Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->

[knocker]

The ECM anomalies tonight are similar to the GEFS on Tuesday with the slight height rises to the east and the upper trough orientated favourable for a surface evolution favouring some warmth temporarilly ingressing the southern half of Britain, But the transition after that is worse than the GEFS and by the end of the ext period (the 10th) the upper trough is established over the UK portending cool and unsettled.

 

NOAA tonight is also not optimistic with little change vis the upper trough.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

[Timmytour]

Quite a change in the relative short term on the GFS with a much shallower but more moisture laden Low pressure moving north west more quickly across te UK over next weekend.  However maybe because its shallower, it doesn't seem to drag up the heat from the south as before?  

12z

0z 

Edited July 27, 2015 by Timmytour

[knocker]

Looking for some light at the end of the tunnel when viewing this morning's GEFS anomalies and looking at the evolution by the 8th things looked promising with height rises to the west and the upper trough weakened and pushed east with the subsequent NE push of the Azores ridge NE. Olez. Not quite as by the 12th the ridge in the Atlantic had retrogressed west and the dreaded trough was back in prime position. Worst case scenario as this allows depressions to wing around the north of the HP on the jet, destination UK.

 

But this upper analysis does seem to be becoming more volatile and I'm not without hope that the earlier trend may become more established leading to increasing Azores influence as perhaps indicated previously by some esteemed posters.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited July 27, 2015 by knocker

[Frosty.]

Really encouraging Ecm 00z this morning, first of all, the second half of this week looks much better than the first half with a ridge of high pressure building in from the west after midweek with increasingly fine and pleasantly warm weather, especially for the south of the UK. Then looking ahead to next week, the ecm shows what would be the start of a more generally settled and warmer spell with high pressure in the ascendancy.

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY JULY 27TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. An Atlantic depression will move East across Northern England today and the North Sea later tonight and tomorrow. A slow moving trough will lie across Central Britain with a strong Westerly flow over the South.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Still rather changeable with some dry and bright conditions mixed with occasional rain or showers. Generally on the cool side but a few warmer interludes possible in the South.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast continues to show the flow blowing strongly across Southern Britain and Northern France. It slowly weakens and splits later in the week with one arm over Iberia while the other drifts gently further North. The axis then runs across Scotland through week 2, still weak before strengthening and moving back South again at the end of the second week.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a mixed bag over the next two weeks. The current windy and cool regime will be replaced by calmer weather from midweek with a lot of dry weather but still some showers in the NW. Temperatures will remain rather suppressed given the time of year but it could be marginally warmer in the SE next weekend. Through Week 2 things stay rather benign ith the best conditions in the South near a ridge. Then late in the period cool NW winds around a deep depression to the NE brings a return to cool and changeable weather to most parts. 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run looks rather better in regard to warmer conditions across the SE from later this week and the South seems to be largely dry from the same time as High pressure to the SW throws a ridge our way. There will still be some more changeable conditions for the North and more generally late in the period with the best weather over the two weeks likely to focus around the South and SW.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters at 14 days show not a lot of cheer with 40% of members wanting a cool NW flow over the UK at that time. 25% show a very inclement trough across the UK from Low pressure close to Eastern England while the remainder show variations on a cool West or NW theme but less unsettled than the rest.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO today shows a slender ridge developing across the South from midweek with quieter and drier if not overly warm conditions as a result. The ridge looks like building further over the weekend with fine and warmer weather likely for England and Wales with more changeable conditions restricted to the North and NW. 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning also show slack High pressure developing over the South of the UK later in the week returning dry, pleasant conditions following the next few days of windy and changeable conditions with rain and showers.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM shows a similar theme in regard to better, calmer weather later in the week but it takes a little longer for warmer weather of note to move into the SE before fronts reclaim some territory over the UK next week firstly to the NW and eventually to the SW with rain perhaps thundery for a time taking it's time to reach all areas from the West innitially and SW later.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today is less kind in bringing the better conditions later this week and the weekend instead showing showery Low pressure slipping South over Ireland and later deepening as it drifts back NE over the UK 1 week from now maintaining the unsettled and largely rather cool theme going.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM today looks very complex in it's movements of slack High and Low pressure in the coming week to 10 days. This morning's offering shows some improvements later this week but keeps the warmer temperatures over Europe until a deepening Low moves quickly NE over the NW next weekend and sucks warmer air then up into the SE. Some rain would affect the North and West in particular from this feature and maybe the South too briefly. The end of the run shows pressure rebuilding across the UK later next week with drier conditions for many as a result.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  this morning is an improvement on last night's pulling the trough to the NW further NW and a much better aligned ridge towards Southern Britain.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend again this morning is focusing on a return to a more NW/SE split to develop in the weather with the driest and warmest conditions towards the SE

