Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->

[knocker]

maybe.... but im only an amateur with little technical knowlege just trying to find the easiest, least complicated way of seeing what might lie ahead upto 2 weeks time. hence the noaa charts suit my needs for trying to understand the general pattern. i cant claim to be always right...im not... but at least ill try.

 

Hey I wasn't  having a go, just a bit of banter. Your opinion is as equally valid as mine, probably more so.

[mushymanrob]

Hey I wasn't  having a go, just a bit of banter. Your opinion is as equally valid as mine, probably more so.

Oh sorry if i came across like that i didnt think you were matey.

Meanwhile the 12z gfs doesnt make promising viewing and refuses to suggest any strong pressure build into august ( as far as it goes).

This isnt a good sign.

[Frosty.]

Meanwhile the 12z gfs doesnt make promising viewing and refuses to suggest any strong pressure build into august ( as far as it goes).

This isnt a good sign.

You forgot to mention there is a spell of high pressure from the end of next week which lasts well into the following week on the gfs 12z with dry weather and sunny spells, not warm but pleasant in the sun before it all goes Pete tong later in FI. As for the August outlook, the met office are on-board with largely fine and warm weather for most of August which is good enough for me.

Edited July 22, 2015 by Frosty.

[mushymanrob]

You forgot to mention there is a spell of high pressure from the end of next week which lasts well into the following week on the gfs 12z with dry weather and sunny spells, not warm but pleasant in the sun. As for the August outlook, the met office are on-board with largely fine and warm weather for most of August which is good enough for me.

I didnt forget it, i ignored it as until theres support for it i dont believe itll happen as the 12z predicts. The uppers arent impressive, far from it.

[Frosty.]

I didnt forget it, i ignored it as until theres support for it i dont believe itll happen as the 12z predicts. The uppers arent impressive, far from it.

You are way too negative mushy, there has been lots of good charts for the early August period today and previously,there are good signs for August, I'm surprised you refuse to acknowledge that!

[William of Walworth]

I'm remaining pretty cautious at the moment. It will take a few more runs over coming days to give us a clearer picture. Some models do suggest that there MIGHT be a reasonable degree of HP influence (aka 'improvement ') later next week though.

Edited July 22, 2015 by William of Walworth

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean shows a more settled and warmer pattern becoming established through early august as the Azores high builds into the uk, the PFJ is pushed way northwest. These nice benign looking charts tie in with what Exeter have been and still are predicting for most of next month...reasons to be positive..plenty.

Edited July 22, 2015 by Frosty.

[knocker]

The GEFS anomaly at T312 shows the weak Iceland low and a flattish westerly flow Atlantic to NW Europe to NW poised for the March of the HP.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited July 22, 2015 by knocker

[summer blizzard]

Euro out and unsettled to day 8..

 

We do get a high move in for day 9 and 10 however interestingly it looks to be a cool high for the time of year.

 

 

[summer blizzard]

GFS largely as bad to day 8..

 

 

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

 

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

reading  all the gloom on here don't  look into  fantasy world it not looking  nice   mind you us people  in the  east need time to cool ff as its been far to hot and we need  dare i say it rain!!!

[mushymanrob]

You are way too negative mushy, there has been lots of good charts for the early August period today and previously,there are good signs for August, I'm surprised you refuse to acknowledge that!

I call it realistic my friend... The ops are jumping around showing high pressure here, then high pressure there... But the uppers arent good for heat in any run this side of t300. All this in the hight of summer... Yes it could be worse but theres precious little hope of anything above average in the next two weeks.

Plus todays noaa still refuse to allow a strong, lasting, pressure rise into early august, despite what some data sources suggest.

Average at best into early august... Before then this month is looking like going out very much below par..

Edited July 22, 2015 by mushymanrob

[johnholmes]

You are way too negative mushy, there has been lots of good charts for the early August period today and previously,there are good signs for August, I'm surprised you refuse to acknowledge that!

