Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[Cloud 10]

The 8-14 dayer from NOAA seems to be in the UK trough camp,although very little confidence for the forecast.

 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: WELL BELOW AVERAGE, 1 OUT OF 5,  DUE A WEAK ANOMALY PATTERN AND DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL  TEMPERATURE TOOLS. 

[knocker]

Tonight's anomalies are not in complete agreement over the trough the weekend after next. The GEFs is slightly more bullish than the ECM or NOAA so there remains doubt on the extent of LP over NW Europe. So basically it's a toss up between this and the influence of the Azores ridge.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

[joggs]

All i know is we receive winter synoptic looking charts(easy on the eye)in summer and vice versa lol.i wonder if people around the world get as frustrated as we do(those looking for the right synoptics at the right time of year).

[joggs]

Also(cant posts charts on phone)re last post page 9.East and west coast usa high pressure dominated and poor old us with lower pressure,arctic,south(may or may not come to fruition!).Imo more often than not we seem to have the oposite weather(freely speaking)to n America.In winter they seem to be in deep freeze feeding the jet for us and now(from the charts above )suggest summery ne usa and arctic sourced air for us,ableit high sun.

[Cheshire Freeze]

This would be some potent N'ly for mid June...-5 uppers not far from touching N Scotland

 

 

 

GFS hinting at air frosts just a week from the solstice

 

Edited June 5, 2015 by CreweCold

[Captain Shortwave]

So the GFS goes into the ..... erm .... fridge, the UKMO on the other hand looks likely to produce some very warm or even hot weather.

Cut-off low over Biscay with a ridge stretching up from southern Europe into the UK with the winds backing south of east.

 

The output is a bit of a mess at the moment with microscale features having potentially a massive impact based on where they end up.

[Cheshire Freeze]

So the GFS goes into the ..... erm .... fridge, the UKMO on the other hand looks likely to produce some very warm or even hot weather.

Cut-off low over Biscay with a ridge stretching up from southern Europe into the UK with the winds backing south of east.

 

The output is a bit of a mess at the moment with microscale features having potentially a massive impact based on where they end up.

 

GFS goes on to look very familiar....most probably at the poorer end of the ensembles though.

 

 

If this GFS run came off, at face value this June would be significantly below average temperature wise. It's one of the most -NAO June runs I've seen.

Edited June 5, 2015 by CreweCold

[knocker]

Latest EC32 update.

 

Firstly it has the upper trough feeding down from the pole and slack LP over France next weekend.bringing slightly lower than average temps.

 

But it is quite transitory as low pressure over the Pole eases and and the Azores ridge builds slowly from the SW and warmer air arrives with temps slightly above normal by the 24th.

 

This ridging never becomes dominant and with the HP centred to the SW and low pressure over Greenland a slack zonal flow ensues mainly from the W/SW with temps around average more or less to the end of the run to the 6th July.

 

Summary

 

Apart from next weekend a fairly pleasant outlook with perhaps some warm weather in the third week of June

[knocker]

Looking a little closer at the way the GFS arrives at the cold period at the end of next week is quite interesting.

 

Thursday 12 there is a low over France 1013mb. By midnight friday a rather diffuse LP area with one centre 1010mb over Belgium. By 12 it's got it's act together with the deepening low Denmark with the resulting northerly airstream over the UK. In the next twelve hours it has deepened to 984mb over the Baltic and temps are way below average in the UK. Now I'm willing to wager a Cornish pasty that the ECM doesn't go along with this scenario.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited June 5, 2015 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS was showing this Northerly the other day for around the 13th.

 

[Polar Maritime]

 Now I'm willing to wager a Cornish pasty that the ECM doesn't go along with this scenario.

 

It's not a reflection, But it's trying. Pasty?

Edited June 5, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Captain Shortwave]

I've checked the bbc forecasts and there isn't much evidence of them backing the gfs output at all though you never know as it could all change. Think the cold atlantic is prohibiting warmth coming to our shores.

I certainly hope the UKMO is onto something with phasing those two lows over Biscay and pumping up some very warm air from the continent, frankly the rest of the model output this morning ranges from poor to frankly diabolical. The GFS occupying the latter. 

