Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->

[IDO]

ECM's promise over the last few runs, op and ens to dig a trough to the east gone tonight on the op at least and it has now edged towards the GFS with HP in charge from D5-10:

 

 

 

GEM not far off that and at D10: 

 

A lot were doubting the consistent GFS monotonous HP output. Run after run and it is now looking like that consistency may have been well founded. The GEFS mean maintains that theme right out till D16 though the mean high gradually sinks so mainly a N/S affair after D12:

 

  

 

Looking at the GEFS in FI there is no Northern blocking. Any promise from the last day or two has gone. The uppers remain colder than average as we continue to see a better 850's cold flow, with disruption to the axis that has predominated this winter. So no sign of deep cold the rest of the month but looking a return to classic PM incursions for the next two weeks though as the London temps show, very average numbers incoming:

 

 

Sums up this winter really.

[johnholmes]

if you followed the NOAA version of anomaly charts that option was never in doubt. Even with the ECMWF-GFS output, varying in their ideas, the overall pattern of an upper ridge as the dominant player in the UK area has never really shifted.

[Frank Trough]

ECM's promise over the last few runs, op and ens to dig a trough to the east gone tonight on the op at least and it has now edged towards the GFS with HP in charge from D5-10:

 

ECM1-120 (1).gif  ECM1-240 (7).gif

 

GEM not far off that and at D10: gem-0-240 (5).png

 

A lot were doubting the consistent GFS monotonous HP output. Run after run and it is now looking like that consistency may have been well founded. The GEFS mean maintains that theme right out till D16 though the mean high gradually sinks so mainly a N/S affair after D12:

 

gens-21-1-240 (6).png gens-21-1-288 (2).png gens-21-1-336 (3).png

 

Looking at the GEFS in FI there is no Northern blocking. Any promise from the last day or two has gone. The uppers remain colder than average as we continue to see a better 850's cold flow, with disruption to the axis that has predominated this winter. So no sign of deep cold the rest of the month but looking a return to classic PM incursions for the next two weeks though as the London temps show, very average numbers incoming:

 

graphe6_1000_306_141___Londres (5).gif

 

Sums up this winter really.

Hi,

 

One thing that has definitely occurred in the shorter term is the the GFS has trended to the Euros with the placement of the high. GFS had that ridging in and influencing the whole UK entirely but the UKMO/ECM started to flatten it and effectively keep it influencing only the south. GFS now agrees.

 

i think it's undeniable that high pressure is the big player but the placement makes a difference. The METO have always seen it as a more southern affair with NW unsettled at times.

Edited February 12, 2015 by New Forest Gump

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z shows at least a few polar maritime incursions with a risk of hail, sleet and snow showers,especially across more northern parts of the UK where pressure looks lower at times with outbreaks of rain and breezy / windy Atlantic conditions between pm spells whereas further south, pressure looks generally higher with less ppn around for the majority of the time. The mildest uppers (T850 hPa) occur next Wed / thurs although at the surface, temperatures would probably be rather average but the further north you are, the higher the chance of at least short lived colder and showery intervals with a risk of snow showers according to this run.

[phil nw.]

The main trend to more changeable weather continues in the 12z runs.

The return of the Atlantic westerlies will at least help to break up this current anticyclonic gloom that many of us have seen this week.

Frontal systems moving in tonight and tomorrow and again late Sunday will bring some rain with some temporary snow over some northern hills before the Azores high builds in towards the south by Tuesday.

 

The main models all in agreement at day 5 -the UK chart being representative of the setup

 

the coming couple of weeks look pretty straightforward with a typical Atlantic pattern of lows to the north and a high cell to the south west..

The GFS mean at day 10

 

The Azores high continues to be the main player  with the mean jet track held north of the UK any pm air will be quickly swept away east as pressure rebuilds behind any frontal systems.

In this pattern with the vortex spread across the pole east to west it doesn't favour any passage south of any Arctic cold to our shores.

[ANYWEATHER]

Well Ok, Winter started on a whimper and it ended on a whimper!!       The middle of next week looks horribly mild, no wonder this thread is dead!!!    

[Hotspur62]

Have taken a break from model watching for 3-4 days due to work commitments but having looked at todays posts and latest runs it looks very unlikely now for a cold spell for latter part of Feb. Models seem in good agreement that after a little unsettled weekend things will calm down early next week and we could have a pretty settled 7-10 days which will pretty much take us into March by that stage. It seems the US and Canada have once again been the winners this winter making it 2 pretty hard winters on the trot. Maybe it will be 3rd time lucky for UK in winter 15/16 !!

[Frosty.]

My biggest hope is we reach page 48,been stuck on p47 all day..come on chaps!

As for models, I'm still looking for that pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. At least there are some polar maritime incursions showing on the models in the next few weeks, better than nothing I would say.

[Cloud 10]

 

 

the coming couple of weeks look pretty straightforward with a typical Atlantic pattern of lows to the north and a high cell to the south west..

 

 

That's pretty much been the story of the winter,with a sort of west based positive NAO as seen below on the H500 anomalies.

 

 

 

The ECM day 10 ensemble mean looks like ending on the same note with some cold Northwesterly outbreaks and maybe a little more interest going forward.

 

 

 

A rinse and repeat winter.

[damianslaw]

The models painting an outlook very much symptomatic of the pattern we have endured all winter i.e. core of polar vortex in an unfavourable position for higher latitude blocking, with an azores high displaced from its home ridging towards the UK then backing away to the west again allowing classic ridge/trough formation pattern with colder polar maritime interludes once again invading the country before the end of the month.

 

No sustained colder or milder than average conditions on the horizon - the case all winter, all rather average with a few mild days and a few cooler wetter days more so in the north with snow returning the hills again.

