Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->

[BlueHedgehog074]

The GFS 12Z continues the sort of theme it had on the previous run with High Pressure building over to the East of the UK drawing up some warmer air from the South.

 

 

The Eastern UK High Pressure, though, does break down from the South-West with Low Pressure taking over. And with some of that warm air trying to get into Southern areas before hand, it could introduce some thundery weather at first:

 

 

I think trends will be the most important thing at the end of the day, but considering the GEFS ensembles were suggesting pressure to lower again after a few days, it is certainly possible that any build of pressure over the UK could certainly just be transient. 

 

For the new few days, though, and it looks like a mixture of bands of rain accompanied by some gusty weather with periods of brighter and showery weather, particularly for the North, between rain bands. The coolest and most unsettled conditions look to be towards Northern UK with the odd ridge to the South of the UK at times keeping the weather in that part a bit less unsettled and brighter. Although even these parts will see some rain at times, especially this Sunday. I suppose some of the plants have been dying to have a drink, really, and give those to the South who enjoy that type of weather more rain to look forward to. Winds will also briefly turn more Northerly or North-Westerly at the beginning of next week as areas of Low Pressure to the West of the UK transfer to our East. Some parts to the North of the UK perhaps reaching just low mid-teen temperatures at best towards the end of this weekend and into the start of next week thanks to the cool Northerly winds. A few of these nights, most especially to the North, are likely to be on the rather chilly side, too. 

 

Edited July 24, 2015 by DiagonalRedLine

[knocker]

Given the way things have been lately one hesitates to draw even tentative conclusions but tonight's GEFS anomalies are tending towards the EC32 for one. Although there is no indication of height rises to the east the dreaded upper trough is weaker and even a semblance of an Azores ridge to the SW Still westerly and average temps but the latter is something that will not change drastically.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited July 24, 2015 by knocker

[summer blizzard]

While the GFS brings hope, the Euro brings misery.

 

[damianslaw]

For the foreseeable absolutely no sign of any sustained settled weather on the cards, with the UK caught under a troublesome trough. Longer term tentative weak ridge development from the south probable order of the day before further trough disruption from the NW.. A poor outlook for high summer however you look at things.

[knocker]

No change from the NOAA 8-14 tonight with the trough to the west, no sign of positive height build up. westerly flow sourced from the great lakes. Cool.

[Paul]

Just a heads up- a few posts have been moved to the other Model thread,where they seem more suited.

 

The idea at this point was for everyone to make sure they kept it to model discussion, but since then some 50% of posts have been equally off topic, so they've also gone over to the model banter thread. 

 

Please can we now keep this on topic, thanks.

[BlueHedgehog074]

The shorter range version of the NOAA 500mb anomaly chart (6 to 10 day one) also doesn't show much of an improvement at all for widespread very warm and settled conditions with a fairly Westerly drivern pattern. The 500mb flow indicates no real signs of ridging over the UK. The lower than average heights to the West of the UK, however, don't look mega low, so troughing to the West or North-West of the UK would probably be fairly slack at times, but close enough to influence the British Isles with further unsettled and cool weather - particularly for the North of the UK. The anomalies look a touch less lower towards the South of the UK and into Southern Mainland Europe, which could mean Southern areas seeing a little less in the way of disturbed weather at times, and perhaps in any decent sunny spells, could be fairly warm at times what with a South-Westerly 500mb flow over the UK. But since it's not a long-drawn upper South-Westerly flow, even for the South, it probably won't be all that warm at times (except perhaps for again in any reasonable sunny spells).

 

Would seem that even if High Pressure does build over and/or towards our East for late next week (some models of which still support it) possibly with that plume-like setup, it still looks as though it wouldn't indeed last long at all. 

 

 

Just hope for those of you wanting something more warmer and settled, this being more so for those of you to the North desperate for something much more warmer and settled that some improvements will start to arise. Otherwise just have to hope the possible pressure build to the East of the UK towards next week (if it doesn't get stamped-out completely) becomes more prolonged. 

Edited July 24, 2015 by DiagonalRedLine

[knocker]

The ext ECM anomaly tonight is not dissimilar to the GEFS posted above.

[bluearmy]

As I mused yesterday, things not looking very positive and today's ops continue to build heights around svaalbard which draws the Atlantic systems this way rather than heading ne. Not the first time that a British summer has seen nw Europe as a magnet for the upper trough. Two possible ways out of this are a propensity for the Atlantic trough to dig a bit which could drive a scuero ridge which we find ourselves close enough to or for a good old fashioned ex 'hurricane' to make its way Into the Atlantic basin. neither are favoured currently!

[knocker]

Looking though this mornings GEFS anomalies we end up on the 9th in very familiar territory with the upper trough to our NW, no appreciable height build up to the east and the Azores pushed to the SW. A recipe for much of the same with cooler than average temps.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited July 25, 2015 by knocker

[mushymanrob]

well at least itll be warmer rain



with the upper airflow hitting the uk from a more southwesterly direction, so temps should return to more average then cold.

could wednesday repeat yesterdays deluge?



another nasty little low is expected to form out to our southwest and run in towards southern areas?...

its now looking very much like we have lost the mainly dry weather, and august looks like slipping into an unsettled, wet, month..like aug 13?..

