Storm & Convective Discussion - 12th June 2015 onwards

[Gordon Webb]

What forecasts said this? The M.O blog update yesterday looks like it might be on the money,rainfall being the real issue in the West Country and the best chance of a Severe thunderstorm in SE England,even then the wording was scattered or isolated.

 

doesn't explain the BBC graphics though , if they get there info from the met office then someone at BBC weather went overboard with their colored pen

[Azazel]

F.L.O.P.

[Grazy2266]

Looks like the Southeast may now get something, see you just can't call these situations lol. Let's hope they make it across the channel.

 

Raining now here in Aylesbury.

[Buckster]

looks like the storms over Calais are organising themselves

[Stormraider]

William Grimsley, on 12 Jun 2015 - 16:31, said:

I can't believe this. What a total mess up on the forecast. I am totally angry and annoyed at all these charts and forecast that predicted today that everyone would see thunderstorms. No one has even seen one yet and all I'm getting right now is cruddy crap rain, no thunder, no lightning, NOTHING! I hope the BBC get sued for this!

I believe this post belongs in the No Storms Club section... As it's already been stated, forecasters cannot get it right 100% of the time. They work hard to give us a general idea of what weather to expect. Weather will do whatever it likes. Storms are extremely hard to predict at the best of times, a set up like this is no exception. If you want guaranteed storms day in day out, move to the tropics...

[Nick L]

In all seriousness folks, can we please cut out the "toys out of pram" posts? Some members of the forum would like to read meaningful discussion, not whiny posts because you haven't seen 5 supercells in the past hour.

Edited June 12, 2015 by Nick L

[Methuselah]

F.L.O.P.

Not exactly 'Plumageddon'!

[Captain Shortwave]

Maybe it would be best to call this a bust tomorrow morning instead of mid afternoon today

Showers pushing into the Channel and Dover straight now, who has a bet that by 6pm there will be thunderstorms here just in time for my shift.....

[Spikecollie]

Remember we were talking about late evening...it's not there yet - call a bust after 2200. You can complain only after then!

[Sainsbo]

It's quite easy to blame the BBC and MetO when you forget they have to rely on predictions from supercomputers in the first place.

 

The atmosphere is a very chaotic environment, of course they aren't going to be right every time. It's the possibility that one day I might not be disappointed with the forecast and actually get a good storm that keeps me interested in the first place

[cheese]

Wow, you can tell there's thunderstorms on the way when 6 people post at once, lol.

[IanR]

why is it so hard to get  decent multicell storms tracking north like in the good old days,  they just dont work anymore,  i blame vapour trailling and chemi trailing  , looked like they were out in force this morning

[sunnijim]

Well, the wording on BBC forecast this morning said widespread thunderstorm for SW England I'm sure. Only 2.8 mm of rain fallen here which I wouldn't call a lot.

Maybe in the run up to this 'event' the usual hysteria was breaking out around cape values/wind shear etc and all us amueter enthusiasts here concluded that storm wise this time it maybe a more 'Western event' than last weeks? Not sure the UKMO ever bought into that idea though,the blog yesterday also made us aware of the usual uncertainty of these situations.

[UKSupercell]

To be honest, the metoffice's forecasting accuracy over the last 6-12 months, from what I have seen, has been woeful. 

Keep hoping though guys, there is some activity in France possibly coming our way. 

Right now: It's humid as hell and just rained very lightly here, very strong rainy smell in air. 

[Summer Sun]

Don't give up yet folks the 2 areas I've circled are heading towards the UK

 

[Wet'n'Dry]

why is it so hard to get  decent multicell storms tracking north like in the good old days,  they just dont work anymore,  i blame vapour trailling and chemi trailing  , looked like they were out in force this morning

Yeah, and the Feds were responsible for the twin towers 

[Snowshine]

I think London and the South East of England are most likely to get a decent thunderstorm... despite not being in the highest warning zone.

 

I would probably be mad if I were placed in the highest warning zone; there has not been a single thunderstorm in that area and a 'Level 2' warning is rare in the UK.

[Mesoscale]

Seriously, its only the weather.

Sorry but for some people its a lot more than just weather haha.

[Azores Hi]

Don't give up yet folks the 2 areas I've circled are heading towards the UK

 

Yep. I can see the tops of these storms. heading my way.

[mhielte]

I think London and the South East of England are most likely to get a decent thunderstorm... despite not being in the highest warning zone.

 

I would probably be mad if I were placed in the highest warning zone; there has not been a single thunderstorm in that area and a 'Level 2' warning is rare in the UK.

 It's worth noting the Level 2 was issued for high rainfall totals, which could still happen given the mass of rain exiting northern France and tracking NNW over the coming hours.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Well I'm content Mrs and beers just turned up.. Lmfao oi oi

Storms come to London now plesse (and the lovely folk out West)

[Wet'n'Dry]

The storm approaching the South coast from Bologne has a more Easterly component to it. If it survives it's going to blast through central Kent then West Essex then who know where?

[sunnijim]

Don't give up yet folks the 2 areas I've circled are heading towards the UK

 

The eastern edge of the cold front looks quite electrical too,rather a busted flush electricly wise further west at this stage.

[Bolt from the Blue]

Need the sun to break through if anything home grown is to appear... Only other chance is an import and we all know what happens to them!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Well I'm in-situ in Windlesham with options to go west or South or south-East . I have a beer and a delicious chicken and bacon salad (thank you chickens - thank you pigs!).

So I'm ready for storms if they arrive early or late. even if they don't come at all!

I feel William's pain tho if storms haven't happened when people in the know suggest they will - but practice control of enthusiasm (like I did this week) and you won't be as disappointed when you don't get the goods.

Think the evening / overnight potential is still spot-on (was half-expecting the earlier stuff to be a bust anyway).

Was out let night down at Butser overlooking Pompey and IOW and there was a lot of action far far away from the decaying storms. I really thought we were onto something. Still was nice to see though.

On another point - I use various sites as reference for storm forecasts but I find Estofex is usually the most reliable - and they are forecasting some awesome weather tonight - so it's still all to play for!