best part of the GFS run is the slack uppers (850s) later this week, so no frontal rain this weekend being modelled, just the sinking LP system on Friday/Saturday and that is likely to change in the next day or two. The cold front on Monday dies out due to the heights building from the SW, and the rest of the GFS run has little rain. Probably change again but that would be a good signal.

Edited February 10, 2015 by IDO

[knocker]

was gona say the same thing!! This has come out of nowhere and over the last 48 hours has been a growing trend! ! Have a feeling that growing area of cold 850's on the ukmo 120 hours chart will be very important if anyone wants snow cos their is no cold air anywhere else near the continent! !

 

Given the GFS is giving plus 8C-10C surface temps at T120 I wold currently file that under pending.

[carinthian]

Yep, I think a few of us could see from the outset that HP wasn't just going to plonk itself over us for 2 weeks as most of the modelling suggested. How often do we see a UK high out to t200+ just seemingly erode in the modelling as we pull closer?? Very often is the answer!

Again, the GFS throws up a huge high pressure at day 10. The 1025mb perimeter isobar covering the 2 hemispheres from The Caspian Sea to the coast of Newfoundland up towards the Arctic circle and down into Scandinavia with the UK back in the centre of the high. That pressure map in my experience does not look right and is likely to be an error again which leaves Southern Europe void of a resident home for sinking low pressure. Its been there for weeks !

 C

[Cheshire Freeze]

Again, the GFS throws up a huge high pressure at day 10. The 1025mb perimeter isobar covering the 2 hemispheres from The Caspian Sea to the coast of Newfoundland up towards the Arctic circle and down into Scandinavia with the UK back in the centre of the high. That pressure map in my experience does not look right and is likely to be an error again which leaves Southern Europe void of a resident home for sinking low pressure. Its been there for weeks !

 C

Essentially a 'cannot compute' message of the NWP when there's little driving the overall set up. Then, as we meander down towards t0, things seemingly 'pop up' out of nowhere. But they don't pop up out of nowhere do they in true sense...it's easy to see where these nuances in the overall theme may occur.

[picog]

Big changes on the 12z already! ! Low pressure just about makes it to south west england before sliding south of the uk!! 06z had it centre of the uk!! This only at 78 hours!! Scandi high maybe about to gather pace!!

Do you think the potential rain on this system for Friday will be unlikey to materialise?

Edited February 10, 2015 by picog

[legritter]

could be some interesting synoptics in around 10 days time ,looking at GFS its showing many outcomes in the further outlook .we will have to wait for the other models as usual to see where we Could end up .reading uk Met extended outlook at present its not showing anything wintry and will only do so when their models and data are more concrete ,i class their updates as the info we do not see [just as well realy as its the total uncertainty which makes the HUNT interesting ]we have no Fox at the end of our hunt just a nice cold spell with some modest snow , so with the date only 10th february i,m ushering in the hounds let the hunt commence   

[shaky]

Do you think the potential rain on this system for Friday will be unlikey to materialise?

well i think it will personally! ! Think ukmo will be closer to the mark before sliding everything south but i could be wrong! ! Cannot discount the gfs cos its normally the model which sweeps everything eastwards! !

[shaky]

Ecm has the low disrupting around western uk at 72 hours and not as deep as ukmo! ! Got a feeling that low at 96 hours will be further west than the ukmo 96 hour chart! ! So could be similar to gfs!

[Skullzrulerz]

Ecm has the low disrupting around western uk at 72 hours and not as deep as ukmo! ! Got a feeling that low at 96 hours will be further west than the ukmo 96 hour chart! ! So could be similar to gfs!

 

Can at least you provide a chart please for the people who can't view it. 

[Day 10]

120

[shaky]

Can at least you provide a chart please for the people who can't view it.

i would but for some reason its not letting me do it on my phone! ! Anyway ecm is the middle road solution!! Not as west as gfs and not as east as ukmo and the ukmo was pretty interesting! ! Scandi high looks a good bet so far even though it won't last long!!

[chris55]

That was the 00z lol

Edited February 10, 2015 by chris55

[Day 10]

144

[shaky]

Very interesting 12z ecm!! The second low at 144 hours is undercutting aswell !! HOpefully the models build on it from here but we all know it's gona make it as complicated as possible! ! Lol

[Day 10]

hmmmm

[TEITS]

I hope some members aren't expecting anything notable from the E?

 

The ECM at +144 shows a nice cold pool pulling S on the right flank of the HP.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif

 

However the chances of this getting anywhere near to the UK is zero due to the low pressure systems tracking NE between iceland/Scandi.

 

If we are to see a return to anything cold then we need to look NW in around 10 days time!

[IDO]

Well ECM changes every run but at least it now resembles GEM and GFS at D7 plus:

 

D8:    D9:  D10: 

 

Major differences from its 0z run but no surprise, its performance after D8 is consistently inconsistent.

 

The GEFS are slow coming out today but by T300 there remains not one member showing any inclination to build pressure further north. The theme remains HP to the south and the PV to the north, just questions as to where they meet:

 

Edited February 10, 2015 by IDO