Southeast England & East Anglia - Weather Chat >> 1st Feb Onwards

[snowsummer]

Winter is over!!!:-D.I welcome u to brentwood snowsummer.

Thank you. Im really excited to be moving there. And im sure I remember you getting more snow than here a good few winters back! Cant wait to chase the cold next winter lol

[snowsummer]

I had a similar thing on 18 January two years ago. The poor blokes had to install my replacement windows in a howling easterly in temps of about -3 with snow settling all over them.

Remember that day really well - my daughters birthday! I promised her this year we'd build an igloo. Sadly shes yet to forgive me!

[mickeyb44]

As its quiet in here and some of the charts look really grim:

 

http://www.maplin.co.uk/p/snow-machine-n07gh

 

 

[snowsummer]

Best of luck with the move!

 

I can offer another olive branch in that in a weeks time I'm off to the Lake District for half term week. I've no doubt that'll coincide with the arrival of a screaming easterly which will be bone dry up there but deliver copious amounts of snow down here! 

Shame we cant pick our weather around the school holidays. Thick snow in feb. Warm Easter. And a 6week heatwave for the main event. Mind you, if it were that easy I guess these threads wouldnt exist and we'd lose the fun of the chase.

[yamkin]

GEFS ensembles want to bring very cold conditions to our shores from mid Feb. Very interesting times ahead  http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=360&code=0&mode=1&carte=0

[yamkin]

Did you know that the A22, A23 & A232 are looked after by TfL? This means Croydon Council do not grit these roads, TfL do!!

[Tom Montalbano]

Thanks to Chiono, lawrenk and Daniel for their kind comments, re. the account and pics of mine and Tamara's snow chase to Capel-le-Ferne, yesterday afternoon.

Believe me Ed, I've used public transport many times, in pursuit of a snow fix. I've visited Capel a few times, taking a train the whole length of Kent from Bromley (London border), to satisfy my thirst. In Feb '91, spent a great day out at Knole Park, Sevenoaks.

 

One of my most rewarding chases was during a poor winter, snow wise in the 90s. The forecast this particular evening was for a wintry mix, in the NW.Kent/SE London area. Indeed arriving in the centre of Bromley I was met with cold rain with the odd snow flake thrown in for good measure but jumped on a bus up to Biggin Hill, a mere 7 miles away but importantly an extra 500 ft or so in elevation and couldn't believe the depth of snow up there, around 4" or so, incredible!

 

An epic fail though occurred, in another poor winter, 2006 or 2007 I think, a period of snow moved through  NW Kent overnight but in quite a narrow band, down to the South coast. Got up really early and using public transport managed to arrive at Sevenoaks, to be met by a rapidly melting 2" cover, had breakfast and then set out for Tunbridge Wells. But I had no internet access at the time, so couldn't view radar returns or indeed NW SE regional thread reports, to get an idea where snow had fallen and found to my frustration that snowfall had stayed to the west of the town. Then decided to head for Sheerness, via Maidstone, as snow showers were expected to arrive on the N.Kent coast by mid-afternoon but to no avail, just clear blue skies and a biting NE wind!

 

Tamara and I are both of the opinion that ,if snows in the offing, you should go out and enjoy it while you can, as snow is such a fickle beast in this country. Just can't understand people that sit in front of their keyboards, IF they have the chance to get out and enjoy it, when it's in strikeable distance but would rather spend their time observing radar returns and fretting about any breakdown looming!

 

Returning to yesterday, Tamara and I deliberated through the morning re. where in the eastern part of Kent, we should make our way to, to give ourselves the best opportunity of seeing some snow. Tams thought Capel was our best shot but I was concerned that if a NE kicked in quickly, the area close to Canterbury/Ashford may have been our best bet. So wanting to avoid any "frictional talk" (sic), with ladies always being right of course, I went with her suggestion.

As stated, in yesterday evenings account, the timing of our arrival at Capel, could not have been better, with snow showers quickly moving into the area from the NE. Before the onset of the snow at Capel, we witnessed from our cliff top vantage point, a snow shower move out over the Channel, probably from around the Dover area, an advancing wall of silent, white beauty.Sorry but I'm filling up!

That was around 2.15 and it seemed that a streamer was kicking in, right over our heads, with the sky full of snow over and away to the N and E of us. Moderate to heavyish snow, more on than off, until about 3.30. But unfortunately, at about that time, it became fairly obvious to us that the fun and games were almost over!   The uniform cloud cover on the N/E horizon started to break up and lost that grey/whiteish appearance, that you get with snow, cumulus clouds started to look less threatening, flattened out and their bases took on a dark blue/grey colour and we both knew that convection was starting to be suppressed. The cm snow cover on grass, cars and roofs began to melt.