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY JUNE 5TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A trough of Low pressure will move East across the UK today followed by a fresher Westerly airflow for a time as pressure builds from the West tomorrow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Gradually becoming more settled with sunny spells and warm conditions for a time especially in the West befoe a more showery interlude develops by next weekend.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow blowing North over the UK currently. This turns to a more West to East flow as it moves North over the weekend and sets up North of the UK for a time next week. Later in the run the flow reignites in a SE flow from the Atlantic over Western Britain to NW Europe as a trough of Low pressure develops near the UK.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today looks less optimistic from a High pressure poin of view as after a spell of cool NE winds over the South and a lighter North drift over the North pressure falls through the middle of next week with showers developing to leave the second week with Low pressure over or close by to the UK either from a Northerly source and later a westerly one delivering spells of rain and showers in indifferent temperatures through the second half of the period.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run shows a different theory of arriving at the same place with a period of cool and bright weather under High pressure just to the west of the UK giving way to cool and unsettled, showery weather fuelled by a col upper pool of air to the SE by midweek next week and developing a Low pressure which delivers unsettled conditions off and on for the rest of the period with a short period of more settled conditions at the start of the second week before low pressure close to the SE returns cool and showery weather across the South and east once more.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show the likelihoods of a trough of Low pressure close to the UK in 14 days time quite high with High pressure migrated more to the SW. There are a few members who cling on to High pressure closer by to the UK and also a few who show something even less wholesome than the majority pack this mroning.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO this morning looks rather better than GFS with High pressure close to the West early in the week with a relatively cool air mass over the UK slowly giving way to warmer conditions especially over the South as the High is shown to stradlle Northern Britain midweek with a warmer Easterly continental feed affecting the South in maintained dry and settled conditions.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure west of Ireland well in control in the latter stages this morning with a cool NE flow over the South and generally fine conditions for all.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today also shows High pressure controlling the UK weather over the next week building in from the West over the weekend. A cool NE feed affects the South for a time before the ridge largely cuts this flow off towards midweek. Then pressure is shown to leak away as the High recedes away West and SW with Low pressure to the North extending cool air and a slack unstable and potentially showery Northerly airflow developing across all areas by the end of the run.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM clings on to the High pressure area to the west of the UK with it's ridge across the Britain until the end of next week at least with the same weather pattern as the other models shown to occur through the week. The end frames of the run do show a slow fall of pressure at the end of the run with a NW flow becoming established across the UK by next weekend.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM looks like going the same way as much of the output this morning with High pressure early next week keeping things dry if never overly warm before pressure falls later with showers developing, first towards the SE then elsewhere too as Low pressure troughs feed across Britain from the NW too later next week. The end days of the run do show an improvement again as High pressure reuilds from the SW.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart continues it's slow decline from run to run as it brings a slow return of a Low pressure trough close to or over the UK with at least the risk of showers in largely average temperatures by Day 10.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend has very much swung towards a more unsettled and showery interlude at least to develop across the UK late next week.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.7 pts followed by UKM at 95.5 pts and GFS at 95.1. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS with 85.2 over GFS's's 81.3 pts with UKMO at 81.2. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 51.1 over 44.1. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 31.7 pts to 22.5 pts.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS Though the fine weather prospects for the next 7 days remain as were so to speak our thoughts become more and more transfixed towards the increasing spread between the output of a change to lower pressure again from the North or NE late next week or over the weekend as the High to the West declines and recedes back SW or West. The problem seems to arise from a cold pool of air which slips SW over the South late in the weekend or start to next week which no onger slips away South over France and Portugal but returns NE close to the SE as a new born Low pressure area fuelling showers for the SE. At the same time pressure falls elsewhere too and Low pressure, albeit in a largely slack form increases the risk of rain and showers too almost anywhere by the end of next week. Though some warm weather will inevitably be felt for some the mostly NE feed will maintain a cool feel for some with exposure and night's could be unusually cool for early June under clear skies and grass frost cannot be ruled out. Looking further out still into Week 2 the jury remains out on whether the more showery phase is just a blip before High pressure rebuilds such as ECM suggests this morning by Day 10. So with low confidence on anything beyond day 7 we have to work through a High pressure period which although never ideally placed to give high summer weather does at least give a dry and bright period next week with temperatures pleasant by day but cold by night before showers develop later on in the week. Thereafter, more runs are needed on the longer term outlook with a 50/50 chance currently of a pendulum swing towards either continuing showery weather or a return to High pressure based conditions hopefully better positioned next time to deliver more guaranteed warmer weather than next weeks version.

