Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/03/15 onwards

[William Grimsley]

Oh yes, I'm always here! Bring on another storm season! Last year was fantastic here!

[Harry]

Someone is going to get lucky tonight I feel, just could be to far east.

Time will tell, radar watching time haha!!

 

Strikes me (pardon the pun) that any action could develop quite quickly, to the extent that radar watching might be a little pointless...frontal bands which look benign might suddenly intensify, or alternatively lose oomph quite quickly...curtains wide open and windows ajar, particularly if it'll be humid feeling, best bet in my eyes

[Stormyking]

Hmm time to start posting again me thinks, right back in my element with storms , quite an interesting night indeed, going to be interesting to see how far west the good stuff can get, think im quite boardalined at the moment

[Greeny]

Oh yes, I'm always here! Bring on another storm season! Last year was fantastic here!

 

Welcome back William, liking the new piccy as well, better than the last one I reckon.

[William Grimsley]

Welcome back William, liking the new piccy as well, better than the last one I reckon.

It's a bit out of date still! Haha!

[Thunderbolt_]

the current state of play (image © sat24

 

Things brewing to the SW over Biscay into western France

 

Untitled.png

 

Looks like there's some very heavy rain in it too. Not much lightning yet, but nonetheless it is still in the early stages.

 

[A.J]

Strikes me (pardon the pun) that any action could develop quite quickly, to the extent that radar watching might be a little pointless...frontal bands which look benign might suddenly intensify, or alternatively lose oomph quite quickly...curtains wide open and windows ajar, particularly if it'll be humid feeling, best bet in my eyes

spot on H....I remember one of last year's plumes (july I think)....we had a trough over southern coastal counties that was forecasted to destabilize....by around 10pm radar returns were just showing a few spotty showers amungst some general light rain....by midnight, the plume had rapidly destablized and numerous strong elevated storms had broken out over southern counties

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

I remember walking home in that!

[Lauren]

Oh yes, I'm always here! Bring on another storm season! Last year was fantastic here!

I'm right near you in Colyton several times a year. I always find it funny down that way how the valleys really influence the weather.

[Noahjoe]

spot on H....I remember one of last year's plumes (july I think)....we had a trough over southern coastal counties that was forecasted to destabilize....by around 10pm radar returns were just showing a few spotty showers amungst some general light rain....by midnight, the plume had rapidly destablized and numerous strong elevated storms had broken out over southern counties

I do seem to remember sleeping right through that...i went to sleep feeling disappointed and when I checked on the Blitzortung app when I woke up I was shocked to see there had been a few storms that had looked impossible when i went to sleep

[Mokidugway]

No signs of destabilisation as yet but it's shure moving in quick !!.

[Harry]

spot on H....I remember one of last year's plumes (july I think)....we had a trough over southern coastal counties that was forecasted to destabilize....by around 10pm radar returns were just showing a few spotty showers amungst some general light rain....by midnight, the plume had rapidly destablized and numerous strong elevated storms had broken out over southern counties

I remember that very well...I think it might have been the 17th July as the next evening/night we had the mothership MCS (rare Estofex Lvl 2). I too went to bed thinking it'd be largely western areas being affected by the trough, only to be woken by my nearest and dearest in the early hours saying there was lightning!! That was a cracking night with the entire southern and western skylines lighting up like a disco and barrelling right overhead - some extremely close CGs that might. Then however it was very high humidity and if I recall correctly temps still in the low 20s in the early hours...hoping for that might be a little wishful thinking.

Are we expecting humidity to rise much through today or will it be heralded by the warm front overnight? I'm trying to revise for exams this week so trying to avoid chart gazing too much :'(

[Mapantz]

I remember that very well...I think it might have been the 17th July as the next evening/night we had the mothership MCS (rare Estofex Lvl 2). I too went to bed thinking it'd be largely western areas being affected by the trough, only to be woken by my nearest and dearest in the early hours saying there was lightning!! That was a cracking night with the entire southern and western skylines lighting up like a disco and barrelling right overhead - some extremely close CGs that might. Then however it was very high humidity and if I recall correctly temps still in the low 20s in the early hours...hoping for that might be a little wishful thinking.

Are we expecting humidity to rise much through today or will it be heralded by the warm front overnight? I'm trying to revise for exams this week so trying to avoid chart gazing too much :'(

 

 

No timestamps or info on the humidity charts. But, this is for 18:00, 21:00 and 00:00 respectively..

 

[Harry]

Cheers Mapantz

Goes to show what a poor start to the season it's been convectively, given that this thread is for 01/03 onwards and we are only at page 18!

Edited May 4, 2015 by Harry

[alexisj9]

I remember that very well...I think it might have been the 17th July as the next evening/night we had the mothership MCS (rare Estofex Lvl 2). I too went to bed thinking it'd be largely western areas being affected by the trough, only to be woken by my nearest and dearest in the early hours saying there was lightning!! That was a cracking night with the entire southern and western skylines lighting up like a disco and barrelling right overhead - some extremely close CGs that might. Then however it was very high humidity and if I recall correctly temps still in the low 20s in the early hours...hoping for that might be a little wishful thinking.

Are we expecting humidity to rise much through today or will it be heralded by the warm front overnight? I'm trying to revise for exams this week so trying to avoid chart gazing too much :'(

It's feeling humid here now. Weather station says 89% at the moment.

Edited May 4, 2015 by alexisj9

[Mapantz]

I've noticed that the 06Z NMM has done away with the morning showers, or moved them to the far SE. The Euro4 however, does show a bulk of heavy showers moving up in the morning. A good example of why the precip charts should only be used as guide, and that the models do struggle on features coming up from the south, particularly if there's a thundery element added to the mixture.

 

 

Thank goodness for 5 minute radars!

[alexisj9]

Looks like 2km WRF-NMM is resolving supecells this evening for parts of France with shortwave trough in warm sector:

 

nmm_fr1-1-11-0.png

 

06z synoptic outlook:

 

fax_tue06z.png

 

Early morning period of most interest for south-east/east quarter as CF engages plume of moisture/steep lapse rates... 

 

Waiting for the rest of the NMM output...

That met chart looks a mess, lot's going on that's for sure.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Might be me laying in the middle of this field in the sun.. But the air does feel nice and "thick"

[Greeny]

Might be me laying in the middle of this field in the sun.. But the air does feel nice and "thick"

over the last couple of hours the humidity has risen and in turn made the sun feel hotter here in Norfolk.

[Harry]

Skies hazing over here though can't say I've noticed much of a jump in humidity yet, hence why I queried earlier.

[William Grimsley]

I agree with Harry, feeling pretty comfortable here at the moment with a breezy SE wind.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Really hoping this delivers something tonight, certainly feeling quite warm in the sun here.

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Feeling warm here in the sun, but quite hazy outside, 49% RH here, wasn't in this morning so not sure what it's climbed from

[Sprites]

Ive seen a quite distinct 22degree Halo earlier, easier to spot with sunglasses.

Some good cbs yesterday, tonight im not expecting thunder here.

[Lauren]

Whilst we've seen storms come out of not much, I'm not confident that laters set up has enough oomph to give anything more than maybe a couple of strikes for a very select few.

 

I am of course happy to be proved wrong!