Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->

[Frosty.]

I don't know why anyone would be happy about a return to cool and unsettled, haven't we seen enough of that for the last 6 months?

I'm not buying into the unsettled outlook since it was only this afternoon the met office mentioned a fine and very warm outlook for the southeast of the UK, I still believe the south and east are on course for a much warmer and sunnier outlook.

[damianslaw]

A preety decent week for most for the week ahead, more so the SE quarter who will see mild/very mild conditions throughout and some good sunny spells as the week wears on. ECM and UKMO showing a change for the NW by Friday with heights sinking away to the SE allowing the atlantic to encroach with associated weather front and wind.

 

The weekend is shown to be a classic NW-SE split with the NW wet and windy and cool, SE very mild/dry albeit probably cloudy.

 

Longer term - plenty of signals for a generally unsettled outlook for all with temps around average, but feeling disappointing after what looks like being a week or so of preety fine weather.

 

Its pleasing to see the weather has turned good just in time for Easter, perfect timing, couldn't have asked for better timing.

[knocker]

The GFS ops is a bit messy this morning so sticking to the near future/

 

It's going for the breakdown of the fine spell on Friday and then has another low nipping in from the west by Saturday giving a wet and windy day in Scotland.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

 

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY APRIL 6TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A large High pressure area will remain centred across the UK through the next 48 hours.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming settled and dry with some sunshine and average temperatures but with a risk of occasional night frosts. Perhaps becoming more unsettled from the West next week.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream forecast shows the flow well to the Northwest  of the UK tracking NE between Scotland and Iceland. It sinks slowly South across the UK next weekend and early next week before breaking up late in the period.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows High pressure over the UK to start this week with fine and dry weather. Later in the week it is shown to decline away SE allowing a trough to cross East on Friday giving some rain for all. Pressure then rebuilds close to the South with fine weather here while the North stays more changeable with rain at times. Then late in the run High pressure spreads it's influence back across all areas with fine and dry weather for all as now.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL  The GFS Control Run is very similar to the operational again this morning in the first week or so but it is much less decisive about the late in the run High pressure with Low pressure spoiling the party for many still with further rain at times and temperatures yo-yoing day to day

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS  The GFS clusters today continue too wrestle with High pressure type synoptics with the dominating cluster this morning indicating NW winds around High pressure to the West and SW. Rain is possible but more likely over the North than the South. The minority clustering shows High pressure ranging from being over or just to the North of the UK.  

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO shows a Hiatus in the High pressure pattern at the end of this week as a trough crosses East over all areas with some rain before pressure rebuilds across the South of the UK at the weekend with more fine and sunny weather though cloudier skies are more likely under a fresher West or SW wind in the North

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts indicate High pressure slipping away from the UK later in the week setting up a Southerly flow. The 84hr chart of this morning looks very different to the comparative 96hr chart released last night as the former shows a more active pressure pattern over the Eastern Atlantic sending a trough East over the UK later not shown on the 96hr and 120hr charts.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today goes all out in taking the UK back into wet and windy weather next week as the High pressure area currently sitting across the UK moves away SE with steadily falling pressure with troughs and Low pressure over the UK by next week with wet and windy conditions for most

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too begins to wind the Atlantic up a few gears towards the end of it's run too though High pressure just about holds on for the South and East in the covering period with rain arriving across the North and West then with a freshening SW wind..

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM also shows more unsettled conditions developing next week as High pressure to the SE loses it's grip. A South or SW breeze will be the precursor to this with pleasantly warm weather before troughs spread East occasionally over next weekend and more coherently next week with by then strong winds and rain at times for all in average temperatures..

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart is continuing to show a decline in High pressure with a SW flow likely over the UK in 10 days or so with rain at times for all but more especially across the North and West. In a SW breeze though temperatures should be average if not slightly above in the South and East.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to strengthen their trend towards the likelihood of more unsettled weather arriving from the Atlantic next week as High pressure declines away SE.  

