Southeast England & East Anglia - Weather Chat >> 1st March Onwards

[Hodgheg]

Wow Chris Fawkes just ramped big time on local forecast feeling soupie ? With temps possibly hitting 29c with any sun then big storms affecting transport .

National forecast also said higher than 26 in the southeast and ramped up storm potential

Saw this too, even mentioned a few flashes of lightning over night. Im a bit skeptical of over enthusiastic weathermen. Still though its not looking bad tomorrow evening.

[Mesoscale]

Does anyone think that the band in the channel will make it this far north?

[stainesbloke]

Does anyone think that the band in the channel will make it this far north?

Is it a French band? In that case, I hope not!

Poor jokes aside, might see a few flashes and splashes later on but main risk is for tomorrow here. Get some decent sunny spells and could get some pretty severe storms! Could be totally wrong of course but I'm not going to stay up tonight, too tired anyway.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Storms making land fall.. Wow..

Didn't want this but hey ho they may still die out

[Mark wheeler]

Saw this too, even mentioned a few flashes of lightning over night. Im a bit skeptical of over enthusiastic weathermen. Still though its not looking bad tomorrow evening.

I know what you mean. If he is right though he could be our Guy Fawkes Lol

[Captain Shortwave]

Hazy sunshine to start here, hopefully the temperatures will rocket.

[k66yla]

Where's the sun this morning? Just seen the local weather forecast, have to say the storms don't look promising for this part of Kent. But from experience it always seems to be the opposite of what they forecast, so it should be a good show this evening.

[Captain Shortwave]

Still looking very warm today

 

The best temperature predictions on the day I have seen, hopefully the high cloud should thin out to let the sun through further south and help develop some thundery showers. The NMM model also still looks positive on the storm front with good cape values at the mid-levels and also surface levels in the west of the region.

[Biggin]

A tad cloudy here atm.

 

Lot of cloud slowly visibly breaking up over France, Some Lightning in the Channel at this time off Brighton.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Stayed up with mates last night and watched those storms die out over the channel one kept going till about 3-4am I think of the coast of Kent hence the crud..

[Blessed Weather]

Oh that every morning in Summer was as lovely as it is here today! Blue skies and a pleasantly warm 16.6C at 08.00.

 

Well, thunderstorm wise, Carol on the Beeb has just said "there will be some humdingers about", so as Daniel posted last night, it's down to Radar watching now. Having said that, it seems quite a favourable (for us) adjustment on the NMM this morning, with the most unstable atmosphere now shifted east and over the SE corner of our patch at 17.00. Whatever, for those wanting a storm today, good luck!

 

 

P.S. I posted last night that Look East were saying only 14C for Sunday and Monday. Well this morning their forecast has it is up to 16C for both days! Consistent!

[k66yla]

Well the cloud does'nt look like shifting and now its raining hard :-/

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Well the cloud does'nt look like shifting and now its raining hard :-/

 

It is..

 

[Hodgheg]

It is..

 

cloud.jpg

Good to see the activity over France is now non existent. Thats ruined things so many times in the past. Recon it'll be blue skies in around an hour or so. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Good to see the activity over France is now non existent. Thats ruined things so many times in the past. Recon it'll be blue skies in around an hour or so. 

 

Yep would agree come lunch time and early afternoon we should start to see convective skys kick in as the heat destabilizes everything 

[Steve C]

Was going to post similar satellite picture. Looks good to me!

 

Mixed layer CAPE charts from NMM from midday till midnight, in 3 hourly steps. Again, all fine and dandy!

 

 

 

[k66yla]

The sun has finally decided to make an appereance, so fingers crossed.

[weathertoski]

Sun now breaking through here in Twickenham

[VillagePlank]

Skew-T for London Heathrow, tomorrow, 3pm from GFS 6z

 

03772_15061215_1106.gif

 

So, a moderately convective atmosphere (K=30) with likely thunderstorms, perhaps isolated severe thunderstorms in some places fueled by semi-juicy moisture content (Dewp = 16.8 ) PBL top is approx 975hPa and not much shear (although some is present - it will help) and/or wind speed in this layer, so breaking the cap (CIN=23) will require surface heating or other forcing (sea-breezes, convergence zones, imports) Should this be broken, storms will be (significantly) enhanced even in the marginally unstable atmosphere (LI = - 3 ) Any cells that form will have a silly amount of rain (PW = 3.38) or hail (CAPE = 769) in them

 

Skew-T for London Heathrow, today, 6pm from GFS 0z

 

 

A moderately convective potential (K=33) with likely thunderstorms (TT=47) fueled by semi-juicy moisture content (Dewp = 17.5) Some shear in PBL increases chances of convection trigger (but not that much) and cap (CIN=2, but earlier, CIN=28) is expected to erode due to diabatic heating, but other triggers may be present such as imports or cellular decay from N France. In the marginally unstable atmosphere (LI = -3) any cells that form will contain large amouts of rain (PW = 3.56) or hail (CAPE=772)

 

Change from quote above: thunderstorms more likely, severe thunderstorms less likely.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

London hotting up! Just got to central London and boy it's baking

[VillagePlank]

Sun starting to burn off early deritus here in Rochester, now.

[Captain Shortwave]

A brief cloudier spell, but now the sun is back out again. It looks like the south east will miss that bank of cloud out in the Bay of Biscay so we should be in with a chance.

[Steve C]

Met Office update.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=uk&from=rss&sn=A5C385DC-3885-E332-722C-DAA312C731C1_9_EE&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1434063600

 

The same area and matrix as yesterday, but the wording, to me, suggests something of a downgrade. 

Edited June 12, 2015 by Steve C

[VillagePlank]

Met Office update.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=uk&from=rss&sn=A5C385DC-3885-E332-722C-DAA312C731C1_9_EE&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1434063600

 

The same area and matrix as yesterday, but the wording, to me, suggests something of a downgrade. 

 

Yes, the chance of severe thunderstorms has subsided overnight quite a bit; still, thunderstorms are likely, just not necessarily 'humdingers' Localised low-level shear (in the PBL, which can act as a trigger), such as that created by orographic forcing may be the difference for severe storms, but very difficult to pick that out from model guidance. See my skew-t analysis above.

Edited June 12, 2015 by Sparkicle

[Steve C]

In more positive news, 24C at Lakenheath now and temperatures rising nicely on the near continent.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/current?LANG=en&CONT=ukuk&LAND=UK&REGION=0003&SORT=3&UD=0&INT=06&TYP=tmax&ART=kartealle&RUBRIK=akt&DATE=1434103200&CEL=C&SI=mph

Edited June 12, 2015 by Steve C