Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->

[draztik]

What I never understand on this thread is that the meto give out a positive outlook ( and often they are right ) but on here you go off on one which often ends up being completely wrong? Ok there are other scenarios but come on the pro's are calling high pressure and nice summer weather post the weekend which will probably prevail, sorry if off topic!

 

hmm... I dont recall seeing the MO say that in recent updates; They point out that the South, as per usual, will likely see the best of any warm/dry conditions that develop... while the NW sees changeable conditions. And looking at the ext ecm ensembles, the idea that warm and settled conditions will take over looks very suspect indeed. 

[Mark Parsons]

hmm... I dont recall seeing the MO say that in recent updates; They point out that the South, as per usual, will likely see the best of any warm/dry conditions that develop... while the NW sees changeable conditions. And looking at the ext ecm ensembles, the idea that warm and settled conditions will take over looks very suspect indeed. 

It depends on how you interpret the wording but to me it suggests summer like conditions in at least the southern half of the country not being IMBY!

[mushymanrob]

Yes and if you compare the NOAA 6-10 and the GEFS T216 there is good agreement. The mods are active tonight so not sure how long this will remain.

 

why shouldnt this remain?..

noaa 8-14 dayer gives supprt to the current ops fi suggested scandi/siberian trough, azores/greenland high ridge to our west... looking cool to end the month.

Edited July 14, 2015 by mushymanrob

[knocker]

why shouldnt this remain?..

noaa 8-14 dayer gives supprt to the current ops fi suggested scandi/siberian trough, azores/greenland high ridge to our west... looking cool to end the month.

 

Ignore that mushy.

 

Yes we don't really want to end up with this.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[Frosty.]

Looking at the next few days, the Gfs 00z shows increasingly fine and warmer weather with more in the way of sunshine, thursday being very warm in the south, into the low 80's F but more humid too with scattered thundery showers later, bright with sunny spells and fresher on Friday for most areas with a few showers, mostly further n/w, meanwhile, a band of moderate to heavy rain spreads across north western UK later on Thursday, affecting the far north on Friday into saturday.

The weekend looks like sunshine and showers, some heavy with hail and thunder and temperatures in the low 70's F but progressively cooler further north by north west, the far south/se may escape mostly fine.

Next week shows a nw/se split with north western UK more unsettled and cooler but with fine and warmer interludes. Further south and east, especially the south eastern half of england looks warm / very warm with a good deal of fine and sunny weather before turning cooler and fresher by the end of next week...this run shows a spell of very acceptable summery weather for at least the southern half of the UK for most of next week.

Edited July 14, 2015 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

ECM shows south westerly winds to start next week pulling up some warm and humid air

 

 

For the 2nd half of the week D9 & D10 winds shift round to a north westerly pulling down some fresher air if skies cleared and winds fell light some rural parts could get down as low as 2 or 3c

 

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY JULY 14TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION  A trailing front will continue to affect Southern Britain today before clearing away to the SE tomorrow with a weak ridge of High pressure affecting all areas for a time.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Still rather changeable with some dry and bright conditions mixed with occasional rain or showers. Rather warm in the SE at times.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow continuing to blow East across the UK for the remainder of this week, strengthening later as a deeper Low tracks to the NW of the UK. The flow then continues to meander well South of it's normal July trajectory and maintains it's stance across the UK before turning more North to South across the UK late in the period, probably due to a pressure build across the Atlantic.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today continues to illustrate a very changeable pattern of weather, always worst in the North with frequent bouts of rain and showers on a Westerly breeze. There looks to be occasional rain too in the South at times though here it will remain more sporadic as High pressure always lies close to the South with some warm air wafting over these areas at times and bringing some summery sunshine. The theme for later in the run is for cooler NW or North winds to develop across the UK with Low pressure close to the East and SE with a change of weather type bringing rain and showers more to the East and SE with best weather then in the West though likely to be cooler for all by then.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run also keeps the well worn pattern of weather going over the next week or so with the North seeing some wet and for a time very windy weather while the South sees the best of fine and warm weather from High pressure lying close by to the South for a lot of the time. Nevertheless some weak fronts will reach here too with cloud and a little rain along with humid air at times. Then through Week 2 all areas are shown to be settled briefly in association with a High celll moving East over Britain followed by renewed Low pressure for all with rain at times and more generally cooler and breezier conditions to end the run.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters at 14 days this morning strongly support a Low pressure belt to lie between Iceland and Norway in two weeks time with High pressure well out to the SW of the UK. This means the emphasis would be on West to NW winds and spells of rain or showers across the UK in relatively cool air with the best of any dry spells likely over the South.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a deepening Low running NE over Ireland and Northern Scotland at the end of the working week with rain and gales to the NW. After a very warm interlude to the SE all areas are then shown to freshen up over the weekend with a lot of dry weather with some sunshine though the NW always look prone to further troughs from Atlantic Low pressure towards the start of next week.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts follow this morning's raw data well as it illustrates the passage of a deepening Low moving NE at the end of the week across the NW. There could be gales in the NW for a time and a band of rain or thundery showers to cross East over many areas weakening as it goes on Friday introducing a fresher weekend with sunshine and just a few showers in the wake of the Low.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today also shows the deepening Low too with strong winds for the North and West for a time and as a cold front moves East patchy rain or showers introduces fresher air to a warm SE by the weekend. After a reset weather pattern to that of recently occurs for a time early next week winds then are shown to switch NW or North with cool and showery conditions likely to spread to all parts at the end of the 10 day period.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today has it's own version of a depression moving NE across the UK at the end of the week moving forward thereafter with a reset weather pattern of a North/South split in conditions next week with rain at times in a Westerly breeze in the North with plenty of dry and bright weather across the South.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM today also shows the Low at the end of the week giving a windy and wet period to the NW but with no more than a glancing blow to the South, this in the shape of a weakening trough with patchy rain or a thundery shower to the warm and humid SE as it goes through on an Eastward track. Thereafter a fresher reset pattern of a Northwest/SE split in the weather is likely for a time next week before the growing trend illustrated by other output to switch winds to a cooler NW'ly is shown late in the run with showers in places.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last evening shows a Low pressure zone to the North and NE of the UK with a slow slide into a cooler NW'ly flow looking possible rather than the moist and often warm SW feed we have had in the South of late.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The main theme of a possible shift of emphasis to veer winds from the mild SW to a cooler NW flow across the UK has some cross model support this morning.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.9 pts followed by UKMO at 95.1 pts and GFS at 94.5 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 85.1 pts followed by GFS at 81.3 and UKMO at 80.9 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 53.5 pts over GFS's 49.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 32.1 pts to 28.3 pts from GFS.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

