Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[damianslaw]

In my June prediction I suggested there is a chance of something perhaps cooler rather than warmer but was lulled by the forecasts a few days ago of the warmer theme holding influence. The models now have certainly backed away from anything particularly warm other than the 24 hour plume due to hit SE parts on Friday. Indeed it looks average at best and probably a little below average next week with some notably chilly nights.

 

Still the models are suggesting a fairly decent spell of weather - dry sunny calm weather which we can't complain about. Longer term generally more unsettled conditions could easily develop with heights languishing to the SW and the trough anchoring itself across the country from the NW which would mean a potentially cool June overall, not what many have predicted, we shall see..

[knocker]

On the business of learning from mistakes if I remember correctly there was a very thorough investigation into the forecast for the 87 storm and after they did a rerun incorporating what they had learnt and it was just about spot on. That's the bare bones version.

 

Anyway tonight's anomalies. Pretty good agreement between the GEFs and ECM vis the weak trough, with slightly different orientation, and the LP to the SW. Plus the NOAA fits in okay if you take the transition between the 6-10 and 8-14 which coincides with the others.

 

In the ext period the ECM does make too much of this trough so a watching brief still in order.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited June 3, 2015 by knocker

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I'd rather be seeing all of this drama now and then seeing a heat wave during the end of June or throughout July. The uppers at that stage would be likely to be much higher. Still time for things to change. We are certainly overdue a 1995 style August that's for sure!

[stainesbloke]

I'd rather be seeing all of this drama now and then seeing a heat wave during the end of June or throughout July. The uppers at that stage would be likely to be much higher. Still time for things to change. We are certainly overdue a 1995 style August that's for sure!

We are due a hot August, I agree. I'd rather see warm/hot spells appearing throughout summer with cooler/wetter spells interspersed, however, rather than 3 weeks of warmth in one month and cold rubbish the rest of the season. June doesn't look great from current indications but it's early days yet.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I think its accurate enough to say that a small but vociferous number of armchair keyboard pundits take the luxury of an easy life by sitting back, offering little to next to nothing themselves beyond "this doesn't look right" and still embrace brass nerve to criticise those who endeavour to research and test scientific theory. Those who put themselves right at the front line in taking the risk that predictions they may make based on the Science being studied to improve knowledge and forecasting might be wrong - because of the huge uncertainties that are involved in the chaotic complexity of how our atmosphere works.

 

This is not just restricted by any means to amateurs who use this site or any other, but professionals out there, who are studying all kinds of complicated science, and forecasting tools which are not fully understood. This very much includes the Met Office.

 

 

The thing is Tamara the sentiment of the post was completely overlooked. It was not a dig at anyone...especially those who use science to guide their insights but it was a post to merely highlight the issue with regards to weather forecasting and the complete blight that chaos theory imposes on it. My point was that regardless of the amount of effort and time instigated in understanding the physics of a situation, sometimes it can all be undone by factors which we don't yet have a grip on. I think I commented on and sent PMs to yourself and other members last winter commending the work that was put in day after day, week after week so to be labelled as an 'armchair, keyboard pundit' is a tad unsavoury.

 

Maybe it's the way I present myself within my posts but I can assure you that there were no digs intended within that post.

Edited June 4, 2015 by CreweCold

[Captain Shortwave]

The output looks settled out to day 10 on both the GFS and GEM, though the later does see conditions slowly deteriorate as heights gradually erode though.

Early next week we will see a cold pool move down the north sea and into Europe, this will need watching as its final location could prove key the conditions for the UK, we need to see this move towards Portugal or further west, this could allow the ridge over Europe to rebuild and bring the warmth back up from the south (this was shown in the 18z GFS op last night and also to a degree on the GEM this morning). Even without this temperatures should generally recover to near or a little above average as the suns strength gradually warms conditions at both the surface and the 850pa level.

Edited June 4, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[coldcomfort]

Agree CS....on the face of it the fat high sat close by initially looks very pleasing to the eye for all of us, but it's position is critical to what we see weatherwise next week and imo there will be some large regional variation. Firstly those across Ireland and the far west of the mainland look set fair, with temps near normal generally, but favoured spots with hills to their east can expect some localised warmth. Central areas should fair pretty much OK, but cloud will come and go here and may be thick enough at times to give some rain or drizzle, especially as you suggested early next week. Eastern England currently looks to get the s****y end of this particular stick, especially the farther south you go, with probably more cloud than sun, some rain at times and temps a little below average.....even chilly at times on the coast.

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON THURSDAY JUNE 4TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure from a European anticyclone covers the UK today followed by a trough of Low pressure moving East across the UK tonight and tomorrow..

