Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->

[terrier]

Well looking at this mornings gfs it all looks pretty depressing if it's hot and sunny you crave. Yes they looks like been some warmer days further south. But further north more of the same looking at the gfs00z cool cloudy and at times wet. Looking like August is going to be another cool month overall.

Edited July 28, 2015 by Polar Maritime
To remove double post.

[knocker]

Touch and go for an air frost Friday?

Chart weatherbell

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Morning all, looks like the models are winding up to bring us all some very unsettled weather as we move into August.....

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z shows a hot end to the run in the s/se with 30-32c as we import hot/humid continental air into the UK. Looking at the reliable timeframe, unseasonably cool and unsettled today but tomorrow looks drier with sunny spells, still some showers, mainly in the n/e but then thurs/fri shows a ridge of high pressure from the west with largely fine conditions with good sunny spells and feeling pleasantly warm in the sunshine but still chilly at night, becoming more showery across the northwest of the UK. The weekend and start of next week looks best in the s/se but then briefly turning unsettled and windy, especially for the n/w but becoming generally warmer and through the second half of next week high pressure becomes more influential and it becomes warm and eventually very warm or hot in the south.

Edited July 28, 2015 by Frosty.

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY JULY 28TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A depression to the NE of the UK will move away slowly East with a trough across Central and Northern areas moving SE and weakening tomorrow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Still rather changeable with some dry and bright conditions mixed with occasional rain or showers. Generally on the cool side but a few warmer interludes possible in the South.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast continues to show the flow blowing well South over the Atlantic throughout the coming two weeks. The current arm across the South of the UK weakens and breaks up in the coming days with the flow from the Atlantic a more NE axis across the North through this weekend and next week. The flow returns West to East across the UK later in the period.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows changeable conditions continuing across the UK for most of the next two weesk. The current very cool weather should be replaced by a less cool SW flow later in the week, over the weekend and next week with the SE seeing a notable rise in temperatures to moderately warm levels for a time. Some fronts look like crossing all areas at times especially the North and West with only a little reaching the SE. The end of the run sees cool weather return to all as winds turn more West North-Westerly again.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run sends out a broadly similar message as the operational but brings the warmth in the SE to a close rather sooner as cool Low pressure moves across the UK later next week with some wind and rainfall for all before High pressure to the SW begins to commans some control at the end of the period keeping the UK in NW winds at the end of the run.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters at 14 days show 50% of members with Low pressure of one sort or another close to the North with Westerly winds and rain at times. The other 50% is made up of even worse conditions containing Low pressure across or just to the East of the UK with cool and wet weather for many.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO today shows generally quite slack pressure conditions across the UK at the weekend with Low pressure to the NW gradually extending influence back across the UK towards the end of the 6 day period with rain at times in the North and West and the risk of showers growing elsewhere. Conditions look mset to remain on the cool side overall away from the far SE.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning look broadly similar in stance to the raw data with the advancement from the NW of Low pressure and fronts at the end of Day 5 clearly shown.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM shows a distasteful run this morning with a NW/SE split at the weekend meaning showers or rain at times in the North and West and somewhat warmer and less unsettledness for the SE giving way to another unseasonably cool and wet period next week as a vigorous and deepening depression moves NE over Ireland then Scotland. As this one moves away later another one over the Atlantic looks set to bring yet more cool Atlantic winds with rain at times to end next week.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows that same depression winding itself up over NW Britain as we move into next week replacing the benign and in the SE somewhat warmer conditions for a time at the weekend.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM today thankfully holds this feature further to the NW than GEM or NAVGEM giving the net result of scooping some warm and humid conditions into the South and East where it could stay largely dry later. The North and West will I'm afraid continue with the cool and unsettled theme from this feature to the NW. The run then ends strangely with hot High pressure to the East and cool High pressure to the SW with a small but significant thundery Low pressure over the SW giving some pretty wet and thundery conditions as it engages hot air to it's East.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart today has sharpened the trough to the NW somewhat from yesterdays output suggesting more members are beginning to favour a more unstable period likely then in a broadly Westerly flow with the best of any warmth reserved for the SE only.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There are few definitive trends to be drawn from the models again this morning especially for Southern Britain with all options shown towards both fine and warm and cool and unsettled conditions next week. The trend is clearer for the NW as all models show continuing unsettled and cool weather here.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.5 pts followed by UKMO at 95.0 pts and GFS at 94.2 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 84.6 pts followed by UKMO at 81.6 and GFS at 81.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 55.7 pts over GFS's 50.7 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 36.1 pts to 30.6 pts from GFS.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

