Storm & Convective Discussion - 12th June 2015 onwards

[Chris K]

For those of us further west - i think we need to keep an eye on this blob moving up (circled):

 

 

 

[Buckster]

I think that blob to the west of France will end up just a mess of very heavy rain with a bit of maybe thunder thrown in

 

its hardly electrical as it is - and thats on other side of channel

[jamesthemonkeh]

Is it just me or do the storms heading for Kent seem to be increasingly veering westwards?

[Chris K]

I think that blob to the west of France will end up just a mess of very heavy rain with a bit of maybe thunder thrown in

 

its hardly electrical as it is - and thats on other side of channel

 

But with other factors coming into play later It could become electrical...the channel isn't a sudden killer of all storms - doesn't matter how often it seems the case. Especially if they become elevated.

[Guest]

Check out this webcam grab of the clouds approaching Kent! Super-seller characteristic to the left side

 

http://www.wunderground.com/webcams/ironeagleuk/1/show.html

[VillagePlank]

I have to say I am a little disheartened.

All of the forecasts suggested that with daytime heating localised storms would spark off at starting around 6pm. Is it 6pm, yet? We say 6pm because that's the start of the four hour global model time frame.

The reason it is 6pm is because there is convective inhibition on ALL the forecasts nominally due to detritus from yesterday. CIN will be low enough with minimal heating to be broken from, you guessed it, 6pm.

Even if we don't spark homegrown ones - and remember the convective forecasts went for silly amounts of convective rain, not hail, not strong winds, not frequent lightning, not MCS', not tornadoes, we have the second bite of the cherry with French imports.

I wouldn't even bother to look at the radar until, you guessed it once again, 6pm.

Oh, and if you think you can do better than the MetO, you are going to be very very wealthy

[Arnie Pie]

A band of heavier showers are begining to organize themselves to the SW of Birmingham

evident on Sat24

[Lauren]

If LightningMaps is accurate the strikes are no more across the Channel.

[SnowJoke]

If LightningMaps is accurate the strikes are no more across the Channel.

 Lightning maps real time is down. Fails to load any strikes later than 20min mark. use Netweather lightning overlay.

[Homerr]

Losing hope but not entirely... it's still very warm and very humid here so we might still get something

[ChezWeather]

If LightningMaps is accurate the strikes are no more across the Channel.

It must be down right now

[Dami]

http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en&page_0=12

 

This one is still showing strikes,  Real-time lightning map shows nothing ( to me)

[Daniel*]

If LightningMaps is accurate the strikes are no more across the Channel.

Spoke too soon.

[poseidon]

Been murky for most of the day but in the last 2 hours sun has been out full bore. Car was showing 26 degs on the way back home.

The storms in the North sea/channel not looking overly eager to cross currently.

Edited June 12, 2015 by poseidon

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Their programmes are crap too. They should scrap that advert on News 24 when they say that  they can forecast the weather for the next 10 days with great accuracy thanks to their expertise In fairness models should not be taken literally to the last detail, they are showing the most likely scenario, it's open to change regarding the detail, right down to the last few hours. The models got the scenario correct, but showers are hard to pin down. Saying that, it's ******* drizzling here. My Argos weather station £5.99, has been saying 'heavy rain' since last night and I have drizzle. If Argos can't predict the weather correctly then nobody can. I think the met office computers cost a little more than my gizmo though. The drizzle is getting torrential here

 

I think someone already did that.

"If Argos can't predict the weather correctly then nobody can"

I actually think that might become my new signature :-D

[Guest]

Looks like the lightening is dying out on the French system.

 

I can surmise that since we haven't had a prolonged hot spell plus its early summer, the water in the Channel is relatively cool. This will put pay to the intense convection that charged this lot up over the landmass. Hence my earlier comment that quite often French weather stalls over the channel. It simply looses its source of power and dies off.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

The late sun is cooking the air :-D

I'm currently sitting in a golf club car park near Ripley and I'm not a member - but I'm just a rebel without a cause - apart from the cause to watch thunderstorms cause.

I reckon Dorking is probably a goer but then again I could jump on the M25 and venture further East...

[VillagePlank]

Looks like the lightening is dying out on the French system.

 

I can surmise that since we haven't had a prolonged hot spell plus its early summer, the water in the Channel is relatively cool. This will put pay to the intense convection that charged this lot up over the landmass. Hence my earlier comment that quite often French weather stalls over the channel. It simply looses its source of power and dies off.

Not true. They can't be sustained due to CIN over southern England. That erodes from, you guessed it, 6pm

[Hirudine]

It's starting to feel right here. I know that's totally unscientific but it does feel like it's getting ready to burst, maybe in an hour or two?

[Snowshine]

I have to say I am a little disheartened.

All of the forecasts suggested that with daytime heating localised storms would spark off at starting around 6pm. Is it 6pm, yet? We say 6pm because that's the start of the four hour global model time frame.

The reason it is 6pm is because there is convective inhibition on ALL the forecasts nominally due to detritus from yesterday. CIN will be low enough with minimal heating to be broken from, you guessed it, 6pm.

Even if we don't spark homegrown ones - and remember the convective forecasts went for silly amounts of convective rain, not hail, not strong winds, not frequent lightning, not MCS', not tornadoes, we have the second bite of the cherry with French imports.

I wouldn't even bother to look at the radar until, you guessed it once again, 6pm.

Oh, and if you think you can do better than the MetO, you are going to be very very wealthy

 

There is still 15 minutes before 6pm, and the far South East looks to be the storm hotspot.

[Methuselah]

Bugger! It was a Kawasaki firing-up!

 

It wasn't El Floppio that's for certain.

Edited June 12, 2015 by Ed Stone

[VillagePlank]

It's starting to feel right here. I know that's totally unscientific but it does feel like it's getting ready to burst, maybe in an hour or two?

That's the spirit. Grab a beer and enjoy the up and downs of a very interesting meteorological evening

[Bristawl Si]

Nowt here. The only rumble i hear is from my tum - c'mon love, hurry up and get home from work so we can have our m&s dine in for two meal deal.

[VillagePlank]

There is still 15 minutes before 6pm, and the far South East looks to be the storm hotspot.

South west still looks good for convective potential, from 6pm, according to vertical velocity charts.

Essentially all CIN gets eroded and the hypothetical parcel of air travels fast to 500hPa.

[thunderhead 2005]

iv'e done some research, i don't think the sea temperature plays a part because since 1990's the sea temperature has increased not decreased, maybe other things are why these things die off?

 

http://www.ukcip.org.uk/wordpress/wp-content/PDFs/UKCP09_Trends.pdf

Edited June 12, 2015 by thunderhead 2005