Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->

[Tim Bland]

I'm sure everyone will join me in saying a big welcome back to Stuart!  Such a valuable member of the forum who has been really missed!  Hope you can continue to contribute GP! 

 

Back to the models and the Azores high looks like it will have less resistence in pushing back over the UK from the end of next week.  Not overly hot to begin with but pleasent summer conditions look like setting in.  ECM will lead the way in the return of the AH and GFS will be slow to crawl on board is my guess of the model output over the next few days

[knocker]

Just got in so just had a look at the ECm ext anomalies and hey ho by by upper trough and heights building Scandinavia interlinking with the Azores ridge. So looking good beginning of August albeit not brilliant temps but perhaps warming up later.

 

Just to add the GEFS hasn't been a million miles behind the eight ball here.

Edited July 21, 2015 by knocker

[mountain shadow]

I'm sure everyone will join me in saying a big welcome back to Stuart!  Such a valuable member of the forum who has been really missed!  Hope you can continue to contribute GP! 

Absolutely! The return of the King!

 

Finally, positive signs in the models of the decline in upper trough near to the North West, lets hope it continues. Need some warmth before Autumn returns. 

[SnowBallz]

If I could interject here....

 

The upper level divergence signal in the Indian Ocean (MJO related) is slowly edging across the Indian Ocean towards the Tropical Maritimes. That is a region where the GEFS frequently struggles and shows negative bias, so given the importance of this tropical driver, I would not be in a rush to back the GEFS means here - this is not the model to show us out of next weeks rather large trough dominating north and north-west Europe.

 

With the tropical signal migrating through the Indian Ocean, we should see a fall in pressure to the east of the Himalayas and pretty rapid spike in tendency in relative angular momentum and the Global Wind Oscillation move towards phase 4. That's a decent signal for Rossby wave influence for rising pressure over NW Europe within a 10-15 day timeframe.

 

EC EPS 00z going for a pretty impressive turnaround in pressure end next week into the following week, with the longwave trough replaced by a moderate strength +ve height anomaly centred to our east. So much more settled and becoming warmer again in the extended outlook period.

 

Welcome back to the madhouse Stuart!

 

It's been a while since we've had a 'seasonal' August, as such; September has recently been our saving grace.

[mushymanrob]

There is nothing on the anomaly charts in my view to give any hope of high pressure and heat in the next 2 weeks or so.

 

being a follower of your observations re the anomaly charts, and for what its worth, i agree.

 

hopefully within the next few days something should appear on the 8-14 day chart that may start  to support what well respected members like knocker, tamara, and now glacier point are/have been suggesting for a while now. that chart that far out is rather prone to sudden changes for obvious reasons, so ill be following those charts for a possible pattern change rather then the ops. as ever, the anomaly charts should pick it up with any degree of certainty before the ops (but not always). fingers crossed for this evenings release.

 

[Frosty.]

I expect we will be seeing lots of very summery low res charts in the days ahead.

Add the 6z to the list and plenty more to come! I'm really positive about August prospects, this is a much better 6z than yesterday and having read Glacier Point's earlier post regarding August, the last month of summer is now hugely anticipated. I hope GP is going to have the time to post regularly, it will be fantastic for netweather if he can.

[legritter]

Well it would be good to pull a nice summery august out of the bag gang .

but at 10 days away, 20 runs of the main modells and 40 gfs runs a lot as we know can change .but ever increasing support for high pressure to become more influential to start August ,A nice end to summer will help the autumn and winter to be less painfull ,of course depending on what turns up ,some great posts brilliant forum cheers gang .

[Methuselah]

Welcome back to the madhouse Stuart!

 

It's been a while since we've had a 'seasonal' August, as such; September has recently been our saving grace.

Welcome back to you, too, SB...Does that mean we have two sensible (if different) views on how things might progress?

[Rocheydub]

The best bit of news on the MOD threads since the GH OF 2009 and 2010... The return of the mighty Stuart! Welcome back GP

Edited July 21, 2015 by Rocheydub

[Polar Maritime]

Ok back to the Models please, I'm sure GP feels more than welcome on here as always   

 

Thanks, PM.

[Rocheydub]

Ok back to the Models please, I'm sure GP feels more than welcome on here as always   

 

Thanks, PM.

apologies, it's hard to just discuss models when the mighty return! I'll behave in future!

Interesting to hear GP thoughts on GFS not handling this transition very well and as JH was saying, nothing showing up (yet) on the anomaly charts to suggest high pressure returning in the medium to long term. As always, more runs needed!

[Catacol]

Ha - GP is back. That's great news.

 

Sorry - I cant resist... but every Winter since his departure has been poor to awful for the south. His return surely suggests something different for 2015/16. :-P

 

:-) - and to make sure this is on topic and not moved (thanks Mods) - I notice that the ensembles for GEFS and GEM are also backing the ECM ensemble solution for a pressure rise at the end of next week. Evidence of a high pressure start to August is becoming fairly solid.

[mb018538]

Back to tonights 12z runs.....the UKMO 144 is a shocker for July! Dartboard low plonked right on top of the UK. Expect plenty of rain there to go with the other systm moving in Friday-Saturday. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rukm1441.gif

I think we can write the rest of July off now as a bit of a disaster. A fair amount of rain, wind and temps around or slightly below average. Disappointing considering how hot the beginning was, and how hot a fair portion of western Europe has been this summer. So near yet so far.

We now turn our attention to the beginning of August for our next hope, as others have said. Signals showing a drop in heights over Greenland, as well as different, shifting patterns globally which should help break this cycle to something a bit more settled and summery. Keep your eyes peeled!