MY THOUGHTS It's very difficult to analyze the models in a summary when there are such stark differences between them especially the further out from the present one goes. While no output shows any particularly warm or hot weather in the next week or so the SE comes quite close to high temperatures the other side of the channel at times, especially early next week. This is powered by a deep depression which some output feeds right into the heart of the UK to no doubt give some more very inclement and wet weather for some and this looks quite certain for the North. The Jury is still out on whether the South shares in this as some output including the respected ECM shows this Low further to the NW and leaving the South and SE in the warm SW feed on it's South-eastern flank while the North and West remain affected by it. Thereafter the output becomes a mish-mash of options with the GFS Clusters this morning looking particularly cool and unsavoury for all regions in 14 days time. Not too much credence should be drawn from anything definitive shown beyond 7 days at the moment and with the lack of much in the way of trend we are left to speculate on what might be from the latter end of next week. What looks more certain though is that we might move away in the South at least from the very recent coolness and rain that the North has had all Summer but there is still no concrete evidence or likelihood that any UK wide fine and hot Summer weather is likely during the period covered by the outputs today so while Southerners may continue to look back at this Summer so far as an OK and indifferent one Northerners can correctly say if todays charts verify taking us towards mid August this Summer has been a shocker for them.

 

Next update from 09:00 Wednesday July 28th 2015

[mushymanrob]

i wonder what charts some people look at sometimes...

yes itll be rather unsettled and no prolonged hot spell (yet, anyway) but after we get this cold week out of the way, its all looking pretty average, normal, which for early august isnt too bad. some rain, yes, but temps recovering as we gain higher uppers from sunday onwards. itll be very nice in the sun, hot at times, so whilst theres no heatwave of any duration - theres no washout either, just rather pleasant late early august fayre, its far from a disaster ! (but of course regional variations will occur with the southeast fareing best, the northwest lose out.)

[mushymanrob]

Next update from 09:00 Wednesday July 28th 2015

 

 

wednesdays the 29th sir

[mountain shadow]

i wonder what charts some people look at sometimes...

 - theres no washout either, just rather pleasant late early august fayre, its far from a disaster ! (but of course regional variations will occur with the southeast fareing best, the northwest lose out.)

As you rightly point though Mushy, the regional variation is significant. The latest GFS run has rain almost every day for the North West for the whole run. Not all prolonged, but it is there. At no point throughout the run does the Jetstream get North of the UK. Lows continue to either move through the country or run to the North West.

 

Is the colder Atlantic anomaly restricting low pressure to set up over Greenland and pull the jet with it? Could this be overriding MJO/GWO signals?

[doctormog]

i wonder what charts some people look at sometimes...

 

Ones like this probably http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16818.gif

 

That is the cumulative rainfall total over the next 7 days based on the 06z GFS operational run. Regional variations will give you markedly differing regional perceptions and responses to charts such as this one!

Edited July 28, 2015 by doctormog

[knocker]

Out of interest it should perhaps be noted that both the GEFS and ECM aomalies are forecasting ridging over Scandinavia connecting to the HP over the eastern Pole in the period 4th and the 9th August. Big snag though is that this analysis also had an upper low just the NW of the UK with the associated trough running SSE then south over the UK as it weakened. Bad scenario with the Airflow SW over the UK bringing cool unsettled weather particularly in the north but as the trough weakens it does account for some not too bad weather in the south as has been mooted

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[mushymanrob]

As you rightly point though Mushy, the regional variation is significant. The latest GFS run has rain almost every day for the North West for the whole run. Not all prolonged, but it is there. At no point throughout the run does the Jetstream get North of the UK. Lows continue to either move through the country or run to the North West.

 

Is the colder Atlantic anomaly restricting low pressure to set up over Greenland and pull the jet with it? Could this be overriding MJO/GWO signals?

 

fair point

[summer blizzard]

All looks relatively mobile on the GFS and GEM to me. GFS is relatively good from day 7-10 though. GEM is very unsettled..

 

[summer blizzard]

Euro tries to plume and build pressure but fails. 

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening all,,, It looks as though unsettled weather will be shaking hands with the uk  well into August. Yes some warm ups in the south but alarmingly cold in 56 degrees North!

