Storm & Convective Discussion - 12th June 2015 onwards

[VillagePlank]

This isn't classic plume development where we expect the fireworks to be underway by 3pm. The real cells, rain or t/storms are not due until 6pm, and carry on until midnight. Of course, GFS 12z will shed more light upon this, but, as has already been said, it really is early days. Besides, whilst the lack of heating may preclude home-grown storms (maybe 50/50 to a point, right now) there's still good chance, espectially SW England more widely all of Southern England of imports. If nothing has happened by sundown, then it's time for the post mortem.

Edited June 12, 2015 by Sparkicle

[Dami]

started off clear and sunny with a little high cloud, to clouds and sun, now completely overcast and drops of rain, clouds have that blue-ness that only stormy clouds have.

To those who can 'smell' something I would say that is a good thing. met someone holiday once who could smell storms and he wasn't wrong.

[matty40s]

Feeling very muggy, humid and oppressive in Northamptonshire with very light rain, sun still visible.

I think that we may see more this side of the M4 corridor than previously forecast.

[dave reid]

My public transport storm chase is underway (out for night in london) Bournemouth >shampton coach light rain with sun trying to break through. Sat waiting for coach to winchester feels very close

[Staffordshire]

Cheers guys, I'm thinking developments around 4pm, if I could pick a location, I think Aylesbury.

[stainesbloke]

Another thrilling day storm watching! .....zzzzzzz

[cobbett]

Light rain in Guildford about as exciting as its going to get down here i reckon

Yep its gunna be a big fat forecasting bust ! eggs face etc etc. There will of of course be a maddenesque escape clause due to one torrential downpour occuring somewhere in the UK  :-)

[Supacell]

Still sat just east of Oxford with roads to West London, the northern Home Counties, Newbury, Swindon, Cheltenham and Reading. Not sure where to head so going to stay put and eat :-)

[Dean E]

This isn't classic plume development where we expect the fireworks to be underway by 3pm. The real cells, rain or t/storms are not due until 6pm, and carry on until midnight. Of course, GFS 12z will shed more light upon this, but, as has already been said, it really is early days. Besides, whilst the lack of heating may preclude home-grown storms (maybe 50/50 to a point, right now) there's still good chance, espectially SW England more widely all of Southern England of imports. If nothing has happened by sundown, then it's time for the post mortem.

 

I believe this is what people are missing, there was always going to be two chances for storms today, home grown ones and then imports, both really kicking off after around 3pm/4pm. One part that was incorrect was the morning storms that were forecast in some areas, but due to left over mess from last nights storms, there has been a cap on any daytime heating.

 

We've still got the humid feed for a good 12 hours yet and at least 5 hours or so of heating available not only here but in France too. 

 

All the ingredient are there, we just need that spark. When that will come, will be anyones guess!

[Buckster]

hot and humid in Essex

 

lovely weather

[Nick L]

It is revoltingly humid out there.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

hot and humid in Essex

 

lovely weather

 

Me to love it 

[Buckster]

lots of blue sky now too 

 

with definate mid-level instability visible

 

go go

[Azazel]

not sure if related really but I have a banging headache.

 

Last time i had a headache like this was on my last day on holiday in France last summer and that evening we had an EPIC storm. Fingers crossed

[Buckster]

dehydration prob ! 

[snowprincesspboro]

Getting too muggy out here now, most of the blue sky has disappeared but through the thin milky clouds I can see a few building, somethings gotto give soon, it's far too humid feeling for it to not xx

[thunderhead 2005]

You guys are too impatient, back in the 90's storms didn't kick off until 6pm at the earliest, normally French imports where not until 8pm.

 

it's only 14:46 and many times things explode un-expected. we have rain which is a good sign, but it's very elevated give it until it least 6.30pm. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Small developments starting south of Ely and towards Huntingdon. Currently about to set off chasing!

[UKSupercell]

not sure if related really but I have a banging headache.

 

Last time i had a headache like this was on my last day on holiday in France last summer and that evening we had an EPIC storm. Fingers crossed

 

It is the Gods warning to us all, Thor is beating his hammer at this moment. Beware. 

Edited June 12, 2015 by UKSupercell

[dave reid]

The line of activity leaving northern france...is that the cold front?

[Carl46Wrexham]

not sure if related really but I have a banging headache.

 

Last time i had a headache like this was on my last day on holiday in France last summer and that evening we had an EPIC storm. Fingers crossed

Take an aspirin ya martyr!

[Azazel]

dehydration prob ! 

 

Youre probably right, although i do try to drink a lot of water, especially when the weather is warm and these headaches seem a little more intense than a regular dehydration headache.

 

who knows:p

 

this cloud really needs to do one, pleaseeee

[thunderhead 2005]

Keep an eye out for any activity between the warm/cold front that's where the highest cape will be, and I estimate that is where the storms will be around IOW / Brighton south of it.

[Supacell]

Cell to the SW of London could produce, and heading directly for me. Fingers are crossed.

Agree on humidity too, currently 22c with dp of 17c...sweaty.

[stainesbloke]

Well at least it's warm (25C here) under the cloud...any breaks the temp will shoot up