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.7 pts followed by UKM at 97.3 pts and GFS at 96.5. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 91.3 pts over UKMO at 90.2 pts and GFS at 86.2. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 66.9 pts over GFS's 62.2 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 48.4 pts over GFS at 45.4. 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

MY THOUGHTS With cloud amounts having broken up across the UK more readily than was hoped over the last 24 hours there is every chance of some very pleasant temperatures at times this week with some lengthy spells of sunshine as High pressure holds firm across the UK. There will be some areas still at risk from low cloud and grey skies at times and these may float around to various places through the week making day to day predictions hard to quantify. A Southerly flow looks like developing later in the week as the High slips away to the SE with even warmer air for some before cloud increases from the West and a trough crossing East through Friday brings a spell of rain and in the West wind for a time. Thereafter there is a split concensus between High pressure building back across the UK for next week but a growing trend for a more mobile Atlantic regime to develop under stronger SW winds and rain in places from quite early next week. It's too early to call which of these scenarios is more likely to be true as the Jet flow pattern looks responsible once more moving back South across the UK somewhat next week. However, in the meantime let's enjoy our first real taste of Spring with temperatures for many the warmest since the warm few days of Halloween last year but gardeners and growers beware night's are still sufficiently long through this week to permit frost in places especially low lying areas though this then looks much more unlikely next week as the wind and cloud amounts will testify too.    

 

Issued at 08:00 Monday April 6th 2015

[Summer Sun]

UKMO hinted at pressure rebuilding yesterday afternoon for the coming weekend and its doing it again this morning

 

 

ECM for the same time

 

 

The Atlantic will win out in the end but when remains the question we could be looking at a NW / SE split initially next week with the south holding onto some settled weather till around mid week whilst in the north west pressure is lower.

 

Charts like the one below aren't making it past day 9 at the moment....thankfully

 

[Milhouse]

The chance of another pulse of warm air for the start of next week showing on the ECM and GFS

 

[Frosty.]

I think the Gfs 6z looks pretty good for the south and east, this week will be pleasantly warm in many areas with sunny spells and becoming very warm for a time later this week, it turns cooler and more unsettled at the weekend but high pressure soon builds north and east again next week with the warmth and sunshine returning to the south and east, compared to the latest met office update, the 6z op run looks very good.

Edited April 6, 2015 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

Looking at UKMO I'd say the further south you are this weekend the drier its likely to be with pressure here remaining fairly high the further north and west you are the greater chance of seeing breezier conditions with some rain

 

[Milhouse]

After a brief return to something cooler and more unsettled at the weekend we see rising temperature and more fairly dry conditions into the following week. The SE will see the best of the warm sunshine with rain at times affecting the NW.

 

[Winter Cold]

Too much faith in the GFS im afraid. It has a problem with high pressure and always wants to show it since the upgrade. Its been proven wrong time and time again through the winter and again earlier this week it was showing the high being maintained, whereas the reality is that there will be a breakdown this weekend, or at least a big push of one, and then probably further lows next week,which wasnt showing at all on the GFS until nearer the time. I dont beleive the charts above of the high re-asserting itself yet. Everyone should be cautious of it by now

[Summer Sun]

ECM hinting that pressure for the south especially could remain relatively high into next week so a lesser risk of rain here and pleasantly warm in any sunshine, more unsettled further north where pressure is lower

 

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean shows a northwest / southeast split next week with the northwest of the UK generally unsettled and cool but further south and east looks like becoming fine and pleasantly warm again after the unsettled cooler blip next weekend, looking further ahead, the south continues to have the most pleasant weather.

[Milhouse]

It will take a big upgrade to show high pressure taking control of our weather again next week just like it has done this week. But what we do have next week is a run of mobile south westerlies with the occasional Azores ridge bringing pleasantly warm conditions more especially to the SE. For much of next week the UK sits mid way between high and low pressure with normally results in a traditional NW/SE split. Highlighted quite nicely here:

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Too much faith in the GFS im afraid. It has a problem with high pressure and always wants to show it since the upgrade. Its been proven wrong time and time again through the winter and again earlier this week it was showing the high being maintained, whereas the reality is that there will be a breakdown this weekend, or at least a big push of one, and then probably further lows next week,which wasnt showing at all on the GFS until nearer the time. I dont beleive the charts above of the high re-asserting itself yet. Everyone should be cautious of it by now

Yes, will be the slippery slope later this week, enjoy the fine conditions, because it wont last....

[knocker]

Tonight's anomalies.

 

A ridge central Europe although with different orientation with the GEFs pushing further north Trough to the north west of the UK with a west or SW flow over the latter.

