Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows a good deal of warm settled weather, very nice.

Edited April 11, 2015 by Frosty.

[damianslaw]

Both ECM and UKMO show a continuation of the settled pattern of April for the south for the foreseeable, the north however, is under a more topsy turvy pattern with atlantic fronts bringing unsettled weather tomorrow and on Wednesday.

 

High pressure looks like returning for the whole country by Thursday lasting through into the weekend, but it will bring a lowering of temps with the return of chilly nights and daytime maxima much lower than the dizzy low 20's which look possible in the south on Tuesday.

 

Longer term - no obvious signs of anything particularly unsettled but a cooling trend is being shown with high pressure moving west ushering in a NW flow. GFS playing around with lots of options from a N/NW flow and a NE flow.

 

April is often the driest month of the year, this one could turn out to be notably dry in the south, but a wet latter third could easily put pay to that and we have a lot of the month still to go..

 

In the near term - preety wintry here, there was snow down to 450 metres on the fells this morning, and tomorrow will see more snow quite probably down to lower levels than that for a time with supressed temps.. and an air frost to follow.

[knocker]

I see the GFS is back n the frame for some seriously warm weather Tues and Weds

Chart weatherbell

 

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS once again shows a cool Northerly flow towards week 2 this morning, With strong hight's over the Arctic spreading the Vortex.

 

 

Yes Knock, Maybe 21/22c for the far S/E on Tuesday.

 

Edited April 12, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[knocker]

And the GFS toying with a REX block

Chart weatherbell

 

[johnholmes]

The anomaly charts do seem to be suggesting for the 6-15 day time scale, being on the cool side and at times rather unsettled. Prior to that then pleasant enough after the small low for today with rain around it as it tracks ENE from SW Ireland. Some snow at higher levels too I would imagine.

 

and of course some very strong winds on its southern flank. Both the rain and gales should pass through quite quickly though.

Edited April 12, 2015 by johnholmes

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 00z mean shows a good deal of warm and largely settled weather, becoming very warm for a time during the week ahead with lots of strong sunshine, especially for the south of the UK.

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

morning just had a  look at the fantasy world charts  they suggesting possible  snow at the end  of   April  ,  !!!!  i  wish 

Edited April 12, 2015 by tinybill

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SUNDAY APRIL 12TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A wave depression will move East across Central Britain today clearing away tonight as a milder SW flow establishes tomorrow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and settled weather across the UK. A little rain is likely at times especially later in week 2 when colder air from the North might arrive.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream forecast shows the flow blowing NE across Central Britain currently. It then weakens over the UK and realigns well to the NW later this week and increase over Iceland. through the second week it weakens again for a time before changinging orientation to a NW to SE direction across the UK towards the end of the two week period.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows High pressure maintained to the SE of the Uk through the first half of this week with some warm sunshine and dry conditions developing for many. A weak cold front moves into the High pressure later in the week with the risk of a few showers before High pressure reforms across the UK with dry and settled conditions next weekend before it retreats out into the Atlantic opening the door to the North and NW to the risk cold Arctic winds to blow down over the UK with rain or showers at times wintry on hills especially in the North and East. 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run differs only in as much as High pressure doesn't retreat as much West in Week 2 protecting the UK from any colder and changeable conditions from the North and giving rise to plenty more fine and at times reasonably warm weather under High pressure with any encroachment from Atlantic fronts only shown by the very end  day of the run.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters show a predominant risk that Low pressure will lie close to the North of the UK in two weeks time with resultant cloud and rain at times for the UK with temperatures near average in the predominantly Westerly flow.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO shows High pressure to the SE until Thursday bringing increasingly warm SW wnds across the UK before a weak trough moving across from the West by Thursday brings the risk of some showers for a time before High pressure reasserts itself across the UK by next weekend with dry and fine weather for all then with sunny spells.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts reflect the raw data of UKMO well with the warm SW winds close to High pressure this week but with a lot of cloud at times towards the North and West from weak troughs. The showery disturbance on Thursday is then replaced by High pressure building over the top of the UK by next weekend.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today is similar to the GFS operational in that this week follows popular consensus of mild and dry weather with just a few showers later as High pressure at first to the SE and later over the UK commands control. Then through the beginning of next week this recedes West into the Atlantic with a dual attack from both the South and North of Low pressure threatening cold and showery weather next week with snow showers over the hills.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows High pressure to the SE brnging fine and warm conditions at times this week but on this run High pressure is maintained near or close to the UK at the end of the run maintaining largely fine and dry weather though it's centre to the North at times could make the South a little fresher in an Easterly wind component perhaps with the odd shower.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM today is showing High pressure domination reigning across the UK over the 10 days as a whole with the positioning changing from a point to the SE to be over the UK next weekend spliced by a showery disturbance across Southern Britain on Thursday. Towards the very end frames of the run although the benign and reasonably warm conditions over the UK look like continuing there is rumblings to the NW of the cold and showery NW or North flow that other output shows might be waiting in the wings just outside of the outputs range

