Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY JULY 8TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A depression will move away East towards Scandinavia today with a ridge of High pressure moving in behind the NW airflow over the UK today.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with some rain at times but driest in the South with some short warm spells at times.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The GFS Jet Stream Forecast continues to show the flow well South of it's normal summertime positioning undulating North and South across the UK several times over the next couple of weeks.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a North/South split in weather type over the next few weeks with High pressure tantalizingly close enough to the South at times for some fine and warm conditions. However, Westerly winds across the North throughout in association with Low pressure crossing East to the North will deliver occasional rain and showers in cooler winds for these areas. there will be some High pressure interludes in the North too notably in a weeks time but the displaced jet flow quickly pushes it away and brings all areas into cooler and changeable weather towards the end of the period.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run maintains the general theme of the operational though day to day comparisons are well wide of the mark of the other. Nevertheless the theme of the North/South split in conditions holds good with the most of any meaningful rainfall restricted to more Northern areas while the South stays drier and brighter for more of the time.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters for the 14 Day point show two options likely in the weather pattern in two weeks time. One has High pressure to the West and a cool but relatively settled Northerly flow across the UK or High pressure to the South as currently with a continuation of the North/South split in conditions.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO this morning is not wonderful again this morning as after a fair start to the weekend the weather goes downhill and eventually cooler again with some rain for all as winds swing from SW to NW by early next week in association with a depression crossing East to the North.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a ridge of High pressure crossing East over the coming days followed by a Westerly flow across the UK, relatively weak in the South. With weak fronts in the airflow some occasional rain is likely almost anywhere but chiefly in the North for much of the time but the South on Sunday.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today shows another variation on the same theme as the rest with rather more rain at times for all at times including the South later as Low pressure and troughs edge across all areas from the West later. Temperatures will be best across the South with the coolest conditions across the North.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows no change to the message already laid down by the other output in maintaining a Westerly feed of wind from the Atlantic delivering some rain at times, mostly but not exclusively to the North with temperatures ranging from near average in the North to average or a little above at times in the South.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM today is not pretty and looks a lot like UKMO at the day 6 stage with an active depression moving East to the North and a cool NW flow sweeping down over the Uk with showers and rain a possibility for all especially in the North and East. This forms a catalyst for pressure then to build North through the Atlantic and keep winds in a cool Northerly quadrant over the UK at the end of the period and though mostly dry for many by then it could end up disappointingly cloudy and chilly in exposure.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last evening begins to show that there are an increasing amount of members who show a build of pressure to the West of the UK in 10 days with a slow trend towards a Northerly flow possible across the UK displacing the rather warm uppers across the South of recent output. As a postscript to this this morning's chart has strengthened that theme..

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The only trend I can detect this morning is that winds could turn more Northerly in the latter stages of the period as pressure possibly shows signs of building North through the Atlantic in 10-14 days time

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.0 pts followed by UKMO at 95.1 pts and GFS at 94.7 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 85.2 pts followed by GFS at 81.7 and UKMO at 81.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 51.5 pts over GFS's 48.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 31.2 pts to 27.8 pts from GFS.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS Once again this morning I find myself reporting on a set of charts which differ wildly day to day beyond day 5 or so but still sing from a pattern of weather which doesn't look like changing any time soon. Pressure remains High to the South of the UK maintaining Europe in a pleasant Summer of weather with very warm or hot conditions locked in down there. For us we continue to lie on the Northern flank of this belt of High pressure which is unable for the most part to ridge North into the UK for any length of time before a Jet stream too far South dislodges any ridges back from where they came a few days later. A typical example of this is this coming few days when pressure builds across the South at least to give some fine and warm conditions for a time before the Atlantic wins back by Sunday and it becomes a case of 'as you were' thereafter. It doesn't mean complete doom and gloom though as there will be some fine and dry weather for all at times and in the South it could be occasionally warm. Then we have to look forward into the longer term projections to see if there are any signs of change there. What I can see is a possibility of it becoming no better for heat seekers as there seems growing confidence between the models that pressure may build North through the Atlantic later next week pulling winds into a Northerly quarter and while this might mean a continuation of quite dry conditions in the South and West winds from the North will peg temperatures back towards normal at best. It's all a case of clutching straws to find any way out of the current locked in pattern so I wouldn't say this change is a definite yet but at the moment I don't see any chance of a UK wide heatwave any time soon as the Jet stream forecast across the North Atlantic continues to look unfavourable so it's a case of pick and choose the short warm and fine periods in the South when they come as they might not last long before the next wave of Atlantic fronts arrive. 

