Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[ANYWEATHER]

That's well outside the reliable timeframe. I find it amusing that you accuse others of cherry picking charts, and then you yourself cherry pick charts that are even further out and have far less chance of verifying!

All  I am saying is there is a trend, nothing else.....im not cherry picking...Honestly

[knocker]

Still no agreement between the GEFS and ECM anomalies tonight,

 

The GEFS is still making more of the upper trough than the ECM for the next weekend. This would translate in the surface analysis to the former bringing LP over, or very adjacent, to the UK with the ECM keeping it more to the north and south with ridging from the Azores high more influential. The fact there is still disagreement does tend to still keep the options open.

 

Moving on a tad they both quickly lose influence from the trough so it is very transitory in any case.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[knocker]

The move from ECM towards the UKMO has made me sit up. I was, like many, expecting a deterioration by next Friday and for warmth (i.e. 20C plus) never to get established. But I remember one of my golden forecasting rules is - if the ECM and UKMO are more like each other than the GFS, that's where to put my money. UKMO suggests nothing but a very warm end to next week and the ECM now is possibly the same. Sure, the ECM has been yo-yoing a bit, but UKMO has been extremely consistent. If the pattern is repeated tomorrow morning by these models, we might need to start rewriting next weekend's forecast. 

 

I wasn't aware it had been written. As far as I can see the ECM has never been on board with the GEFS which has been on it's own, apart from the GEPS, in the development of the upper trough.

[Cloud 10]

UKMO and GFS 18z at day 6 highlight the uncertainty in the model output at the moment.

 

ukmo..  gfs 18z..

[Captain Shortwave]

A small shift west with that low from the GFS, at least some warm air gets into the south before the low moves north and given the westward shift we don't see any cold northerly either.

Fine margins here with the cut off low being very hard to resolve in terms of placement in the medium term. So expect more swings but hopefully we can get some warmer weather developing a the end of next week.

[summer blizzard]

It's a shame that the UKMO does not go out further. At day 7 GFS has support from JMA and GEM with the Euro on its own.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

So June is not over as CC predicted Frosty ?? The models do seem to be tooing and froing (sp) but mostly on the up if  its fine days and fine day temps you are after.

 

They say those who laugh last laugh the longest....

 

Not over by any means but the mid term charts are hardly inspiring

 

 

Not quite as poor as the 18z granted...but the UKMO 0z has backed away from the HP domination of the 12z

 

 

The NWP seems all at sea at present and, as Nick has pointed out, I wouldn't want to be making a call either way as we look forward further into June. I think a fair summary on balance would be a tussle between the Atlantic and repeated attempts at the Azores high to ridge into the UK. Pretty typical British summer tbh.

Edited June 6, 2015 by CreweCold

[knocker]

The GFS is running a different scenario to yesterday for the end of next week although still involving low pressure. Thursday at 18 it has the low N. France 1008mb which travels NE to N. Denmark by 12 on Friday. By 12 on Saturday there is a ridge over England but another low winging in from the WNW. By 12 Sunday this low is in the North Sea 998mb. Thereafter high pressure reigns. This is consistent with the upper trough on last night's anomaly.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited June 6, 2015 by knocker

[coldcomfort]

That's well outside the reliable timeframe. I find it amusing that you accuse others of cherry picking charts, and then you yourself cherry pick charts that are even further out and have far less chance of verifying!

To my untrained eye the 'reliable timeframe' appears very much a moveable feast, in so much as it can be T+384hrs when it shows what many want to see and as short as T+48hrs when it doesn't. 

 

Both GFS and UKMO go for a more unsettled pattern in what I deem to be the RT this morning, just waiting to see now if ECM makes it a treble.

[Man With Beard]

UKMO moves towards GFS this morning by T144 - ECM takes a tiny step in this direction too but not enough to stop high pressure holding on and an increasingly warm situation. A lot depending on the behaviour of the low to or south by next Wednesday / Thursday. No clear cut answers yet, then, but the unsettled theme for next weekend slightly more favoured so far today.

[bluearmy]

You'd like to think the mist would begin to clear as the next runs appear, but instead, this is turning into a bit of a 'pea souper'!

[knocker]

You'd like to think the mist would begin to clear as the next runs appear, but instead, this is turning into a bit of a 'pea souper'!

 

Yes it's quite interesting that no clear signal has yet emerged. As far as I can see the difference between the GFS and ECM ops runs this morning vis the end of next week reflects the difference in last night's anomalies. The more powerful trough to the north is squeesing the jet into the wrong position. Plus even taking the GFS this trouphing is apparently very transitory.

