Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->

[summer blizzard]

Does the Euro have CAPE charts. That day 9 chart is not far off a Spanish Plume.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO more settled than GFS this afternoon at day 6

 

UKMO has the high over virtually all the UK with any rain restricted to the far north

 

 

GFS has the high in the far south with all of the UK under a westerly so a mix of sunshine and showers

 

Edited April 8, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

The ukmo 12z would deliver a repeat of this weeks glorious weather, the Gfs 12z still brings a brief return to the current warmth around the middle of next week and there is more high pressure through low res but it's the ukmo I want to see verify as it would bring a longer warm and settled spell.

Edited April 8, 2015 by Frosty.

[draztik]

UKMO more settled than GFS this afternoon at day 6

 

UKMO has the high over virtually all the UK with any rain restricted to the far north

 

 

GFS has the high in the far south with all of the UK under a westerly so a mix of sunshine and showers

 

GEFS at 144 shows an even progressive decline in overall pressure/conditions at same timescale. Can't help but think the UKMO is overdoing it a bit or should that be a lot.

[Frosty.]

GEFS at 144 shows an even progressive decline in overall pressure/conditions at same timescale. Can't help but think the UKMO is overdoing it a bit or should that be a lot.

You could also say the Gfs / Gefs is overdoing the Atlantic strength, it has been known. Hopefully the ecm will follow the ukmo trend this evening.

[Captain Shortwave]

GEFS at 144 shows an even progressive decline in overall pressure/conditions at same timescale. Can't help but think the UKMO is overdoing it a bit or should that be a lot.

It wouldn't be the first time that the GFS has flopped at a real settled spell developing. Probably the worst thing about the GFS is its ability to cry wolf but miss the real pressure build.

GEM looks okay

Though cloud could be an issue in western areas and possibly some rain for the north.

 

We will have to see what the ECM produces, though it has been the most bullish over the last couple of suites, more so than the UKMO.

[Captain Shortwave]

And the ECM backs the UKMO

trough digging south to the west of the UK, it should be a warm and fairly settled second half of the run.

Edited April 8, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

GEFS at 144 shows an even progressive decline in overall pressure/conditions at same timescale. Can't help but think the UKMO is overdoing it a bit or should that be a lot.

 

ECM backing UKMO at t144

 

 

ECM and UKMO v GFS at day 6

[shaky]

ecm backs the ukmo big time!!!infact pressure looks higher and better than the ukmo!!gfs may backtrack by 00z tomorrow!!!cant believe the brilliant weather we have had recently!!!

[Winter Cold]

Evening all

 

A good day of model watching today. The GFS has given up on high pressure next week as I thought it might, only for the ECM and UKMO to pick up the idea!! Just typical ey!

 

Pressure shown to rise on Monday, which at T120 on both ECM and UKMO is usualy a strong combo to have and not one often wrong. Next week could be an almost replica of this one, strangely very similar.

 

I wasnt so sure of the pressure rise for next week, as the GFS does play with us a lot in that regard, but maybe this time it will be proven right. I dont mind admitting when im wrong

 

Last few frames on ECM are nice, thundery showers and storms pushing in from the south west??

Edited April 8, 2015 by Winter Cold

[Frosty.]

Fantastic Ecm 12z tonight with next week looking at least as glorious as this week with temperatures again heading for 70 F +..and the current warm/settled weather lasts until the end of Friday with lots more strong sunshine to come, it's great to see the euros both showing a summery outlook.

[damianslaw]

Not been looking at the models much recently, partly because only slow changes have been most probable. After a shortlived unsettled blip this weekend more so in the north, both ECM and UKMO show settled conditions again for early next week as we see heights lurking to the SW quickly building back over the country to produce plenty of dry very settled weather. GFS not so keen.

 

The most notable aspect is the signal for an amplified flow to develop and heights this time round look like ridging north which could mean a much different pattern sets in during the second half of the month - something many models were suggesting with the monthly outlooks. High pressure has a tendency to retrogress northwards as we enter the second half of Spring. Lets see. In the meantime its turning into a very decent first half to April, many southern parts could be looking at a very dry very mild first half. Not unusual for the most settled weather of the year to occur in springtime, indeed now is on average the driest period of the year- so nothing surprising about the synoptics at the moment.

[ANYWEATHER]

Changes for a Traditional April are well underway, models are really struggling and nothing should be taken as gospel after T+96 hrs ,,,,,,

[summer blizzard]

Stunning Euro tonight..

 

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM ens look pretty solid for next week

The ridge persists around or just east of the UK

 

So a general southerly component to the wind direction will persist during next week, so it will tend to be milder than average, even warm at times.

[Winter Cold]

Chalk and cheese tonight from the GEFS mean and ENS mean for next week from the 12zs. Heres next Wednesday as an example:

 

   

GFS has the 1010 line through North Yorkshire and the ECM has it well north of Scotland!