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.5 pts followed by UKMO at 95.0 pts and GFS at 94.2 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 84.8 pts followed by UKMO at 81.6 and GFS at 81.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 56.0 pts over GFS's 50.7 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 35.2 pts to 29.0 pts from GFS.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

MY THOUGHTS The fog seems as thick as ever this morning as all models seem to struggle with what seems short term synoptics let alone longer term projections. The message this week seems more or less agreed though with some small scale differences between the outputs illustrated. Leaving these aside the general message is for the current windy and cool weather to be eroded from the South and West by midweek as a slack ridge builds across the South bringing dry and fine weather in light winds and sunny spells. Temperatures aren't expected to be spectacular though as the inherent air across the UK originated from Northern latitudes. Then from the weekend the waters muddy as there seems a variety of options shown, none of which would deliver anything particularly noteworthy or bad and some may in fact bring a lot of fine and dry weather if never overly warm. There could be a window of opportunity for the SE to get some warmth from Europe at the coming weekend but it looks favourable to push that away East or SE again later as all output that goes that far in the future has the desire to bring back unsettled and cool weather from the Atlantic again towards the end of the period with GFS showing a very chilly NW flow at the end highlighted by it's clusters this morning. In among all this confusion on specifics the outcome will probably end up that a NW/SE split in the weather is the maintained theme of the weather with the North gaining the most momentum from an Atlantic that refuses to lie down this Summer. While uppers across the UK continue from almost all output to show below average levels across most of Britain it looks unlikely that any sustained warmth is likely over the two weeks away from the SE but it looks equally unlikely that much in the way of rainfall will affect the South either through much of the period.

 

Next update from 09:00 Tuesday July 28th 2015

[knocker]

The ext ECM anomalies hint at a pressure rise to the west, not quite as emphatic as the GEFS, before reverting to the trough over the UK and zonality by the end of the run.

[Frosty.]

I haven't posted much recently but I have been reading the discussion and it's been depressing reading at times. Looking at this morning's output, there are signs of more summerlike conditions at times during the next few weeks, later this week for example, especially across the south / southeast with drier and warmer weather and then next week we could see a strong ridge of high pressure building across at least the southern half of the UK, as shown on the Gfs 00z, the Ecm 00z looks even more promising as next week goes on...here's hoping for better times ahead.

Edited July 27, 2015 by Paul
Removed un-needed comments.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 00z mean shows good support for a pressure rise with an increasingly fine and warmer spell during the extended outlook, especially for the south of the UK.

[Summer Sun]

GFS 06z brings 2 days of heat early next week some parts of the south get back to around 30c

 

 

[mountain shadow]

GFS 06z brings 2 days of heat early next week some parts of the south get back to around 30c

 

 

Regrettably for the North and West, we would simply replace cold rain for warmer rain. The 6z has the Jet Stream pointing at some part of the Uk for the whole run.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z shows a hot few days across the s/e next week which is a nice welcome surprise. Looking at the next few weeks, the 6z eventually shows a lot of fine and warm weather for the south and east in particular with frequent ridging whereas lower heights to the northwest mean the north west of the UK continues to be more generally cooler and unsettled than elsewhere but with fine and warmer intervals but for the south/southeast of the BI it's not a bad outlook at all.

[Napplewh]

Models starting to indicate hot weather - GFS is very optimistic about hot weather in England! Hope it reaches Leeds

Not sure that this will verify though i have seen this before in June - GFS predicted a two week heatwave and instead we had 1 decent day! 

[mushymanrob]

thats pretty good agreement at day 11 (midway between the 8-14 day anomaly).



the gfs 06z @ t264 appears to show more or less what the 8-14 day charts suggests... of course it means the ecm 00z is unlikely to verify IF the anomaly chart for that period ( c 7th ) stays more or less as it is now.

there does appear to be conflicting signals... the met o, gp, tamara, and others suggest a possible pressure rise over north west europe in early august (by week 2?) and this seems to be hinted at in some data output, including the current ecm. the noaa anomaly charts though do not support pressure rise over northwest europe, but do allow for it (as depicted in the above charts) over central/southern ridging north into scandinavia.

it will be interesting to see, in 2 weeks time, which analysis of available data becomes reality.

until then we have some rather cool, unsettled weather to endure before things become drier, brighter and a little more pleasant.

Edited July 27, 2015 by mushymanrob

[NL]

The Gfs 6z shows a hot few days across the s/e next week which is a nice welcome surprise. Looking at the next few weeks, the 6z eventually shows a lot of fine and warm weather for the south and east in particular with frequent ridging whereas lower heights to the northwest mean the north west of the UK continues to be more generally cooler and unsettled than elsewhere but with fine and warmer intervals but for the south/southeast of the BI it's not a bad outlook at all.