[Frosty.]

There is some fine and warm weather on this evening's Ecm 12z, especially for the s/se but overall it's a changeable / unsettled run, the most unsettled weather is across the northwest of the UK. Lol anyone who reads my posts will know I've tried really hard to be positive this summer but not sure for how much longer it will last though...anyhoo I cherry picked the highlights of this run, such as they are.

[bluearmy]

Whilst the Atlantic train still has our name on it, you wouldn't say it's very 'marked'. The ens clearly not having too many members clustered on the less settled outcome. My view on today's two sets ens from ECM is that they are an improvement on yesterday's output re a more settled week 2.

[Man With Beard]

I think the biggest disappointment this summer is the complete lack of settled weather for north and western areas. If current charts verify, it looks like they might have missed most of the summer, aside that one rather bizarre day at the beginning of the month.

The south and east is a very different story however, as they have been able to feed off scraps from the continent, and I feel next week will be the same. Tonight's NOAA 6-10 suggests never settled, but warm and thundery interludes throughout the week:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

So a very reasonable start to august in the south-east, even if not wall-to-wall sunshine.

[knocker]

There is no huge change in the anomalies tonight so at the risk of stating the obvious just a simple comment. In general the analysis is quite simple with a Scandinavian ridge and low pressure/trough to the NW of the UK varying in strength and orientation over time but not going away. So there will definitely be a period of more settled weather with the Azores ridge making some impact and it could quite well spread further north although temps will not be any great shakes. Perhaps the end of next week might be a likely candidate. At the end of the day it still comes down to strength and orientation of the trough but it does look likely that there could well be some periods of quite pleasant weather ahead.

 

The key question to my uneducated mind in such matters is why has this upper trough in the eastern Atlantic been so obdurate these last couple of months?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

[Timmytour]

Is this summer turning into a reverse of winter?  Where the south would regard last winter as one to forget, for the North West I imagine it wasn't regarded as too bad. Now we're looking for summer, the North West is searching for it on the latest runs as desperately as the south was looking for winter a few months ago, whereas, all things considered, it's not been too bad for the south East.

 

[knocker]

Can't add anything to my last post so just a couple of observations vis this morning's GFS. Need to keep a beady on the precise track of Mondays depression. At the moment it's running NE of Scotland but still giving 60kt gusts in Stornoway. Small beer for them but not welcome at the beginning of August. Also for the beginning of August the jet for most of the run is quite strong.

Chart weatherbell

 

Finally on the subject of Monday note the difference in temp for the NW and SE and SW France come to that.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited July 29, 2015 by knocker

[terrier]

Well once again the gfs 00z paints a all too familiar picture again this morning a glancing blow of warmth over the weekend for southern parts of the UK. While the north looks cooler and showery. And believe it or not we could be looking at a frost for parts of far north of England tommorow night. August certainly looking like a carbon copy of late July for at least the first 10 days.

[bluearmy]

.

 

The key question to my uneducated mind in such matters is why has this upper trough in the eastern Atlantic been so obdurate these last couple of months?

I assume the SST 's have helped knocks. Tbh, with a repetitive Scandi trough, had we seen a ridge to our west, it would have been even colder! (Think may and first part June)

[Frosty.]

There is only one word to describe the weather this week.. no not that word..lol..Autumnal. These minimum temps in late July on the Gfs 00z are abysmal and seeing all the heat across southern Europe while we endure this cr*p is sad beyond words.