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z turns into an absolute beauty through low res with high pressure domination and the formation of a blocking Scandi high and even a brief link up with the Azores high on this run which is nice to see, it's a classic way for a summery pattern to evolve from the azores. These type of charts are what I'm expecting to see increase and gradually moving from low res to high res by the time we reach the end of July / start of August, it looks to me like the change of month will bring a marked change in our weather...for the better

Edited July 21, 2015 by Frosty.

[summer blizzard]

GFS out to day 8 is abysmal..

 

Day 0.

 

 

Day 4..

 

 

Day 7..

 

 

Day 8..

 

 

..

 

That's 4 low pressure systems moving through in 8 days. 2 in locations that could produce a lot of rainfall.

 

25-75mm widely.

 

[knocker]

The GEFs anomalies tonight still much the same with the retreat of the trough and a flat zonal HP connection Azores/Scandinavia.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

[Man With Beard]

GFS out to day 8 is abysmal..

 

Day 0.

 

 

Day 4..

 

 

Day 7..

 

 

Day 8..

 

 

..

 

That's 4 low pressure systems moving through in 8 days. 2 in locations that could produce a lot of rainfall.

 

25-75mm widely.

 

That does like a proper rainfall. Drought looks set to be broken down south? Meanwhile, Knocker's High (or do I need to call it GP's high now?) continues to build in from somewhere between D9 and D12. CAUTION! We have been here before with the Azores High in summers gone past. With both GEFS and ECM mean showing it, it looks a firm favorite, but one naughty badly positioned Atlantic low can reduce its impact at fairly short notice. Too early to call as a "cert" just yet.

[Gael_Force]

The high might be building in in the latter stages of the ECM but I'm not impressed with the upper temperature that goes with it. Changing cool, stormy and wet for cool and calm is not my idea of high summer weather.

 

[mushymanrob]

being a follower of your observations re the anomaly charts, and for what its worth, i agree.

 

hopefully within the next few days something should appear on the 8-14 day chart that may start  to support what well respected members like knocker, tamara, and now glacier point are/have been suggesting for a while now. that chart that far out is rather prone to sudden changes for obvious reasons, so ill be following those charts for a possible pattern change rather then the ops. as ever, the anomaly charts should pick it up with any degree of certainty before the ops (but not always). fingers crossed for this evenings release.

Well... Instead of supporting pressure rise in early august todays noaa 8 - 14 day anomaly chart suggests an upper trough in control over the uk, a step away from settled... Bugger.

On tablet, cant post the chart. Not a strong trough but it suggests lower pressure then the previous flat chart which is a retrogressive step away from desired settled and warm.

Not what i want to see, by a mile, but currently im not buying any fi pressure rise.

[knocker]

Well... Instead of supporting pressure rise in early august todays noaa 8 - 14 day anomaly chart suggests an upper trough in control over the uk, a step away from settled... Bugger.

On tablet, cant post the chart. Not a strong trough but it suggests lower pressure then the previous flat chart which is a retrogressive step away from desired settled and warm.

Not what i want to see, by a mile, but currently im not buying any fi pressure rise.

 

Sorry not following that Mushy. It looks very much like the GEFS at T288 to me.having lost the upper trough lying NE/SW Also any Scandinavian height rises would be pushing towards the end of the NOAA.

Edited July 21, 2015 by knocker

[Gael_Force]

Well... Instead of supporting pressure rise in early august todays noaa 8 - 14 day anomaly chart suggests an upper trough in control over the uk, a step away from settled... Bugger.

On tablet, cant post the chart. Not a strong trough but it suggests lower pressure then the previous flat chart which is a retrogressive step away from desired settled and warm.

Not what i want to see, by a mile, but currently im not buying any fi pressure rise.

does that chart not just mean that there is no height anomaly over the UK? August should have relatively good weather on the base for the climatology; it is a step in the right direction, just not to the hot high so many would like.

[mb018538]

Any weather from that NW quadrant will remain on the cool side with those pesky low SSTs lingering on from that brutal winter and spring in the eastern USA. Until the flow is purely WSW or better, 850s will be on the low side. Hopefully it can pull East in time and tap back into the very warm/hot continental air

[knocker]

The SST anomaly in the Atlantic is nowt to do with last winter in the eastern US.

[mushymanrob]

Sorry not following that Mushy. It looks very much like the GEFS at T288 to me.having lost the upper trough lying NE/SW Also any Scandinavian height rises would be pushing towards the end of the NOAA.

 

I dont see that mate, we had a flat pattern, we have a depressed flow over the uk, certainly not any sign of the pressure rise i want to see. Time will tell.

 

does that chart not just mean that there is no height anomaly over the UK? August should have relatively good weather on the base for the climatology; it is a step in the right direction, just not to the hot high so many would like.

But its the height anomaly we need to see to support the current ops, and the pressure rise the 'big guns' suggest will occur in early August.

Interesting times ahead, i want more then anything some settled warmth, my lilies are in bloom now, i want the weather thatll suit them best and my enjoyment of their colour and scent. Big names here are suggesting pressure rise in early august which is what i dearly would like to see. But i cannot see it happening until the anomaly charts allow for it. Currently they dont, until they do im not buying it as the noaa anomaly charts are the most accurate for their time period.

So who will be right? The early august pressure rise camp, or the noaa anomaly charts?

[snowwonder]

Bit off topic, but don't need models when I go away on Norfolk broads as guaranteed to be shocking weather just like next week will be. It looks like being a foul week looking at the lows crossing the country especially Monday and Tuesday. Couldn't make it up. Please let it rain at night.

Can anyone shed any good news for weather from Friday for 10 days?