 

We decided to make our way back to base, between Camber and Lydd, we saw no sign of any snow through Folkestone, Hythe, etc but found to our amusement that there was more snow outside our cottage, (not a great deal) but certainly more of a covering than at Capel. Oh the irony!!

It seems the cell that hit us at Capel, which looked more potent on it's NW flank, may well have made a beeline for Camber/Lydd and deposited a decent amount there before exiting into the Channel, just west of Camber. When we got back to the cottage, we looked at the radar and seemingly what we thought was a streamer setting up, down the E.Kent coast and into the extreme east of Sussex, was a trough feature in response to those colder 850 uppers appearing just off the Kent coast, allied to that slight shift in direction of flow and although the radar profile gives the suggestion that a streamer was about to occur, it was only transient and continued to move east through Kent, Sussex and Surrey. The lack of any further showers at Capel was almost certainly due to a shift in flow, allied to pressure rising, behind that trough, any meaningful, potent convection was starting to be killed off. This is where observations out in the field can be so valuable and forecasts, warnings etc, can be taken too much at face value.

 

We later headed to Hastings to pick up an Indian takeaway, (Flavours of India and much recommended!)    and observed the distinct cut off point of the snow cover, between Camber and Rye. There were a few more decent snow flurries during the journey too.

 

Got the train back to Croydon this morning from Rye, via Hastings, Eastbourne, Gatwick and the only evidence of any remaining dustings of snow, apart from outside our cottage, which again ironically was the most, were a tiny amount on the NE facing slope near The Ridge, close to Hastings and N/E slopes of the eastern edge of the South Downs, NW of Eastbourne, adjacent to Polegate, I'm sure Ed knows where I mean, anyway!

 

The bottom line is, we had a great day out chasing the white gold, lets hope it's not the last until next Winter!

 

Regards,

Tom.

Edited February 6, 2015 by TomBR7

[Tom Montalbano]

Btw, here's the charts that depict the event that acquainted me with Capel and the day after I made my first visit there, after hearing Philip Edens account of the incredible snowfall on the east Kent coast, during his weather slot on LBC radio.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1983/Rrea00119830208.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1983/Rrea00219830208.gif

I'm sure Paul S and Tamara posted charts of events that had a very similar synoptic profile to this one and we

weren't a million miles away, from a similar type of event, in the last few days. The 850s don't look

that impressive but the 36 hour event certainly was, with 9/10inches of level snow, although the amount of drifting made it difficult to estimate but some drifts were 8 to 10 feet deep. Quite a few reports

of properties being struck by lightning along the east Kent coast.

Tom.

Edited February 6, 2015 by TomBR7

[Crepuscular Ray]

Did you know that the A22, A23 & A232 are looked after by TfL? This means Croydon Council do not grit these roads, TfL do!!

How far out from central London - South Circular, M25?

[Crepuscular Ray]

Btw, here's the charts that depict the event that acquainted me with Capel and the day after I made my first visit there, after hearing Philip Edens account of the incredible snowfall on the east Kent coast, during his weather slot on LBC radio.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1983/Rrea00119830208.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1983/Rrea00219830208.gif

I'm sure Paul S and Tamara posted charts of events that had a very similar synoptic profile to this one and we

weren't a million miles away, from a similar type of event, in the last few days. The 850s don't look

that impressive but the 36 hour event certainly was, with 9/10inches of level snow, although the amount of drifting made it difficult to estimate but some drifts were 8 to 10 feet deep. Quite a few reports

of properties being struck by lightning along the east Kent coast.

Tom.

Judging from the bit of East Sussex I'm in, that scenario was never likely and I'm thankful. Ferrying frail elderly parents to hospital appointments 30 miles apart within a space of a couple of hours is stressful enough without snow and ice buggering things up.

[Sussex Jules]

How far out from central London - South Circular, M25?

TfL manage the red routes or the main roads http://www.tfl.gov.uk/corporate/about-tfl/what-we-do/roads

[Daniel*]

Been watching old youtube videos from yesteryear, quite painful to watch but also awe-inspiring. Winter 14/15 is not going out like Millwall potentially out the Championship, I've observed the seasons have taken a wobble. I think there's a high probability for a severe/significant cold weather in the next 5 years the Sun is about to fall in a deep slumber, even during solar maxima it is unprecedented how quiet Sun has been... something is afoot. Below extract is interesting.. I find the Sun to be fascinating, it's prescience goes largely unnoticed in our daily lives. Something we take as just being there, but there's much more to it than just a combusting fireball.

During the latter half of the 17th Century, the Sun went through an extremely quiet phase - a period called the Maunder Minimum.

Historical records reveal that sunspots virtually disappeared during this time.