 

Next update from 08:00 Thursday July 9th 2015

[knocker]

It has to be said that there is still no agreement between the GEFS and ECM anomalies with the ECM going for sharper ridging to the west, our trough further east and a trough Greenland which it mainly loses in the ext period. Given this discrepancy there remains uncertainty over the evolution and hope springs eternal.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited July 8, 2015 by knocker

[carinthian]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY JULY 8TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A depression will move away East towards Scandinavia today with a ridge of High pressure moving in behind the NW airflow over the UK today.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with some rain at times but driest in the South with some short warm spells at times.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The GFS Jet Stream Forecast continues to show the flow well South of it's normal summertime positioning undulating North and South across the UK several times over the next couple of weeks.

Good summary as usual Gibby. Think its time for me to cut and run from my stay in the UK. Very nice it was in Sussex,although the Lancashire cold winds earlier were a shock to my system. As you mention that Euro heat looks temping and a early return to Austria for the peak hiking season in August beckons via a chilled break in Ibiza. Keep up the good work.

C

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a North/South split in weather type over the next few weeks with High pressure tantalizingly close enough to the South at times for some fine and warm conditions. However, Westerly winds across the North throughout in association with Low pressure crossing East to the North will deliver occasional rain and showers in cooler winds for these areas. there will be some High pressure interludes in the North too notably in a weeks time but the displaced jet flow quickly pushes it away and brings all areas into cooler and changeable weather towards the end of the period.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run maintains the general theme of the operational though day to day comparisons are well wide of the mark of the other. Nevertheless the theme of the North/South split in conditions holds good with the most of any meaningful rainfall restricted to more Northern areas while the South stays drier and brighter for more of the time.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters for the 14 Day point show two options likely in the weather pattern in two weeks time. One has High pressure to the West and a cool but relatively settled Northerly flow across the UK or High pressure to the South as currently with a continuation of the North/South split in conditions.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO this morning is not wonderful again this morning as after a fair start to the weekend the weather goes downhill and eventually cooler again with some rain for all as winds swing from SW to NW by early next week in association with a depression crossing East to the North.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a ridge of High pressure crossing East over the coming days followed by a Westerly flow across the UK, relatively weak in the South. With weak fronts in the airflow some occasional rain is likely almost anywhere but chiefly in the North for much of the time but the South on Sunday.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today shows another variation on the same theme as the rest with rather more rain at times for all at times including the South later as Low pressure and troughs edge across all areas from the West later. Temperatures will be best across the South with the coolest conditions across the North.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows no change to the message already laid down by the other output in maintaining a Westerly feed of wind from the Atlantic delivering some rain at times, mostly but not exclusively to the North with temperatures ranging from near average in the North to average or a little above at times in the South.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM today is not pretty and looks a lot like UKMO at the day 6 stage with an active depression moving East to the North and a cool NW flow sweeping down over the Uk with showers and rain a possibility for all especially in the North and East. This forms a catalyst for pressure then to build North through the Atlantic and keep winds in a cool Northerly quadrant over the UK at the end of the period and though mostly dry for many by then it could end up disappointingly cloudy and chilly in exposure.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last evening begins to show that there are an increasing amount of members who show a build of pressure to the West of the UK in 10 days with a slow trend towards a Northerly flow possible across the UK displacing the rather warm uppers across the South of recent output. As a postscript to this this morning's chart has strengthened that theme..