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Gradually becoming more settled with sunny spells and warm conditions for a time especially in the West.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast continues to show it blowing across the UK pushing a ridge of High pressure away East over Europe while a new ridge moves in from the West later as the flow weakens and eventually settles much more towards a point North of the UK before returning South and strengthening again at the very end of the period.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows High pressure gradually becoming established to the West of the UK pushing a ridge across Southern Britain early next week and a NW flow across the North. Then as the ridge in the South declines a little a new ridge from the same High covers the North and a NE flow develops across the South which then maintains itself until late in the run when pressure finally falls from the North and the dry and fine weather with locally warm conditions become replaced by cloud, rain and showers later from the NW.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run features the same synoptic pattern through the first week with a lot of fine and pleasant early Summer weather for many under a ridge of High pressure based just West of the UK. However, the High declines quicker on this run in the wake of cool and unstable North or NW winds blowing down across the UK in the second week with rain and showers at times.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today maintain the theme of High pressure likely to be lying out to the SW of the UK two weeks from now with varying degrees of influence between members ranging from fine and dry weather under average temperatures to unsettled weather from Low pressure too close to the North to eliminate the threat of rain to many. 

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO this morning shows cool, fresh and settled conditions across the UK at the start of next week as a large High lies parked to the West with a ridge from it lying across the heart of the UK. Pleasantly warm in the sunshine look the order of conditions but night's look like being cool and a naggingly cool NE breeze looks like affecting the South early next week.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts mirror thhe raw data package this morning quite well with High pressure just to the West of the UK becoming the main influence for the UK next week

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today shows persistent High pressure centred just to the west of the Uk for a week or so once formed at this coming weekend. Ill positioned for the best of conditions it should still provide plenty of dry and bright weather with variable cloud cover but chilly nights where skies clear under a Northerly drift. Late in the run the ridge collapses somewhat with the increased risk of some showers by Day 10.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM looks set fair next week as High pressure establishes across Ireland or just to the West over the weekend and persists then throughout next week. A ridge from it then covers the UK with fine and dry weather under variable cloud cover with the best temperatures likely towards shelter to the light North or NE flow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM too shows High pressure well in control of the UK weather next week, centred foremostly to the West of the UK with a strong ridge across our Islands ensuring fine, dry and pleasantly warm weather away from any variable and sometimes large cloud patches and any breeze blowing from the North or NE, this principally across the South early next week. The end of the run suggests something of a collapse in pressure which in many respects mirrors last night's 10 day mean chart showing slack relatively High pressure still across the UK but with the risk of some showers.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night maintains something resembling a ridge towards the UK from High pressure to the SW in 10 days time but with an upper air pressure weakness over NW Europe one should cater for the chance of showers here and there.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend is very much a High pressure based one this morning lasting a week or so with a centre most likely just to the West of the UK.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.6 pts followed by UKM at 95.5 pts and GFS at 95.1. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS with 85.6 over GFS's's 81.7 pts with UKMO at 81.3. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 51.9 over 44.4. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 30.2 pts to 22.6 pts.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS It is almost certain now that the UK will become affected by a large High pressure area centred just to the West of the UK through next week and probably beyond. Before we get there a somewhat messy weekend picture of humid air exiting the SE with thundery showers and a cold front clearing through Britain bringing cooler and fresher conditions with a few showers in the North has to be got through before all areas look like settling into many days of broken cloud and sunny spells. Temperatures should be average or somewhat above by day given any shelter with the prohibitive hot weather factor being the persistence of a drift of wind from the North or NE keeping exposed parts naggingly cool. Cloud amounts could be an issue by day too with convective cloud formation in the morning's flattening out to give some rather cloudy afternoons for some and while this largely clears overnight some cool nights can be expected too especially where winds fall light. However, having highlighted some negativity the upside is that all areas look like staying dry for a week or so at least with just the risk of a few showers as the ridge shows signs of weakening somewhat later in the period. The threat of more widespread thundery showers from continental Europe has receded somewhat for now but not completely eliminated and developments to the South will have to be watched later next week. So all in all though things would of been better with the High positioned further East over or to the East of the UK we have to make do with it where it's programmed to be and for many in the West and SW where the highest temperatures are likely next week few complaints should be heard from there and for all areas next week's weather going on this morning's output continues to show a marked improvement over what many of us have seen of late.

 

Next update from 08:00 Thursday June 4th 2015

[Summer Sun]

Next 8 days looking a fair bit drier than of late though north west Scotland is likely to see the most of the rain if the precipitation forecasts are correct

 

 

With the high parking its self to the west temperatures, although feeling pleasant by day in any sunshine will come out below average in most areas with nowhere above average

 

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM op illustrates my point quite well this morning.

The cold pool quickly shifts towards Iberia allowing warm air from the south to pump back northwards. It also means that the winds will end up from a more continental source instead of the north/north easterlies shown in previous runs. So the end of the week could turn warm or very warm if we get this scenario going. Confidence is of course low given the type of systems we are looking at and the final position of any low heights to our south is up for major speculation. But again anything over Portugal westwards will be good to draw up warmth from the south and might also make retrogression less likely as we would still end up with higher heights over Europe. Iberia eastwards however will probably result in cool and cloudy conditions for eastern areas and make retrogression more likely.