Edited June 6, 2015 by knocker

[Methuselah]

Yes it's quite interesting that no clear signal has yet emerged. As far as I can see the difference between the GFS and ECM ops runs this morning vis the end of next week reflects the difference in last night's anomalies. Plus even taking the GFS this trouphing is apparently very transitory.

I'm wondering whether the current ENSO-situation might be playing havoc with the model predictions? The do all seem to be somewhat haphazard in their respective outputs...

[knocker]

I'm wondering whether the current ENSO-situation might be playing havoc with the model predictions? The do all seem to be somewhat haphazard in their respective outputs...

 

I should think it a pretty safe bet that the going's on in the Pacific are bound to have some sort of knock on effect which the models find difficult to pick up.

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SATURDAY JUNE 6TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A depression near Northern Scotland and a Westerly flow over the UK will weaken as the Low moves away and fills by tomorrow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Gradually becoming more settled with sunny spells and warm conditions for a time especially in the West before more unstable conditions develop late in the week and next weekend.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast continues to show a problem for the UK as the flow weakens currently across us before moving away to the NW for a time next week. It then moves back South later next week and though less strong remains instrumental in carrying some Atlantic Low pressure influence to the UK in the second week broken up at times by ridges of High pressure diverting it back north at times.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational illustrtaes the pattern I described in the Jet Stream forecast well and shows High pressure across the UK next week with a lot of fine, dry and warm by day weather before a showery Low develops near the SE late in the week and introduces a spell of more unsettled conditions with some rain before a return to more settled conditions under warm High pressure is shown to temporatily affect the UK again in Week 2.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is broadly the same as the operational in terms of sequence of events this morning with perhaps more of a surge of very warm air in association with the second High pressure area shown in Week 2.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show a close to 50/50 split between those members that show a High pressure ridge from the SW affecting the UK and those that show a greater chance that at least a shallow trough of Low pressure covers the UK and a few who signify something more disturbed than that.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO this morning has taken a turn for the worse this morning as it has High pressure across the UK midweek before retiring it away down to the SW later with a cooler NW flow slowly becoming established across the UK late in the week.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure settling over the UK by midweek though the last too charts (96 & 120hrs) were produced based on yesterdays 12z model run.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today shows High pressure straddling Central parts of the UK by midweek with  fine and dry weather across all areas. Then pressure falls both from the South and North and the High gets squeezed away SW across the Atlantic as cool and unsettled weather becomes established across the UK for a time.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM does show a decline in pressure too later next week but does cling in to relatively High pressure of sorts near the North. After a fine first 3-4 days of next week some showery outbreaks look likely to break out over the South next weekend under shallow Low pressure to the South.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM shows deteriorating conditions too later next week as the High over the UK declines across the UK in the wake of Low pressure moving up from the South and to some degree from the NW too. The end result becomes an Atlantic depression to the West of Ireland at day 10 spelling a NW/SE split later with the North and West unsettled with rain at times while the South and East becomes dry and warm with some sunshine 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart shows the likely pressure across the UK to be around 1015mbs under quite slack conditions overall. While the chart does not depict any particular weather type without any bias towards High or Low pressure dominance I would suggest a lot of dry weather would be present with the risk of showers here and there.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend continues to ebb and flow  towards a more unsettled and showery interlude at least to develop across the UK late next week.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.7 pts followed by UKM at 95.5 pts and GFS at 95.1. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS with 85.3 over GFS's's 81.4 pts with UKMO at 81.3. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 49.8 over 43.6. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 32.2 pts to 23.4 pts.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS Once again this morning the models have led us up the garden path somewhat from even what was shown last night as once more a decline in pressure is shown to develop across the UK later next week replacing the fine and relatively warm daytime conditions with more showery and cooler weather by the weekend. The problems appear two fold as once more pressure is shown to fall from the South but also from the North too setting up a showery period under a likely Northerly drift. The models continue to show that it may well be a temporary blip as High pressure builds back through the second week with ECM this morning showing the likely pattern that was responsible for the longer term outlook from the Met yesterday with South and East becoming best for sun and warmth longer term. However, confidence and sustained patterning within the models for the mid and long term is extremely low at the moment with no model seeming to be able to get a handle on the overall pattern likely to emerge from later next week. It is worthy of mention that the verification statistics of the models longer term has been in the low 20's at times of late and continues to be woefully low so while this uncertainty remains let's enjoy what is relatively certain and that is a period of High pressure based weather with plenty of fine and warm sunshine and just chilly nights to worry about rather than wind and rain and hopefully in the coming days the models may finally come to some agreement on the likely course of events longer term.