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The only trend I can detect this morning is that winds could turn more Northerly in the latter stages of the period as pressure possibly shows signs of building North through the Atlantic in 10-14 days time

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.0 pts followed by UKMO at 95.1 pts and GFS at 94.7 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 85.2 pts followed by GFS at 81.7 and UKMO at 81.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 51.5 pts over GFS's 48.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 31.2 pts to 27.8 pts from GFS.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS Once again this morning I find myself reporting on a set of charts which differ wildly day to day beyond day 5 or so but still sing from a pattern of weather which doesn't look like changing any time soon. Pressure remains High to the South of the UK maintaining Europe in a pleasant Summer of weather with very warm or hot conditions locked in down there. For us we continue to lie on the Northern flank of this belt of High pressure which is unable for the most part to ridge North into the UK for any length of time before a Jet stream too far South dislodges any ridges back from where they came a few days later. A typical example of this is this coming few days when pressure builds across the South at least to give some fine and warm conditions for a time before the Atlantic wins back by Sunday and it becomes a case of 'as you were' thereafter. It doesn't mean complete doom and gloom though as there will be some fine and dry weather for all at times and in the South it could be occasionally warm. Then we have to look forward into the longer term projections to see if there are any signs of change there. What I can see is a possibility of it becoming no better for heat seekers as there seems growing confidence between the models that pressure may build North through the Atlantic later next week pulling winds into a Northerly quarter and while this might mean a continuation of quite dry conditions in the South and West winds from the North will peg temperatures back towards normal at best. It's all a case of clutching straws to find any way out of the current locked in pattern so I wouldn't say this change is a definite yet but at the moment I don't see any chance of a UK wide heatwave any time soon as the Jet stream forecast across the North Atlantic continues to look unfavourable so it's a case of pick and choose the short warm and fine periods in the South when they come as they might not last long before the next wave of Atlantic fronts arrive. 

 

Next update from 08:00 Thursday July 9th 2015

[Nick F]

Despite some model differences in detail, the general overall theme looking at H500 is for a mobile and changeable westerly flow off the Atlantic over the coming few weeks, occasional brief ridge thrown up from the SW to warm things up across the south like later this Friday and again next weekend (18th/19th). Rather mundane in my opinion after the excitement of last week's heat and storms, though that's a British summer for you!

 

Have had a more in depth look at the short to medium range in my blog: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6742;sess=

[Winter Cold]

Yes its a shame the excitement has gone. Its always fun when this forum is buzzing and the interesting charts show up!

 

Having looked at this mornings runs then I think the outlook can be described at present as 'continuing very average with no end in sight' which is pretty boring to be honest but completely normal unfortunately.

 

The south always getting a few warmer days thrown in but the north still having a rotten time. Myself in the middle, well around 20c looks about being the best for the forseeable really, as shown by the 0z ensembles:

 

[Weather Boy]

t144 in agreement from UKMO and ECM deep low for the time of year exact position of it not certain

 

 

GFS on the other hand is totally different

 

 

Whilst GFS has the high closer its 2 to 1 in favour of a deep low for the time of year

 

Interesting comparison, Gavin.  Although in terms of weather, GFS v the others could hardly be more different (save for the far NW) they are not poles apart in what they show, namely LP to our north/ NW and HP to the south.  It just goes to demonstrate that relatively small synoptic tweaks can make quite a difference to the weather on the ground.

 

These charts are only six days away.  Quite a divergence for that timescale (as Gibby mentioned) even if roughly on the same page.

 

During the recent hot weather, GFS rather ruled the roost.  Let's hope that means that it will do the same again, even if it is 2 v 1.

 

Whichever is right, though, it does look as if the pattern we have for the foreseeable is westerly flow, mixed at best in the north, periodically bright and warmer down south, but there will also suffer less frequent incidences of unsettled weather and bursts of rain.

[mushymanrob]

Mind you mushy it's an anomoly forecast of below average confidence.

 

maybe, but....

is now being seen in the ecm and gfs @ t240

thats not a good outlook for heat in the heart of summer. yet again a cool northwesterly/northerly looks likely , the same pattern thats been plaguing us since early may.

now thats not a washout, and air quality will be good, feeling very pleasant in the strong sunshine when theres no cloud issues.... but hot it will not be.

in fact, this summer would be remarkable IF we get no more heat, and the only hot spell was a short lived record breaker!

