Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->

[Summer Sun]

What a glorious run from ECM

 

 

More runs like this please

[ANYWEATHER]

ECM op may be picking up the pattern that tamara mused about earlier. The building blocks for the stalling Atlantic trough laid early on in the run and the resulting plume reminiscent of what we saw a couple weeks ago.

Unfortunately , the Ecm Op is about as reliable as a Chocolate teapot    

[johnholmes]

Rare for the NOAA anomalies to be far out, although not been following as closely as usual being on holiday. Will take a look.

[johnholmes]

Rare for the NOAA anomalies to be far out, although not been following as closely as usual being on holiday. Will take a look.

Basically a westerly 500 flow which seems reasonable enough to me!

[Costa Del Fal]

Unfortunately , the Ecm Op is about as reliable as a Chocolate teapot    

Evidence?

[mushymanrob]

Good Evening Folks. Lots of unsettled weather to get through this week especially for the north. Ecm and Gfs disagree abruptly after this weekend with Gfs the cooler unsettled model, whilst Ecm  is an heatwave lover   I really don't believe any model this far out. but I would hope Ecm is right ,purely for selfish reasons....

Disagree.

Both current models show high pressure building and dominating after next weekend. They only differ in the positioning of the expected high.... So its looking hot and humid or hot/very warm and fresh....

Win, win.

[mushymanrob]

Basically a westerly 500 flow which seems reasonable enough to me!

Unfortunately for those of us hoping the ecm and gfs outputs in fi is an early sign of something hoped for, must take heed of this. If the noaa anomaly charts dont shift very soon to support the high pressure dominance the current gfs and ecm show.. It wont happen

[Winter Cold]

Problem is though all this is definately FI, we're talking 7 days + away so everything should be treated as only possible at the moment. At T240 range, nothing is certain. It does look like we might get a pressure rise after next weekend but position and therefore temperatures cant be confirmed yet.

 

ECM looks to give us a big warm up at the end tonight but GFS isnt having any of it. The trends are good though as next weekend was showing very unsettled and wet only a few runs ago and low pressure seems to have been deflected more north on these latest runs. Lets hope this continues and things dont swing back!

 

Nice charts from ECM tonight anyway

 

  

[summer blizzard]

Disagree.

Both current models show high pressure building and dominating after next weekend. They only differ in the positioning of the expected high.... So its looking hot and humid or hot/very warm and fresh....

Win, win.

 

I don't call that dominating..

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Evidence?

Just look at the op!!!   :rofl:      

[summer blizzard]

GEM also goes with GFS..

 

 

As did the 0z Euro mean..

 

[Captain Shortwave]

So this week, mixed weather with some warmth and some cooler conditions, a brief plume thrown in at the end of the working week.

The following week, despite the swings and roundabouts, I suspect it will be pretty similar with heights persisting over Europe with low pressure running east/north east across the north of the UK, so a boundary across the UK with hot weather over France and cooler Atlantic air trying to push back in from the west with neither getting the upper hand for more than a day or so.

More a hunch than anything else at the moment, I suspect the Scandi trough won't gain too much influence as again the models try to factor in low heights in the eastern Atlantic which will re-enforce the heat block over France/Spain/Italy. It would be nice to see the ECM being right but at the moment I suspect the dominance of the high in the UK region is being overdone, that said a plume event would certainly be on the cards again. It would be nice to get a deep trough going to our west to finally get the SW Europe heatwave going in a more widespread area.

[Yarmy]

Evidence?

 

 

The only objective evidence, namely verification statistics, shows that the ECMWF operational model is - irrefutably - the best in the history of numerical weather prediction. 

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM anomaly and 850s do suggest that the Euro high gets far enough north to take control of the weather in the south at the start of the following week, so very warm with some sunny spells here. If it comes off.

 

How far north can the jet get is the question.

 

GFS ens actually not that off this either

 

GEM suite is flatter with the Scandi trough exerting more influence.

 

As I stated earlier this is just one point in what I feel is a still rather mobile picture.

[Milhouse]

The ECM mean is supportive of a pressure rise from the SW beginning around day 6, not to the extent that the OP shows but it shows winds coming from a warm SW direction nevertheless.

 

[mushymanrob]

I don't call that dominating..

 

Now show the charts for the whole run and not one cherry picked chart to try to prove a dubious point.

[summer blizzard]

Now show the charts for the whole run and not one cherry picked chart to try to prove a dubious point.

Your comment related to early that week. Gem and GFS at least did not agree.

I'm not speculating beyond day 10 at the moment given the variable models.

