Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->

[phil nw.]

A little break from the High domination at the end of the week as a low dives se into France bringing some patchy rain across the country.

 

this looks like being followed by another Atlantic system a couple of days later before we see pressure rebuilding from the Azores next week.

Pretty good agreement from the main 3 at T144hrs.

 

the Scandi ridge just showing temporarily before it flattens under the pressure of the northern jet and becoming absorbed into a large Euro block from day 7..

Unfortunately it's the old story with that PV stretched w to e across the pole there's no way to get any deep cold into the UK as things are modelled currently. 

 

[knocker]

WSI Energy Weather â€@WSI_Energy 2h2 hours ago

Persistent cold weather pattern maker for the eastern U.S. as of the latest medium-range forecast from ECMWF EPS

 

 

[Frank Trough]

Well ECM changes every run but at least it now resembles GEM and GFS at D7 plus:

 

D8: ECM1-192 (2).gif   D9: ECM1-216 (1).gif D10: ECM1-240 (4).gif

 

Major differences from its 0z run but no surprise, its performance after D8 is consistently inconsistent.

 

The GEFS are slow coming out today but by T300 there remains not one member showing any inclination to build pressure further north. The theme remains HP to the south and the PV to the north, just questions as to where they meet:

 

Meteociel_-_Panel_GEFS.png

 

resembling the GFS doesn't make it right. If we'd believed the GFS and its ensembles we certainlywouldn't be seeing any rain at the weekend. The currently modelled pressure rise is still in FI - it's not in the bag. It's favourite, but if it starts to erode on current form it won't be the GFS that spots it first.

[seaside 60]

WSI Energy Weather â€@WSI_Energy 2h2 hours ago

Persistent cold weather pattern maker for the eastern U.S. as of the latest medium-range forecast from ECMWF EPS

IF we had half the snow and cold, that they have had over there, this country would be paralised for weeks.

The economy would be in tatters, lol..

According to WSI yet more snow and severe cold showing.

[Frosty.]

I think late February could be interesting in terms of colder possibilities with currently strong support for a deep scandi trough and high pressure centred to the west of the UK, there are a fair number of 12z perturbations from the GEFS showing variations of a cold northerly type pattern, and you can also see signs of this from the mean. It's noticeable how much more anticyclonic next week is looking and also a higher chance of colder surface conditions with widespread night frosts and daytime maxima struggling in the low to mid single digits Celsius, the earlier gfs runs today were a lot milder next week but not at the moment.

[Cloud 10]

A long range straw to clutch at from the 12z NAEFS this evening.

 

 

 

Could this be Tamara's GWO induced pattern repeat?

 

 

Lets hope the GEM control run has it nailed.

 

Edited February 10, 2015 by Cloud 10

[Nick F]

My latest synoptic outlook - high pressure drifts east and gives way to low pressure from the Atlantic later this week, with Atlantic fronts bringing rain on Friday and again on Monday. But models finally agree on high pressure returning from Tuesday next week.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6450;sess=

 

 

 

 

[polar vortex]

A long range straw to clutch at from the 12z NAEFS this evening.

 

naefsnh-0-0-384.pngnaefsnh-1-1-384.png

 

 

Could this be Tamara's GWO induced pattern repeat?

 

 

Lets hope the GEM control run has it nailed.

 

gensnh-0-1-384.png

Personally I do not think the model is worthy of band width it takes up, but it shows the effects that MJO forcing 

could have on the pattern that has been dominated most of the winter by the strat. I am still for thinking pattern 

change last week of Feb but I would not take any notice of GEM, JMA etc even if they show day after tomorrow 

scenarios.

Edited February 10, 2015 by polar vortex

[Cloud 10]

GFS 18z is in the ballpark.

 

[Polar Maritime]

GFS 18z is in the ballpark.

 

gfsnh-0-360.png

 

Yes nice to see, A long drawn out Northerly with -12 850's touching the far tip of Scotland, And Snow showers for the vast majority of the UK, Could this be JH's cold snap.. 

 

Edited February 10, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Daniel*]

Finally some eye candy to be seen all the way out in the far stretches of FI, chance of it verifying 1/100 but at least there's a slither of cold potential the signal is weak but we all know how sudden things can evolve.