[Man With Beard]

Still huge uncertainty about this low for early next week. As I think I've mentioned every day, GEFS has consistently favoured a warmer option with the low having little impact south of Lancs/Yorks, and down to T144 it's still the same. A few members have the whole of the UK under good weather, and there are quite a few hot options too - 8 out of the 21 members look a little like this:

 

Edited July 8, 2015 by rjbw

[Tamara]

I admit reading across both model related threads and in regional thread posts this morning, I thought I had woken up this morning in summer 2012. With some trepidation, I considered re-checking the data to hand, or least the reliable sources I regularly look at, to make absolutely sure that my own thoughts are based on some (attempted) rational interpretation 

 

As mentioned yesterday, I can certainly understand best of all those furthest north having a jaundiced perspective of this summer so far, albeit the amplified heat went some way north last week.  However, for much of England and Wales at least, especially the further south one is, the reality is that this has been a summer so far that has seen a lot of fine warm weather punctuated by shorter less settled spells.

 

As soon as the weather climbs down from 'something special' its quickly forgotten how much things have changed since a cool and (late) Spring pattern. A pattern that was cool nationwide. Yesterdays and previous days summaries attempted some reasoning and some perspective as to likely on going effects and evolution of the latest synoptics, but it seems to be the appearance of heights over the arctic in summer, which, as much as they are popularly chased in winter, are currently proving to be behind a lot of the (imo overstated) negative perception and doom and gloom of the current outlook. .

 

I think anyone expecting the regular occurrence of sustained heat and tropical style convection in the UK is sure-fire going to end up as disappointed as expecting sustained snow and ice days on the same basis in the winter. Much as I think I said about over 10 days prior to last weeks heatwave when it was becoming clear to me that a warming trend was around the corner that represented a breakaway from the cool pattern of the Spring

 

Such noteworthy weather events as last week always raise the bar of expectation and there is the inevitable 'after the lord mayors show' afterwards. There is of course an obvious contrast to this time last week, but in relation to that 90F + heat this brief cool mid-week blip is artificially magnified as a direct consequence of what it was like 7 days back - but the reality is that it is nothing significant at all. Even some of the hottest summers have featured passages of weather like this, and at times, cooler and more widespreadly so than this, or any of the upcoming changeable and relatively cooler conditions to come

 

I have weather preferences like most all of us, and, personally, am not a fan of oppressive heat so find the 'average' ( overall fairly warm) outlook perfectly pleasant and acceptable.

 

So it could be an awful lot worse, but then I concede that if nothing less than an average expectation of 30C + by day and 18C + by night is the minimum expectation for satisfaction, it is probably as well to not to suggest such a perspective as I acknowledge I will be in a minority

 

Satisfaction, or, dissatisfaction with ongoing synoptics and weather on the ground aside -,at least as far as I am concerned anyway, from a wider perspective the bigger atmospheric pattern shifts and turns have been, and still are compelling in the changes that have happened in the last few weeks and continue to unfold. From that perspective it has made it possible for me to enjoy the anticipation, evolution and passage of that heatwave itself - even though I am not a fan of that type of cloying heat itself.

 

The type of larger scale global ocean/atmosphere triggers we have seen in the last week most ofen bring high impact weather conditions (which includes high temperatures), and the tools available to help see these coming, add enjoyment to the whole process of model watching.

 

In that sense, weather preferences go right out of the window

 

There is no need to repeat any details at all of any latest assessment

 

Yesterdays and previous days assessments remain the same and won't change simply according to intra day model ups and downs ....unless there are larger macro scale factors that crop up to change those expectations and as consequence give reliable enough credence to changes in NWP .

 

I will put up with a mundane average summer for 10 to 15 days and would want to continue to keep an eye on the period beyond about the 22nd for a possible period of wider interest for much larger numbers of people.

 

I totally get that these are London ensembles, and therefore may appear to suggest an IMBY representation, but it is from the south that we will continue to look for further widespread heat, such as the type that will satisfy the majority of readers to these pages.