[Milhouse]

Later next week still looking rather nice with temperatures back up into the warm category. By Thursday the cool uppers have been enveloped by warmer air and temperatures are back nudging 20c and it stays warm into the first part of the weekend too. Can we avoid another swipe by the cooler air next weekend is the big question.

 

[coldcomfort]

Later next week still looking rather nice with temperatures back up into the warm category. By Thursday the cool uppers have been enveloped by warmer air and temperatures are back nudging 20c and it stays warm into the first part of the weekend too. Can we avoid another swipe by the cooler air next weekend is the big question.

 

Indeed, that is certainly the $64000 question for now.  No getting away from it, the low res GFS paints a rather ugly picture after mid month (actually it's a butt ugly picture) with us trapped under a deep cold trough sandwiched between two strong anticyclones over both Scandi and the Azores....a setup that is very difficult to get out of once in.

 

OK I'll say it.....doesn't look right to me...   

[summer blizzard]

All models seem to have a lackluster breakdown by day 10 although it's more a glancing low than a return what we've had.

 

[049balt]

Still mostly dry, temps. look average at best.

 

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

Edited June 4, 2015 by 049balt

[mushymanrob]

Still mostly dry, temps. look average at best.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

Dry and average... Thats pretty good. A lot of useable weather on the gfs 12z with a hint of some heat later next week

Not bad, not bad at all.

Edited June 4, 2015 by mushymanrob

[knocker]

Seems to me the ecm is more bullish about a threat of low pressure from the Arctic threatening northern regions of the uk wheras gfs mean is a lot more interested at keeping the low pressure at bay on the 8-10 day mean:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

It's times like this where I don't know what to believe in and it all depends on what Tamara said about the global wind oscillation. That'll be probably the major player in how things develop.

All I know is we'll probably have quite a respectable week next week with the weather not really bringing the worst of anything.

 

You are right pj but unfortunately looking at tonight's GEFS there is still a quite quick transition to the trough around the 12th which wouldn't be that obvious on a five day mean. It has the trough well established by the 13th down well into western Europe and maintains slack low pressure thereafter with perhaps a suspicion of Azores ridging in the ext. period.so looking at temps a wee bit below average for a time. Await to see what the ECM makes of this but it is consistent with last night.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited June 4, 2015 by knocker

[summer blizzard]

Significant divergence past day 7 remains. Tonight's Euro the most progressive for some time..

 

[049balt]

Significant divergence past day 7 remains. Tonight's Euro the most progressive for some time..

 

The Atlantic looks very quiet to me, Q. Tamara!

[mountain shadow]

Significant divergence past day 7 remains. Tonight's Euro the most progressive for some time..

 

I hope the ECM is being too progressive about a return to unseasonal Atlantic lows. 4/5 days of relatively better weather and then a return to cooler North Westerlies if it came off.

[049balt]

I hope the ECM is being too progressive about a return to unseasonal Atlantic lows. 4/5 days of relatively better weather and then a return to cooler North Westerlies if it came off.

I feel it different this time, a more normal type of benign Summer weather is what I expect.

[Milhouse]

The way low pressure manages to force its way through a rather robust looking high at 168h is rather suprising and not really believable to be honest.

 

[Winter Cold]

Evening

 

Looks like early to mid next week is looking nice for most, with hopefully sunny and warm conditions. The big 3 are showing some nice charts;

 

ECM -

 

     

 

 

UKMO -

 

     

 

 

GFS -

 

     

 

 

Then going onto next Friday the GFS and ECM have different ideas with the former keeping things a lot more settled than the latter. Indeed the ECM wants to re-introduce cooler and unsettled weather quickly:

 

GFS -

 

  

 

 

ECM -

 

  

 

 

The hope is that the ECM is being progressive and it could well be. The GFS 12z is supported very well by its ensembles for the 12th so difficult to see whats right as we dont get to see images like this for the ECM:

 

[DAVID SNOW]

The way low pressure manages to force its way through a rather robust looking high at 168h is rather suprising and not really believable to be honest.

 

 

It's not really a 'robust' high though? It's rather squeezed  and elongated .

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening folks , a very brief plume ,followed by settled cool conditions then by Thursday next week , Pressure falling from the North and South. You realiy could not make it up!!!

[Milhouse]

It's not really a 'robust' high though? It's rather squeezed  and elongated .

 

Compared to the GEM and the GFS it doesnt really put up much of a fight. Lets see what the mean shows.

 

And it shows that the OP cuts short the settled spell rather early compared to the mean.

 

Edited June 4, 2015 by Milhouse