 

So surface analysis general area of LP Greenland east into northern Europe with HP central Europe and SW of the UK. The exact latitudinal alignment of these systems dictates which part of the UK comes under their influence but on a sliding scale the better the weather and warmer temps as one moves south.

Charts weatherbell

 

[knocker]

A brief look at the latest EC32 update.

 

At T240 the anomaly has ridge Central Europe with a trough NNW of UK into Eastern Atlantic. Surface, low north of the UK giving a NW flow and very unsettled. Temps around average.

 

At T408 still with general area of LP N/NE of UK but more progression of HP to the SW and temps below average.

 

At T576 still tending zonal with LP to NW  and no great progression of the HP.

 

End of the run tending towards more influence from the HP but weak zonality and temps perhaps below average a jot.

 

Summary.

 

No obvious signs of settled and warm weather, particularly in the ten - seventeen day time frame, although there will be periods of this particularly in the south.

[Captain Shortwave]

By the looks of it any unsettled spell will be more of a blip than anything else, the models building high pressure back into the UK by the start of next week.

ECM

 

GFS

 

UKMO

 

Temperatures look to sit around the mid to high teens this week before dropping over the weekend and into next Monday. After that the temperatures could rise again with the potential for temperatures to break widely into the low twenties potentially later next week if the high does set up favourably

[Frosty.]

The weather is great this week now, lots of sunshine once fog clears and temperatures rising higher each day according to the Gfs 00z with Friday being the warmest day with 20c in places as we import warmer air from southern Europe on Thursday and friday, it's not until Friday night and Saturday that a cold front pushes southeast introducing cooler fresher air for the weekend with showery rain in places but still with sunny spells, especially further south. High pressure builds north and east again next week with a repeat of this week, it's even warmer than this week with temperatures into the low 70's F later next week...hopefully something like this run will verify.

Edited April 7, 2015 by Frosty.

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY APRIL 7TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure continues to be centred across the UK with light winds for all both today and tomorrow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming settled and dry with some sunshine and average temperatures but with a risk of occasional night frosts. Perhaps becoming more unsettled from the West next week.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream forecast shows the flow well to the Northwest  of the UK tracking NE between Scotland and Iceland. It sinks slowly South towards the UK next weekend and early next week before breaking up for a time later in the period and realigning across Southern Britain at the end of the run.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows High pressure over the UK moving slowly East and SE across Europe in the coming days with a light Southerly flow developing. A cold front moves East over the weekend with a little rain for all and an introduction to cooler conditions and a North/South split in conditions thereafter. The North will see SW winds and rain at times while High pressure maintained to the South and SE of Britain will return fine and dry conditions here before a general shift to unsettled, colder and windier weather for all in association with more vigorous Low pressure arrives at the end of the run.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is very similar to the operational in sequence this morning with a brief spell of rain at the weekend freshening things up for many but maintaining a lot of fine weather to the South thereafter as High pressure rebuilds. Then late in the run as the operational the Control Run shows a dip back a month or so as cold and unsettled weather arrives from the North with rain or wintry showers at times.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters still have the jury out on the conditions likely across the UK in two weeks time. The Clusters show a variety of options none with overall dominance but mostly surrounding the position of High pressure in relation to the UK and the conditions that will likely bring. There is a split between High to the West and SW with cold Northerlies or rather chilly NW'lies or a gentler Westerly or Southerly with High pressure to the East. The biggest split though favours a NW flow with high pressure to the SW.  

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO shows High pressure over the UK currently receding away to the East and SE later in the week. A cold front is then shown to cross West to East across the UK at the weekend followed by a recovery of High pressure over the South next week.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts look very similar to the raw data with High pressure moving slowly East with a light Southerly then stronger SW flow developing at the end of the week. A cold front bringing rain crosses East at the weekend followed by a build of High pressure from the SW again by 120hrs.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today shows High pressure slowly receding away East through the week with a slow change to more unsettled weather introduced by a cold front crossing East across the Uk early in the weekend. The rise in pressure thereafter from this run is less pronounced maintaining a breezy West flow across the UK for all parts next week with some rain at times before a hint of a cold Northerly with showers moving South os shown at the end frame of the run.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a cold front crossing East at the weekend with a little rain for all briefly. Pressure then recovers for a time across the South with fine weather here though Northern Britain looks less likely to share in much of this before a stronger Westerly flow for all by the end of the run looks like bringing more in the way of cloud and at least a little rain for many.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM also shows High pressure declining away East later this week before a cold front crosses East across the UK bringing a little rain for a time on Saturday. Thereafter the pattern looks like being breezy for a time under a Westerly especially in the North before conditions become complex but benign with High pressure never far away to the South or East and the UK lying in nomansland synoptically probably delivering several days of quiet if rather cloudy weather with just a little rain most likely across the West and North in the last few days of the run.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart shows a Westerly flow across the UK with some evidence of likely troughing somewhere around the UK with some rain possible at times in temperatures near average.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to strengthen their trend towards the likelihood of more unsettled weather arriving from the Atlantic next week as High pressure declines away SE though this may be restricted towards the North.  

