Southeast England & East Anglia - Weather Chat >> 1st March Onwards

[Captain Shortwave]

Looks like temperatures may have been undercooked for today, already 20C here under clear blue skies.

[Daniel*]

Looks like temperatures may have been undercooked for today, already 20C here under clear blue skies.

Almost 23C currently very nice.

[Tom Montalbano]

It is with the deepest regret that I have to inform you our dear friend and weather buddy Chris Mantle lost his short battle with cancer and passed away last night. Chris was a big part of our community on the SE & EA thread, for those of us that had the pleasure of meeting him in person at our regional get together events know he was a true gentleman, although some of us have moved on from Netweather I thought I would share the sad news as I'm sure there are still many here who will remember him fondly - RIP Chris x

 

Really shocked and saddened to read that news Ali. My thoughts and best wishes to all his family.

 

Although I never met Chris by all accounts he was a really nice and decent guy. I did have a little contact with Chris though, through PMs, in respect of the SE Snow Cup. After a rather chaotic attempt at running a Snow Cup a few years ago I realised I needed some sort of spreadsheet to give the competition a semblance of order and to make the format more manageable, after the interest amongst members "snowballed"!

 

Having very limited IT skills I put out a request, on the SE thread, for a member with the ability to put together a spreadsheet to accommodate the number of members that were interested in entering the Snow Cup, this would've have been 2 winters ago now. Step forward Chris, at no hesitation!

He contacted me and kindly put together a spreadsheet that I felt sure would've worked superbly had we had just an average winter's snowfall but as we now know, we all had a disastrous winter in terms of snow, sod's law I suppose.

 

RIP Chris,

Tom.

[Captain Shortwave]

Right, the latest NMM output has increased hopes for us, showing thunderstorms pushing out of northern France and Belgium towards our region. Temperatures still predicted to max out at 27C, though higher is possible I feel.

[Biggin]

It is with the deepest regret that I have to inform you our dear friend and weather buddy Chris Mantle lost his short battle with cancer and passed away last night. Chris was a big part of our community on the SE & EA thread, for those of us that had the pleasure of meeting him in person at our regional get together events know he was a true gentleman, although some of us have moved on from Netweather I thought I would share the sad news as I'm sure there are still many here who will remember him fondly - RIP Chris x

Sorry to here this he was a good person.

[Biggin]

Right, the latest NMM output has increased hopes for us, showing thunderstorms pushing out of northern France and Belgium towards our region. Temperatures still predicted to max out at 27C, though higher is possible I feel.

 Is this for tonight Captain or Tomorrow afternoon?? Also anyone got a time for the "weather" overnight to begin ??

[Biggin]

Crazy day over in Spain Lightningwise BTW http://www.sat24.com/en/sp

Edited June 11, 2015 by Biggin

[95 Degrees]

24.1C now, easily beating the 21.3C high set back in April.

[Captain Shortwave]

 Is this for tonight Captain or Tomorrow afternoon?? Also anyone got a time for the "weather" overnight to begin ??

Tomorrow evening, it will be a case of monitoring storm development over France, if it really kicks off then we could be in for a real treat, I would be surprised if we escaped with nothing to be honest.

 

Sunny, breezy, temperature is at an average 21C, but feels much better compared to the last few days.

Edited June 11, 2015 by Captain shortwave

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North france starting to light up.. 

[Biggin]

Lovely n warm here, still a slight breeze but humidity seems higher (must get a weather station) Am I right we dont want too much to happen overnight n leave cloud behind preventing temps rising as much tomorrow?? Off to work for four hours l8ters.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Guys.. We don't want any of those storms over France near us tonight.. Let the SW have them it could spoil tomorrow.. For once STAY AWAY STORMS!! Last Friday could have been completely different had we not had so much crud (which I warned about)

[VillagePlank]

Guys.. We don't want any of those storms over France near us tonight.. Let the SW have them it could spoil tomorrow.. For once STAY AWAY STORMS!! Last Friday could have been completely different had we not had so much crud (which I warned about)

 

True, but these are forecast to be imports not homegrown, so convection will happen elsewhere.

