Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z is a stonker of a run for warmth and sunshine, following the mini cooler unsettled blip on saturday, the recovery starts on Sunday with high pressure building from the south, next week would become even warmer than this week and sunny with temperatures close to mid 70's F which would be fantastic for mid April. as I mentioned above, this run has stunning potential for another surge of warmth from the south with increasing humidity too and the chance of thundery showers later. In the meantime, the current fine spell is turning out better than expected with less cloud and a lot more sunshine, this continues with temps into the low 70's F on thurs / Fri..really exciting times for those of us dreaming of an early taste of summer.

Edited April 7, 2015 by Frosty.

[summer blizzard]

Another glorious run for the next week.

 

[Summer Sun]

Looking at UKMO we have an unsettled weekend coming up with winds freshening and some showers around but also some sunshine and highs likely in the mid teens rather than high teens or low 20's. By Sunday pressure starts to rise from the south so showers may become less frequent here as the day goes on

 

 

Into next week and pressure continues to rise further north with any rain or showers becoming confined to the far north

 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z shows some warm, locally very warm dry and sunny weather next week for the south and east with the north and west looking much cooler and more unsettled, we all see rain on this run, some of it heavy and thundery at times but the south and east has a good deal of fine and warm weather too being to the southeast of the polar front jet for most of the time.

Edited April 7, 2015 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

ECM is following the others with an unsettled weekend with a mix of sunshine and showers and a fresher feel

 

 

Then high pressure rebuilds early next week settling things down once more

 

Edited April 7, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Winter Cold]

A big shock to the system this weekend and into next Monday after the warmth of this week. A reminder its still April. Coats will be back out in the wind, rain and cooler temperatures:

 

   

 

   

 

 

Presure is still shown to rise again into next week, but much more of a westerly element and temps around mid-teens, rather than the high teens to low twenties of this week.

 

GFS still leading us up the garden path with the strength of the high and temps next week. You only need to look at the GEFS for todays 0z, 6z, and 12z runs to show it massively above the mean with pressure to start with and slowly correcting down to lower pressure throughout the day. Temps around mean values of 15c for London, although the runs still pushing their luck at the top end. Cooler than that the more NW you go.

Edited April 7, 2015 by Winter Cold

[Captain Shortwave]

A big shock to the system this weekend and into next Monday after the warmth of this week. A reminder its still April. Coats will be back out in the wind, rain and cooler temperatures:

 

   

 

   

 

 

Presure is still shown to rise again into next week, but much more of a westerly element and temps around mid-teens, rather than the high teens to low twenties of this week.

 

GFS still leading us up the garden path with the strength of the high and temps next week. You only need to look at the GEFS for todays 0z, 6z, and 12z runs to show it massively above the mean with pressure to start with and slowly correcting down to lower pressure throughout the day. Temps around mean values of 15c for London, although the runs still pushing their luck at the top end. Cooler than that the more NW you go.

Oddly the ECM and ECM ens seem more keen on building pressure next week, more so than the GFS which has only really suggested a push of warm air northwards creating rather humid conditions with rain still hanging around in places, which still seems to be the case. The ECM again tonight builds pressure over the UK with mild to warm conditions with good sunny spells.

The GEM holds the middle ground with high pressure centring over the south of the UK/northern France

Uncertainty upstream but a agreement on a ridge developing over Europe in some degree with troughing still present to our west. This would suggest that the milder than average conditions will continue next week after a brief cooler and more unsettled blip which has unfortunately timed itself for the coming weekend.

[Frosty.]

Really nice Ecm 12z this evening with high pressure dominant again next week and a good deal of dry, sunny and warm weather returning after the blink or miss it cooler unsettled blip. And for the rest of this working week it's dry, sunny and increasingly warm, becoming very warm on Thursday and Friday as we import warmer air from southern Europe, this is looking really good for the time of year.

[DAVID SNOW]

Looking at the ECM for next week regarding temperatures; looks around average to me?

[Frosty.]

Looking at the ECM for next week regarding temperatures; looks around average to me?

No it looks average at the start of next week but then turns warmer through the rest of next week, as well as being fine with lots of sunshine, much more settled than the Gfs 12z, even the north and west enjoys fine warm weather on the Ecm 12z.

[DAVID SNOW]

No it looks average at the start of next week but then turns warmer through the rest of next week, as well as being fine with lots of sunshine, much more settled than the Gfs 12z, even the north and west enjoys fine warm weather on the Ecm 12z.

 

When I said" around average" for the week (ECM) I am thinking about night and day temps, and the week as a whole  Hope that helps.