Edited July 25, 2015 by mushymanrob

[mushymanrob]

Looking though this mornings GEFS anomalies we end up on the 9th in very familiar territory with the upper trough to our NW, no appreciable height build up to the east and the Azores pushed to the SW. A recipe for much of the same with cooler than average temps.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

ha ha... our posts crossed... heres me thinking itll be less cool, and temps nearer average, and you think itll be below average...

..... can we agree it will be not as chilly as current, but around just below average?

[knocker]

ha ha... our posts crossed... heres me thinking itll be less cool, and temps nearer average, and you think itll be below average...

..... can we agree it will be not as chilly as current, but around just below average?

 

But of course and there is certainly no imminent heatwave plus much discussion in Exeter.

[Summer Sun]

Looking at ECM the opening few days of August look like continuing with some unsettled conditions and temperatures struggling

 

 

GFS has a nasty looking low later next weekend and it doesn't rush to clear

 

 

The met office have remained very confident that things will improve as we move into August but at the moment I can't see any signs of this

[johnholmes]

The anomaly charts, all 3 I use, have no indication out to 15 days ahead of anything but a trough ruling the UK weather. Heights at 570DM on the NOAA 6-10 are not that cold but they originate from north of the Gt Lakes and the Vancouver area so are not going to give any heat waves either. The pattern suggests further surface features into the UK area in this time scale. Some warmth in the south where a temporary surface ridge occurs but that is about it really.

links below

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS is showing some pretty cool night's by the end of next week especially for the North. The risk of ground Frost possible in some areas. And cold enough for any precipitation to turn Wintry over the Highlands/Mountains. 

Edited July 25, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[mb018538]

I do often wonder where the met get their information from.....as to me, there is nothing in any of the available weather data that points to anything settled at all in the forecast period. Trough well and truly entrenched over the UK, with the potential for another one or two low pressure systems moving in to give alot more rainfall. I honestly thought after the start of July we'd be in for a good summer....now it seems we've reverted back to the type of weather that dominated June.

[mountain shadow]

I do often wonder where the met get their information from.....as to me, there is nothing in any of the available weather data that points to anything settled at all in the forecast period. Trough well and truly entrenched over the UK, with the potential for another one or two low pressure systems moving in to give alot more rainfall. I honestly thought after the start of July we'd be in for a good summer....now it seems we've reverted back to the type of weather that dominated June.

I'm guessing, like GP and Tamara they look at other things like the GWO and Mountain torques etc…, these appeared to be pointing to a more settled August, unfortunately, something must be over riding those signals.

 

El Nino perhaps?

[Summer Sun]

GFS has a very deep low out in the Atlantic next Sunday pulling up some warmer air

 

 

Not that it would last long because we all know what happens to the low............

 

Edited July 25, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Nouska]

I'm guessing, like GP and Tamara they look at other things like the GWO and Mountain torques etc…, these appeared to be pointing to a more settled August, unfortunately, something must be over riding those signals.

 

El Nino perhaps?

 

I'm not sure how accurate the JMA composites are but taken at face value, they would indicate a very warm region 1+2 in August should translate to the exact opposite of what we see being modelled for the UK.

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/newoceanindex/index.html

[Cloud 10]

Perhaps the low SST anomalies in the Atlantic are partially "smothering" the El nino expected pattern?

 

 

 

El crappo seems more apt.

[knocker]

I tend to be rather amused by people wondering where the METO gets its information from with the inference their longer term forecast is wrong. It's worth remembering that their latest 16-30 day forecast doesn't even kick in until the 5th which is ten days away so a tad premature for definitive conclusions. Although the limited information available to us, who also have limited knowledge, would indicate a pretty unsettled outlook we should perhaps remind ourselves that even professionals with a vast array of experience, and access to a huge amount of data, can get it wrong simply because forecasting in the medium range is still in its infancy such is the complexity of oceanic/atmospheric interactions.

[mb018538]

....in which case, why do they even put them up? I don't like the bashing the met office get from people who know nothing about the weather at all, but placing these extended outlooks up sets themselves up to be shot at!

Back to the models, maybe the huge cold pool in the Atlantic is squeezing the thermal gradients further south this year - ie the jet is more southerly as the cold boundary is more to the south than it should be? I'm sure that's a simplistic was of looking at it, but maybe it'll help us out with some decent winter weather!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

....in which case, why do they even put them up? I don't like the bashing the met office get from people who know nothing about the weather at all, but placing these extended outlooks up sets themselves up to be shot at!

Back to the models, maybe the huge cold pool in the Atlantic is squeezing the thermal gradients further south this year - ie the jet is more southerly as the cold boundary is more to the south than it should be? I'm sure that's a simplistic was of looking at it, but maybe it'll help us out with some decent winter weather!

 

I would have thought the other way, jet to the south surely means more low pressure, more rain? at low levels in the south

[Polar Maritime]

The Meto issue extended forecasts as is expected from them. And which is an ever growing/learning curb as is Science/Forecasting..These forcasts get amended/updated with any incoming evidence, Which the vast majority of the puplic do not have access to. The best in the world.. Which is why other countries choose and have turned to using Meto data. There is a thread open for wider discussion on this matter so lets get back to the Model Outputs in here, Thanks.

Edited July 25, 2015 by Polar Maritime