Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->

[Gael_Force]

That chart is showing 6c inland in CS England at 08.00 on Thursday morning after the sun will have been up for 3 hours? Therefore how chilly might it be at 05.00!? I cannot see that being accurate at all, if 6c does occur it will be at sunrise and will surely have risen well into double figures by the chart timescale!

Firstly, the local time on the chart is French time - when Sylvain provided the UK charts, he must have missed changing the local time accordingly.

Second, the minimum temps charts are for all the night period. Better to look at the regular temp ones for 03Z (4am in UK summer).

 

[William of Walworth]

That 'cold shot' should be a shortlived one anyway, even in Scotland.

[carinthian]

There will only be Frosts in sheltered Highland Glens Thursday morning, And they will be very short lived. Certainly not a 'rarity' Nor is a sprinkling on the highest Peaks during the Summer months. Nice to see in the output all the same..

I have seen some snow on the high peak in early June and even played cricket in a snow shower above Macclesfied in the first week of June. However, I have never seen any in July or experienced a frost for this time of the year. Even at an elevation of 1500m in Austria , a frost in July would be a rare feature, although it can snow at anytime of the year, especially above 2000m.

C

[Northernlights]

I have seen some snow on the high peak in early June and even played cricket in a snow shower above Macclesfied in the first week of June. However, I have never seen any in July or experienced a frost for this time of the year. Even at an elevation of 1500m in Austria , a frost in July would be a rare feature, although it can snow at anytime of the year, especially above 2000m.

C

In almost 50 years of being a keen weather observer I think frost of any kind is very rare in July even up here.not so in  late August when it helps to ripen the crop. Most crops are still up to 2 weeks behind up here in spite of last weeks heat and in Orkney there has been literally no spring with fields awash with tractors and trailers bogged down trying to harvest very short grass. Its also very wet here  now with lots of hay  cut and now rotting in the fields.  If we get enough of a dusting on the tops tomorrow to be visible then I would say that  too was very unusual. I am still of the opinion that the temperature of the North Atlantic is responsible and that we are in for a very long winter if it does not warm up by the end of the summer .

[summer blizzard]

UKMO has low pressure solidly in charge but better in the south at day 6.

 

GEM goes warm at day 9-10.

 

GFS is cool through day 10.

[Frosty.]

The GEM 00z showed a warm settled outlook next week and the 12z is heading the same way, albeit a little slower but the end result is the same with high pressure becoming more of a dominant feature.

[BlueHedgehog074]

An overview of the next three days according to the new 12Z GFS run.

Charts used for outlook: UK Precipitation Charts; Height 500hPa + Sea Level Pressure; UK Min/Max Temperature and the UKMO FAX.

Wednesday - The Low Pressure system over Northern UK that has brought some sunshine and showers to places will drift Eastwards towards Scandinavia tomorrow. This will turn the Westerly flow over the UK into a cool North-Westerly flow, most especially towards Northern areas where temperatures will be on the chilly side, with blustery showers and longer spells of rain continuing for places. South-Western areas will tend to become drier and brighter as a ridge of High Pressure towards the South-West of the UK gobbles up some of the rain and showers. In sunny spells, and away from showers, temperatures could reach up to 20*C in the South and South-East.

Wednesday night/Thursday morning - Showers or longer spells of rain look to become increasingly confined to the North-East of the UK, as the ridge of High Pressure towards South-Western UK draws in closer. A chilly night in store for most places, especially under clear skies and light winds, with most places seeing temperatures in single digits. Maybe cold enough for some light frosts in sheltered areas to the North and North-West, and over high-ground.

Thursday - This day should see the ridge of High Pressure move Eastwards over the UK with many places seeing some dry and bright weather. The odd shower could spill over the top of the High Pressure system towards the North of the UK, and there is likely to be some rain brushing North-Eastwards (via a Warm Front) on the Western side of Ireland, otherwise most places having a rain-free day. Cool, with temperature just into double digits in the North-West of the UK. Warmer in the South with some odd spots in the far South possibility reaching 22*C. Maybe even the odd isolated 23*C or 24*C.

Thursday night/Friday morning - Over the UK, the ridge of High Pressure will transfer East towards Northern France, but still be influential enough to keep most of Southern and Eastern areas dry and clear. It will be another chilly night, although a little less cooler compared to Wednesday night. Ireland will remain milder with temperatures just into double digits with the Warm Front, as indicated in the FAX chart below, moving North-East towards Western Scotland. Some rain over that part.

Friday - The Warm Front will clear North of Scotland, but could remain cloudy towards some North-Western spots, particularly in the far North-West of the British Isles, with the odd bit of showery drizzle or light rain. Towards the West of Ireland, a Cold Front lies in its wake. Everywhere else should see dry day with some good sunny spells, particularly towards the South-East. It will be very warm, too, thanks to the ridge of High Pressure to the East of the UK drawing up warm air from the South. As Frosty mentioned in one of his earlier posts, certainly a chance for Eastern, Central (Midlands) and Southern areas to reach the magic 25*C mark - perhaps a degree or two higher in some urban areas towards the South-East or East.

Friday night/Saturday morning - The advancing Atlantic Low to the West of the UK will bring a spell of rain Eastwards through the British Isles (the Cold Front), although some Southern and South-Eastern parts of the UK could remain dry. This will introduce some cooler, fresher, air into Western UK areas. Milder, mid-teen, temperatures clinging on over Eastern areas of the UK

Once the front clears to the East, this could lead to some sunshine and showers on Saturday (although it does start to get into the range where things could change a bit)...

Overall, some fairly ordinary Summer weather in store for places. . Although admittedly, with the best of the warmest and less unsettled conditions the further South-East you go.

