Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->

[Milhouse]

The latest GEFS mean is the strongest indication yet of high pressure setting up in a favourable position for warm and settled conditions to develop heading into August.

 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z makes better viewing by the weekend in the s/se with pressure rising and more widely across England / wales next week with a return to summery weather, becoming dry, warm / very warm, even locally hot and sunny at times with a thundery low later in the week followed by more fine and warm weather, especially for the south. I just can't get enthused by unseasonably cool charts with northerly winds and ground frosts in july/august, I want to see a return of warm weather for the last month or so of summer

[knocker]

Once again this evening's GEFS anomalies flatter to deceive. After this week it has the upper trough orientated SE west of the UK gradually weakening which will allow periods of warmer weather into the southern half of the UK. It then develops a Scandinavian ridge accompanied by subtle height changes to the west which bodes well for a scandinavian/Atlantic HP connection. An idea that was floated a number of days ago. alas this is short lived with the low pressure Iceland way poking it's nose in again. Considering the weather we have been experiencing this isn't a totally bad outlook and I can't help wondering that as the GEFS and ECM keep toying with this HP connection it may eventually come to fruition.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited July 27, 2015 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z shows an improving picture after midweek with the current cool, windy unsettled spell replaced by lighter winds, more in the way of fine and pleasantly warmer weather, a surge of warm air pushing north on Sunday with low to mid 20's celsius and a nice pressure rise early next week with warm and settled conditions for a while, it could be a lot worse.

Edited July 27, 2015 by Frosty.

[bluearmy]

The end week 2 gefs looking rather more amplified than for quite a while. far too early to guess where this amplification may verify but it does offer the potential for a more settled or unsettled outlook rather than changeable.

[ANYWEATHER]

Unfortunately the model output does not paint a pretty picture both ecm and gfs  show a big low moving towards the Uk during the weekend after that in cloud cuukoo land some very unsettled charts.....      

Edited July 27, 2015 by ANYWEATHER

[mushymanrob]

We'll just have to wait and see what Stewart has to say tomorrow whether the GWO and mjo have changed course or not.

May i ask, has stewart said he was going to post tomorrow? Id have thought we could all view the mjo and gwo...

[Methuselah]

Woe betide all those 'L Nino's' that happen to be listed in The Yellow Pages!!

[mushymanrob]

I note todays noaa anomaly charts have not changed. So they still refuse to support pressure build over northwest europe.

So the intrigue continues...

[Milhouse]

Unfortunately the model output does not paint a pretty picture both ecm and gfs  show a big low moving towards the Uk during the weekend after that in cloud cuukoo land some very unsettled charts.....      

 

Apart from the far north and west Sunday is fine and warm on the GFS. So for most of the UK, the presence of the low pressure is meaningless

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 27, 2015 by Milhouse

[Nouska]

The Ecm 12z shows an improving picture after midweek with the current cool, windy unsettled spell replaced by lighter winds, more in the way of fine and pleasantly warmer weather, a surge of warm air pushing north on Sunday with low to mid 20's celsius and a nice pressure rise early next week with warm and settled conditions for a while, it could be a lot worse.

 

The deterministic run EPS (Reading) just clips 21C on Sunday but the control run has higher temperatures for a couple of days - scope for better things in future runs.

 

[bluearmy]

Don't bet on the Atlantic system not getting further south at day 6 than the ops currently show

[summer blizzard]

Euro not really backing a settled outcome. It's still relatively warm but low pressure continues to rule.

 

[phil nw.]

Still no strong signals for any August heat but having said that maybe just a hint in week 2 of some improvements, especially further south and east.

A look at the day 10 naefs and ecm ht anomalies

 

a shrinking of the Atlantic trough and again the appetite for Continetal/Scandinavia heights.

A better setup for some warmth to escape north towards the UK.

Nothing to suggest anything out of the ordinary but let's face it ordinary would be an improvement on this quite notable July coolness.

 

 

[IanR]

latest bbc long range suggests another cooler than average august, so thats 4 month in a row if it happens, which I would bet on

[knocker]

The latest ext ECM anomaly still has the upper trough as the dominant feature.

[Skullzrulerz]

latest bbc long range suggests another cooler than average august, so thats 4 month in a row if it happens, which I would bet on

Is there a link to this please?

[Frosty.]

Euro not really backing a settled outcome. It's still relatively warm but low pressure continues to rule.

 

Low pressure doesn't rule the Ecm 12z at all! There are several fine and warm days on this run.

[knocker]

Is there a link to this please?

 

it doesn't say quite that.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Nouska]

it doesn't say quite that.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

I think he is talking about the BBC month ahead forecast.

 

http://www.bbc.com/weather/2635167#outlook

 

It does mention cool in last paragraph.

 

There are some signs that the weather could turn more friendly during the second part of August, but it's not a particularly strong signal so there is a large degree of uncertainty and certainly potential for occasional brief unsettled spells. Equally, any hotter weather is unlikely to last for more than a day or two. Overall, it's looking possible that this August could follow the example of last August in coming out cooler than average overall.

[knocker]

Well not too much to say draztik as you realise. Anyway a brief EC32 update.

 

Starting from the end of the ext ECM period that's already been covered.

 

Up until the 17th the upper trough centred north and running south of the UK holds sway. Thus mainly W/NW airstream bringing unsettled weather particularly in the north while the south may enjoy some better days.

 

After that until the end of the run (28th) the trough weakens so the analysis is broadly speaking lower pressure Greenland east with the Azores HP centred WSW mid Atlantic thus a weakish airflow from a westerly quadrant to all of the uK.

 

Summary

 

Remaining unsettled until the 17th although better in the south and then becoming more settled for ALL of the UK. Temps throughout the run are a tad below average although when it comes to the detail there will obviously be incursions of warmer air, mainly in the south, to give some reasonable periods. Obviously not great but providing some reasonable levels of sunshine the second half of August should be better than the first which of course is not saying a great deal.

Edited July 28, 2015 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

Please can we keep the BBC musings to the relevant threads.

 

Thanks, PM.

[knocker]

I'm not bothering to pick the bones out of the morning GFS run that can be summed up thus.

 

[mushymanrob]

He says he'll post once a week mushy.

 

cheers, i expect he will change his previous post. there are still no signs of high pressure building over northwestern europe.

 

latest bbc long range suggests another cooler than average august, so thats 4 month in a row if it happens, which I would bet on

 

.... which will alter as we enter november to being 4 months of above average temps!

[mb018538]

I wouldn't say the morning runs are overly bad?

Low to the west spins up some warmer air than this muck we're currently dealing with.....yes it's a bit of a NW/SE split as is usual for this sort of set-up, but at least it's warmer!

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png

Rather than the T850 mean of all GFS runs being around 4c as it is presently, it hovers around 9-10c....which should translate as low to mid twenties, witha small chance of something hotter. My straw clutching hobby shows no limits!