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows High pressure to the SW and varying degrees of a NW flow across the UK some with a showery theme as far as the UK is concerned but also quite a few with High pressure still maintaining a largely dry theme with the warmest conditions to the South and West.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends this morning continue to show the risk of a cold NW flow in Week 2 but it remains an uncertain aspect with  some support for continuing High pressure domination as well.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.6 pts followed by UKM at 97.0 pts and GFS at 96.3. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 90.7 pts over UKMO at 89.0 pts and GFS at 87.2. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 65.2 pts over GFS's 60.2 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 46.8 pts over GFS at 41.4. 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS The models continue to focus on the development of a High pressure pattern across the UK over the coming week. Not all is straightforward though with a small and inclement area of Low pressure crossing Central districts today bringing a mix of gales, rain and hill snow for a few with cold Winter air still over Scotland with a milder SW flow over the South. This feed moves North tonight and tomorrow with all areas settling into several days of mild SW winds with some warm sunshine across Southern Britain in particular. then another small disturbance is shown by most output to increase the risk of showers by Thursday but still with some warm sunshine in between. Then over next weekend as High pressure strengthens, this time across the UK any showers will evaporate to leave all areas dry, bright and sunny and reasonably warm again especially in the South and away from windward coasts. Through next week the models go one of two ways with some support that the High will retreat out into the Atlantic or worse still to the NW with a cold late season plunge of cold air down across the UK with wintry showers and unrequired frosts by night. there is though reasonable support for the High to remain close to the UK cutting off any cold injection and maintaining fine and dry weather with Spring sunshine by day but not excluding slight grass frosts overnight under the clear skies and light winds. All in all with the exception of today in Central Britain benign is the word I would use to describe conditions across the UK for the coming few weeks with plenty of dry and bright weather with some warm sunshine and temperatures especially in the South with only a risk of a few showers for a time later this week and again later in Week 2 when something rather colder could arrive from the North and NW with showers more widespread and wintry on hills and frost at night. However, that is a long way off and far from a certainty so lets enjoy what is fast becoming for many quite a dry and pleasant Spring April month this year or will be if most of this morning's charts verify. 

 

Next update from 08:00 Monday April 13th 2015

[bluearmy]

Our friend gavin partridge did a video and used the jma and cfs v2 models and both were in agreement that the second half of April coming into may would be cooler and more unsettled, to what extent we don't know about.

 

it does seem that the final third of april will see a much cooler regime take hold. however, recent experience says this could end up shunted a bit further east than currently modelled. lets hope its far enough to maintain our decent spring.

[Captain Shortwave]

The long range models are certainly suggesting a cooler and more unsettled pattern taking over, that said none of them seemed to spot that by mid April that we would be running at around 2C above the seasonal average given some very warm days ahead.

The ECM operational really doesn't look to be straying far away from the settled regime we have been used to recently, in fact week 2 begins to see a warm up as we lose the chilly breeze off the north sea.

 

Overall Tuesday and Wednesday look warm or very warm in the south, but fronts will affect northern areas, this will push erratically south, but how quickly this will progress remains to be decided, I wouldn't be surprised if southern areas get another warm day (Thursday). Beyond that conditions look reasonable settled but cooler, especially in the east due to the orientation of the high.

Low cloud could also be an issue for eastern areas from Thursday onwards.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO showing the high firmly in place by the end of the coming week with plenty of dry weather around and pleasantly warm in any sunshine

 

Edited April 12, 2015 by Summer Sun

[mushymanrob]

hmmmm .... looking like week 3 of april might turn rather '1975 - ish' , with a long draw of cold northerlies IF next weekends expected high retrogresses as some current runs suggest, plus the noaa anomaly charts support 'unfavourable' blocking.

enjoy the next few days, its looking pretty warm before cooling off a bit after midweek, but will it cool off further?...