Edited July 7, 2015 by DiagonalRedLine

[Man With Beard]

The stand-off between GFS and ECM goes on - it's been like this for two days now - GFS wants a decent start to next week with a ridge from the Azores High, whilst ECM wants a flatter, more unsettled pattern:

 

 

 

Interesting ridge of High Pressure building in the Atlantic at T144 - is this the beginning of a mid-Atlantic ridge?

[h2005__uk__]

 

 is this the beginning of a mid-Atlantic ridge?

 

What would that mean in terms of weather?

[knocker]

The GEFS anomalies tonight continue the theme they and the ECM have been playing with for a while and that is moving the Atlantic trough east and building pressure from the W/SW. The EC32 is also thinking along these lines. IMO the key player here two or three weeks down the line is the position, and orientation of the upper trough. At the moments it seems to vacillate between over the UK and Scandinavia. Key because where this settles down rather dictates whether unsettled NW type weather is the order of the day or allows more pressure build up from the SW and a more stable regime.

 

In the meantime a continuation of the fluid upper flow but signs of ridging beginning of next week but the timing of this could easily alter.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited July 7, 2015 by knocker

[Methuselah]

What would that mean in terms of weather?

A mish-mash of thundery showers and cloudy NWerly driechness?

[knocker]

To my untutored eye the NOAA 8-14 isn't a million miles away from the GEFS .

Edited July 7, 2015 by knocker

[DAVID SNOW]

To my untutored eye the NOAA 8-14 isn't a million miles away from the GEFS .

 

Nothing overly warm indicated by that chart that's for sure!

[carinthian]

In almost 50 years of being a keen weather observer I think frost of any kind is very rare in July even up here.not so in  late August when it helps to ripen the crop. Most crops are still up to 2 weeks behind up here in spite of last weeks heat and in Orkney there has been literally no spring with fields awash with tractors and trailers bogged down trying to harvest very short grass. Its also very wet here  now with lots of hay  cut and now rotting in the fields.  If we get enough of a dusting on the tops tomorrow to be visible then I would say that  too was very unusual. I am still of the opinion that the temperature of the North Atlantic is responsible and that we are in for a very long winter if it does not warm up by the end of the summer .

Northern Lights, confirms what a friend of mine reported about the Orkney Islands. The locals are thoroughly depressed with the amount of rain, wind and low temperatures. Time for warmth now ticking away. Certainly the present El Nino strength would point to a hard winter up there this coming winter, although, it sounds winter has never gone away this year so far in the North mainland and the Islands.

C

[DAVID SNOW]

Northern Lights, confirms what a friend of mine reported about the Orkney Islands. The locals are thoroughly depressed with the amount of rain, wind and low temperatures. Time for warmth now ticking away. Certainly the present El Nino strength would point to a hard winter up there this coming winter, although, it sounds winter has never gone away this year so far in the North mainland and the Islands.

C

 

Hello C ; do you know of any models predicting the north Atlantic sst   for later on in the year?

[mushymanrob]

To my untutored eye the NOAA 8-14 isn't a million miles away from the GEFS .

.... And thats not a good thing.

[Scorcher]

Overall not a great outlook tonight from the main models in terms of warm summery weather for most of the UK. However the one encouraging sign I have noticed is the potential erosion of heights over Greenland which is shown up by both the ECM and GFS ops as the runs progress. Fingers crossed that this begins to happen as it could enhance our long term prospects of more settled conditions.

[knocker]

.... And thats not a good thing.

 

Not particularly. For what it's worth the non detailed EC32 out for the month was generally below average temps with a few warm interludes for England.

 

Tonight's ECM isn't in agreement with the GEFS with sharper ridging in the Atlantic and aother trough to the west.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[knocker]

A very brief overview of this morning's GFS as it has a familiar ring to it as not very encouraging.

 

The whole run is mobile with the movement north/south (not very far north I'm afraid) of the warm/cold air boundary dominated by the interplay between depressions originating Canada and ridging from the Azores  Thus temperatures varying around the norm but with periods of temps significantly below the norm in the north, which means of course particularly Scotland. The usual caveat applies . This chart sums up what it's been like for many with this continuing NW/SE divide,

Chart weatherbell

 

Edited July 8, 2015 by knocker

[knocker]

On the other side of the coin temps continue to be be way above average in Spain and SE France. Great care required if you are down those parts on holiday

Chart weatherbell

Edited July 8, 2015 by knocker

[mushymanrob]

On the other side of the coin temps continue to be be way above average in Spain and SE France. Great care required if you down those parts on holiday

Chart weatherbell

 

hopefully we can tap into that heat again, but i fear itll only be another short lived blast.

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS this morning continues with a N/W - S/E split, With some pretty mobile weather for the far North from the N/W around the 15th.

Edited July 8, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[knocker]

hopefully we can tap into that heat again, but i fear itll only be another short lived blast.

 

I'm not optimistic but then what do I know. Looking the anomaly the bad news is this blasted upper trough

[Summer Sun]

t144 in agreement from UKMO and ECM deep low for the time of year exact position of it not certain

 

 

GFS on the other hand is totally different

 

 

Whilst GFS has the high closer its 2 to 1 in favour of a deep low for the time of year

[carinthian]

Hello C ; do you know of any models predicting the north Atlantic sst   for later on in the year?

Hi David,

Both ECMWF and NOAA provide charts for public view but aimed at mainly a subscribed audience. These charts are in a multiple time range and are in early evolution and open to error. The transfer of latent heat with-in the oceans circulation is easier to predict in the shorter time scale rather than seasonal predictions. But understanding of the longer term effect of El Nino cycle on weather forecasting is becoming more relevant with research. IFS charts are providing an advancement towards this evolution.

C