 

On that basis I won't apologise at all for suggesting that they are really not that bad at all - even though for the time being the best temperatures are to be found in the locality they represent

 

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif

 

Bearing in mind surface temperatures often exceed these in reality in summer, the 20C + benchmark max mean is totally consistent. We would be looking, in the south of England, at a consistent circa 15C benchmark temperature mean for a summer of 2012 ilk. Bearing in mind such a low afternoon daytime mean would still hide the fewer more transitory settled days of 18 to 22C on the surface

 

Little at all to suggest 30C + heat yet in that ensemble set, but a tentative glimmer of another defined upward trend in the extended period perhaps that is an early clue to some further rather more significant heat rather than generally summer average, or, at times quite warm, more especially in the south.

 

For what little it may be worth, timing of this is certainly very plausible around the last week-ish period of July - at least in terms of where my thinking ahead is at this time.

 

Time will tell over the next week to 10 days if this gains traction - but beyond weather preferences, this is more than half the fun and enjoyment of it 

Edited July 8, 2015 by Tamara

[h2005__uk__]

Interesting and informative post  from Tamara.

 

 

Little at all to suggest 30C + heat yet in that ensemble set, but a tentative glimmer of another defined upward trend in the extended period perhaps that is an early clue to some further rather more significant heat rather than generally summer average, or, at times quite warm, more especially in the south.

 

For what little it may be worth, timing of this is certainly very plausible around the last week-ish period of July - at least in terms of where my thinking ahead is at this time.

 

Time will tell over the next week to 10 days if this gains traction - but beyond weather preferences, this is more than half the fun and enjoyment of it 

 

Yes, some runs in 'FI' spiking into the high 20s (or even above 30 in one or two cases) is hopefully a good sign of things to come. Too early to tell of course, but various forecasters (some more reputable than others) have been going for a significant warm-up at the end of the month.

Edited July 8, 2015 by h2005__uk__

[DAVID SNOW]

Hi David,

Both ECMWF and NOAA provide charts for public view but aimed at mainly a subscribed audience. These charts are in a multiple time range and are in early evolution and open to error. The transfer of latent heat with-in the oceans circulation is easier to predict in the shorter time scale rather than seasonal predictions. But understanding of the longer term effect of El Nino cycle on weather forecasting is becoming more relevant with research. IFS charts are providing an advancement towards this evolution.

C

 

Thanks for taking the time to reply C. We will see how the cold anomaly  progresses as the year moves on.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z shows a very nice low res with warm anticyclonic conditions and the next few days look decent, after a cold start tomorrow, good sunny spells and becoming pleasant enough. Friday is the best day, dry, warm and sunny with low to mid 20's celsius but cooler with rain across Scotland. Then we are into a changeable period but pleasantly warm although cooler further north west. Further into FI looks nice and I hope it's something the models can build on. I see no reason why not since the MO update today sounds very reasonable, at least for the south of the UK during the second half of july.

[Captain Shortwave]

The outlook looks pretty flat at the moment, but there are signs around day 10 that we might develop some more significant amplification of the longwave pattern and as such might be able to build high pressure in more strongly towards the UK.

GFS

 

ECM for the same time

 

ECM ens from this morning

At the moment this looks pretty cool, but the chance of a more widespread drier spell developing beyond mid-month, though for the south rainfall looks minimal anyway with rain bands tending to weaken as they cross the UK.

Temperatures on the whole look near normal with the south seeing generally above normal temperatures couples with some potentially very warm days (Friday an example) whilst the north sees temperatures a little below par for the time of year. That said slight shifts north or south of the westerly jet could improve or worsen fortunes over the coming week.

[knocker]

Yes the anomaly at day ten has pushed the trough a little further east and has weak ridging to the west. It has moved towards the ECM and introduced a trough Greenland. This is not a major problem as it develops into a weak area of LP Iceland which could be a tad annoying otherwise in the ext period it's going for a flatter pattern pattern interspersed with weak Azores ridging that trends to remain too far to the SW, Still there are possibilities of moving in the right direction although it's still indicative of a N/S division.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[Frosty.]

Cheers for the charts by the way, they look very nice for southern areas at least.

