Storm & Convective Discussion - 12th June 2015 onwards

[Supacell]

Why I realise waiting for storms can be stressful and lead to disappointment a lot of the posts over the last few pages are a) to premature as it is only 11:45 and b) more suited to the no storms thread. Come on people, chins up. If by 8pm there is nothing I will join you all with the disappointments.

[Luke Best]

Today will be a Katie Price-esque bust. Seen it all before with this set up. Last night's extensive development has spoilt today's potential.

Let me eat my words. Please!

[Chris K]

If it helps, a convergence zone does not really set up until post 1500hrs going by the GFS 6z. This stretches from S Wales down through C/S England.

 

This could help with storm development.

Edited June 12, 2015 by Chris K

[VillagePlank]

At this stage, I think it's looking up (at least for SE)

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82621-southeast-england-east-anglia-weather-chat-1st-march-onwards/?p=3213464

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82621-southeast-england-east-anglia-weather-chat-1st-march-onwards/?p=3213541

Edited June 12, 2015 by Sparkicle

[Mesoscale]

im happy for now as my mother brought some ice creams round to my house, I am feeling like im in a good position. we shall see.

[Darren Bown]

Well I don't know what the conditions are like on the south coast, but looking south-east from here, there's barely a cloud in the sky. It's already 23C here in Manchester.

 

20150612_112711.jpg

 

Furthermore, it isn't solely heating from the sun that creates thunderstorms. They can also be created through wind convergence, orographic lifting, and frontal movements to name a few. There's plenty of opportunity today.

 

There is quite a bit of cold air undercutting this humid air also isn't there? Which would be another significant factor.

(Reading all the posts above) Let's just say that we just don't know what's going to happen at this stage  

Edited June 12, 2015 by Darren Bown

[snowwonder]

Here in Luton it is clear blue sunny skies. Feeling more humid. Breeze picking up too. No murk here.

[Costa Del Fal]

How on earth has this become a Midland/SE event as usual? Not really surprised but this event really favoured us down here till yesterday! Annoyed isn't the word. Just some light to moderate rain this afternoon then!

[stainesbloke]

Quite cloudy here, need that sun to break through!! Come on!!!

[Spikecollie]

Hang in there, it'll be slow, like yesterday. Sun's just coming out over here and it's warming up nicely - think mid-afternoon for things to get going.

[Nick L]

ECM shows some decent thunderstorm activity later this afternoon/evening for the M4 corridor.

 

And this morning was never going to see widespread crystal clear skies like yesterday, this was forecast.

Edited June 12, 2015 by Nick L

[Staffordshire]

How on earth has this become a Midland/SE event as usual? Not really surprised but this event really favoured us down here till yesterday! Annoyed isn't the word. Just some light to moderate rain this afternoon then!

midlands and the SE? Try S Wales, and the Home Counties.

[UKSupercell]

I was thinking this after I posted it would nudge the red box slightly further north to cover more northern counties 

 

Where I feel IF a storm fires to the south of that it could potentially be pretty severe as it passes through this region 

 

Ah right, ok thanks for that. Here's hoping! 

Just been out in Slough, Berks - about 45 - 60 mins ago it rained lightly, big drops. Sky very murky. Who knows what could materialise later? 

[thunderhead 2005]

The Main event wont be until 3-8pm, maximum cape values and higher risk.

[A.J]

I see glass half full and glass half empty posts in here......to put things into perspective, for surface based convection, looking at the Skew-T's and other parameters, we're looking at around 22C for initiation regardless of cloud cover. For us under the so called 'sweet spot' it's borderline whether we'll reach those temps due to Ac mid-level cloud cover...the caveat is that there are other forcing mechanisms in play to help initiation such as surface wind convergence to name one, but yes, given the capping at the 850hpa boundary, the cloud cover is an issue.

 

There is an opportunity for another bite of the cherry, so to speak, as elevated CAPE & buoyancy together with decent lapse rates gives the opportunity for elevated storms to develop above the 850hpa boundary both this afternoon and this evening

 

so in summary, yes the cloud cover is a concern, but does not preclude the development of thunderstorms for southern England 

[Arnie Pie]

Blue skies here in Birmingham with thicker cloud moving into our west

Temps still rising

Any eyes on the ppn to the S of Brum ?

[VillagePlank]

The Main event wont be until 3-8pm, maximum cape values and higher risk.

 

And later in that period as a low pressure channel settles in all across southern England (which in my view is the crucial feature, here)

 

[VillagePlank]

I see glass half full and glass half empty posts in here......to put things into perspective, for surface based convection, looking at the Skew-T's and other parameters, we're looking at around 22C for initiation regardless of cloud cover. For us under the so called 'sweet spot' it's borderline whether we'll reach those temps due to Ac mid-level cloud cover...the caveat is that there are other forcing mechanisms in play to help initiation such as surface wind convergence to name one, but yes, given the capping at the 850hpa boundary, the cloud cover is an issue.

 

There is an opportunity for another bite of the cherry, so to speak, as elevated CAPE & buoyancy together with decent lapse rates gives the opportunity for elevated storms to develop above the 850hpa boundary both this afternoon and this evening

 

so in summary, yes the cloud cover is a concern, but does not preclude the development of thunderstorms for southern England 

 

And, of course, small amounts of CIN and reasonable amounts of surface heating (as you say 22C) *enhance* the final thunderstorms.

[A.J]

And, of course, small amounts of CIN and reasonable amounts of surface heating (as you say 22C) *enhance* the final thunderstorms.

yes, the loaded gun scenario is the capping.....reach 22C and the cap will go, and bingo

[MP-R]

Wahey - we have drizzle here! 

[VillagePlank]

And, for those in S Wales/Bristol area, look at the gift mother-nature is promising,

 

 

All the way up!!

[Serendipity]

After a cloudy start and then a sunny breakout, we now have thick cloud again.

[legritter]

Past experience says hang on in there ,yes its frustrating watching the radar and what i,m trying to do is keep away from the radar for a few hours .

i

,m pretty sure it will all kick off later this afternoon and some locations will get some good storm action and locally some high rainfall totals overnight .

i,v known total cloud cover but still finished with a good storm .

best of luck for all ,currently light spots of rain here ,cheers all .

[Heisenberg]

midlands and the SE? Try S Wales, and the Home Counties.

Is it? Someone might want to tell my Meto App that. Its now showing.....nothing, no rain, no Thunder, no nothing...other than cloud. I dont think anyone realy knows whats going to happen this time around.....this is harder to predict than snow lol

[Dale Hay]

Ugh, woke with sore eyes this morning - that's a first. Probably nothing to do with WX conditions mind.

Anyway, it's still cloudy here...

... hopefully things will change over the next few hours. *crosses fingers, toes and other bits*