Dr Green says: "There is a very strong hint that the Sun is acting in the same way now as it did in the run-up to the Maunder Minimum

"We estimate that within about 40 years or so there is a 10% to 20% - nearer 20% - probability that we'll be back in Maunder Minimum conditions.".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25743806

[geminitracie]

Wow it's quiet in here ! Is there something brewing, the calm before the storm ?

[Daniel*]

Wow it's quiet in here ! Is there something brewing, the calm before the storm ?

More chance of a sandstorm! nondescript weather for the foreseeable future.

[Mokidugway]

I can report from up north there's no snow bugger ...

[Mark wheeler]

Hi all still feels cold out there. Good to see some old names back even if I was more of a lurker back then. Welcome back

[snowrye]

im sure mother nature will dish out a nice surprise before winter ends

[Crepuscular Ray]

Been watching old youtube videos from yesteryear, quite painful to watch but also awe-inspiring. Winter 14/15 is not going out like Millwall potentially out the Championship, I've observed the seasons have taken a wobble. I think there's a high probability for a severe/significant cold weather in the next 5 years the Sun is about to fall in a deep slumber, even during solar maxima it is unprecedented how quiet Sun has been... something is afoot. Below extract is interesting.. I find the Sun to be fascinating, it's prescience goes largely unnoticed in our daily lives. Something we take as just being there, but there's much more to it than just a combusting fireball.

During the latter half of the 17th Century, the Sun went through an extremely quiet phase - a period called the Maunder Minimum.

Historical records reveal that sunspots virtually disappeared during this time.

Dr Green says: "There is a very strong hint that the Sun is acting in the same way now as it did in the run-up to the Maunder Minimum

"We estimate that within about 40 years or so there is a 10% to 20% - nearer 20% - probability that we'll be back in Maunder Minimum conditions.".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25743806

So, an 80-90% chance that we won't. I'm not betting on his odds.

Edited February 6, 2015 by Crepuscular Ray

[Mokidugway]

im sure mother nature will dish out a nice surprise before winter ends

true ,March can deliver some suprises:)..

[yamkin]

How far out from central London - South Circular, M25?

 

Only within the Greater London/Surrey areas, then other boroughs will cover

[Daniel*]

So, an 80-90% chance that we won't. I'm not betting on his odds.

It is all theoretical really (An analysis of ice-cores, which hold a long-term record of solar activity, suggests the decline in activity is the fastest that has been seen in 10,000 years.) does tell something does it not? These are acclaimed people which highlight the unusualness we are overdue a ice-age going by scientist, I think we would need a volcanic eruption like Pinatubu x2 to propel such events.

[Mark wheeler]

March a couple of years ago produced great snow events if memory Serves me right. Need a change of fortune quick though. Having said that I've seen falling snow on 5 different days in the last week. Much better than last year x5

[lawrenk]

Well, with probably a little too much red wine inside me I'm going to take a "glass half full" view on this cold spell,

Given a complete lack of HLB, usually a pre exquisite for cold in our region, the fact that the majority of us have seen falling, and to a limited degree, settling snow is quite acceptable.

If it takes a bit longer before another serious snowfall, well it will be all the sweeter when it happens ala Feb 09.

For me, as odd as it seems, a lot of the fun is in "the chase" and we have at least had that this winter when compared with last.

[Mokidugway]

When I worked in London in the eighties ,I can remember snow in March , can't remember which year though .

[rubble79]

I've been watching old snow videos online too! Inspiration for this was trying to remember how well forecast feb 09 and Dec 10 were.

From what I can tell they were forecast but in 09's case, their main focus was very heavy snow falling on the Monday night. They (BBC) do show the snow along the Thames Estury on the Sunday but saying max of 10-15cms. It looked like we were expecting a front to move eastwards over the monday evening that would bring more heavy snow.

Correct me if I'm wrong ( I was living in St Albans at that time so missed most of the streamer fun but still managed about 12cms from what I thought was the initially forecast snow and not the streamer??) but I thought the Sunday snow was quite a surprise in that the famous streamer set up and deposited up to a foot of snow that night? That streamer wasn't really forecast and took people by surprise despite the warnings for heavy snow?

I also recall that the Monday night snow didn't materialise so if it hadn't been for the streamer, it'd not have been that great - well, still decent but nothing like what people ended up with.

Dec 10 I remember better as I was back in Surrey. Snow was forecast and indeed we had a slight covering on the Sunday night/Monday AM. Then quite a bit of snow on the Monday night with light snow falling non stop Tuesday. Tuesday night was forecast for more snow but a few cm's. In the end it was really heavy snow that suddenly intensified over the region and left me with just over a ft of snow (combined settled total since Monday) - what was the cause of that?

Is that correct? Or were the forecasts pretty much spot on?