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY JULY 29TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. Low pressure to the NE will continue to move away East with a ridge of High pressure slowly building in from the SW through the next 24-36 hours.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Still rather changeable with some dry and bright conditions mixed with occasional rain or showers. Generally on the cool side but a few warmer interludes possible in the South.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast continues to show the flow blowing well South over the Atlantic throughout the coming two weeks mostly close to the 50 deg North meridian. The strong West to East flow currently across France will weaken and subside over the next 24 hours with a much weaker flow repositioning in a SW to NE flow across the North at the weekend. the flow then gradually strengthens somewhat again later still close to the UK.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today can be best summarised as changeable this morning with more than a hint of a SE/NW or north/South split in the weather for much of the time. The warmest and driest conditions will nearly always be in the South and SE of the UK with only occasional bursts of rain from weakening troughs running East across the UK in a basically SW flow. The North and West for the most parts will see much more influence from the Atlantic with depressions to the North and West sending bands of rain and showers across these areas on a more frequent basis leading to cool conditions here at times.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run sends out a broadly similar message as the operational again today with a small but influential High pressure forming across the South for a time next week giving a warmer and more pleasant interlude before the Atlantic makes a return later in the week with occasional rain and showers, again largely focused more towards the North than the South who could end up with a lot of dry weather if never overly warm.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters at 14 days show nothing alarmist this morning and are a step or two better than yesterdays crop. In essence they show a Westerly flow across the UK in two weeks time with Low pressure to the North and High pressure out to the SW. This would most likely provide the North/South split in the weather that has been prominent for much of this summer thus far.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO today shows slack conditions at the weekend with a band of showers crossing east on Saturday. A Southerly flow sets up on Sunday as pressure falls to the West. While warmer air will be advected North across the UK it isn't long into next week that the Atlantic Low makes inroads across the UK with the return of rain and showers in SW breezes.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning follow the raw data closely and indicate the deepening Low to the West encroaching towards the UK in the Day 4 and 5 time point.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM shows a fairly quiet weekend with rain or showers in the NW slowly crossing all areas on Saturday weakening as it does to just a band of showers in the South. All eyes then focus to the West next week which features a very deep Low pressure developing to the West of Ireland which sends SW winds and occasional rain to all areas. The low is then shown to fill only slowly and move away North at the end of the period with pressure looking to build strongly from the SW by Day 10.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows that same depression winding itself up West of Ireland next week transiting it North late in the week with SW then West winds across the UK delivering rain and showers at times especially but not exclusively to the North and West.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM today holds this feature further out to the West and NW next week and while it will drive conditions over the UK for much of next week the worst of the wind and rain will be towards the North and West while the South and East sees a lot of dry and fine weather with just the occasional shower at times. Temperatures may range from warm in the SE at times to cool elsewhere.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last evening shows a Westerly flow across the Atlantic and the UK from a depression held up to the NW. High pressure out to the SW will likely keep the NW/SE divide in the weather going well into August

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The only trend to be drawn from this morning's output is the desire to maintain a split in the weather from SE to NW with always the best weather likely towards the SE and most unsettled conditions towards the NW.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.6 pts followed by UKMO at 95.0 pts and GFS at 94.3 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 84.9 pts followed by UKMO at 82.0 and GFS at 81.5 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 55.5 pts over GFS's 51.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 36.2 pts to 31.3 pts from GFS.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

MY THOUGHTS To say the weather across the UK this Summer has maintained a theme is something of an understatement with the differences between conditions over the North and South of the UK being quite stark at times on the same day. Of course of late the South has had to endure the same conditions as the North at times with some inclement and cool wet days down here too. Then we come to this morning's set of output which really hold little chance of any major shift in the weather patterning that has been around these shores for what seems an eternity. Basically we have a Jet stream which is flowing way too far South especially over the Atlantic and with pressure having been high over the Greenland area for ages now Low pressure areas are steered across the Atlantic and into the North of the UK. However, picking the meat from the bones reveals some subtle changes in the coming few weeks. It looks like the very cool West and NW winds of late will soon become a thing of the past as the Jet flow changes it's orientation to a more NE flow across Northern Britain to allow some warmer air to advect NE across the UK, especially the South and East and this process begins this weekend. Coupled with this Low pressure may be held further NW next week than has been the case recently keeping the most unsettled conditions more towards the North and West while overall in the next two weeks the South and East may see a lot of dry weather with just the occasional burst of rain. There's still I'm afraid very little chance of a nationwide spell of fine and very warm conditions over the next few weeks with the Jet flow remaining too strong and badly aligned to allow the North especially to join in the better conditions the South may experience at times in the coming weeks. Still with a lot of useable weather in the South over the upcoming forecast period I think complaints about conditions will be limited but I'm afraid of you live in the North and especially the NW another two weeks of cool and unsettled weather looks very likely for you if today's outputs verify.

 

Next update from 09:00 Thursday July 30th 2015

[Summer Sun]

There is only one word to describe the weather this week.. no not that word..lol..Autumnal. These minimum temps in late July on the Gfs 00z are abysmal and seeing all the heat across southern Europe while we endure this cr*p is sad beyond words.

 

At least it should and turn that bit warmer by day