Storm & Convective Discussion - 12th June 2015 onwards

[STORMGUY]

Its colder outside now than it has been all winter.

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Finally something other than white clouds trying to bubble up now 

 

[BrickFielder]

 With this type of event now casting is usually the best option.However modelling can sometimes show up the broader details. What we should be looking for in our now casting is convergence zones setting up across the UK.


 This should help with moisture pooling which will drive higher dew points. I think this is more likely to be the trigger than actual temperatures.


 Another detail to look for today is a low level Jet. This Jet is in marked contrast to winds above it. There is also divergence at the mid level.

 500hpa humidty charts sugest some potential for the south and east anglia later on as well.


 Oh well back to now casting.

 

[Neilsouth]

Lots of altocumulus coming up from the south east

[Azazel]

Keep an eye out for any activity between the warm/cold front that's where the highest cape will be, and I estimate that is where the storms will be around IOW / Brighton south of it.

 

Good day fellow Andover resident! (im not actually from Andover but have worked there most of my working life:) )

[Snowshine]

 Today sucks.

[Nick L]

 Today sucks.

 

Thanks for that informative post.

[Cyclonic]

I wrote this yesterday in the regional chat and i still hold to those words

 

Posted by Cyclonic on Yesterday, 16:54 in Regional Discussions

Hi guys, been a while since posted on here, or even had an interest in weather (enjoying my 1st Grandchild)

Anyway, hope your all good and well..

As for the storms, have any of you ever had that funny feeling it will throw the unexpected at you, and take you by surprise....well thats how im feeling lol...

Edited June 12, 2015 by Cyclonic

[Andy Bown]

You guys are too impatient, back in the 90's storms didn't kick off until 6pm at the earliest, normally French imports where not until 8pm.

 

it's only 14:46 and many times things explode un-expected. we have rain which is a good sign, but it's very elevated give it until it least 6.30pm. 

Hear hear you took the words out of my mouth! I can recall so many evenings/nights where storms kicked off after either hot sunny days or indeed muggy overcast days like today.

 

Back in the pre internet/radar/satellite days nobody could access all manner of data and get frustrated at nothing occurring when all along Mother Nature knew what she was doing!

 

How anyone can call it a bust or give up before 15.00 is utterly beyond me!

[Gordon Webb]

 With this type of event now casting is usually the best option.However modelling can sometimes show up the broader details. What we should be looking for in our now casting is convergence zones setting up across the UK.

lowwind17.png

 This should help with moisture pooling which will drive higher dew points. I think this is more likely to be the trigger than actual temperatures.

sbcape17.pngdewpoint17.png

 Another detail to look for today is a low level Jet. This Jet is in marked contrast to winds above it. There is also divergence at the mid level.

925wind.png700wind.png500wind.png

 500hpa humidty charts sugest some potential for the south and east anglia later on as well.

500humidty15.png500humdity17.png500humidty19.png

 Oh well back to now casting.

 

cloudprecip15.pngcloudprecip17.pngcloudprecip19.png

 

looking at those last 3 charts not much expected until late evening

[thunderhead 2005]

Hear hear you took the words out of my mouth! I can recall so many evenings/nights where storms kicked off after either hot sunny days or indeed muggy overcast days like today.

 

Back in the pre internet/radar/satellite days nobody could access all manner of data and get frustrated at nothing occurring when all along Mother Nature knew what she was doing!

 

How anyone can call it a bust or give up before 15.00 is utterly beyond me!

 

If I had to guess everyone should be looking at the radar south of the IOW and Brighton towards Le Harve & Cean. the low is circling anticlockwise so this high cloud will slowly move W/NW.

[Serendipity]

It isn't muggy here, I just walked to the shop in a T shirt and was cold!

[Heisenberg]

 Today sucks.

Yes, yes it does.....but tonight might not.....we live in hope

[Biggin]

Its colder outside now than it has been all winter.

Sure. What temp you got -3 ??

[cobbett]

Hear hear you took the words out of my mouth! I can recall so many evenings/nights where storms kicked off after either hot sunny days or indeed muggy overcast days like today.

 

Back in the pre internet/radar/satellite days nobody could access all manner of data and get frustrated at nothing occurring when all along Mother Nature knew what she was doing!

 

How anyone can call it a bust or give up before 15.00 is utterly beyond me!

Thats because the forecast has changed quite dramatically - these Tstorms are now being pushed back until early eve now (if at all) and with what was originally on offer it will be a disappointment - carol K and 'Humdingers' lol

[Daniel*]

Happy to say there's some break in this cloud currently sitting at 26.3C with high humidity.

[Tom Jarvis]

Lightning maps has gone down

[STORMGUY]

Now raining here.

[Wilxy]

Just started to rain. 18.9°C DP 14°C

[thunderhead 2005]

Thats because the forecast has changed quite dramatically - these Tstorms are now being pushed back until early eve now (if at all) and with what was originally on offer it will be a disappointment - carol K and 'Humdingers' lol

Patient my friend,

 

Thundery rain is to the SW france as it drags up that's where the instability will be, just to the N/NE of it.

[tomp456]

Few breaks in the cloud appearing, temp 21.1 & rising, 91% humidity 

[Mapantz]

Lightning maps has gone down

[Paul]

Don't forget - the no storms thread is available for those who want to have a moan about not having storms, rather than filling this thread with them

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80888-the-no-storms-club-july-2014-onwards/

[Noahjoe]

We have a DP of 19 now according to the local weather station...just over 20C with 93% humidity

[chillyblast]

Light rain here now, still very humid.