No problem

As for the next 7-10 days, the north of the UK looks like being coolest and most unsettled whereas central and southern areas become changeable but at least temperatures look more pleasant with more of a tropical maritime influence and generally more in the way of dry weather and sunshine further south. Looking at the end of the Ecm 12z, not a bad finish with a ridge of high pressure building in. Looking further ahead, pleased about the MO extended outlook, sounds like plenty of settled and warm weather is on the way during the second half of july and into early August with the south having potential for hot spells and even the long suffering north west of the UK seeing a change for the better.

[Summer Sun]

Promising end to the ECM ens this evening with the high moving backing in

 

[summer blizzard]

While we can't rule out warmth from high pressure to the west, there's nothing in the operational to really suggest anything really warm. GEM is worst of the bunch..

 

[mushymanrob]

ok... its straw clutching time, .... but ....



the 8-14 day chart is moving in the right direction, suggesting a flatter pattern as the mean upper trough to our east tracks away, a shallow trough off the east coast of america and a weak azores ridge possibly building in towards us? this could perhaps drift towards us, settling things down and giving us a more sustained settled spell , warm, sunny, dry, becoming hot IF the ridge displaces to our east eventually?

i guess im saying that the longwave pattern appears to be tracking east, which would draw the azores high closer to us , over us eventually?

well... i did say its straw clutching, before then theres an autumnal looking low for early next week with more cool weather to follow.

Edited July 9, 2015 by mushymanrob

[knocker]

I notice the label of uninspiring has been placed on this morning's GFS but I find it quite interesting because it's a good example of two runs being completely different and thus the danger of taking too much notice of single runs and also it because it brings depressions formed off the SE US via a route through two HP zones into the UK. Around T180 one of these depressions phases with some LP off of Spain and ends up west of Cornwall at T234 dragging quite warm air from Europe. Won't happen of course but still fascinating and a far cry from the 18z run.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ and weather bell

Edited July 9, 2015 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS this morning continues to show a cooler more unsettled flow from the N/W from around the 12/13th.

Edited July 9, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z shows a marked improvement later next week with the cool unsettled dross shunted away to the north east as high pressure builds in from the southwest and gradually becoming warmer.

Edited July 9, 2015 by Frosty.

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON THURSDAY JULY 9TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure crosses Southern Britain today followed by a trough of Low pressure across Northern areas tonight and tomorrow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with some rain at times but driest in the South with some short warm spells at times.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast continues to show the flow near or across the UK in the coming week before showing signs of weakening and breaking up in situ through the atter part of the second week.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the same pattern as recently through the first week as High pressure remains to the South or SW and Low pressure to the North and NE. The South would see occasional rain but this would be more frequent across the North in a generally West or NW breeze for all. The second week shows High pressure building in the Atlantic and extending a ridge towards Scotland. meanwhile a cut off Low to the SW of the UK turns the South unsettled with rain at times with this extending NE to all by the end of the period.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run looks similar through Week 1 and it too builds High pressure across the Atlantic too in a week or so but on this run it moves it back to what seems it's semi residential home of late to the SW returning conditions to what they are currently by the end of the period.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters at 14 days this morning look universal that the UK will lie in an Atlantic flow of winds from the NW or West in 2 weeks time with occasional rain especially in the North and the best of the dry weather in the South in largely average temperatures.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a Westerly flow over the weekend and start to next week with some rain at times but dry spells too in average temperatures. The run culminates in a broad trough across the UK next Wednesday with rain or showers for all with temperatures held to average levels at best.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show trailing fronts across the UK over the weekend and start to next week with some rain at times in their proximity but drier and brighter phases as they move away at times.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today has a show of building pressure somewhat across the Atlantic next week which on this run holds no benefit for us as a depression to the SW deepens somewhat and moves NE across the UK later with rain and showers for all as it goes before a slow build of pressure from the SW is shown at the end of the period.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows building pressure across the Atlantic next week putting the UK under a cool and potentially showery NW feed as Low pressure remains in situ to the NE.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM today is the most encouraging run this morning as it makes less of the Atlantic High pressure build and quickly turns what building pressure there is back down to the SW of the UK feeding a ridge NE across Southern areas later and returning warm and fne conditions here by the end of the 10 day period.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last evening shows a rather nice picture of a ridge building NE from the Azores across the UK though with various other opions diffusing this issue somewhat too. However, it looks warm whatever option of pressure synoptics is arrived at come the time