[damianslaw]

Reliable timeframe its a mixed mobile affair, alebit under a rather sluggish atlantic set up. End result very typical summer weather, driest warmest sunniest conditions reserved for the SE, coolest wettest cloudiest weather in the NW - all preety text book with temps never straying too far from average, though holding up more so in the nights than the days.

 

As others have said, ECM is showing a change as we approach the weekend and start of the next week, with the atlantic trough digging deeper southwards thanks to the position of low heights exiting the USA on a more south east trajectory, enabling a strong ridge to build ahead from the SW pulling in continental warmth and allowing pronounced build of heights to our east, something we haven't seen yet this season, and a strong signal for a potential heatwave and longer lasting warm dry spell than the event of 1 July.

 

GFS though having none of it, with low heights taking a more easterly path out of USA which in turn prevents any ridge development our way and instead allows the trough to position itself towards scandi - not a good signal for summery conditions.

 

I'm none the wise.. my hunch though is ECM has the right signal overall, but getting those heights to crucially build to our east will be the tricky part and once again we may end up with a very short plume wonder  and not on a par with the last one before the atlantic comes crashing in.

[knocker]

The anomalies tonight disagree on the orientation of the Atlantic trough with the GEFS bringing it closer to the UK thus inhibiting pressure build up over the UK and pushing the ridge further east. But both tending towards a N/S split in the westerly flow. In the extended period the GEFS loses the ridge but the ECM retains it south of Iceland backing the flow SW over the UK. So no signs of any persistent warmer weather which doesn't rule out some pleasant weather, more particularly in the south.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited July 13, 2015 by knocker

[knocker]

To sum up this morning's GFS - messy.

 

Basically much of the run has depressions running NE from the Caribbean area (Sunday chart an example) but towards the end of the run the upper trough is over northern Europe with ridge to our west so not an unfamiliar analysis of depressions nipping around the HP to the north and swinging SE into the North Sea. N.B. just one model, one run

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

[mushymanrob]

Your comment related to early that week. Gem and GFS at least did not agree.

I'm not speculating beyond day 10 at the moment given the variable models.

 

not true..... i was on tablet last nigh so couldnt produce supportive charts... but post 336 by frosty highlights the gfs 12z high pressure dominance after the weekend (dropped now though, for now).

heres the ecm 12z

so at the time my post was made, it was correct, both the ecm and gfs DID show high pressure dominance after next weekend. the charts are there to be viewed.

but the 00z gfs (didnt see the 18z) has dropped any lasting high pressure build until after day 10, the ecm 00z is rolling out as i type and i expect will drop its version of high pressure building. the ever reliable noaa anomaly charts do not support a lasting high pressure build. but. niether do they support such a low pressure dominated gfs 00z.

as i interpret it, its looking rather average or just below par.... but gibby will present a far better appraisal soon.

Edited July 13, 2015 by mushymanrob

[knocker]

Not a good run by the ECM either this morning dominated by low pressure with the track of the lows switching from Canada.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

[summer blizzard]

not true..... i was on tablet last nigh so couldnt produce supportive charts... but post 336 by frosty highlights the gfs 12z high pressure dominance after the weekend (dropped now though, for now).

heres the ecm 12z

high1.gif high2.gif

so at the time my post was made, it was correct, both the ecm and gfs DID show high pressure dominance after next weekend. the charts are there to be viewed.

but the 00z gfs (didnt see the 18z) has dropped any lasting high pressure build until after day 10, the ecm 00z is rolling out as i type and i expect will drop its version of high pressure building. the ever reliable noaa anomaly charts do not support a lasting high pressure build. but. niether do they support such a low pressure dominated gfs 00z.

as i interpret it, its looking rather average or just below par.... but gibby will present a far better appraisal soon.

Regarding last night the 12z only showed high pressure domination in the low resolution timeframe. At days 8 and 9 (Mon and Tues - you mentioned after the weekend which is why I talked about them). In the high resolution timeframe (days 7-10) only the Euro went for it.

As you highlight though, the models in FI (which we sometimes forget is within the high resolution timeframe) have since changed and I largely agree with you.

