Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->

[knocker]

Yesterdays EC32 update.

 

Day ten has the Azores ridge over the UK with troughs Russia and south from Greenland. Temps around average.

 

Day seventeen the upper trough now over the UK with a broad area of LP east to Russia, Period of unsettled weather with temps below average.

 

Day twenty four a fairly nondesript zonal flow with temps around average.

 

Day thirty two has more emphasis on Azores ridging that was perhaps hinted at the previous week.

 

Summary

Looking like some quite unsettled weather around week 2-3 thereafter perhaps more influence from the Azores and temps much around average.

[Winter Cold]

Very quiet on here this evening!

 

Looks like its UKMO on its own with todays 12zs as the GFS and ECM show high pressure in control all next week, wheres UKMO introduces more of a shower risk. T144 for example below:

 

     

 

It looks warm again for England, still peaking on Tuesday and Wednesday on GFS, with ECM showing +12 uppers still for Thursday for example:

 

 

GFS predicted temps still into the low 20s:

 

 

 

 

A cool-off is then shown but any unsettled weather isnt until well into FI so not likely to be correct:

 

Edited April 10, 2015 by Winter Cold

[summer blizzard]

Tonight's GFS makes little to nothing of the cut-off low this week and essentially extends high pressure to day 8 as does the Euro.

 

[bluearmy]

The odds on a more amplified pattern bringing a cool to cold trough close to the uk shortening through week 2 on the current x model trend.

[Man With Beard]

 

I can see 25C being reached in central areas if this comes off - maybe a degree or two more if things work out perfectly. Not bad for mid-April at all. Funny how things can suddenly turn around in early Spring from wintery to summery weather.

 

A great way to reach 1000 posts!

Edited April 10, 2015 by rjbw

[ANYWEATHER]

Can we really trust the model output for next week?   I think not!  A very big headache in the forecasting industry next week. I just hope the forecasters don't get paid by results....      A snap shot of both ecm and gfs at the T+144 range!

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z is amazing next week, becoming very warm indeed, I can even say it would be hot by mid April standards with 25/26c close to 80F next wed/thurs and the very warm air spreads north to Scotland. The most summery charts imaginable for mid April.

[ANYWEATHER]

Tonight's Ecm 12z is amazing next week, becoming very warm indeed, I can even say it would be hot by mid April standards with 25/26c close to 80F next wed/thurs and the very warm air spreads north to Scotland. The most summery charts imaginable for mid April.

It wont happen......    

[Frosty.]

It wont happen......

Why not? It's only T+120 range, even the met office update mentioned very warm weather around the middle of next week, they are sensational charts and it would be great to see.

Edited April 10, 2015 by Frosty.

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM ens

 

Looks like the Euro ridge could persist until the end of next week, this means temperatures could remain well above average until next weekend. Of course we need other models to back this scenario, the GEM pushes a cold front through on Wednesday still. Cracking ECM op btw.

[knocker]

To my untutored eye I would suggest it's a bit premature in trying to pin down max temps for Weds/Thurs.

 

There is not agreement between the GEFS and ECM anomaly because they haven't pinned down the evolution, or not, of the LP to the SW. Pretty crucial for very warm  temps as they will require a long southerly fetch. At the moment this looks doubtful although certainly above average temps may be on the cards. Maybe low 20s but really rather pointless atm.

[knocker]

And the reason why it's very dodgy forecasting max temps six days down the line is highlighted with this mornings GFS.

 

Weds gives max temps of 20C in the SE and Thursday lucky if it gets to 14C along the south coast.due to a small change in the surface analysis.

 

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Chart weatherbell

 

[Captain Shortwave]

And the reason why it's very dodgy forecasting max temps six days down the line is highlighted with this mornings GFS.

 

Weds gives max temps of 20C in the SE and Thursday lucky if it gets to 14C along the south coast.due to a small change in the surface analysis.

 

This post will self-destruct after it's been read

Chart weatherbell

The trend of 2015 for mediocrity to prevail even at short range notice continues. The ECM has backed off its warm idea also this morning, most moving to the more progressive UKMO solution and hence the presence of the Euro ridge is reduced inhibiting the push northwards of warm air from the continent. So high teens most likely now, though 20/21C could be scraped out on Tuesday/Wednesday if we are lucky. It could still change though given the circumstance, but the trend is rather disappointing. That said the outlook looks mainly settled bar this weekends rain and maybe a little here and there from fronts getting trapped over the UK potentially.

Edited April 11, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[knocker]

This doesn't look too clever. High latitude blocking

Chart weatherbell

 

[Polar Maritime]

Yes GFS seems to be sticking with a cool/unsettled N/N/E flow into week 2. 

 

Edited April 11, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Eugene]

After this morning looking nice and sunny in the south, turning very warm by tuesday, as ever any cool and unsettled weather is pushed back.

 

Next weekend could be warm and humid with a warm SE'ly flow.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Very pleasant outlook this morning, Charts showing a more mobile pattern way out in FI. 

 

Next week looks GLORIOUS!! 

Edited April 11, 2015 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 0z shows a risk of T-Storms spreading up from the hotter near continent across parts of the south next midweek which is also the warmest and most humid part of next week across southern uk with temperatures around 20-22c which is very warm for the time of year, high pressure then returns before next weekend but temperatures return closer to average but still pleasantly warm in the strong sunshine.

Edited April 11, 2015 by Frosty.

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM ens pretty much disagree with all the output this morning, suggesting fine and warm conditions until next weekend.

The question is are the ens being slow to reaction, or are they right as it shows little difference to last nights suite which was very good for a very warm week ahead.

Suggestions of a flow north of west developing during week 2, though pressure remains fairly high.

Edited April 11, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z is warmer than the 0z next week and the risk of T-Storms later next week is also higher and lasts longer, this would be an even better spell than the one just ended, especially for storm enthusiasts.

[Milhouse]

I looks like we are set for another 3 days of pleasant warmth from Monday to Wednesday next week although as low pressure approaches on Wednesday we will see a greater chance of showers or longer spells of rain breaking out. Temperatures higher than what we saw this week just gone although the warm spell looks not as long lasting.

 

[Milhouse]

Next week is looking quite decent so far on the GFS 12z. The warmth of Monday and Tuesday gets squeezed from the north as a cold front pushes southwards. Wednesday is definitely a day of two halves with the southeast still fine and very warm for the time of year, but further north its much cooler and unsettled. High pressure then builds back in from the west for Thursday and Friday with light winds and temperatures in the region 10-16c with cool nights.

 

[Milhouse]

UKMO quite similar to the GFS. Wednesday is the transition day to something briefly cooler but high pressure is back in charge by Friday, and by the looks of it would stick around into the weekend too.

 

[Summer Sun]

Lots of high pressure around on this run from GFS whilst conditions would vary over the time it would be a very dry April for a lot of us

 

 

 

[summer blizzard]

Euro tonight keeps pressure high but mainly west of the UK for week 2.

 

GFS tonight is utterly stunning. High pressure remains right through to the end of the run be it high or low resolution..