 

March though typically sees a shaking in the northern hemispheric pattern. Chances of deep sustained cold returning this side of next winter now appear preety slim, but its ill wise to cast aside the chance of notable though shortlived cold blasts from the arctic occurring this side of next winter, March and April more likely to deliver arctic maritime airstreams than any other months of the year, as yesteryears have proven.

[Frosty.]

Finally reached page 48.lol

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks very encouraging for a cold blast to push SE beyond T+240 hours. I like it a lot, but then, I'm easily pleased :-)

[Cloud 10]

Finally reached page 48.lol

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks very encouraging for a cold blast to push SE beyond T+240 hours. I like it a lot, but then, I'm easily pleased :-)

 

Hopefully BA will come along soon and tell us that the extended ECM ensembles yank that high even further west.

 

then again...

[knocker]

Actually at T360 the anomaly does have it further west with a weak trough Scandinavia.

[Daniel*]

Brief exchange of colder air from a westerly quadrant enough for snow in places.

After pressure builds from SW over UK stemming the blood flow, turning drier & milder.

[Frosty.]

Hopefully BA will come along soon and tell us that the extended ECM ensembles yank that high even further west.

then again...

I've seen a lot of cr*p looking ecm ensemble means this winter but those I posted above look good, the high is retreating and cold uppers are spreading south east, I'm trying to be positive, some will say I'm very trying but I don't think the models are looking that bad really, certainly not bad enough to take a full day to fill one page! Anyhoo, I've done my bit today to keep this forum alive..lol Edited February 12, 2015 by Frosty.

[bluearmy]

Actually at T360 the anomaly does have it further west with a weak trough Scandinavia.

It does begin to look similar to the previous euro trough solutions this winter in the 10/15 day timescale where it currently sits. currently broadly reflective of the jma posted earlier. I would say its a bit further east compared to the two previous occurrences which is why i posted this morning about a 500 mile westward adjustment. Whether this will be a brief period or a more sustained one as per last time is unknown. I would guess the former at the moment with an Atlantic ridge pushing ne and then sinking across us probably favoured at the current time. Naefs broadly in the same ballpark but extending the Atlantic ridge east into Europe (which is exactly what it's done the previous two occasions)

[Woollymummy]

Some of us are still here, but there's nothing really to get excited about, today was a good day to be out working in the still thick air, making the most of the dry weather before it starts pouring tomorrow.

[bobbydog]

right, we cant control the weather. as disappointing as it may be, this winter has not been great from a snowy point of view. by all means discuss what the models are showing but give up posting the 5 minute 'cold blast' of 3 snowflakes that the 'khazakstan zx spectrum' model is showing.

also, if anyone else says "rinse and repeat" i will hunt you down and kill you...

[legritter]

I've seen a lot of cr*p looking ecm ensemble means this winter but those I posted above look good, the high is retreating and cold uppers are spreading south east, I'm trying to be positive, some will say I'm very trying but I don't think the models are looking that bad really, certainly not bad enough to take a full day to fill one page! Anyhoo, I've done my bit today to keep this forum alive..lol

Here here Frosty ,and we still have time for fun and games yet ,come on all its only 12th february and whats shown today could and probably will be different in 10/15 days time .Gfs still toying with different solutions ,an absolutely gorgeouse day today ,but outside now the wind is starting to Howl ,The weather is certainly a quick change artist ,we just need that Azores high to stop sticking its nose in or orientate in our favour ,take care all   

[knocker]

It does begin to look similar to the previous euro trough solutions this winter in the 10/15 day timescale where it currently sits. currently broadly reflective of the jma posted earlier. I would say its a bit further east compared to the two previous occurrences which is why i posted this morning about a 500 mile westward adjustment. Whether this will be a brief period or a more sustained one as per last time is unknown. I would guess the former at the moment with an Atlantic ridge pushing ne and then sinking across us probably favoured at the current time. Naefs broadly in the same ballpark but extending the Atlantic ridge east into Europe (which is exactly what it's done the previous two occasions)

 

NOAA isn't exactly in agreement with the EPS. Maybe a few more runs to see which way the wind blows, so to speak.

Edited February 12, 2015 by knocker

[Mair Snaw]

right, we cant control the weather. as disappointing as it may be, this winter has not been great from a snowy point of view. by all means discuss what the models are showing but give up posting the 5 minute 'cold blast' of 3 snowflakes that the 'khazakstan zx spectrum' model is showing.

also, if anyone else says "rinse and repeat" i will hunt you down and kill you...

ive had a great winter... lots of snow falling... probably 10-15 days of snow laying, ice days sharp frost.... im pretty happy with that... not every member on here lives in your back yard...

[FENDER.]

But you live on top of a mountain lol

[knocker]

There really isn't much to say about yesterdays EC32 update so I won't say it.

[bobbydog]

ive had a great winter... lots of snow falling... probably 10-15 days of snow laying, ice days sharp frost.... im pretty happy with that... not every member on here lives in your back yard...

so its been a great winter in your back yard.....

not in most.

for the record im commenting on the overall winter for the UK as a whole. (just in case there are any more pedantic people lucky enough to have had more than a few flakes)

not every member lives on a mountain either

Edited February 13, 2015 by bobbydog

[bluearmy]

There really isn't much to say about yesterdays EC32 update so I won't say it.

Seriously? High anomalies to the north and a broad euro low anomoly week post day 21 drifting into a sceuro low anomoly by the end of the run. Maybe difficult to get great surface wintry ness early march but an easterly would help. That follows the high that topples across - re my post last evening.

Edited February 13, 2015 by bluearmy