Edited February 10, 2015 by Daniel*

[Eugene]

Has been the case this winter any warm spell gets downgraded, temps into the teens been downgraded to average on Sunday and pressure builds next tuesday/wednesday on GFS 00Z.

[chris55]

GFS 00z almost develops a cut off high at 96 with the shortwave wrapping over to the north east effectiy slicing the Scandinavian high in two.

Ukmo also interesting with the energy very much trying to go under!! All in the wrong place of course but this tiny window of potential needs watching.

Edited February 11, 2015 by chris55

[IDO]

Looking at the GEFS at D16 to see if a blocked pattern is evolving for our region and there are about two members offering potential though not quite there. One sign that continues to show promise is a change in the upper (850s) air flow. This has had its axis running from the US to Asia most of the winter, but is showing more potential to spill some of that cold into Europe. So from around D13 to D16 the mean uppers are fairly represented by this:

 

 

The GFS op and control are HP dominated from D6 to D16. Their D10 charts:

 

 

 

Both GEM and ECM have similar synoptics with HP in some guise running the show from D7 to D10:

 

 

 

I suspect that the GFS op is an outlier in respect of longevity and strength of the high from around D9, something increasingly evident since its upgrade:

 

 

The D10 mean, showing a N/S split looks more likely: 

 

However we have between D8 and D9 the repeated scenario of phasing as one HP exits east and the next wedge moves in from the SW so the spread highlights another period of changes:

 

 

 

Some members then try to set up HP further west, some are like the OP and some N/S split and another cluster signals the return of more zonal weather. A watching brief then for D9+. But good solidarity from the models up till then. That is of course apart from the UKMO which continues to throw out variances with these block -v- Atlantic setups:

 

 

Not supported by any of the other ops.

[shaky]

Looking at the GEFS at D16 to see if a blocked pattern is evolving for our region and there are about two members offering potential though not quite there. One sign that continues to show promise is a change in the upper (850s) air flow. This has had its axis running from the US to Asia most of the winter, but is showing more potential to spill some of that cold into Europe. So from around D13 to D16 the mean uppers are fairly represented by this:

 

gens-21-0-384.png

 

The GFS op and control are HP dominated from D6 to D16. Their D10 charts:

 

gens-0-1-240.png gfs-0-240 (3).png

 

Both GEM and ECM have similar synoptics with HP in some guise running the show from D7 to D10:

 

ECM1-240 (5).gif gem-0-240 (3).png

 

I suspect that the GFS op is an outlier in respect of longevity and strength of the high from around D9, something increasingly evident since its upgrade:

 

graphe4_1000_306_141___Londres (1).gif

 

The D10 mean, showing a N/S split looks more likely: gens-21-1-240 (5).png

 

However we have between D8 and D9 the repeated scenario of phasing as one HP exits east and the next wedge moves in from the SW so the spread highlights another period of changes:

 

gens-22-1-192.png gens-22-1-216.png

 

Some members then try to set up HP further west, some are like the OP and some N/S split and another cluster signals the return of more zonal weather. A watching brief then for D9+. But good solidarity from the models up till then. That is of course apart from the UKMO which continues to throw out variances with these block -v- Atlantic setups:

 

UW120-21.gif

 

Not supported by any of the other ops.

ukmo looks out on its own this morning as early as 72 hours!! Gfs and ecm agree with the overall pattern especially up to 168 hours!!! Scandi high still there this morning but looks like it will link up with the Azores high to give another uk high lol!!

[Frosty.]

Ecm 0z shows pressure falling as we head towards the weekend and this process continues into the start of next week with a risk of showers and longer spells of rain for a time but as the Azores high starts to build north east, the Atlantic energy is forced around the top of the building high and our weather pattern becomes generally settled with high pressure filling the void and taking control. As for temperatures, they look close to average on the whole but there would be quite a few frosty nights with mist and fog patches. The last frame of run shows a large complex scandi trough about to have an impact on the UK with our high being forced further south west and colder air sweeping south east.