MY THOUGHTS Changes remain slow but subtle in the weather over the up and coming forecast period. The basic premise of higher pressure to the South and SE remains with lower pressure towards the NW or North. The lower pressure to the NW gets a boost later this week as a deepening Low moves NNE over Ireland and Scotland on Thursday and Friday with the risk of gales and some heavy rainfall for a time. It's influence to the SE will be less clear cut with some very warm and humid air pumped up from Europe ahead of it before becoming quickly replaced by cooler and fresher Atlantic air behind a short risk of thundery showers on the weakening cold front as it travels East on Friday. Most models then support a pattern reset to something similar to what we have now witha NW/SE split looking likely with the best but not exclusive chance of any dry and bright conditions down here while the North and West continue more changeable with rain at times in cooler air which could extend further SE at times. Then by far the most notable point of this morning's output is some cross model support including the ensembles and clusters that pressure could build further North through the Atlantic in the second week. This would have a knock on effect of pulling a cold front SE over all areas with some rain before introducing a spell of cooler NW winds and showery conditions especially towards the North and East. This change would also affect our near European neighbours as this scenario could push the previously summer long heat experienced by much of France and NW Europe further away to the SE which could hinder any return of warmth from that direction to the UK for some time. However, even if this pattern does verify High pressure never looks likely to be far away to the West and SW so no summer monsoon looks likely with just showers on a cool breeze looking more likely than anything else more dramatic and as far as how this will affect the feel of the weather for us across the UK will be concentrated around the removal of the high humidity than has blighted Southern Britain of late and quite frequently so far this summer with some cooler fresher nights likely. It's all a long way out though and there is plenty of time for this trend to be diluted or removed in the up and coming days. 

 

Next update from 08:00 Wednesday July 15th 2015

Edited July 14, 2015 by Gibby

[stodge]

Morning all

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015071406/gfs-1-66.png?6

 

Well, that's about as good as it gets from the early stages of GFS 06Z Operational. A glancing blow of some fairly diluted warmth before what looks in all honesty to be a fairly disappointing weekend.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015071406/gfs-0-84.png?6

 

Not really most people's idea of an ideal mid-July chart.

 

However, a weak HP sets up across the south at the end of the weekend so by next Monday:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015071406/gfs-0-144.png?6

 

Would be reasonable under that. The question for later in the month is whether the Azores HP can ridge up to keep the settled benign conditions or whether the set up of a trough to the east and HP to the NW will drag us into some much less settled and cooler conditions. Jury out on that at present.

[knocker]

The anomalies this morning are in good agreement at day ten.

 

Both have LP over the Pole with troughs Russia and south over the northern half of the UK. A ridge to the SE and pressure building in the western Atlantic.So still maintaining a mainly westerly flow over the UK with HP to the SE and W/SW and LP to the NW. Once again the south will cop for the best of the weather in this mobile scenario.