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY JULY 13TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A trailing front will pulsate North and South over England and Wales over the next 24-48hrs with a fresher and somewhat showery Westerly flow over the far North.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Still rather changeable with some dry and bright conditions mixed with occasional rain or showers. Rather warm in the SE at times.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow continuing to target the UK for it's location over the reliable future, blowing mostly on a West to East trajectory across the UK in various strengths before at the far end of the run it weakens and moves North somewhat.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows very changeable conditions across the UK over the coming weeks. There will be spells of benign and quite dry conditions but some rain from slow moving troughs across the South over the next few days, showers anywhere midweek and a short warm surge of air from the SE towards the weekend will quickly breakdown into thundery rain and a cooler windy spells for all as a deepening depression moves NE over the North. Changeable conditions continue in Week 2 too with some rain at times especially in the North with drier conditions in the South and SW for much of the time. Temperatures then look close to average for all.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is very similar in the course of events through the first week with the Low shown at the end of the week on the operational shown here too. However the second week if anything is shown to be more changeable looking across the UK for all areas as Low pressure remains the driving force close to the UK with rain at times for all.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters at 14 days this morning show an almost 50/50 split between unsettled and cloudy westerlies with rain at times to more influence from a ridge across the UK from the SW with dry and bright conditions in comparison.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a glancing blow to the SE for warmth and high humidity at the end of the week as a deepening Low pressure moves NE across the NW of the UK sending rain and thundery rain at that to the SE before fresher conditions affect all at the weekend in Westerly winds and a return to better conditions in the South at the end of the run.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts continue to indicate that relatively weak fronts will remain hung up across Southern Britain for several days in  fairly slack pressure gradients across the UK with a little rain in places before a deepening Low moves NNE across the UK by the weekend with a cold front clearing away all the murk and rain to leave a brighter and fresher weekend for all.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today shows a similarly slack period with troughs hung up across Southern Britain this week with a lot of cloud and a little rain at times. Then a surge of warm humid air moves NE over the SE in association with a deepening depression moving NE over the NW carrying rain and perhaps thunder to the SE briefly before a NW/SE split returns next week with the best conditions towards the South and SE while Northern and western areas keep SW winds and rain at times.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today has it's own version of a depression moving NE across the UK at the end of the week eventually arriving at a similar place to the aforementioned models with best weather then in the South.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM today is very similar to UKMO in format and sequence as it too pulls a belt of Low pressure NE across the UK towards the end of this week replacing some warm, humid and thundery conditions over the SE and replacing it with fresher westerly winds for a time. In the latter stages of the run the weather returns to a similar setup to what we have become accustomed too of late with the North and West seeing some rain at times and cooler conditions while the SE in particular see some drier and warmer periods between very occasional interludes of rain.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last evening shows a Low pressure zone to the North and the likelihood of a weak westerly flow over the UK. troughs would bring occasional rain to the north, sinking further South at times into rather warm and humid air across the South, a pattern very similar to what we have currently in fact.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is still no definitive trend detected from this morning's output with all models playing around with rather complex and often slack synoptics.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.0 pts followed by UKMO at 95.1 pts and GFS at 94.6 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 85.3 pts followed by GFS at 81.4 and UKMO at 81.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 53.0 pts over GFS's 49.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 33.7 pts to 28.9 pts from GFS.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

MY THOUGHTS There remains little sign of any particularly rapid changes in pattern within the model outputs again this morning. While occasional output show the Southeast of the UK entering heatwave territory at times others show more changeable conditions with the overall patterning of the weather at the moment remaining quite stagnant. This of course doesn't mean the same weather is experienced day to day in any one place but it does mean there will be a lot of benign weather between spells of wet or warm and sunny conditions. The latter will be experienced later this week down towards the SE with a surge of warmth culminating in a thundery trough and returning fresher air East to all over the weekend. Elsewhere the incidence of rain will be much more Atlantic orientated as troughs continue to straddle the UK at times. Their positioning will of course be determinate in where that rain will occur but almost all areas will see some at some point over the coming couple of weeks but probably not much for many. While as mentioned already there will be the chance of some very warm days especially in the South with air of a tropical maritime fetch rather than a continental type it will always feel muggy and humid and coupled with a lot of cloud with the risk of some sharp showers even when troughs aren't bringing their own rain. So looking long term from the charts today we look like being not a million miles away synoptically in two weeks from where we are now in terms of weather so while it might not be high Summer for many things look fairly uneventful over the next few weeks with at least the chance of something to suit most tastes with nothing too dramatic or troublesome on the horizon as far as I can see. 

 

Next update from 08:00 Tuesday July 14th 2015

[carinthian]

Watched the excellent weather presentation from Alex Deacon this morning on Breakfast News. His chart showed a waving weather front to effect mostly Southern Britain for the next 2 days at least. Then he referred to a development taking place well southwest in the North Atlantic which could turn into a deep depression. The track and positioned not yet determined. If it goes on a more southerly track, hot air could well be imported on Thursday, further North then much cooler flow for most. Early days yet, but could be one to watch. An interesting week ahead I think.

C