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure will move away slowly East across Europe leaving a slack but slowly freshening Southerly flow across the UK later tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Dry at first and possibly again later with an unsettled period from late this week and into the beginning of next.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the flow blowing in an Eastward motion to the North of the UK. This is then disrupted as the flow is diverted South over the UK late this week with a sine wave pattern in the flow occurring for a time before it slowly reverts to a position north of the UK by the end of the run.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows the current High pressure slipping away East in the wake of Low pressure moving in from the West and slipping away SE towards the weekend filling steadily. The legacy will be a weak trough with further pulses of rain for a time into next week before High pressure gradually reasserts itself across the UK with a lot of dry weather through week 2 with amounts of cloud again becoming the biggest issue in otherwise fine and benign weather  and temperatures hovering just a fraction either side of average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif
 
THE GFS CONTROL  The GFS control run is largely similar with windy conditions in the North and NE at times through the period with alternating mild and rather colder conditions. In the South the more benign conditions explained within the operational text will be most likely under High pressure which will remain close by to the South or SW.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show unanimous support for High pressure to lie to the SW of the UK in two weeks time with just variations on the proximity of that High dependent in conditions experienced. most keep it far enough away to allow a NW or West flow with occasional rain especially but not exclusiveley in the North.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows Low pressure becoming much more influential later in the weekend and start to next week with the end of week rain and showers of the weekend replaced by further rain and a strong and cool WNW showery airflow to start next week before a weak ridge approaches the UK from the West towards midweek.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning indicate a much more unstable period to come as Low pressure and troughs affect the UK from Friday with the pressure pattern remaining complex with further approaching Atlantic fronts likely to affect the UK from Day 5

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM shows a quick return to High pressure building across the UK towards the middle of next week replacing the unsettled interlude of the weekend and start to the week/ Then apart from a few showers near Southern England for a time the weather should stay largely dry and quiet for most.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows the unsettled period of the weekend and start to next week give way to drier and brighter weather as High pressure builds to the South. This sets up a mild but strong SW flow across the UK by the end of next week with occasional rain in the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM shows an evolution quite close to that of NAVGEM moving forward to bring High pressure close to the South and then West of the UK with only occasional interventions of fronts affecting the far North at time with quieter and more settled conditions in average temperatures across the South.

 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean this morning maintains a mid Atlantic High likely in 10 days time with a ridge extending East towards Southern Britain while Low pressure to the North keeps more changeable conditions under Westerly breezes in the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The long term trend continues to show an unsettled period before High pressure reasserts control of the weather over the UK later.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.4 pts followed by UKM at 96.9 pts and GFS at 96.2. At 5 days ECM just about leads the field at 89.8 pts over UKMO at 89.2 pts and GFS at 86.9. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 62.4 pts over GFS's 62.0 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 46.5 pts over GFS at 43.5.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The pattern of weather across the UK remains dictated to by the behaviour of High pressure areas in the vicinity of the British Isles over the coming two weeks. There is of course the marked period of more unsettled conditions lasting 4-5 days when all areas will see some rain and showers for a time before all models show High pressure returning in some shape or form later. The position of this remains fluid at the moment but most place it close to Southern Britain with any further unsettled weather in the second half of the period likely to be across the North as SW , West or NW winds blow while the South stays rather quieter. Temperature levels look unlikely to be bothersome in terms of lowness with frost amounts only occasional as and when cloud breaks under the High pressure occurs later and behind any cold fronts which pass over the North briefly. It should also be mentioned that if the SW flow that some output verifies then temperatures will shoot above average especially in the sheltered East. So in summary a short spell of cloudier and winder weather with rain at times will be replaced by better weather again as High pressure lies close to the South. Northern areas may see occasional rain or showers in a more blustery West wind and conditions generally will never be that cold.  

Issued at 08:30 Wednesday February 11th 2015

[Frosty.]

Quite a few GEFS 00z perturbations including the control run look very similar to the Ecm 0z @ T+240 hours with a cold shot from the north incoming, so perhaps there will be a change to colder weather later in the month with high pressure becoming centred further west and a deep and large complex scandi trough influencing our weather through late February.