 

Next update from 08:00 Sunday June 7th 2015

[mountain shadow]

So. there we have it. GFS v UKMet & ECM and the GFS looks like verifying with the return to unsettled conditions next weekend.

You couldn't make it up.

[mushymanrob]

hmmm... is it just me or are some posters trying to put an overly negetive spin on the outputs, even to some degree of glee?

overall, there a lot of high pressure dominance/influence, its never far away, with anything unsettled or/and cool being transitory. yes we are likely to get a cool northerly next weekend, so what? its not expected to last more then a day or two before more high pressure re-builds. frosty illustrates this by posting the mean charts.

we currently have a very promising 5 days odd (away from the north today) of dry, fresh, sunny, weather with temps average or there abouts (according the the bbc weathermen). whats not to like? and theres a strong promis of more to come after a blip or two.

i reckon theres a damn good chance of something hot emerging sooner or later, as long as we are dallying with high pressure at this time of the year, its only a question of time imho.

[Smiler1709]

hmmm... is it just me or are some posters trying to put an overly negetive spin on the outputs, even to some degree of glee?

overall, there a lot of high pressure dominance/influence, its never far away, with anything unsettled or/and cool being transitory. yes we are likely to get a cool northerly next weekend, so what? its not expected to last more then a day or two before more high pressure re-builds. frosty illustrates this by posting the mean charts.

we currently have a very promising 5 days odd (away from the north today) of dry, fresh, sunny, weather with temps average or there abouts (according the the bbc weathermen). whats not to like? and theres a strong promis of more to come after a blip or two.

i reckon theres a damn good chance of something hot emerging sooner or later, as long as we are dallying with high pressure at this time of the year, its only a question of time imho.

Spot on mate, it's the usual lot that post charts 6-7 days away thinking thats the way the weather is going to pan out, when in reality the models struggle with any consistency past 3 days. What we do have is 4-5 days of settled weather for us all to enjoy. Whatever happens next is anyone's guess. There's a certain few who seem to enjoy putting a negative spin on things. Easily ignored though.

High pressure is never far away in summer and even if we do get a unsettled spot, it doesn't last long and things often settle down before you know it.

[knocker]

So. there we have it. GFS v UKMet & ECM and the GFS looks like verifying with the return to unsettled conditions next weekend.

You couldn't make it up.

 

Well you just have.

[shaky]

ecm looks lovely!!gfs is horrible this morning and ukmo inbetween!!i bet this evening run will be completely different!!something has to give!!!

[coldcomfort]

ecm looks lovely!!gfs is horrible this morning and ukmo inbetween!!i bet this evening run will be completely different!!something has to give!!!

It is indeed a real dogs breakfast atm, but at least folk can pick whichever run they want to believe and in so doing make a case for just about any senario post T+144hrs. I think the only safe call atm is next weeks high pressure and largely settled conditions will give way to lower pressure and generally more unsettled weather, but exactly how that change A....manifests itself and B... develops beyond next weekend remains about as clear as mud.

[Methuselah]

High pressure is never far away in summer and even if we do get a unsettled spot, it doesn't last long and things often settle down before you know it.

I agree: just don't mention 2012, eh?

[summer blizzard]

So. there we have it. GFS v UKMet & ECM and the GFS looks like verifying with the return to unsettled conditions next weekend.

You couldn't make it up.

 

It was GFS+GEM+Model Fodder to be fair.

[Summer Sun]

GFS ens is settled up to and including Thursday then Friday to Sunday it turns unsettled with the risk of some rain just about anywhere at some point, though in any sunshine and light winds the strong sunshine will make it feel pleasant enough

 

 

Into the following week pressure slowly rises again settling things down and becoming warmer though how far north the high gets remains open to question Scotland may remain at risk of some rain / showers

 

 

So in summary settled up on Thursday with the gusty wind in the north today easing over the next 24 hours then turning unsettled for next weekend, then suggestions pressure rebuilds in the following week, but question marks how far north it could get

Edited June 6, 2015 by Summer Sun

[bluearmy]

The ECM mean is certainly more Scandi trough influenced than Azores ridge. At the moment, the momentum is leaning towards the gfs solution although the infra model differences likely mean it won't be as straightforward as that.