 

The Met O,  reading their further outlook beyond 6-15 days, has this phrase

'..It looks as though we will see increasing amounts of fine, dry weather across most parts of the UK as high pressure gradually builds from the southwest by the second week of August...'

This fits in quite well with my interpretation of the anomaly charts, see the NOAA selection link below.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

There is nothing even on the 8-15 day outlook (to 5 August) that would suggest what some on here are talking up from GFS synoptic output, no sign of either ridging or height anomalies in a region that would favour what GFS is showing at times.

IF we are to have sun and heat then, other than perhaps a single day here and there there is little chance of any more than that before the second week in August.

sorry if that pours cold water on things but it seems unlikely that any major change in upper wave length can occur to create these conditions prior to the dates given.

I would not be unhappy to be wrong but I think the odds are against it happening.

To back this up take a look at the GFS MJO outputs both actual and forecast, neither show anything that might suggest a major upper air pattern change to support heat for any part of the UK. The orbit is almost at zero in 1(actual) and forecast to be about the same in 2 or 3.

link

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foroper.shtml

I am never really convinced that the MJO gives as good guidance in summer compared to winter for 500mb anomalies anyway.

Edited July 22, 2015 by johnholmes

[mushymanrob]

I have seen the 8-14 day noaa output and have to say mushy GP is really onto something of the Rossby wave. It's becoming apparent now.

Wheres the evidence for this? Not on the noaa charts thats for sure.

Im not dissing gp's thoughts, nor others, but to date theres no sign on the noaa charts of a strong, lasting, anticyclonic spell. Gp can be wrong you know, but his post suggested presdure build outside the current noaa chart timescale, so he, hopefully, will be proven right but not before week two in august which ties in with what john has posted.

[Weather Boy]

My take on the next 5-12 days is that it looks like we are in for what for the south is probably the worst week of the summer so far with a series of lows, some of a dartboard nature.  For example:

 

 

I put my hands up to cherry picking there, but this chart is not untypical.  Whilst I am sure some days, especially in the south will be relatively good, dry days look to be relatively few even there.   There's no sign of it being topical wetness either: some days will be really cool with charts like this (although if it verified this would probably produce a dry day in most of Ireland and at least the SW quarter of the UK):

 

 

However, the models have been pretty resolute in picking out a change to HP round about Saturday, starting in the south and west, but spreading throughout the country.  The 12z is slightly more resolute than the 6z with HP nosing in:

 

 

ECM has it faster at the moment:

 

 

Many of the models do not go out that far, but those that do have appear to broadly agree over various runs that we are looking at advancement of HP from the west on or around 1 August.  That is a long way ahead in forecasting terms and the usual caveats apply, but I don't see any reason to doubt the likelihood of such a set-up beyond those usual caveats.  To bolster the near cross-model agreement we have:--

 

1. The Meto have been rock solid in calling for settled weather for the start of August (rock solid that is, apart from John's post - I don't know what has caused that!)

 

2. GP's "interjection" a few pages back lends cogent support.

 

3. The ops enjoy ensemble support by and large.

 

4. Frosty is in a good mood!

 

There is no sign of it being hot at this point, but this is no surprise as HPs often advance from the west bringing with them cool northerly flows before they assert their dominance over the UK.  In any case, the presence or absence of heat depends of the orientation of the High, and we are way too early to be starting to second guess that at this stage.

 

I therefore would consider this to be something of an epic fail if what appears to be some unseasonable, wet, windy and cool weather does not give way to something more summary the weekend after next.  

 

That's my little basic and very low level analysis for what it is worth.

[damianslaw]

Sticking to the reliable as I always do to start with and yes an unsettled distinctly cool outlook for late July and what we class as high summer, poor for anyone wanting any real warmth and sustained sunshine, culprit the polar front jet setting up shop across the country thanks to unfavourably positioned heights to the north west and a recipe for low pressure systems and slow moving fronts to become anchored over our shores.