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The only trend I can detect this morning is that winds could turn more Northerly in the latter stages of the period as pressure possibly shows signs of building North through the Atlantic in 10-14 days time though this remains not to be a dead cert.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.0 pts followed by UKMO at 95.2 pts and GFS at 94.7 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 85.0 pts followed by GFS at 81.6 and UKMO at 81.6 pts too. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 53.0 pts over GFS's 49.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 31.8 pts to 28.9 pts from GFS.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

MY THOUGHTS Not much to say this morning as there seems little cross model consensus on actual day to day events over the coming two weeks. The first week looks straightforward enough though even then day to day weather events are difficult to pin down for any one place but the general theme remains of rather changeable conditions with some rain at times for all especially in the North while the South continues to see the best chance of staying dry the most and consequently the warmest too. In Week 2 there is a theme of building High pressure through the Atlantic which could result in a pattern change as winds would switch to the North for a time and as a result it could mean a cool phase of weather for all for a time before an improvement as hopefuly the High would eventually move over the UK. However, ECM doesn't like that theory this morning sinking any build of pressure back down to the SW and allowing warm SW'lies to waft over the South later and warming things up here considerably. Threre are also other options shown such as a cut of Low moving NE across the UK after the Atlantic build of pressure which would intensify the resultant unsettled nature of the weather over the UK. So it's a case of pays your money and takes your choice still between the output today as there is very much disagreement on specifics of weather the further out from the present we go and certainly more so than usual. It looks like our typical model watchers phrase that 'more runs are needed' is appropriate again today. 

 

Next update from 08:00 Friday July 10th 2015

[Man With Beard]

A stunning victory for the ECM over the GFS for next week's weather. I provide evidence below!

First are links to the last 4 00Z charts from ECM for next Tuesday (T192, T168, T144 and T120). Some variances but look where the 1020mb pressure line below the UK is - very consistent.

 

Then, the following 4 links are for exactly the same timeframes but from the GFS. Look at how it has moved towards the ECM every day!

 

Sorry, my computer is not allowing me to post images at the moment, but do check out the links I've provided. It's one of the most blatant "model victories" I've seen!

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2015070600/ECM1-192.GIF?00
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2015070700/ECM1-168.GIF?00
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2015070800/ECM1-144.GIF?00
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2015070900/ECM1-120.GIF?00

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2015070600-0-192.png?0
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2015070700-0-168.png?0
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2015070800-0-144.png?0
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2015070900-0-120.png?0

Edited July 9, 2015 by rjbw

[knocker]

Looking this morning's GEFs and ECM anomalies doesn't move us must further forward vis the evolution. By the 19th the ECM has the trough Scandinavia (closer than the GEFS) and more pronounced ridging to the west although both agree on the trough Greenland which may, along with position of the trough to the east, dictate the future evolution.

 

At day ten there is flat westerly flow with the Azores ridge just to the SW but by the 24th both have moved the Greenland trough east orientated N/S over the UK with the ECM being slightly more bullish and would perhaps curtail too much influence from the Azores high pressure. I still feel there is much uncertainty wrapped up in all this.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

[Swave Snow]

A stunning victory for the ECM over the GFS for next week's weather. I provide evidence below!

First are links to the last 4 00Z charts from ECM for next Tuesday (T192, T168, T144 and T120). Some variances but look where the 1020mb pressure line below the UK is - very consistent.

 

Then, the following 4 links are for exactly the same timeframes but from the GFS. Look at how it has moved towards the ECM every day!

 

Sorry, my computer is not allowing me to post images at the moment, but do check out the links I've provided. It's one of the most blatant "model victories" I've seen!

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2015070600/ECM1-192.GIF?00

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2015070700/ECM1-168.GIF?00

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2015070800/ECM1-144.GIF?00

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2015070900/ECM1-120.GIF?00

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2015070600-0-192.png?0

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2015070700-0-168.png?0

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2015070800-0-144.png?0

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2015070900-0-120.png?0

 

 

 

 

Actually from the links you posted it looks like the Victory Belongs to the GFS