 

 

The GFS 18z rolling out now and its not making any move towards the euros tonight it seems.

[Summer Sun]

Not much change overnight from UKMO with high pressure on course to rebuild from Monday the one exception could be the far north west depending on how far north the high extends but for most of England and Wales it could become warm or very warm again for a time next week

 

UKMO

 

Edited April 9, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON THURSDAY APRIL 9TH 2015 

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure will move slowly away East as a light Southerly flow ahead of troughs over the East Atlantic develops across the UK tomorrow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Becoming more changeable over the North with rain at times next week while the South and East stays largely dry and bright and possibly quite warm at times.Possibly rather colder for all later with frost at night.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream forecast shows the flow well to the Northwest  of the UK tracking NE between Scotland and Iceland. It sinks slowly South travelling NE across England at Wales at the weekend before drifting back slowly North early next week. Towards the end of the run this pattern becomes much more complex and unclear as the pressure pattern around the UK and NW Europe at that time is undecided as yet.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows High pressure continuing to move away to the East and SE with a couple of frontal systems over the weekend affecting the UK with cooler weather with some rain. Then as the period continues a drier spell early next week especially across the South will be replaced by Low pressure moving up from the South bringing rain at times and maintaining cooler weather than currently. Towards the end of the run a vigorous Low develops near Scandinavia sending a cold and showery NW to North airflow down across the UK with wintry showers across the hills and in the North. 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run broadly follows the course of the operational in the short term with further rain towards the middle of next week following the colder and dry phase across the South after the weekend trough clearance. It looks like being very windy in the North early in the week with some rain before colder weather with showers move down over all areas late next week, these wintry in places. The rest of the run shows a lot of rather chilly weather with showers at times and a cold North wind as High pressure builds North across the Atlantic Ocean.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters show the message that the UK could well become more unsettled by two weeks from now and rather chilly too as most members show Low pressure in control just to the North of the UK with a NW flow delivering rain and showers at times. A reasonable 35% group show something slightly different with a trough just to the West with rain at times there and drier conditions to the East.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO shows High pressure recovering across the UK early next week as a new centre close to the South moves to the SE too as it's predecessor did and allowing warm continental air to waft North over the UK by midweek with rising temperatures again especially in the South.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts illustrate weakening troughs affecting parts of the UK across the weekend especially on Sunday when some rain and thick cloud can be expected for all for a time. As we move into next week pressure is shown to have rsen sufficiently across the troughs to weaken them and allow some bright and fine weather to return for the South of the UK at least.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today shows High pressure generally in control of the weather over the next 10 days but a few flys in the ointment at the weekend in the shape of troughs could bring some cloud and rain for a time and the positioning of the High pressure areas as shown would not provide the warm and settled weather currently being experienced but more likely bring colder breezes sourced from a Northerly direction with a lot of fine and bright weather by day but more unwanted night frosts.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a lowering of temperatures soon as fresher West winds develop across the UK especially over the North where further rain at times is likely at times next week. In the South dry weather will largely prevail with less warmth than recently and a chage for all to a cold and showery flow from the North looking very possible late next week as this run too shows the desire to rise pressure over the Atlantic sending cold air South across the UK.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM today is much like UKMO today moving forward to retreat High pressure away from the UK towards the North and NW late next week and the weekend with colder winds from the North and NE threatening the UK and contrasting conditions markedly from those we have at present. Before that happens most of next week will be fine and pleasant with respectable temperatures though a little rain could be introduced into the South for a time from troughs sliding East and SE from the Atlantic and ahead of the colder air filtering in from the NE.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart shows very flat conditions across the UK in 10 days made up of a variety of options though with a bias of High pressure not far from the UK and relatively pleasant conditions for many.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends this morning are beginning to show an increased risk of rather cold air moving down from the North after the next week with GFS, GEM and the ECM operational all hinting that cold North winds could be present by 10-14 days.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.6 pts followed by UKM at 97.1 pts and GFS at 96.4. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 90.6 pts over UKMO at 89.5 pts and GFS at 87.2. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 66.2 pts over GFS's 62.3 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 48.2 pts over GFS at 43.1. 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS The models continue to show the collapse of High pressure away to the SE tomorrow and the weekend allowing fresher air to cross the UK from the West with a little rain in places, this especially on Sunday. It's as yesterday the events that follow on next week which are yet to be fully determined by the models with something of a North/South split in the weather looking more or less likely with the South seeing some fine and potentially warm conditions for a time while the North looks less assured of this with stronger winds and occasional rain looking feasible from some output. Then comes the main theme this morning that the weather could turn rather cold from the North later next week and beyond as pressure is shown from many model runs to build at Northern or Western latitudes and longitudes sending chilly North or NE winds down across the UK as pressure builds over the Atlantic. This could provide the risk of some showers, wintry on hills and possibly more significantly frost at night which is something gardeners and growers do not want to here at this stage in Spring. This at the range shown is of course not a guarantee at the moment as positioning of High pressure then could develop more favourably in bringing the UK less cold conditons than some of the output shows this morning. The one constant from all models once more today is that there looks unlikely to be any particularly unpleasant conditions within the next few weeks anywhere across the UK with the theme of a much drier start to the year than last year maintained for many through the period.    