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.7 pts followed by UKM at 97.2 pts and GFS at 96.5. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 91.1 pts over UKMO at 89.9 pts and GFS at 87.9. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 66.7 pts over GFS's 62.6 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 48.1 pts over GFS at 44.3. 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS Changes are slow across the UK over the coming few weeks with the main theme of High pressure continuing to hold sway for much of the time at least where Southern Britain is concerned. This week shows High pressure continuing to bring some fine, warm Spring weather for all before all models support a cold front from the West preceded by a warm Southerly flow bringing a change to cooler weather with some rain on Saturday. Thereafter it looks like Southern areas will return to High pressure based conditions, fresher feeling but dry with average temperatures. Further North it looks likely that rather more unsettled conditions will prevail with some rain at times and later still there is a theme between GFS and GEM that a surge of cold air from the North could arrive in the second week with all the computations that may bring in the form of wintry showers and unwelcome frosts by night. However, this has by no means cross model support at this stage but will need to be watched in subsequent runs. Until then though we have a fair amount of Spring warmth and settled weather to come this week and next week too looks quite reasonable at times at least across the South.    

 

Issued at 08:00 Tuesday April 7th 2015

[Summer Sun]

Looking at ECM and UKMO this morning the 'breakdown' could be short lived with high pressure building in for most of the UK once more next week with the next breakdown still at day 9, 10

 

UKMO shows pressure beginning to rise again on Sunday & Monday with any unsettled weather restricted further north

 

 

ECM shows the high building further north so more of the UK would be dry what cloud amounts would be like is anyone guess at this range

 

 

If the cloud does break and allows some sunshine it will be feeling pleasantly warm especially the further south you are under light winds

 

 

[Frosty.]

I think temperatures this week could become higher than the Gfs 00z shows, tomorrow afternoon favoured spots could reach 20c and then even higher on Thursday and Friday with 22 Celsius for parts of England, a cold front will be held at bay to the northwest of Scotland until Friday night, a cooler more unsettled blip for the weekend although the southeast still looks mild on saturday but then a rinse and repeat of the current fine warm spell, indeed, even warmer.

[knocker]

Regarding next week I'm inclined at the moment to stick it in the pending tray.

 

The ECM anomaly has the ridge to the SE and influencing the UK (is that a REX block I ask myself) with trough orientated SW mid Atlantic giving pretty good weather over most of the UK.

 

The GEFS pushed the trough a tad further east bringing the LP more into play and more unsettled weather over the UK.

Charts weatherbell

 

[summer blizzard]

Glorious output from the GFS and Euro models.

 

[Captain Shortwave]

The GFS 06z continuing on with the potential trend for a proper warm up during the middle of next week.

 

We can dream can't we, 23C possible next Wednesday and Thursday on this run, the same charts come summer would be in plume territory.

In the reliable, it looks like Friday will be the warmest day of the week with temperatures reaching between 18 and 20C, though for many it will be dry with good sunny spells and it will feel pleasantly warm in the sun.

Edited April 7, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Nick F]

My latest blog looks at the 2nd week of the school Easter Break continuing to enjoy mostly warm and sunny conditons, slightly lower temps today and tomorrow but rising again Thursday as a southerly flow develops . Turning colder and more unsettled over the weekend behind weakening cold front moving east on Saturday, 00z ECMWF pulls in a depression with wet and windy conditions on Sunday too, but high pressure back next week and temps back into the 20s?

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6566;sess=

Edited April 7, 2015 by Nick F