[ANYWEATHER]

Its the age old battle with models trying to break down from the Atlantic with a mid latitude high pressure system. Yes there is a breakdown by the end of the week but for how long and where do we go on from there???  Who knows ? The fine conditions  cant last forever

 

 

 

[Frosty.]

When I said" around average" for the week (ECM) I am thinking about night and day temps, and the week as a whole  Hope that helps.

Thanks for clearing that up, I thought you meant daytime temps..which would become progressively warmer next week. Aside from the mini cool blip this coming weekend, this looks as good as it gets for early to mid April, quite exceptional IMO.

[summer blizzard]

Fantastic Euro. SE component with high pressure is the sunniest setup here..

 

[Norrance]

Fantastic Euro. SE component with high pressure is the sunniest setup here..

 

That is a recipe for haar here so no ta. Make it a SW component please.

[DAVID SNOW]

Thanks for clearing that up, I thought you meant daytime temps..which would become progressively warmer next week. Aside from the mini cool blip this coming weekend, this looks as good as it gets for early to mid April, quite exceptional IMO.

 

That's ok, its an easy mistake to make.

[Milhouse]

The current warm spell will reach a peak on Friday where the high teens will be reached quite widely. Then the GFS 12z has Saturday as the one cooler day with temperatures back down to between 8-13c. Sunday sees a rise in temperatures and by the start of the new week they are back up to current values again. Lots of warm and pleasant conditions to look forward to.

 

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS this morning shows cooler more unsettled air from the W/N/W over the UK by Saturday, With a mix of Tm/Pm air next week bringing unsettled weather the further North you are, Towards the end of the run shows a cool continental feed.  

 

[knocker]

I admit I haven't been following this that closely but I notice on yesterdays ecm 12z run there was a fair difference between the ops and the parallel.

[Captain Shortwave]

For those wanting an early taste of summer, then the ECM is really up your street.

A southerly flow developing into week 2. temperatures should get into the low 20s in some parts of the UK on this run. The ECM does seem to be the most bullish about building high pressure in next week again though.

UKMO

Flatter so maybe more in the way of cloud for western areas with fronts affecting the north.

 

GFS

A flatter and weaker high that gives way after a couple of days.

 

GEM

Better than the GFS but still gives way quite quickly.

 

All still give some impressive temperatures for the time of year during the middle of next week though. The ECM is the best of the bunch with even day 10 showing a southerly flow continuing for the foreseeable.

Edited April 8, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY APRIL 8TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure continues to be centred across the UK drifting slowly East with light winds for all both today and tomorrow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming more changeable over the North with rain at times next week while the South and East stays largely dry and bright and possibly quite warm at times.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream forecast shows the flow well to the Northwest  of the UK tracking NE between Scotland and Iceland. It sinks slowly South travelling NE across England at Wales at the weekend before drifting back slowly North early next week. Towards the end of the run this pattern becomes much more complex and eventually disjointed as pressure rises to the north of the UK too.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows High pressure over the UK moving slowly East and SE across Europe in the coming days with a light Southerly flow developing. A cold front moves East over the weekend with a little rain for all and an introduction to cooler conditions and a North/South split in conditions thereafter. The North will see SW winds and rain at times while High pressure maintained to the South and SE of Britain will return fine and dry conditions here before High pressure builds to the North and eventually NE of the UK later with Low pressure to the South sucking a cold and raw Easterly flow with some rain or wintry showers across the South of the UK in this run for two weeks from now.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is very different in Week 2 although the sequence of events in Week 1 is very smilar to the operational. the differences lie in High pressure not showing such a build of pressure to the North of the UK and maintaining the heights to the SE of the UK. This has a very different complexion on the weather than that shown by the operational run with the South and East often fairly warm and dry with some sunshine and just occasional rain while the North and West maintain more cloud and more frequent outbreaks of rain or showers in average temperatures.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters show variations on a theme of High pressure across the Atlantic with a NW flow down across the UK looking quite likely in two weeks time. The clusters disagree on the proximity of the High to the West with a bias towards it being far enough to the West to allow some unsettled and chilly NW winds being very possible with some rain or showers across the UK.  