[legritter]

Quite a few GEFS 00z perturbations including the control run look very similar to the Ecm 0z @ T+240 hours with a cold shot from the north incoming, so perhaps there will be a change to colder weather later in the month with high pressure becoming centred further west and a deep and large complex scandi trough influencing our weather through late February.

Good morning all ,we need to Nuke our Azores high gang ,because any  Perturbations showing will be attacked by our big fat friend who thinks he can hide for a while have a Nap then come out to spoil the party .But as Frosty says some possibilitys out there towards the long range ,when looking back to last week it looked like the models were all suggesting high pressure Totally in charge but the weather had other ideas ,so still time to get a good cold spell ,all models could flip we just need i feel the Dice to fall in favour of n/west europe and uk ,lets enjoy the Hunt as its still only 11th february .  

[IDO]

My thoughts for a potentially interesting March remains hopeful if you look at the NH profile in deep FI. The 0z at D16: 

 

 

Of course with the more meridional flow we still need some luck as to where the heights build and we do not want a stationary Azores displaced over the UK. At the moment late Feb on the GFS hint at a Euro trough for cold with the UK outside that coverage:

 

 

Of course at this range it gives plenty of time for this to trend better for the UK. The cold pool, although many miles too far east moved a bit further west on the 06z:

 

 06z D16:

 

Though that pattern looks familiar (last chart); Pacific Ridge and heights in Siberia, and that combo has not really done us much good this winter to date! Anyway I expect more interesting charts coming in the next week for late Feb.

[Frosty.]

The GFS 06z operational shows unsettled weather arriving by Friday, especially across southern UK but most of the weekend looks largely dry before a persistent band of rain, some of it heavy, spreads from the west by late Sunday but more especially during Monday, clearing the east coast later on Monday. Azores high then builds in strongly and settles the weather down across most of the UK but with widespread slight frosts and sunny spells by day. The 6z shows a more unsettled spell clipping the far NE later next week with brief wintry ppn before the high takes full control again, later in FI the high stays in charge but there are signs it could pull further west allowing arctic maritime to flirt with the east of the UK.

[Mucka]

Still a long wait before anything remotely interesting shows up for coldies I'm afraid.

We are still looking to the last third or more realistically last week of Feb for a potential change to a weather pattern that would support snow prospects.

The weather here has been interminably dull and monotonous, so much so any change, even rain is welcome.

This has been another desperate winter IMBY and I saw some wet snow fall once for a couple of hours despite the cooler phases supposedly favouring my region - many did better but a poor winter overall.

A proper snowy blast around the end of Feb/early March followed by a quick thaw and early Spring is the least we deserve. 

Ensembles showing a weak signal for colder weather chances last week of Feb at least.

Edited February 11, 2015 by Mucka

[johnholmes]

Using the NOAA 6-10 and 8-14 anomaly charts then neither show anything that suggests any deep cold getting to the UK in the 15 day time scale. The ECMWF-GFS versions cannot make their minds up just what to show so can be discounted until they show consistency.

both links below

 

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 and for the GFS MJO

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foroper.shtml

not that either the actual nor the forecasts give any guidance at all!

[Eugene]

Still a long wait before anything remotely interesting shows up for coldies I'm afraid.

We are still looking to the last third or more realistically last week of Feb for a potential change to a weather pattern that would support snow prospects.

The weather here has been interminably dull and monotonous, so much so any change, even rain is welcome.

This has been another desperate winter IMBY and I saw some wet snow fall once for a couple of hours despite the cooler phases supposedly favouring my region - many did better but a poor winter overall.

A proper snowy blast around the end of Feb/early March followed by a quick thaw and early Spring is the least we deserve. 

Ensembles showing a weak signal for colder weather chances last week of Feb at least.

 

 

 

Don't agree at all, it's been a very interesting winter up until the weekend with record amount of users during the many snow events, this week is a nice calm period and pretty chilly, no major warm up on the cards with temps near average and more cold weather next week as pressure rises, this winter has been seasonal for many.

[Weather-history]

This has been another desperate winter IMBY and I saw some wet snow fall once for a couple of hours despite the cooler phases supposedly favouring my region - many did better but a poor winter overall.

.

Manchester Winter Index says otherwise

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81936-winter-2014-15-thread/?p=3169473