 

Issued at 08:00 Thursday April 9th 2015

[Summer Sun]

Big temperature differences on show next week with single figures for parts of Scotland, ROI and northern Ireland and high teens / low 20s for England and Wales

 

Max and minimum temps for Wednesday and Thursday @ 15.00

 

 

 

[Winter Cold]

Morning all

 

I wonder if we are going to see heights building north towards the end of next week and beyond. GFS has been showing this on and off for a while now and the ECM has decided to have a go at that too this morning;

 

GFS:

 

   

 

ECM:

 

   

 

All a long way off of course and the ECM might be different again on the 12z but maybe a new trend to keep tabs on. GFS then goes onto show the familiar trough dropping to our east, which was the story of the winter really:

 

 

Edited April 9, 2015 by Winter Cold

[Captain Shortwave]

I can't see the chilly solution of the ECM op coming off to be honest as the model simply makes the Euro ridge disappear allowing the pattern switch. I suspect the Euro ridge will be more resilient, though the surface pattern will likely deteriorate from the middle of next week. Though I favour a complex and slack pattern with low pressure to our south west becoming more influential. How this transpires will be difficult to determine.

The 06z coming out now shows this well

Warm everywhere but becoming unsettled in the south and west of the country.

[summer blizzard]

Very interesting output from the 6z. Essentially we have high pressure from day 4 (Monday) to day 11 however we essentially develop a Spanish Plume on Thursday and Friday before pressure builds again for a few days. 

 

[Frosty.]

It's looking really good again next week according to the Gfs 6z and the latest MO update with almost a repeat of the current wonderful conditions as high pressure builds in across the south from next Monday and as it migrates to the east / southeast of the UK, increasingly warm southerly winds develop and temperatures climb into the 70's F, becoming very warm again...lovely April weather.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Though I favour a complex and slack pattern with low pressure to our south west becoming more influential. How this transpires will be difficult to determine.

The 06z coming out now shows this well

Warm everywhere but becoming unsettled in the south and west of the country.

Depending on whether the GFS produces similar scenarios on future runs, it's quite possible a (brief) thundery breakdown could occur late next week as that South-Western UK Low Pressure system on that GFS chart bumps up against the warm air over the UK.

Despite being strictly in Fantasy Island, and not really worth taking too seriously at the moment, the example from the GFS 06Z shows a reasonable storm risk for late on Thursday over South-Western areas (Precipitation charts included too):

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) values fairly modest as well:

Admittedly, this feels like a little ramp (the idea of seeing the first storm of the year happening in April would be very thrilling), and again, with this still being a week away, will probably likely change on the next run. But still kinda nice to see signs of stormy/thundery weather starting to arise in the models and could be a taster to what the rest of this Spring and Summer has in store for those that like warm and/or stormy weather. Getting to that time of year where thundery weather starts becoming more likely. Some models have been showing ideas for High Pressure to build to our North-East or North late next week with some kind of Low dropping to our South or South-West, so certainly a few thundery storms or downpours couldn't be totally ruled out from a Spanish Plume-like setup (albeit the thundery possibilities may be mostly concentrated towards Western/South-Western areas).

It certainly looks the case, for now, that Low Pressure to the West will start becoming more in control for the next few days with some spells of rain and showers. And feeling cooler in the Westerly winds too particularly over Northern areas. The worst of the unsettled weather being over North-Western areas and some of the showers could be wintry over the hills.

The 6 to 10 day NOAA 500mb anomaly chart does agree with the idea of heights building back over Southern and South-Eastern UK next week (red dashed lines showing the higher than average heights towards the East/South-East with a South-West flow at the 500mb level), so a good chance that for a time next week, more places could indeed become settled again, with the best of the brightest and warmest conditions being towards the South-East. Perhaps a bit more cloudier with the odd spot of rain at times towards Northern or North-Western areas.

Not really that confident at the moment, though, that heights will build to our North/North-West with a chance that a less settled (and perhaps cooler) Westerly flow could take over again.

(Though should some models continue with playing about with height rises to the North, it may change).

Edited April 9, 2015 by DiagonalRedLine

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z shows increasingly warm and settled weather returning for much of next week with high pressure again building in across the south and then transferring east allowing very warm and gradually more humid air to waft north into the UK, lots of very warm sunshine but then later next week an increasing risk of scattered T-Storms breaking out..another taste of summer on the way.