[alexisj9]

BBC - But after the warm weather of this week..

 

WHAT BLOODY WARM WEATHER? It's been three days of cold and cloud, two days of 13C! 

lol not been warm at all has it, Apart form today.

[stainesbloke]

Right, the latest NMM output has increased hopes for us, showing thunderstorms pushing out of northern France and Belgium towards our region. Temperatures still predicted to max out at 27C, though higher is possible I feel.

  

North france starting to light up..

Yes, looks like we could be seeing some storms tomorrow! Think we could hit 28-29C tomorrow if there are sunny spells. The storms across NW France are really getting going now, the eastern flank especially! Bodes well for us. Don't think 'crud' will be as much of a problem this time, SE winds tend to be clearer. But we'll see, quite exciting nonetheless.

[VillagePlank]

Skew-T for London Heathrow, tomorrow, 3pm from GFS 6z

 

 

So, a moderately convective atmosphere (K=30) with likely thunderstorms, perhaps isolated severe thunderstorms in some places fueled by semi-juicy moisture content (Dewp = 16.8 ) PBL top is approx 975hPa and not much shear (although some is present - it will help) and/or wind speed in this layer, so breaking the cap (CIN=23) will require surface heating or other forcing (sea-breezes, convergence zones, imports) Should this be broken, storms will be (significantly) enhanced even in the marginally unstable atmosphere (LI = - 3 ) Any cells that form will have a silly amount of rain (PW = 3.38) or hail (CAPE = 769) in them

Edited June 11, 2015 by Sparkicle

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Those storms in Northern France damn

[Rain123]

Lovely day again today, but I need some rain to dampen my garden. Bring on the storms!

[Harps]

Beautiful day today though that nagging wind just won't go away. Hopefully similar tomorrow though it's looking like a repeat of last Friday which was a disappointing dull sticky day with heavy showers. Wouldn't mind a storm tomorrow and we could do with a drop of rain though I'd really just like a nice settled spell of weather for once

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Sad to hear of the passing of a member - R.I.P.  Conditions here today have been superb, although the breeze, which was light earlier, picked-up during the afternoon.

[Mark wheeler]

Well a lovely day today on my day off which makes a huge change. We took the kids to Chessington world of adventures which was superb today no Qs anywhere so straight on and off rides . Got a tan too now so not quite so milky white like before. Hope the storms come but not during the night as the kid is terrified she just saw the forecast and said thunder daddy Nooo I don't like it.

[Steve C]

Very impressive CAPE charts on the 12z NMM.

 

Surface Based CAPE for 3 o'clock tomorrow afternoon for instance.

 

 

Edited June 11, 2015 by Steve C

[Daniel*]

Very impressive CAPE charts on the 12z NMM.

 

Surface Based CAPE for 3 o'clock tomorrow afternoon for instance.

 

SB CAPE 15.png

It would go up like Bonfire Night,

I have a suspicion the NMM is overcooking it past letdowns are putting my feet close to the ground.

Hard not to get excited - but we've been here before.

[Steve C]

It would go up like Bonfire Night,

I have a suspicion the NMM is overcooking it past letdowns are putting my feet close to the ground.

Hard not to get excited - but we've been here before.

 

To be honest, like always, it's potential. Radar watching will soon come to the fore. I'd say the 12z runs are better than the earlier ones today though.

[bobbydog]

Guys.. We don't want any of those storms over France near us tonight.. Let the SW have them it could spoil tomorrow.. For once STAY AWAY STORMS!! Last Friday could have been completely different had we not had so much crud (which I warned about)

lol i would let those storms near us as they are now! (if by some miracle they could make it over the channel) i doubt many of us storm freaks would be complaining at a strike rate of around 7000 per hour!!