[knocker]

Looking at the ext GEFS and ECM anomalies for the last week does show high latitude blocking with general trough areas to the NW and Scandinavia. Not good.

[Frosty.]

There is lots of high pressure dominating the UK on the Ecm 00z ensemble mean and during the week ahead it's going to turn very warm for a while, especially midweek and there will be plenty of strong sunshine, looking further ahead, high pressure drifts west into the Atlantic but still extends a ridge over the UK with largely fine and pleasant conditions during the next ten days.

[damianslaw]

Reliable timeframe - generally pleasant away from the NW and in the south warm early on. A mostly dry outlook through the next 7 days away from the NW.

 

The models however, continue to show a significant change after next weekend with heights retrogressing westwards and a cold attack from the NW. At this range far too early to call how things may pan out, much will depend on where heights settle, but if they do move far enough westwards there is a lot of very cold air bottled up to the NW combined with cold atlantic SST's meaning a much colder outlook could surface - shock to the system.

 

In the meantime plenty of very respectable weather for the time of year to enjoy... I just wish the type of synoptics we have seen last 2 weeks and for the foreseeable have a higher chance of verifying in summer than Spring.

[Frosty.]

High pressure dominates the UK on the Gfs 6z, it's not until the end of low res when low pressure takes over. Looking at the week ahead, bbc weather say parts of the south could reach 25c during midweek, it's already fine and pleasantly warm in the south today, and the first half of the week looks glorious with temperatures soaring into the mid to high 70's F..FANTASTIC

[Summer Sun]

BBC saying temperatures could hit 25c 77F in the SE on Wednesday GFS giving highs of 22c so 25c does seem realisitic though as ever its going to depend on cloud amounts

 

 

An early taste of summer for the SE mid week potentially

Edited April 12, 2015 by Summer Sun

[DAVID SNOW]

Make the most of next weeks warm weather(if that's what you prefer) because the models are now pointing to a drastic cool down thereafter..

[summer blizzard]

Fantastic output from the models. All models now prolong high pressure until at least day 8 (next Monday). After that, GEM has a direct northerly, GFS brushes us with it and the Euro sticks the finger up. I'd not be suprised to see a sudden turnaround but it's worth noting how mid-week's breakdown was watered down and so may this one.

 

 

At any rate, those who don't get rainfall mid-week will need to watch the plants.

[Polar Maritime]

Yes it's certainly looking like the last 1/4 of April will be on the unsettled side, With some sort of cool Northerly flow. The GFS does not want to drop this idea. The CFS is also showing an unsettled Northerly flow, With systems circulating the UK. 

 

Edited April 12, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[damianslaw]

High pressure dominates the UK on the Gfs 6z, it's not until the end of low res when low pressure takes over. Looking at the week ahead, bbc weather say parts of the south could reach 25c during midweek, it's already fine and pleasantly warm in the south today, and the first half of the week looks glorious with temperatures soaring into the mid to high 70's F..FANTASTIC

 

 

I like your optimism, and well founded for the SE with some early summer warmth projected for mid week. However, the first half of the week looks glorious with temps soaring into mid to high 70's isn't true for the NW quarter of the country, far from it, temps perhaps nudging mid teens at very best.

[Frosty.]

high 70's isn't true for the NW quarter of the country, far from it, temps perhaps nudging mid teens at very best.

Very true, apologies for not mentioning the NW

Edited April 12, 2015 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z has some really nice anticyclonic weather, lovely charts with long sunny spells but chilly nights with a risk of frost and patchy fog, the south and southeast of the uk is going to be very warm midweek and although temperatures then drop back to where they should be, it will feel very pleasant in the strengthening sunshine, actually, most of the UK, even the NW has plenty of good weather at times on this run...great charts next weekend and early week 2 practically nationwide.

Edited April 12, 2015 by Frosty.

[Eugene]

Yes it's certainly looking like the last 1/4 of April will be on the unsettled side, With some sort of cool Northerly flow. The GFS does not want to drop this idea. The CFS is also showing an unsettled Northerly flow, With systems circulating the UK. 

 

 

 

Eventually those charts will come off but not for a long time, Frosty is on a roll.