Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z in low res looks really nice, it shows a scandi high forming and linking up with the Azores high to bring a nationwide fine and warm spell. In the meantime, this weekend will be fresher with sunny spells, mainly dry apart from blustery showers in the far northwest. Next week looks largely fine and pleasantly warm across England and Wales with high pressure in control bringing good spells of sunshine but the high gradually sinks south and the north turns more unsettled, especially for Scotland and northern ireland after midweek. A widespread cooler unsettled blip at the end of next week but then signs of fine and warm conditions returning.

Edited June 5, 2015 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

Some pretty big differences still at t120

 

UKMO has low pressure west of Portugal and high pressure over us, that set up could allow some warmer air to head our way

 

 

GFS meanwhile, has a different idea with low pressure over northern Spain and most of France rain in those areas, but in turn pressure isn't as high for us

 

Edited June 5, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

Another cracker of a run from the UKMO, the high builds and settles right over the UK with warmth being pumped up from the south.

Increasingly sunny and warm if this verified.

 

Very different even at 4/5 days out to the GFS. Whilst the low is further west it still stalls and eventually pushes back north towards the UK, bring some heavy and thundery rain to the south with a cold and brisk wind.

 

Who knows how things are going to pan out. Until the UKMO can garner some support, it remains the outside solution.

Edited June 5, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Methuselah]

Another cracker of a run from the UKMO, the high builds and settles right over the UK with warmth being pumped up from the south.

Increasingly sunny and warm if this verified.

 

Very different even at 4/5 days out to the GFS. Whilst the low is further west it still stalls and eventually pushes back north towards the UK, bring some heavy and thundery rain to the south with a cold and brisk wind.

 

Who knows how things are going to pan out. Until the UKMO can garner some support, it remains the outside solution.

That almost sounds too good to be true...Warm sunshine or thunderstorms - take your pick? 

Edited June 5, 2015 by Ed Stone

[Frosty.]

The ukmo 12z shows the best possible outcome next week with a very pleasant spell for all parts as the UK based anticyclone drifts slowly east and becomes centred slap bang on top of the UK by T+144 hours, we would see temperatures into the low 20's celsius during the second half of next week on this run. I think next week is going to be a good one for most areas, at least for England and Wales, high pressure in control, light winds and a good deal of sunshine and pleasantly warm but with chilly nights where skies clear.

Edited June 5, 2015 by Frosty.

[MR EXTREMES]

I'd be inclined to say the ukmo has wrap around air source as cooler but not cold around average but more settled.

But the gfs wrap around picking up heat source from the south more unsettled but humid and thundery.

either way not especially cool away from the north so all in all better runs in the last couple of days although rare that the ukmo would be wrong.

[Frosty.]

I think the GEFS 12z mean is very encouraging both in the short term and further ahead with the next week or so dominated by high pressure bringing pleasantly warm and dry weather with good sunny spells and although there is a cooler less settled blip at the end of next week, the Azores high builds in a few days later with a return to warmer and sunnier conditions.

[049balt]

_{Looking good.}

 

 

_{http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html}

[Scorcher]

A very good run from the ECM 12Z to follow up the lovely run from the UKMO. Great to see some support for the UKMO- the Euros seem to be going for that Iberian low again, which is great for bringing up that warm air from the south and east.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z is a really good run with the week ahead dominated by high pressure bringing long spells of very strong sunshine and light winds, as for temperatures, pleasantly warm first half of next week with chilly nights but then becoming warmer by day and night, very warm or hot in the south towards the end of next week, a risk of thundery showers later..what else can I say apart from B A N K

[shaky]

good thing is ecm supports the ukmo this evening with a beautiful run!!gfs on its own at the moment!!

[mountain shadow]

Please please weather Gods, let it be so.

GFS v UKMet & ECM. Only one way this can go, surely?

[bluearmy]

Please please weather Gods, let it be so.

GFS v UKMet & ECM. Only one way this can go, surely?

 

i think its 50/50 though the iberian low being cut off before eventually ejecting ne appears to have the momentum whilst the american models seem to still be reading yesterdays news. could easily swing back to the gfs script tomorrow though. infact, where there seems to be two quite markedly different solutions on the table, it would not be wise to predict anything. the envelope is wide indeed.

[Biggin]

The ukmo 12z shows the best possible outcome next week with a very pleasant spell for all parts as the UK based anticyclone drifts slowly east and becomes centred slap bang on top of the UK by T+144 hours, we would see temperatures into the low 20's celsius during the second half of next week on this run. I think next week is going to be a good one for most areas, at least for England and Wales, high pressure in control, light winds and a good deal of sunshine and pleasantly warm but with chilly nights where skies clear.

So June is not over as CC predicted Frosty ?? The models do seem to be tooing and froing (sp) but mostly on the up if  its fine days and fine day temps you are after.

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening Guys and Gals. A fine weekend coming up for most away from Scotland , then everyone enjoying the fun for a few days with low dewpoints, low humidities  , but cloud amounts will very from place to place, but plenty of dry weather to be had , just watch out for ground frosts, if youre  a gardener perhaps air frosts in one or two locations. The Pivitol point next week is Thursday, Pressure falling and it looks as though unsettled conditions will be moving north across southern Britain. So enjoy the days ahead....Models though really struggling with detail, but at the moment this is the trend....