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO shows a Westerly flow with a few fronts crossing East early in the weekend followed by a rise of pressure across the South returning fine and dry weather here though cooler than currently. In the North the weather becomes breezy with some rain next week under a stronger Westerly flow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts put the meat on the bones of how the incoming troughs from the West early in the weekend and again early next week displace the current fine and warm Spring weather with something cooler and more seasonal with some wind and rain at times across the North and West early next week.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today shows High pressure slowly receding away East and South through the weekend and start to next week with colder and more changeable conditions likely to affect the North through next week and eventually to the far South too late in the run as a small but significant Low hugs the SE coast at 10 days on this run with resultant chilly and unsettled conditions likely in a cold NE flow ahead of High pressure slipping East into the UK from the West.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a much more unsettled and windier pattern next week as the weekends trough and subsequent ridge open the door to stronger Westerly winds across all areas next week with rain at times for all from Eastward moving troughs, the rain always heaviest and most persistent across the North and West.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM today is much kinder synoptically next week with High pressure remaining well in control over or just to the East and SE of the UK next week. This would result in the weekends rain on the cold front being very brief before fine weather returns for many. Next week would then likely bring fine and rather warm conditions across the South with any rainfall restricted to the far NW with a slack pressure gradient likely at the end of the run still keeping the UK in a rather warm SW drift across the UK.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart on the face of it shows a slack Westerly flow across the UK but this is made up of various options ranging from High pressure close to the South and resultant fine weather to something rather more changeable under Low pressure to the North where rain at times is most likely.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends shown within the models this morning is quite weak with a mixture of fine and dry options under High pressure to the South mixed with several evolutions of cooler and unsettled weather with a few cold scenarios too from GFS and GEM. 

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.6 pts followed by UKM at 97.2 pts and GFS at 96.4. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 90.9 pts over UKMO at 89.7 pts and GFS at 87.6. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 66.5 pts over GFS's 62.6 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 47.5 pts over GFS at 43.6. 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

MY THOUGHTS The current fine weather with high temperatures will come to an end at the start of the weekend as all models indicate a cold front pushing East across the UK bringing a little rain but a more significant drop in temperatures by some 5-7deg C. The weekend will be fine for the South once the rain clears whereas the North may stay somewhat more changeable from that point on and it's at that relatively early point in the output that differences between the outputs become apparent. There are a variety of options on the table for next week and beyond ranging from a strong Westerly with rain at times for all and fine weather under High pressure bringing a return to the conditions we have currently at least for Southern Britain later next week with even a few wintry scenarios spelled out, notably from the GFS operational in two weeks time and less dramatically by GEM in 10 days. Which scenario is correct is hard to call at the moment but my own feelings are that something along the lines of ECM or the GFS Control run may well be closer to the mark which will maintain a lot of dry and fine weather towards the South and East of the UK with some quite warm conditions at times whereas the North will see troughs flirting by at times delivering some rain at times in a stronger breeze. So all things considered I think that despite a few unsettled and unsavoury model runs this morning we will probably end up with quite respectable conditions in the South for a few weeks with some light rain on occasion and temperatures on the high side of average whereas the North finds fine and dry conditions much shorter lived and less reliable with temperatures more suppressed here to average.    

 

Issued at 08:00 Wednesday April 8th 2015

[Summer Sun]

Looking at UKMO and ECM they both show the high building in quite strongly again from Monday if it does it will be a 2 day blip of unsettled weather

 

UKMO shows the south especially becoming fine and dry again with any rain in the far north

 

 

ECM is a warm run especially but not exclusively in the south with any rain restricted to the far north west

 

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows high pressure building in across southern Britain next week with warm and sunny conditions returning. In the meantime, the rest of this working week will be dry, warm and sunny, nothing worse than some fair weather clouds developing across central and eastern England during the afternoons and becoming very warm with low 20's celsius on Thursday and Friday, perhaps 22c in places. The weekend looks cooler and windier with Atlantic air coming in behind a cold front but there will still be some sunshine, especially on Saturday with most of the showers to the northwest but perhaps more general rain for a time on Sunday but from next Monday another fine and increasingly warm spell is on the way, at least for the southern half of the UK, for the most part, this is as good as it gets at this time of year...enjoy.

[knocker]

A quick look at the 500mb mean anomalies for the middle of next week.

 

They both have a ridge to the SE of the UK with the ECM nudging it a tad further north. And both have a trough Iceland area running south

 

This leaves the surface analysis on a bit of a knife edge because it rather depends on the exact location of the HP and thus the LP to the north west. So although they both have the HP to the SE they differ about it's influence with the ECM pushing it further NW than the GEFS. Still likely to be quite warm but less so if westerly Pm air takes precedence.

 

It should be noted that as the week progresses the HP continues to slide SE leaving a rather slack zonality with perhaps further ridging from the Azores.

 

I wouldn't put money on the outcome at this stage.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z shows high pressure returning to the south of the uk next week with increasing warmth and sunshine after the briefest of cooler unsettled blips with temps nearer 13/14c for a day or so but then rising into the low 70's F before turning unsettled later in the week with heavy rain but high pressure then returns once again.

Edited April 8, 2015 by Frosty.