Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->

[DAVID SNOW]

Have to say, I didn't think next week was looking particularly noteworthy until this evening, but, actually, the latest GFS has central and southern areas in a heatwave all week long - temps maxing out between 27C and 30C in the best areas (and we have recent experience of this model underestimating temperatures too). UKMO and GEM not extravagantly different, too. Northern areas will have to wait a bit longer though.

 

This evenings ecm (apart from Monday) keeps the 'heat' to the other side of the channel for next week.  Time will tell .....

[Frosty.]

Really I can't see anything to moan about for folk in southern parts of the uk next week with temps of 25c plus and high pressure building in close to the south for a time according to the gem 12z, gfs is even better!

[seaside 60]

I just hope the models are right with a more north westerly flow.
Constent south west humid forecasts need to be remodeled to fresh clear north westerlies.

I just hope that they will be right for once.

[seaside 60]

Evening All. A growing concencus  from both models that next weeks weather will hold back the Atlantic but the ecm is not so keen,,,Whatever  happens it looks like a deficit of rainfall in southern Britain.....

You mean like June and the first part of July.

The sea front grass parks are like deserts as are many peoples gardens.

Models have promised  reasonable amounts of rain and the heavens must be in dispute with the models.

[ANYWEATHER]

You mean like June and the first part of July.

The sea front grass parks are like deserts as are many peoples gardens.

Models have promised  reasonable amounts of rain and the heavens must be in dispute with the models.

Nothing more than thunderstorm rain , the whole of the South east wont receive  much rain in the near future

[Summer Sun]

Those in the south hoping for some rain for the gardens are out of luck again this evening with GFS looks very dry once more

 

Edited July 15, 2015 by Summer Sun

[mushymanrob]

Really I can't see anything to moan about for folk in southern parts of the uk next week with temps of 25c plus and high pressure building in close to the south for a time according to the gem 12z, gfs is even better!

But most of us arent in the southeast mate, i dont care what others get, im only interested in MY weather...

[Bolt from the Blue]

But most of us arent in the southeast mate, i dont care what others get, im only interested in MY weather...

That's what the regional discussion threads were made for

[snowwonder]

I'm still learning to read the models but looking at FI for 10 days time am I right saying that cooler and fresher with some rain as off to Norfolk broads for 10 days. Would be a shame as had rubbish weather there for last 2 years. And up to now here in the east summer has been pretty good to be fair.

[knocker]

Still no sign of losing the upper trough on the ext ECM. Any day now.

[William of Walworth]

You seem pretty confident, knocker, on the longer term trends.

[knocker]

One has to remain upbeat WoW.

[knocker]

Nothing to say about the brief overview of this mornings GFS that hasn't been said already. Continued interplay between the depressions nipping out of Canada and the Azores ridge. Periods of quite pleasant weather particularly in the SE A couple of charts just as an example.

 

Note NOAA is still emphasising in F1 POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited July 16, 2015 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

GFS 00z is poor if its heat and settled weather you want from the latter half of next week

 

[Sweatyman]

GFS 00z is poor if its heat and settled weather you want from the latter half of next week

 

that really is dire looking for my 10 days in East yorkshire

[tempestwatch]

I just hope the models are right with a more north westerly flow.

Constent south west humid forecasts need to be remodeled to fresh clear north westerlies.

I just hope that they will be right for once.

You need to come and live in Scotland lol!

[knocker]

Is the Azores HP girding it's loins with a pattern change in the US?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

[Man With Beard]

Just as yesterday's GFS 12Z was overly settled compared to the ens, this morning's 00Z is rather more unsettled than the other ensemble members as the pressure level indicates:

 

 

The possibility of a "late-developing" Atlantic low next Thurs/Fri now showing up across many models; the ECM op goes with it:

 

 

We have seen the ECM slightly over-develop these so chances are the low will be shallower nearer the time. However the means at T168 show a kink in the same position, suggesting that the ECM is not alone in this idea:

 

 

So, after a warm humid start to next week, the chance of another two day warm/hot wonder to end the week. Beyond that, very tentatively, the weekend of 25th/26th looks potentially unsettled but probably briefly, and I detect a raising of heights to our north which is positive for Scottish sunshine seekers in the long term. Lots of water to go under the bridge before then.

[mb018538]

The amount of high pressure and blocking over Greenland and the NP this summer has been unbelievable!
I truly believe that without the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill that threw a massive wave into the jet stream and gave us that incredible heat earlier in July, this summer would have been devoid of anything extreme heat-wise.

Going forward the models don't appear to show any break to this rinse and repeat pattern of brief heat pulses clipping the SE, while the NW stays cooler and more unsettled. Typical summer weather I guess. We can all just wait until winter returns, when there is sure to be no sign of any height rises over Greenland or the pole, with a big fat ridging Azores high and a long train of atlantic depressions giving us windy and mild weather.

[Summer Sun]

GFS 06z is a good deal better than the 00z

 

06z left 00z right

 

[Gibby]

Very busy this week and the weekend so not always time to post my report across from my website but for those interested you can always view it here. Normal service should be resumed soon.

 

Model Output Analysis-16/07/2015

[stodge]

Afternoon all

 

A rare chance for me to catch up on the state of play model-wise:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html

 

The NAO has been very strongly negative for a few days but there's an overwhelming trend to send the index back to neutrality and even into positive territory by the end of the month.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015071606/gfs-0-72.png?6

 

This is where we are or are going to be at the weekend. Pressue remains low to the west and south-west keeping the index suppressed and note the higher pressures over Greenland while the Azores HP is suppressed to the south.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015071606/gfs-0-252.png?6

 

This is the more "default" position with HP to the SW and lower pressure to the NW. The problem for heat fans is this doesn't facilitate the draw of hot continental air - it may well be settled and indeed warm but what it wouldn't be is either a) hot or b) thundery. In addition, the synoptic set up favours the south while the north is more exposed to the Atlantic and periods of wind and rain from passing frontal systems.

 

My take on the medium term is the same as many other people's - the south will do well with plenty of warm sunshine while for the north it remains stubbornly unsettled. Temperatures warm and perhaps very warm occasionally in the south, average further north.

 

August starts looking messy but that's a lifetime away - we need to see any evidence of tropical systems disrupting the pattern as can happen.

[mb018538]

6z is certainly better than the 0z run, and as stodge points out above, with a trend back towards a more positive NAO, hopefully we can finally see some lower pressure back to our north, and an end to NW'erly quadrant winds.

I know this isn't necessarily going to lead to some blowtorch heat, but :

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1990/Rrea00119900803.gif 3rd August 1990

and

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2003/Rrea00120030810.gif 10th August 2003

and

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2006/Rrea00120060725.gif July 2006

These hot weather spells all had generally lower pressure to the north. It can only be a good start!  
 

[Woollymummy]

It doesn't have the same crazy standing on its head look as last time

[summer blizzard]

GFS and GEM somewhat unsetteled, especially from day 7..