Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->

[Cloud 10]

Quite a change regarding Sunday's prospects on the 12z'z which was looking like quite a pleasant day.

 

fax this morning..  latest fax..

[summer blizzard]

Unsettled but on the warm side according to GEFS 12z especially for southern and eastern parts:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=174&mode=0&carte=

 

Nothing unusual there given we are close to the upper air peak.

[Summer Sun]

Unsettled but on the warm side according to GEFS 12z especially for southern and eastern parts:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=174&mode=0&carte=

 

The London ens shows the 850's going below average from the 25th moving back towards average for early August

 

 

Pressure looks fairly steady as well for the next few weeks never getting too low, but also never getting much above 1020mb so all in all some rain at times but certainly no wash out like some summers

 

[summer blizzard]

Great persistence from this Greenland High..

 

[Frosty.]

Great persistence from this Greenland High..

 

We just need this Greenland high to persist for another 5 months

[mushymanrob]

Great persistence from this Greenland High..

 

But also a strong azores high which has so far prevented an 07, 08 12 repeat.

[ANYWEATHER]

Hi Folks , looks like the jet stream will migrate further north next week so the bulk of the unsettled in the North, the south claiming the best of anyweather

[Frosty.]

Hi Folks , looks like the jet stream will migrate further north next week

Looks like it's migrating south to me..lol

[Mokidugway]

Either way it's not where we want it !!!.

[johnholmes]

Hi Folks , looks like the jet stream will migrate further north next week so the bulk of the unsettled in the North, the south claiming the best of anyweather

 

An odd comment to make using the 850 charts to illustrate your comment AW?

[knocker]

Hi Folks , looks like the jet stream will migrate further north next week so the bulk of the unsettled in the North, the south claiming the best of anyweather

 

And to me it looks like it's running south of the established upper low straight over the UK before weakening and moving south. The anomaly chart has the upper trough just to the NW of the UK portending a westerly/NW flow and  unsettled weather the UK

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[damianslaw]

Nothing settled about the outlook, with the jet forecast to position itself in an unfavourable position for any pronounced ridge development over the country, end result a continuation of the general theme we've had since early May, the SE stealing the driest sunniest warmest weather, the further north and west the more fleeting dry sunny warm weather becomes.

 

Patterns often do become rather entrenched at this stage of the summer, the Jetstream settling firmly into its high summer state, this year not a good position for those wanting sustained dry sunny warm/very warm weather.. but things can change..

[knocker]

The latest EC32 update is still pushing the idea of losing the upper trough after the 1st August and making the Azores ridge the influential factor until the 17th. It does this without promoting an established high cell over the UK but maintains a gentle W/NW flow which may at least possible bring some better weather to the north although temps will remain about average possible a tad above in the south. Joan the Wad is quietly confident.

[knocker]

In the meantime no change with this morning's GFS with the mobile westerly flow and the interactions between the cold and warm air which naturally will continue to favour the south, One chart just as an example (and no more) of the depressions riding in on a crest of a wave, so to speak.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Malc, No change from the GFS this morning with a N/W - S/E split through into the turn of the Month.

Edited July 17, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z gives us an early taste of autumn in low res, notice the little pockets of cold air starting to appear in the arctic, they become much more organised through August and gives coldies a tingle of anticipation for the winter ahead which will surely be better than the last one.

Edited July 17, 2015 by Frosty.

[summer blizzard]

While still a little out, it looks to me as if days 7-10 see the jet approach from further south than has been the case recently.

[Frosty.]

While still a little out, it looks to me as if days 7-10 see the jet approach from further south than has been the case recently.

Indeed

[Gibby]

Hi folks. Better organized this morning so here's my report. there will be no report from me tomorrow though either here or on my wensite but will return with hopefully some better model runs on Sunday morning.

 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY JULY 17TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A deep Low pressure area to the NW of the UK will maintain a fresh to strong SW flow across the UK with an occlusion affecting Northern Britain weakening slowly later.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Still rather changeable with some dry and bright conditions mixed with occasional rain or showers. Temperatures largely near average but possibly warm at times in the SE at first