 

Longer term - hints that the jet will retreat away to the NW allowing ridge development from the azores to influence conditions, end result perhaps something much more sustained in terms of settled weather, and indeed much warmer, but whether this is the prelude to a major pattern change and a generally warm sunny dry period is conjecture at this stage. Many models and forecasts in late June and early July were going for repeat plume episodes with the trough coming unstuck to our west - this never manifested itself, so as ever treat long range model outputs and forecasts with some caution, though it is noteworthy how many forecasts were saying August would be the better summer month this year..

[mushymanrob]

Wheres the evidence for this? Not on the noaa charts thats for sure.

Im not dissing gp's thoughts, nor others, but to date theres no sign on the noaa charts of a strong, lasting, anticyclonic spell. Gp can be wrong you know, but his post suggested presdure build outside the current noaa chart timescale, so he, hopefully, will be proven right but not before week two in august which ties in with what john has posted.

 

one thing i will add...

the current 8-14 day anomaly chart does 'open up' the gap between the isobars, suggesting that whilst theres no strong high for that period, pressure should be generally higher, so not as wet and with weak, transitory ridges.

ok if you dont like heat, ok if you like average, but not really ok if its a decent hot settled spell youd like. (in this timeframe)

[Snowyowl9]

A difference between ECM and the UKM and GFS on the T120 chart,ECM squeezes that low out of the way,then HP builds.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

 

[johnholmes]

The EC-GFS anomaly output this morning has quite a difference between the two. GFS keep the marked trough whilst EC shows some ridging developing over the UK. Neither indicates any +ve height anomalies close to the UK, link below

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

If NOAA 6-10 this evening shows a chart similar to EC then that will be the first signs of more settled weather. If it does not then we will probably find that the EC next output has dropped the ridging. All 3, in my experience, need to be showing very similar patterns to be able to put real confidence in the charts they are indicating.

 

just to make clear the time scales I generally talk about, they start around 6 days from today and end about 15 sometimes as far as 18 days ahead.

care needs to be taken when anyone compares those of us trying to look at extended periods ahead, mine stops at 15 days usually, others are trying to look even further ahead. They do not necessarily show the same patterns.

Edited July 23, 2015 by johnholmes

[Summer Sun]

Huge differences between GFS and ECM at t168

 

You can either have a 985mb low from GFS

 

 

Or high pressure from ECM

 

[Weather Boy]

Huge differences between GFS and ECM at t168

 

You can either have a 985mb low from GFS

 

 

Or high pressure from ECM

 

 

True, but this is a difference in timing, as look as the GFS 6z for 1 August:

 

Both models get there in the end but with GFS we have to wait until the weekend for HP whereas ECM wants to get there faster.

 

If you are doing something outdoors on Thursday and Friday though, the difference between the two is very important!

[RobR]

True, but this is a difference in timing, as look as the GFS 6z for 1 August:

 

Both models get there in the end but with GFS we have to wait until the weekend for HP whereas ECM wants to get there faster.

 

If you are doing something outdoors on Thursday and Friday though, the difference between the two is very important!

Yes like getting married on Friday hopefully outside but looking less likely. Gutted that the weather is likely to spoil the occasion but this is Britain!

[knocker]

It has to be said looking at the ext ECM anomalies this morning they are not showing any significant height rises over the UK or to the east and the UK remains in a flat , cool, zonal flow although the trough is a weal affair.. Be interesting to see what the EC32 comes up with tomorrow,

[Frosty.]

After an unsettled start to next week, the Ecm 00z shows high pressure building in from the south west with increasingly pleasant conditions, by the end of the run it looks like warmer continental air is poised to make inroads beyond T+240 hours.

Sorry about the charts being back to front

Edited July 23, 2015 by DiagonalRedLine
Charts in order for ya, Frosty! - DRL

[Weather Boy]

Yes like getting married on Friday hopefully outside but looking less likely. Gutted that the weather is likely to spoil the occasion but this is Britain!

 

Who's saying that the GFS is correct?  There is definitely hope that the ECM will triumph and you will have a good day.  That remains to be seen.

 

Whatever happens with the weather, though, enjoy your day!

Edited July 23, 2015 by Weather Boy