[ANYWEATHER]

So June is not over as CC predicted Frosty ?? The models do seem to be tooing and froing (sp) but mostly on the up if  its fine days and fine day temps you are after.

Unfortunately, Its called Cherry Picking....

[AWD]

Unfortunately, Its called Cherry Picking....

But haven't you cherry picked the charts to suit your view above?

FI charts at that.

The reliable timeframe holds plenty of useable, dry and pleasent weather for many, albeit a tad on the chilly side at night.

Then FI does what FI always does, each model going in a different direction. Nothing in the long range anomaly based predictions indicate anything other than variances on average June conditions though.

Get out and enjoy the current useable weather, it looks like the predominant weather type for the foreseeable.

And as a side note, what's with the pic of the dog?

Edited June 5, 2015 by AWD

[Mokidugway]

But haven't you cherry picked the charts to suit your view above?

FI charts at that.

The reliable timeframe holds plenty of useable, dry and pleasent weather for many, albeit a tad on the chilly side at night.

Then FI does what FI always does, each model going in a different direction. Nothing in the long range anomaly based predictions indicate anything other than variances on average June conditions though.

Get out and enjoy the current useable weather, it looks like the predominant weather type for the foreseeable.

And as a side note, what's with the pic of the dog?

isn't it the D.O.G ensemble :0..

[ANYWEATHER]

But haven't you cherry picked the charts to suit your view above?

FI charts at that.

The reliable timeframe holds plenty of useable, dry and pleasent weather for many, albeit a tad on the chilly side at night.

Then FI does what FI always does, each model going in a different direction. Nothing in the long range anomaly based predictions indicate anything other than variances on average June conditions though.

Get out and enjoy the current useable weather, it looks like the predominant weather type for the foreseeable.

And as a side note, what's with the pic of the dog?

Look Ive not cherry picked anything. Ive posted over the last few days about the "TREND" from the models. And as get out and enjoy the weather, I work outside all the time,,,,

[Frank Trough]

Evening Guys and Gals. A fine weekend coming up for most away from Scotland , then everyone enjoying the fun for a few days with low dewpoints, low humidities  , but cloud amounts will very from place to place, but plenty of dry weather to be had , just watch out for ground frosts, if youre  a gardener perhaps air frosts in one or two locations. The Pivitol point next week is Thursday, Pressure falling and it looks as though unsettled conditions will be moving north across southern Britain. So enjoy the days ahead....Models though really struggling with detail, but at the moment this is the trend....

 

based on what? That really is cherry picking! neither the UKMO or ECMFW show that happening at the timeframe you claim?

 

 

but if we're cherry picking the GFS then yes, you're right:

 

[Frank Trough]

Look Ive not cherry picked anything. Ive posted over the last few days about the "TREND" from the models. And as get out and enjoy the weather, I work outside all the time,,,,

 

What would you say the TREND from the UKMO has been over the last couple runs?

[ANYWEATHER]

based on what? That really is cherry picking! neither the UKMO or ECMFW show that happening at the timeframe you claim?

 

 

but if we're cherry picking the GFS then yes, you're right:

 

For heavens sake ,if you look at the last couple of days the ecm and gfs show a trend of pressure falling from the north and south around about later next week,. please come on here and show me some thing different from both models that Ive  posted....

What would you say the TREND from the UKMO has been over the last couple runs?

Youre just using one run.....

[gottolovethisweather]

Friday night fun and games in here it seems, reminiscent of an increasingly rowdy scene at a local bar. 

 

Remember the rules guys n gals, play nice, be respectful and have fun interpreting the eventual outcome of the UK weather be it at D3, D5, D10 or even beyond.

 

FWIW, I am seeing an overall drier setup with typical/average Temperatures at first then becoming increasingly warmer/hotter more widely later with potential for isolated storms into deeper FI, deja vu perhaps. Predominance for most usable weather always towards the South and East but exclusively so. 

Edited June 5, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[Scorcher]

For heavens sake ,if you look at the last couple of days the ecm and gfs show a trend of pressure falling from the north and south around about later next week,. please come on here and show me some thing different from both models that Ive  posted....

Youre just using one run.....

 

That's well outside the reliable timeframe. I find it amusing that you accuse others of cherry picking charts, and then you yourself cherry pick charts that are even further out and have far less chance of verifying!

[Man With Beard]

based on what? That really is cherry picking! neither the UKMO or ECMFW show that happening at the timeframe you claim?

 

 

but if we're cherry picking the GFS then yes, you're right:

 

 

The move from ECM towards the UKMO has made me sit up. I was, like many, expecting a deterioration by next Friday and for warmth (i.e. 20C plus) never to get established. But I remember one of my golden forecasting rules is - if the ECM and UKMO are more like each other than the GFS, that's where to put my money. UKMO suggests nothing but a very warm end to next week and the ECM now is possibly the same. Sure, the ECM has been yo-yoing a bit, but UKMO has been extremely consistent. If the pattern is repeated tomorrow morning by these models, we might need to start rewriting next weekend's forecast.