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast remains persistent in maintaining the Jet flow crossing East over the UK, quite strongly given the time of year. It tilts more SW to NE and weakens somewhat late next week but shows little sign of moving far away from the UK rejuvenating after a brief lull to trough down across the UK in the outer reaches of this morning's output.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today again illustrates another changeable run with Low pressure eventually making more impression towards Southern Britain as well as the North. The North/South divide remains meantime with showers in the North and strong winds easing while the South sees several days of fresher but largely fine weather. Then next week a flabby area of Low pressure looks likely to develop over the UK as it tracks east giving rain at times for all. Thereafter a mobile ridge/trough pattern in a largely West to East moving pattern looks likely with all areas then seeing fresh Atlantic winds with rain or showers at times as depressions cross by over the UK. 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is not quite so poor as the operational but paints a smilar picture overall with Westerly winds being maintained with some rain at times for all though the emphasis on this run remains for this to be more prolific over Northern Britain with longer drier spells in the South. The Control Run also shows a stronger build of pressure from the South and SW at the end of the run to affect many places.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters at 14 days seem to have shown High pressure out to the SW at the 14 day point for what seems ages now and today is no exception with a mix of options showing a ridge from it having a greater or lesser influence to the UK dependant on the axis of the ridge in relation to the proximity of Low pressure to the North in what looks like Westerly winds for all at that point in time.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO on the face of it looks quite changeable and unsettled this morning with weakish Low pressure straddling the UK to start next week before it eases East towards midweek and sets up a slack and rather cool NW flow across the UK with some showers for the North and West.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show a cocktail of troughs likely to affect the UK over the next 5 days giving all areas some rain at times in winds broadly blowing from a West or SW point.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today does it's best in trying to maintain a broadly NW/SE split in the weather for the time being with rain at times for all but most of it still towards the North and West while some warmth remains across the SE early next week. Then later next week the model whips up an almost Autumnal storm as it crosses NE over the UK with wind, rain and poor temperatures as it goes. This then eases away to a more North/South split in conditions with rain at times, chiefly by then back to Northern regions with average temperatures overall.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows Low pressure over the North of the UK next week, albeit slack  with some rain or showers likely at times with some dry and bright weather too. With winds settling NW later for most if not all areas later it hardly looks overly warm with average temperatures and perhaps the hint of warmth for the SE early in the period.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM today although not as dramatic as some of the other output maintains a theme of keeping European warmth away from all but the SE of the UK with rather changeable conditions remaining across the UK with some rain or showers at times, still largely for the North but the South too on occasion and with winds blowing from a position between West and North for much of next week average temperatures look like being maintained at best away from the far SE where to begin with a little warmth and humidity hangs on a while longer.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows the Azores High at home while Low pressure to the North or NE gives us a strong indicator of a Westerly flow with rain at times and average temperatures is the most likely position we will be at in 10 days time.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The main trend from the models today is a Westerly flow across the UK for the foreseeable future.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.7 pts followed by UKMO at 95.0 pts and GFS at 94.2 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 84.4 pts followed by GFS at 80.8 and UKMO at 80.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 53.7 pts over GFS's 48.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 34.2 pts to 29.0 pts from GFS.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

MY THOUGHTS For those of you looking for UK wide warmth under a large anticyclone over the next few weeks you are likely to be disappointed by my report this morning. For nearly all models illustrate broadly Easterly moving Low pressure systems from the Atlantic, across the UK and then on to NW Europe in varying degrees of potency and positioning through the period. The problem remains higher pressure in the wrong place i.e too far South of the UK and more importantly over the Greenland area, not normally a good poition for High pressure to lie as far as the UK goes in Summer. This pulls the Jet Stream further South than is normal for this time of year. In this case it is shown to blow for much of the period right over the top of the UK spawning Low pressure areas and delivering rain at times in the process and bottling any European Summer warmth down towards the Meditteranean rather than Northern France or the UK. However, it's certainly not a case of blanket rainfall and though the differentials in weather between SE and NW seen of late will likely lessen over the period there will still be less rainfall for the SE than elsewhere and while the short bursts of warmth and humidity which have occurred with some regularity recently will likely occur with less frequency through the period it should feel pleasant enough in any sunnier breaks between the rain or shower bands. Looking towards grains of hope for settled warm summer weather in the far reaches of this morning's output I can't see any definitive trend towards any one weather type but what I do know is that pressure needs to fall over Greenland so that pesky Jet flow can flow further North towards Iceland  and allow the Azores High to pull NE into the UK and on this morning's evidence that doesn't reallly look like happening anytime soon so I don't think any noteworthy settled or hot spell is likely across the UK now this side of August. 

 

Next update from 09:00 Saturday July 18th 2015

[Frosty.]

We just need this Greenland high to persist for another 5 months

This may sound controversial but I would sacrifice the rest of this summer if it meant the Greenland high remained strong for the rest of this year and gave us a much better chance of a colder autumn and especially winter with a southerly tracking jet. I love hot weather in summer but I love cold winters more!

Edited July 17, 2015 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

This may sound controversial but I would sacrifice the rest of this summer if it meant the Greenland high remained strong for the rest of this year and gave us a much better chance of a colder autumn and especially winter with a southerly tracking jet. I love hot weather in summer but I love cold winters more!

 

From a coldies perspective it would be better to have low pressure over Greenland till around late October then during November and December high pressure starts and builds the chances of the Greenland high remaining strong for the next 5 months is pretty slim

Edited July 17, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

From a coldies perspective it would be better to have low pressure over Greenland till around late October then during November and December high pressure starts and builds the chances of the Greenland high remaining strong for the next 5 months is pretty slim

The main point of my post was that coldies wait and wait, and then wait some more for decent height rises to the northwest in winter and it becomes frustrating beyond belief. I already have a feeling the upcoming winter will be a good one for coldies thanks to a strong El Nino and cold PDO cycle (Pacific Decadal Oscillation).

Edited July 17, 2015 by Frosty.

[Polar Maritime]

As much as i agree with the above.. Lets get back to what the Models are showing please.

 

Thanks, PM.

[mushymanrob]

could you imagine the uproar if warm weather fans started talking about the forthcoming summers prospects in mid january?...

but tbh, theres not much more to discuss, all the potential signs of something more settled building have not evolved into something summery, and the outlook is taking a turn for the worse as the azores high withdraws its influence from the uk, allowing the greenland high to push the jet further south.
 

its pretty clear now that we are unlikely to get a much desired anticyclonic settled spell with its attendant heat and sun in the heart of summer (late july/early august), and theres no guarantee of one later (which i dont care for).
 

the models are looking distinctly pretty average or just below, which is pleasant enough in the sunnier times.

[knocker]

I wouldn't write off the beginning of August just yet.