If this comes off Karl it could be the start of a settled, warm and sometimes hot August as Stewart (GP) alluded to last week. Maybe Stewart is onto something with his theories on LRF's if August's settled conditions come into fruition. Would be interesting to see if he comes on with a winter forecast although I'm sure work restrictions may not allow this. Edited July 27, 2015 by DiagonalRedLine
To remove the double quote.

[Gael_Force]

Folks usually show the monthly CFS but there's weekly run as well. The last few runs have not been good for August.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=nhem&pkg=z500a5d&runtime=2015072700&fh=114&xpos=0&ypos=176

 

In case I'm accused of undue pessimism, the MO text has changed a bit for the longer August outlook.

 

 

UK Outlook for Tuesday 11 Aug 2015 to Tuesday 25 Aug 2015:

There are signals for more settled and generally drier conditions to predominate for much of the UK through this period, but more especially in the south and east. However, there is still a chance that some spells of more unsettled weather could push in from the west at times, most likely being confined to northern and western parts of the UK. Temperatures on the whole will be near or a little below average for the time of year, with any very warm or hot weather across southern areas probably brief in nature.

Edited July 27, 2015 by Gael_Force

[Frosty.]

If this comes off Karl it could be the start of a warm sometimes hot August as Stewart (GP) alluded to last week. Maybe Stewart is onto something with his theories on LRF's if August's settled conditions come into fruition. Would be interesting to see if he comes on with a winter forecast although I'm sure work restrictions may not allow this.

Fingers crossed NL, there are reasons to be positive about August, it's expected to start fine and warm on Saturday before we see another unsettled blip although the SE could stay fine, and then from the second half of next week onwards, the s/e especially look like having decent summer weather, predominantly fine and warm and occasionally very warm. Edited July 27, 2015 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

Folks usually show the monthly CFS but there's weekly run as well. The last few runs have not been good for August.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=nhem&pkg=z500a5d&runtime=2015072700&fh=114&xpos=0&ypos=176

The CFS is not my favourite model tbh...

[Gael_Force]

The CFS is not my favourite model tbh...

I doubt you'll be alone in that ....

 

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS is showing a pretty cool Northerly flow from Tuesday and continuing through till wk-end. With single digit overnight minima for the vast majority of the UK, Especially the far North and parts of Wales/Northern England where there's the chance of ground frost, And cold enough for some Wintry showers over the Scottish Mountains as -2 850's get dragged into the mix.

Edited July 27, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Napplewh]

Wow Minus 1 in leeds on Friday morning! Amazing forecast! Possibility of snow>/ 

[Polar Maritime]

Wow Minus 1 in leeds on Friday morning! Amazing forecast! Possibility of snow>/ 

 

Remember the chart is for ground Temp not air, Certainly no chance of Snow away from the Scottish Mountains. Here is the air Temp for the same time, Certainly a cool week coming up if not cold in parts for July as we enter the last Month of Summer.

Edited July 27, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Nick F]

Remember the chart is for ground Temp not air, Certainly no chance of Snow away from the Scottish Mountains. Here is the air Temp for the same time, Certainly a cool week coming up if not cold in parts for July as we enter the last Month of Summer.

 

If it's any consolation, New Foundland's sufferering one of it's coolest July's on record and they only get a few months of warm weather each year! They've nicknamed it 'Julyuary' - which seems apt for us the next few days ...

 

We only slowly warm up towards the weekend, back into the low 20s highs by Saturday in the south, high teens at best Tuesday/Weds.

 

The carrot on the end of the stick for those wanting summer back is 06z GFS's heat for the south next Monday and Tuesday  ... unfortunately 00z ECM looks more zonal/changeable

 

 

 

00z GFS had the warmth confined to the SE, be interesting to see if the 12z runs pick up on it again ...

[Milhouse]

An end to this extremely unseasonable cool weather is in sight. Saturday should see temperatures back up into the low 20s over much of England but more cloud and rain will keep temperatures pegged back further north. Friday too is looking a decent day too away from the NW.

[Milhouse]

UKMO has ditched its unsettled outlook of yesterday and now has joined the rest of the models. At t+144 it looks like its gearing up for a warm southerly with low pressure to the west not really going anywhere fast.

 

[knocker]

Not that it will verify but the most interesting aspect of the GFS run is the low it has developing over Spain on Tuesday 4th August which then meanders through France and settles over the eastern Channel by Thursday 6th, Bringing with it great joy.

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