Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/03/15 onwards

[Convective]

First few sferics being put out in western France now, too!

[Mokidugway]

if it's the one over the west country Moki, then I'm pretty sure it's a false detection....it showed up on the NWv6 radar then quickly disappeared off the radar archive, the atmosphere across southern england is relatively stable at the moment

yes thought that myself , sticking that one in the anoprop dustbin !!.

[A.J]

First few sferics being put out in western France now, too!

yes, 

 

for those who haven't seen it yet, here the Blitzortung real time lightning map...   http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en

[A.J]

Hi AJ, not to be picky, but not really post-frontal when they're occuring ahead of cold front... though I know you mean post-warm front.  Usually, though, 'post-frontal' refers to behind clearance of cold front. 

 

Just trying to save confusion in case others not sure whether we're pre or post front lol.

I know what you mean mate, post warm frontal I was meaning..lol......I looked at the meto FAX charts and they're swarming with fronts from this complicated system!

[A.J]

here's a screen shot of the current lightning map (blitzortung)

 

relatively quiet at the moment...it won't be in a few hours time!

 

 

 

[Daniel*]

Temperature: 16.8*C

Dew Point: 9.5*C

Humidity: 62%

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Just testing my cameras in prep and my Nikon J1 keeps switching itself on in it's bag :-(

[Nick F]

Quite evident on WV imagery dark stripe of dry air intrusion sweeping NE on the flank of a strong jet streak moving NE across Spain and into western France this evening .. this is creating strong PVA and instability over Nern Spain and offshore over southern Biscay towards the centre of that low moving NE:

 

 

 

Triple point just north of NW Spain now and cold front pushing E and NE across Spain and then on towards western France as the low moves NE across the BoB tonight, then the cold front moving NE across England in the early hours of Tuesday, this is where we could see the highest potential for storms 03z - 08z ahead or along CFand not so much this first area of heavy rain moving north this evening and early night associated with the second more active warm front lifting north (the first warm front tending to de-activate) - this appears to be backed by 12z HIRLAM and UkMET

 

 

Edited May 4, 2015 by Nick F

[Rain123]

Will there be any chance for thunder in Surrey/Hampshire tonight/tomorrow? 

[Mapantz]

I wouldn't worry too much about your local obs yet, steepening lapse rates and goodies don't come in 'til after midnight.

[Thunderbolt_]

LightningMaps at 18:00. It seems that the storms over W France and the Bay of Biscay are starting to gradually intensify.

 

[Supacell]

The first batch of rain has already reached approximately a line from about Gloucester to north of London, this seems earlier than expected. 

[Noahjoe]

Very calm here at the moment, almost no wind with light rain and feeling milder than earlier...calm before the storm?

[Chris K]

The first batch of rain has already reached approximately a line from about Gloucester to north of London, this seems earlier than expected. 

 

Apart from some precipitation development ahead of the front, the positioning seems in-line with the 06z NMM 3km timings at the moment, with the frontal boundary now approaching the S coast of England.

[Thunderbolt_]

Slowly but surely, everything is starting to kick off in the Bay of Biscay...

 

[Noahjoe]

Slowly but surely, everything is starting to kick off in the Bay of Biscay...

 

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Is that the area to be watching over the next few hours? As opposed to central France?

[Thunderbolt_]

Is that the area to be watching over the next few hours? As opposed to central France?

 

As of now yes. They are forming behind a band of rain just to the north of it, which should reach the UK during the late hours of tonight and early hours of tomorrow.

Edited May 4, 2015 by Thunderbolt_

[Tom Jarvis]

Anyone know what is the best way of capturing lightning on a go pro hero 4? Want to get some lighting pics tonight if there is a storm nearby

[Harry]

Strikes showing across N France now

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Slowly getting interesting.. Ish

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Strikes showing across N France now

 

Fat chance they will hit the UK though!

[Noahjoe]

As of now yes. They are forming behind a band of rain just to the north of it, which should reach the UK during the late hours of tonight and early hours of tomorrow.

Okay thank you, I'll keep a close eye on it then!

[William Grimsley]

Am I too far west here?

[Thunderbolt_]

Okay thank you, I'll keep a close eye on it then!

 

You're welcome.

_______

 

They're kicking off across N France now. This is a sign that the atmosphere is getting increasingly unstable now:

 

Edited May 4, 2015 by Thunderbolt_

[carl1980]

Anyone got a good link for a Paris webcam?