 

Next update from 08:00 Saturday June 6th 2015

[knocker]

It's not a reflection, But it's trying. Pasty?

 

Now now PM, The ECM is quite different. It has the French LP by Friday 06 popping into the North Sea then dissipates it. It then whizzes a little LP in from the west bringing quite wet conditions Friday night Saturday morning.with temps just below average. This, by now diffuse area of low pressure, moves into the North Sea bring very short lived northerlies before NWs set in from the Azores high. A quite different scenario than that of the GFS. I'll settle for Melton Mowbray.

[coldcomfort]

Well despite the presence of HP for close to a week the overall cool pattern looks set to continue, with the latest 10 day anom showing means of 1 to 4c below normal across the next 10 days from Jonny Scroats to Lands End. http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html 

 

Unless we see a significant warm up during the 2nd half of June, which doesn't look very likely at present, this could turn out to be a very cool month indeed.

 

As is typical in this neck of the woods, we still manage to be anomolously cool when Moscow is in a heatwave or also anomolously cool...

Edited June 5, 2015 by coldcomfort

[knocker]

There is little agreement between this morning's GEFS and ECM anomalies on the orientation of the LP over the Pole and the placement of the trough and Azores HP for next weekend. This means the interpretation of the surface analysis is different so little confidence at the moment. Also no point in looking further afield until this is sorted.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited June 5, 2015 by knocker

[William of Walworth]

I agree knocker. Too much uncertainty beyond next week. Certainly too much to 'write off' the second half of June at this early stage, and anyone betting on unsettled/cool trough-dominated conditions to persist right through to the end of the month would be overconfident I think.

.

 

I would like to see Tamara's latest thoughts on all this as well, she's great at analysing the bigger picture.. I'm away for the weekend very shortly. Should I bet on prospects/outlook looking quite different by Monday? Maybe I will ...

[mushymanrob]

Well despite the presence of HP for close to a week the overall cool pattern looks set to continue, with the latest 10 day anom showing means of 1 to 4c below normal across the next 10 days from Jonny Scroats to Lands End. http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html 

 

Unless we see a significant warm up during the 2nd half of June, which doesn't look very likely at present, this could turn out to be a very cool month indeed.

 

As is typical in this neck of the woods, we still manage to be anomolously cool when Moscow is in a heatwave or also anomolously cool...

 

'cool' is all reletive though, 1-4c below average for june is still very pleasant, especially in the strong sun. plus its looking mainly dry under high pressure, so all in all its alot better then many previous early junes.

as for the second half of june.... who knows! theres educated guesses from the knowlegable but even they wouldnt like to call that with any degree of certainty.

personally, this coolish pattern weve had on and off since march will break... i think theres a good chance that itll turn much warmer, as opposed to a washout... but thats an uneducated guess.

[Milhouse]

At least the GFS 6z wants to build high pressure in for the start of the following week, so its better than the abysmal 0z. But still the GFS is sticking with the idea of a very disappointing cool weekend. But theres so much uncertainty.

 

[summer blizzard]

6z is nice in FI but in the near term... Geronimo!

 

[Milhouse]

Wednesday of the coming week looks to be the day when the cool air finally gets taken over by warmer air and we loose the northerly airstream, albeit momentarily. So Wednesday-Friday look like delivering average temperatures, perhaps low 20s on Thursday.

 

Not a bad positioning of the high so some pleasant conditions to be had.

 

[Milhouse]

The GEFS mean also supporting a pressure rise from the SW so a cool northerly may be short lived.

 

[summer blizzard]

The GEFS mean also supporting a pressure rise from the SW so a cool northerly may be short lived.

 

 

To call 1015mb a pressure rise is stretching it a bit.

[Milhouse]

To call 1015mb a pressure rise is stretching it a bit.

 

But run the 6Z mean on and you will see the chart i posted is the start of a possible settled period with high pressure approaching from the SW.

[summer blizzard]

But run the 6Z mean on and you will see the chart i posted is the start of a possible settled period with high pressure approaching from the SW.

 

Ah, fair enough.