 

The ext. period still doesn't fill one with optimism with the upper trough seeming to reestablish itself and remain in close attendance giving temps below average for all of the time in the north and only periods of warmer weather in the south.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited July 14, 2015 by knocker

[Nouska]

The anomalies this morning are in good agreement at day ten.

 

Both have LP over the Pole with troughs Russia and south over the northern half of the UK. A ridge to the SE and pressure building in the western Atlantic.So still maintaining a mainly westerly flow over the UK with HP to the SE and W/SW and LP to the NW. Once again the south will cop for the best of the weather in this mobile scenario.

 

The ext. period still doesn't fill one with optimism with the upper trough seeming to reestablish itself and remain in close attendance giving temps below average for all of the time in the north and only periods of warmer weather in the south.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

Hi Knocker, any sign of change on the extended EC32? The Arpege model, via MF forecasts, paints a bleak picture in terms of alleviating a soon to be crisis situation regarding water in this little corner of France.

 

http://propluvia.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/propluvia/faces/index.jsp

[knocker]

Hi Nouska, Pretty broad brush but up to the end of the month the UK is still under the influence of the upper trough but your part of the world is just on the edge of the Azores HP with average temps to about a few degrees above. Fairly dry I would have thought.

 

For the first two weeks of August it's good news all round as we get rid of the upper trough and the Azores ridges into the UK and possibly your area as well, low pressure in Spain might come into the equation though. So SW France temps generally above average but not excessively so and dry (discounting storms). Any comebacks and I'll plead the 5th.

Edited July 14, 2015 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z looks increasingly fine and warm next week with pressure slowly rising, just a few showers dotted around early in the week but becoming largely dry with long sunny spells and light winds, it becomes very warm / hot through low res.

Edited July 14, 2015 by Frosty.

[Woollymummy]

What effect does the pattern higher up have on our surface weather in the summer? I was watching the H500 sequence changing from being lots of little scattered areas of colder air (what we have now) to one or two big patches of colder air (what we might have next week) around the Northern Hemisphere and wondering how those two different situations would be reflected in what we would see down below as summer weather. Please could anyone explain it? I am loving the warm rain for keeping the garden alive, feeling very much like living inside part of Kew Gardens. But I quite miss the bright sunshine....

[Napplewh]

Really poor GFS runs tonight with the Jetstream over the UK for the next 16 days its going to be very changeable and no sign of good summer weather. Im afraid the Models are very negative and the hints of the Azores high pressure ridging in from last nights GFS have all but vanished. 

[summer blizzard]

Euro, GFS and GEM all have the cold front through around day 8 bringing relatively unusual cold uppers..

 

[Napplewh]

The Gfs 6z looks increasingly fine and warm next week with pressure slowly rising, just a few showers dotted around early in the week but becoming largely dry with long sunny spells and light winds, it becomes very warm / hot through low res.

 

GFS completely changed their tune - low pressure and cool westerlies rather than long sunny spells is now in the cards. The only hope is that the 12Z doesnt verify out at 168+

This is most disappointing

Euro, GFS and GEM all have the cold front through around day 8 bringing relatively unusual cold uppers..

 

[Napplewh]

CFS into August 2015 shows very unsettled conditions - lots of rain across the whole of the UK/

[Methuselah]

CFS into August 2015 shows very unsettled conditions - lots of rain across the whole of the UK/

Hot and dry it is, then!

[Scorcher]

Really poor GFS runs tonight with the Jetstream over the UK for the next 16 days its going to be very changeable and no sign of good summer weather. Im afraid the Models are very negative and the hints of the Azores high pressure ridging in from last nights GFS have all but vanished. 

 

Please explain to me what is 'really poor' about this chart. It is not the most settled summer chart but it is average at the very worst for most, and indeed the GFS is showing a good deal of very warm conditions for the south in particular. If you include your location then perhaps you could justify your opinion more. This constant negative hyperbole in here does get very tiresome. Anything that could be considered 'very poor' for most is in FI.

 

[Summer Sun]

ECM is again showing north westerly winds for the 2nd half of next week it will be rather fresh if it came off sods law it will but hopefully given its still a week away it won't

 

Edited July 14, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Napplewh]

Im from Manchester

[knocker]

CFS into August 2015 shows very unsettled conditions - lots of rain across the whole of the UK/

 

The EC32 must have got wind of that as for the first two weeks of August it has the Azores ridge pretty much in charge giving average temps and dry conditions once trhe upper trough starts clearing off on the 1st.

[Methuselah]

Im from Manchester

Could you please put that into your profile?

[draztik]

The EC32 must have got wind of that as for the first two weeks of August it has the Azores ridge pretty much in charge giving average temps and dry conditions once trhe upper trough starts clearing off on the 1st.

Yep. To my knowledge the CFS model has been forecasting drier than average conditions into August. As per latest update

Aug CFS precip anom.

[Napplewh]

This is a very unsettled chart